DuckandDive
Mare
Started how he left off last season. Add in the mix that Hugh Bowman was top jockey @ the Ascot Shergar cup this year, could be worth tweaking the algo's this season.
Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
Started how he left off last season. Add in the mix that Hugh Bowman was top jockey @ the Ascot Shergar cup this year, could be worth tweaking the algo's this season.
Yes If I had one criticism (which they don’t deserve), I wish they had a reading taken during the race displayed on the results page , it would fascinate me to look at the times and cross reference with rainfall and soil moisture and wind reading to see if and correlations.
I took a few myself for the first 4 races and the last race, but walking the dog when the other races were on, interesting how much the wind change and how in different speed and directions at different points on the course at the same time.
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La Cressonnière
Filly
HV 2025/09/10 => Hope better fortune than last sunday 
| R1 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 |
| RAGNARR | MIGHTY STEED BB | HIGHLAND RAHY | NORTHERN BEAST LS | BIENVENUE | SOVEREIGN FUND NB |
| WOODFIRE CHAMP | THE AUSPICIOUS | HARMONY GALAXY | AMAZING RUN | GLORY B | MONARCH COUNTY |
| LUCKY GENERATIONS | PRINCE ALEX | S J TOURBILLON | CHAIN OF GOLD | CHARMING BABE | STORMING DRAGON |
| DAN ATTACK | SETANTA | WROTE A NEW PAGE | SUPER UNICORN | FLYING WROTE | REGAL GEM |
| GLORIOUS EXPERT | TAKE ACTION | EMBRACES | STURDY RUBY | LUCKY SAM GOR | THRIVING BROTHERS |
Trying out a new experiment with sectional upgrades for HK, post on here but not betting all of them until I get proof it’s a worthwhile angle.
Looking for value horse that sectional times suggest could have finished in a better position in recent races.
r2 Harry’s Hero last 5 finishing positions 5 2 5 5 6 Potentially my ratings have 4 1 3 1 3 clearly if idea any use at all then horse would be rated much higher than he is currently.
r3 Happy Boys full record reads 12 14 8 10 3 5 , my ratings have 12 12 8 9 2 1 , Purton got on last time when 5th and according to sections could have won, obvious subtle improvement and dropped 2lb since runs that suggest a second place and a win were possible.
r4 Setanta last 3 runs 5 6 4 and dropped 6 lbs, my sectional ranks suggest 4 1 2. If that had transpired horse would have gone up about 7lb +.
From observations he is a horse that promises more than he delivers.
r7 Run Run Smart much less obvious last 5 runs 10 6 9 8 8 . Potentially 9 2 2 8 5, like I say bit of a stretch but has dropped 10lb since the first of those potential second placings 4lto.
will stick with the idea for a while see if anything in it.
Full disclosure I personally have bet Happy Boys but not others, just in experimental stage atm.
Looking for value horse that sectional times suggest could have finished in a better position in recent races.
r2 Harry’s Hero last 5 finishing positions 5 2 5 5 6 Potentially my ratings have 4 1 3 1 3 clearly if idea any use at all then horse would be rated much higher than he is currently.
r3 Happy Boys full record reads 12 14 8 10 3 5 , my ratings have 12 12 8 9 2 1 , Purton got on last time when 5th and according to sections could have won, obvious subtle improvement and dropped 2lb since runs that suggest a second place and a win were possible.
r4 Setanta last 3 runs 5 6 4 and dropped 6 lbs, my sectional ranks suggest 4 1 2. If that had transpired horse would have gone up about 7lb +.
From observations he is a horse that promises more than he delivers.
r7 Run Run Smart much less obvious last 5 runs 10 6 9 8 8 . Potentially 9 2 2 8 5, like I say bit of a stretch but has dropped 10lb since the first of those potential second placings 4lto.
will stick with the idea for a while see if anything in it.
Full disclosure I personally have bet Happy Boys but not others, just in experimental stage atm.
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The Hare
Mare
Good call, 3 winners for Mr Bowman, certainly up there with Purton and McDonald, when he is riding, as the top 3 jockeys in Hong Kong.
The Hare
Mare
Would be interesting as you say if they get round to recording the figures for each race, interesting that the wind is quite a bit more (or less) at the different turns.
La Cressonnière
Filly
R8 i have a good rating for GOOD FORTUNE. i wonder if the problem comes from last week weather ...
The Hare
Mare
Hi
La Cressonnière for that meeting the going changed after the race GOOD FORTUNE ran from Good to Good to Yielding but then back to Good after 2 races. On my times I split the first 6 with that race the horse ran in nothing exceptional on my times compared to the other 6, 4th best rating oof them all. I would check your ratings and if correct then maybe a good bet.Not done ratings for this sunday yet but I had the race Good Fortune ran in as comfortably the fastest v expectation on 07/09Hi
DuckandDive
Mare
When first get data for a course takes couple of hours to knock up speed ratings, but realising needing calibrating to HK scale and working out how to rate sections that account for the final time etc , couple of years of occasional tweaking to get to anything I was remotely satisfied with.
DuckandDive
Mare
You'll be taking on the likes of Patrick Veitch before you know it....unless of course...you are P.V?.....
The Hare
Mare
Top work as ever O Outlander . I really need to get a set of sectional ratings together!
La Cressonnière
Filly
SHA TIN 2025/09/14 -
| R4 | R5 | R6 | R8 | R10 |
| RAGING RAPIDS | FORERUNNER | GROOVY FEELING | GOOD FORTUNE | MASTER OF ALL |
| BETTER AND BETTER | CELTIC TIMES | SEA EMERALD | TOURBILLON GOLFER | JOY OF SPRING |
| SUGAR BALL | MAX QUE | ARGENTO OCEAN | BLUE BARON | SUPERB KID |
| ROMAN CROWN | AEROINVINCIBLE | HOT AIR BALLON | ||
| STRATHPEFFER | JUBILANT WINNER |
La Cressonnière
Filly
Hi,
Does anyone compile the penetrometer index in their database? I would like to know if it is possible to establish a reliable going allowance in relation to the penetrometer index.
Thanks
Does anyone compile the penetrometer index in their database? I would like to know if it is possible to establish a reliable going allowance in relation to the penetrometer index.
Thanks
Ha ha , i hardly bet, just a hobby playing with the data, probably do better with a pin.
Basically they have 2 reading it’s virtually always 2.71 for good to firm or 2.72 for good.
if the whole range of good is reading 2.72 then that’s not gonna help much, they also take a reading in the morning and 1 hour before first race.
If they had 3 decimal places like 2.713, 2.717 etc and took a reading before every race then maybe it would be worth studying, but what is currently offered is no more useful than the actual going description for evaluating going allowances.
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