• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    AR

Hong Kong Speed Figures

ARAZI91 said:
Very interesting Chesham Chesham - also think "The GAP" store and their leisure wear come out very high on Pat's algorithms.
Nick Luck cracked a wee joke and i almost saw a few wrinkles underneath Pat's botoxed shiny forehead.
:)
Notice that nobody ever eats those plates of pastries and croissants that Nick Luck offers up every Sunday. I mean there is six on each plate there and you wouldn't exactly call them "own brand". I can see chocolate chip.
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Derek Thompson is the only person I have seen eat them, think he wanted to take them all for his journey home!
 
ARAZI91 said:
O Outlander - thanks mate - (y)Interesting quotes about the horses weight in there from Hayes, so the 1154 he ran off last time was probably a slight concern and a little test for the horse - Hayes is quoted as wondering (if he hadn't had run him) - "Is he too heavy?" - obviously made no difference whatsoever as he's just a freak - no doubt about it and very interesting that he's slightly heavier now and probably will run off a similar weight as last time once the effects of travel and stuff are accounted for. To me that is venturing into the area of "power" especially with sprinters.
Think your right mate he's "primed" all right, hope everything goes A1 for connections. Could be the easiest winning of $15 mill you'll ever see.
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Certainly a new adventure ARAZI91 ARAZI91 , excellent article on his weight O Outlander Lifetime career:

1758629838110.png
 
La Cressonnière said:
R5 - ML with O Outlander performance selected rows - No apprentice weight ajustement
PACKING PHOENIX the clear favorite, but he has never raced. Could one PHOENIX be hiding another ???
RISING PHOENIX
CALIFORNIA BANNER
SPICY STANDARD
CALIFORNIA BAY
THUNDER BLINK
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The favourite Packing Phoenix has very good barrier trial ratings 1-1-1-1 unbeaten 4 trials and potential to be well in off newcomers rating with Purton booked so would be no surprise to see him well fancied.
 
It's the first pattern race of the season with the 0935 Sha Tin Celebration Cup (Group 3 Handicap) (3yo+) (Course C+3) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £241975.31

Had a look at the trial race stats, it's not a race that attracts runners coming from UK/IRE pattern races


1759038019970.png

Re my online ratings I fancy 3 but not strongly, Happy Together, Light Years Charm (AUS), Packing Hermod (AUS), but I'm wary of how current 2.5 fav My Wish shows up in the trial race stats even though I don't fancy it that much with my ratings
 
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pawras said:
It's the first pattern race of the season with the 0935 Sha Tin Celebration Cup (Group 3 Handicap) (3yo+) (Course C+3) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £241975.31

Had a look at the trial race stats, it's not a race that attracts runners coming from UK/IRE pattern races


View attachment 160486

Re my online ratings I fancy 3 but not strongly, Happy Together, Light Years Charm (AUS), Packing Hermod (AUS), but I'm wary of how current 2.5 fav My Wish shows up in the trial race stats even though I don't fancy it that much with my ratings
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Money talked there, My Wish won after having to wait for a gap to go to the front. It went down to 1.83 on the BF sportsbook, 2.25 on the tote and in the end.

Best I got was 3rd with big priced Happy Together and 4th with Packing Hermod
 
pawras said:
I like the way hong kong jockey club publish the results on their website, I think the running position photos are quite interesting

Results - Racing Information - Horse Racing - The Hong Kong Jockey Club

racing.hkjc.com racing.hkjc.com
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Hello pawras pawras . Thanks for the contribution and assessment of the Group 3 race.

These Group races are a little odd really, they only involve local horses and are still handicaps as the non Group races in Hong Kong all are. So really just a Group 3 race in name I suppose. There are quite a few of these races over the season.

This the form for My Wish, seemingly improving and back in trip must have appealed to the bettors.

The running positions you mention I have added to my sheets though mine include the 200m splits for the last 800m so not perfect as I have just used a formula to calculate the times at that point which are sometimes equal, whereas the HKJC read thm off the photos. Perhaps should do this just for the 400m splits as per HKJC and copy from results?

