The Hare
Mare
Tough day for my speed. you have done well to get lots of winners and places in your rankings.
Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
The Hare
Mare
Saw the timed questions on Racing UK youtube from Sunday and they had a discussion on the greatest horse in the world - Ka Ying Rising. Though oddly it is only 5th on official ratings with Longines. Or third on this one copied from the internet...behind the other Hong Kong star.
Apparently now off to Australia for a race called Everest, not well up on Australian racing but they are usually pretty hot in sprints over here. So that will be a great guide to how good he is.
Link here
Apparently now off to Australia for a race called Everest, not well up on Australian racing but they are usually pretty hot in sprints over here. So that will be a great guide to how good he is.
Link here
Rank | Horse | Rating | Trained |
1 | FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) | 128 | JPN |
2 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR (IRE) | 127 | HK |
3 | KA YING RISING (NZ) | 124 | HK |
3 | WHITE ABARRIO (USA) | 124 | USA |
5 | LOCKED (USA) | 123 | USA |
ARAZI91
Mare
That listing looks a bit outdated
The Hare - here is the most up to date list but will not include any races run after 7th September.
Sprinters generally are undersold by official handicapping bodies and have been for a long time though that's for another thread.
Yes Australia is well known for it's quality in the sprinting division although last couple of years definitely look much of a muchness TBH with no real dominating horse, so makes sense for KYR to go for the fantastic prize money on offer at Randwick in The Everest especially with a limited field size of 12. It's a one off type race with a very unusual entry system in that 12 slots are sold at $700,000 each and the "slot holder" then has the right to race, lease, contract or share a starter, or can even sell their place in the gate. Because of only the 12 starters the draw and luck within the run has less of an effect as it does with other comparable top class sprint races. Randwick's straight course is a relatively "fair" track anyway. The field for the race is declared once all slot holders have confirmed their runners, which must be done by Tuesday 10am on race week. The barrier draw is conducted on the Tuesday prior to race-day. This year's Everest will be run on the 14th October.
On form at least KYR must have a strong chance and he is already as short as under $2 with some of the Aus. books.
Read that Timeform have him as the best horse on the planet at 135 - even going with official figures up there, KYR is 6lbs clear of any other sprinter, and only 2 other sprinters globally have merited a 120 rating this season, with those 2 being French (not particularly noted for a strong sprinting division)
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The Hare
Mare
Many thanks for the information
ARAZI91 . Yes just took the ratings from the front page of the Longines site I was directed to, your list matched the ones on Luck show and as you say Timeform top rated. The times he does are always fast and must have the best 3 times at least over the 1200 at Sha Tin for all time?
ARAZI91 . Yes just took the ratings from the front page of the Longines site I was directed to, your list matched the ones on Luck show and as you say Timeform top rated. The times he does are always fast and must have the best 3 times at least over the 1200 at Sha Tin for all time?
La Cressonnière
Filly
HV 2025/09/17 - Not easy GOOD LUCK ALL ! 
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 |
| MODEST GENTLEMAN | KNOW AT HEART | KINGLY DEMEANOR | ANOTHER ZONDA | POWER SUMMIT | VULCANUS | CANDLELIGHT DINNER | JUMBO LEGEND |
| HAPPY TANGO | FOREVER FOLKS | HONEST WITNESS | ACE POWER | HEALTHY HEALTHY | STEPS AHEAD | ||
| PERFECT PAIRING | NEW POWER | THE PERFECT MATCH | WINGS OF WAR | WOODFIRE BRO | |||
| FIREFOOT | MASTER CHAMPION | KING LOTUS | SUPERB CAPITALIST | BRAVEHEARTS | |||
| ATOMIC BEAUTY | EXCEED THE WISH | GENIUS BABY | FRIENDS OF SHAJING | LO RIDER |
La Cressonnière
Filly
SHA TIN 21/09/2025 - Change a lot of things. Only two races first try. Tactical command R10 it s a SR from HV ... Perhaps we should do without
| R3 | R10 |
| NOBLE FANS | LUCKY MY WAY |
| ELEGANT LIFE | TACTICAL COMMAND |
| PERIDOT | LIGHT YEARS GLORY |
| AWESOME TREASURE | SUPER LEGENDS |
| LO PAN SPIRIT | |
| KEMPES |
I am trying a lot of things to find the most predictive final rating, I have now any combination of ratings available to me , like all individual sections, any combination of sections, overall time , ability, barrier trials, just trying to establish the most important factors for predictive ratings.