1759154604083.png
 
Results from yesterday and card for National Day meeting on Wednesday. My ratinfs still not up to date apart from the new non weight ratings. I thought they were performing really badly but realised I had an error in the calculation of rankings of the ratings which is now corrected and they look a lot better!
 

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The Hare said:
Hello pawras pawras . Thanks for the contribution and assessment of the Group 3 race.

These Group races are a little odd really, they only involve local horses and are still handicaps as the non Group races in Hong Kong all are. So really just a Group 3 race in name I suppose. There are quite a few of these races over the season.

This the form for My Wish, seemingly improving and back in trip must have appealed to the bettors.

The running positions you mention I have added to my sheets though mine include the 200m splits for the last 800m so not perfect as I have just used a formula to calculate the times at that point which are sometimes equal, whereas the HKJC read thm off the photos. Perhaps should do this just for the 400m splits as per HKJC and copy from results?

View attachment 160537
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You're right the pattern races in Hong Kong largely feature runners coming from other HK races, but there are some exceptions.
I.e. I've cross referenced the 35 or so HK pattern races against the thousand+ I have set up for UK/IRE/FR and there some where runners then head over to HK, some successfully and the majority very much not.

A very much not are runners going from the Ascot King Charles III Flat Stakes or York Nunthorpe Flat Stakes, to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Sprint Flat Stakes 6f Group1, between the 2 UK races 56 have tried since 2017 and none have won.

However re the Epsom Coronation Cup Flat Stakes, since 2017 22 runners have gone from there to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Vase Flat Stakes 1m 4f Group1, and 11 have won or placed.
 
pawras said:
You're right the pattern races in Hong Kong largely feature runners coming from other HK races, but there are some exceptions.
I.e. I've cross referenced the 35 or so HK pattern races against the thousand+ I have set up for UK/IRE/FR and there some where runners then head over to HK, some successfully and the majority very much not.

A very much not are runners going from the Ascot King Charles III Flat Stakes or York Nunthorpe Flat Stakes, to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Sprint Flat Stakes 6f Group1, between the 2 UK races 56 have tried since 2017 and none have won.

However re the Epsom Coronation Cup Flat Stakes, since 2017 22 runners have gone from there to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Vase Flat Stakes 1m 4f Group1, and 11 have won or placed.
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Hello pawras pawras sorry I didn't make it clear. I was meaning the Group 3 races. Some of them are handicaps like the lower level races in Hong Kong. They are restricted to local horses only and weights are not equal like most Group races. Well, equal other than penalties for past Group wins. The range yesterday from 135 to 116, often there are horses well out of the handicap in these races. Then the 2 claimers in the race were unable to claim their 2 pound claims. Is there anywhere lese that has Group 3 handicap racing?

Some of the Group 3 races are open to all and level weights as are the higher classes which you mention. Your site and data are excellent and as you mention connections between races are an excellent angle on Group racing.
 
Here are the Hong Kong races I have set up in my target/trial race analysis system which I have cross referenced against each other and the 1000+ UK/IRE/FR races I have set up

1759212110842.png
 
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The Hare said:
Hello pawras pawras sorry I didn't make it clear. I was meaning the Group 3 races. Some of them are handicaps like the lower level races in Hong Kong. They are restricted to local horses only and weights are not equal like most Group races. Well, equal other than penalties for past Group wins. The range yesterday from 135 to 116, often there are horses well out of the handicap in these races. Then the 2 claimers in the race were unable to claim their 2 pound claims. Is there anywhere lese that has Group 3 handicap racing?
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The Hare The Hare - in the US & Australia they have similarly termed "handicap" races at even higher than Group/Grade 3 level but they are not "true" handicaps and remain only in name which comes from tradition. WFA and previous Group/Grade Wins define the weight differentials NOT ability. Others like The Melbourne Cup remains a true handicap but is seen in Aus as a G1 race, think one or two of the American races are run like that too where ability defines the weights.
Strictly speaking on the other hand, from a ratings perspective some heritage handicaps we run over here have become at least "Group 3" level - the Ebor for example has a ratings range that easily slots into that category but is still retained as a Class 2 - lowest rated horse in this year's Ebor was a 98 with the highest 108 and the average would correlate to a fair proportion of G3 races.
 