Even though final time is a factor in all my section ratings and they are all on the same scale and calibrated I found that most sections in isolation are not predictive of future potential except the final 400m that I now believe is the single most important aspect of a horses time performance.
When I used all individual sections I found say horse that had run 1200m with NW ratings of 85 , 75 , 68 , even though the 85 has the overall time factored in it proved next to useless as a predictive rating.
At the moment my thinking is the final 400m and the average of sections from start to 400m might be more useful for predicting , or maybe just the overall speed rating and the final 400m.
I think the experimenting could go on forever, so far this season I think my overall speed ratings have not been very good, better with sectional ratings included, but still a bit behind ability ratings.
Now at the point after a few years tinkering that feel have everything as perfect as I can get it , just not sure if any time or section ratings will match a decent ability rating.
Even recently i made a new sheet for this season posted a screenshot on here and realised i had copied formulae incorrectly.
Attached for anyone interested full ratings for last season and this season so far.
No errors now !
Anything NW is a figure with no weight
Anything with TF is a rating on the HKJC scale with weight element
EFF is how efficient horse ran
POSP is the potential position the horse could have finished
will try to update as season goes on
edit can't attach and post sheet , no formulae in the sheet and is about 4200kb with potential to be around 8000kb if i update, bit frustrating, anyone know the limit ?
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Attached for anyone interested full ratings for last season and this season so far.
No errors now !
Anything NW is a figure with no weight more on a Mordin/Beyer type scale but not using same methods and can be compared directly with each other.
Anything with TF is a rating on the HKJC scale with weight element and can be compared directly with each other
EFF is how efficient horse ran
POSP is the potential position the horse could have finished
ALLGA going allowance for meeting (or occasionally part of a meeting if going is judged to have changed)
INDGA going allowance for individual race
I currently have a separate GA for ST1000m because it doesn't behave consistently and yet to work out fully why.
will try to update as season goes on if anyone interested in HK ratings
attached after splitting file in half.
ratings are dynamic so bit frustrating for future updates that unable post complete file
No errors now !
Anything NW is a figure with no weight more on a Mordin/Beyer type scale but not using same methods and can be compared directly with each other.
Anything with TF is a rating on the HKJC scale with weight element and can be compared directly with each other
EFF is how efficient horse ran
POSP is the potential position the horse could have finished
ALLGA going allowance for meeting (or occasionally part of a meeting if going is judged to have changed)
INDGA going allowance for individual race
I currently have a separate GA for ST1000m because it doesn't behave consistently and yet to work out fully why.
will try to update as season goes on if anyone interested in HK ratings
attached after splitting file in half.
ratings are dynamic so bit frustrating for future updates that unable post complete file
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ARAZI91
Mare
O Outlander - Could you add the HKJC official rating that each horse ran off to the files mate ??
no problem
ARAZI91 HKR run off HKJC official rating ( estimates for international horses, usually international rating +6 to bring in line with HKR and Griffin races)
CURRENT is current HKJC rating ( blank if no longer in training)
ARAZI91
Mare
O Outlander - Thank you mateno problem
HKR run off HKJC official rating ( estimates for international horses, usually international rating +6 to bring in line with HKR and Griffin races)
CURRENT is current HKJC rating ( blank if no longer in training)
much appreciated
pawras
Stallion
are the ORs different to those shown on the RP site for HK races?no problem
HKR run off HKJC official rating ( estimates for international horses, usually international rating +6 to bring in line with HKR and Griffin races)
CURRENT is current HKJC rating ( blank if no longer in training)
La Cressonnière
Filly
File very interesting and comprehensive. I will integrate it, if you agree, into a machine learning model with the following objectives:no problem
HKR run off HKJC official rating ( estimates for international horses, usually international rating +6 to bring in line with HKR and Griffin races)
CURRENT is current HKJC rating ( blank if no longer in training)
1/ Identify which variables have the most importance.
2/ See if it’s possible to create a model with a satisfactory prediction rate.
First, I want to make sure I have correctly understood the meaning of the column headers.
| SPDNW : SPEED RATING not weight ajusted SSNW : Sections rating not weight ajusted
|
I don’t think so , I use the data compiled by
The Hare , should be as RP except international horses and griffins as mentioned.Will get back to you with proper explanations, busy out with the dog etc until later, must mention though I don’t know anything about machine learning, but all my ratings are dynamic so they all change with new information, for some reason this forum won’t accept the file size and I have to split into 2 , eventually I will have to split into 3. Ideally I would post the whole file every time I update results in one file with all the dynamically updated ratings for anyone interested in improving the final predictions.
La Cressonnière
Filly
Just one more thing are they already ground ajusted ?