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SHA TIN 2025/10/01 O Outlander +> ML Probality to finish in the 3 in order by race
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10
CASHISCASHHANDSOME BOMBYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGDO YOUR PARTFOREVER FOLKSRAGING RAPIDSWUNDERBARHONG LOK GOLFHAROLD WINLUCKY MY WAY
WINDICATOR FAMILYSEA EMERALDNOBLE DELUXEREWARDING TWINKLECAN'T GO WONGVICTORY CHAMPIONBABY CRYSTALHUGE WAVEAKASHVANIMAX QUE
PANDA LEGENDAURORA PATCHDOUBLE SHOWSUNNY QDOUBLE WINSILVER UPFAST NETWORKGUSTOSISIMOONE MORETOP DRAGON
TEAM HAPPYAUTUMN VIBESRAGNARRGROOVY FEELINGFLOOFGALE SAGABOTTOMUPTOGETHERMICKLEYHAYDAYKA YING SUPERB
YOUNG HORIZONSKY SONGPODIUMKING GLORIOSODILBAGHINVINCIBLE IBISBEAUTY WAVESCHIU CHOW SPIRITKEMPESTOP GUN
THE WAY WE WINMASTER PHOENIXLUCKY BLESSINGDANCING CLASSICSBEAUTY VIVANO OTHER CHOICERAGING BLIZZARDTAJ DRAGONSUGAR SUGAROUTGATE
FAIRY HORSEGREAT SPIRITMODEST GENTLEMANFLASH STARROMANTIC FANTASYSTRANGE ALERTINVINCIBLE SAGESTEPS AHEADEVERSTARSHAMUS STORM
LAPRASCIRCUS REELGLORIOUS EXPERTAMAZING FUNHAILTOTHEVICTORSSUNDAY'S SERENADEMAGIC CONTROLTOURBILLON PRINCEONE MAN SHOWANODE
DRAGON SUNRISEHAPPY BUDDIESHE WAS MELUCKY MANFIREFOOTRAINBOW SEVENHEALTHY HAPPYSIX PACKPRESTIGE RICKY
PHANTOM CYCLONESUGAR QUEEN PRAWNTHE CONCENTRATIONWARRIORS DREAMPERFECT PAIRINGCHINA WINWONDER KITNEW FUTURE FOLKSSKY VINO
COSMO LIGHTSTAR PERFORMERSUPER CHARIZZARDINCREDIBLE MOMENTNORTHERN BEASTWIN METHODLUCKY PLANETMUST GO
COSMO NAVIGATOREVER SMARTCLUB ACEPACKING HURRICANEBASIC INSTINCTSUPER LEGENDSSUPERB KID
IRON LEGIONRIDING HIGHKOLACHIPRESTIGE ALWAYSSHARPEN BRIGHT
CONCORDE STARHOLMES A COURTSILVERY BREEZE
 
La Cressonnière said:
SHA TIN 2025/10/01 O Outlander +> ML Probality to finish in the 3 in order by race
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10
CASHISCASHHANDSOME BOMBYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGDO YOUR PARTFOREVER FOLKSRAGING RAPIDSWUNDERBARHONG LOK GOLFHAROLD WINLUCKY MY WAY
WINDICATOR FAMILYSEA EMERALDNOBLE DELUXEREWARDING TWINKLECAN'T GO WONGVICTORY CHAMPIONBABY CRYSTALHUGE WAVEAKASHVANIMAX QUE
PANDA LEGENDAURORA PATCHDOUBLE SHOWSUNNY QDOUBLE WINSILVER UPFAST NETWORKGUSTOSISIMOONE MORETOP DRAGON
TEAM HAPPYAUTUMN VIBESRAGNARRGROOVY FEELINGFLOOFGALE SAGABOTTOMUPTOGETHERMICKLEYHAYDAYKA YING SUPERB
YOUNG HORIZONSKY SONGPODIUMKING GLORIOSODILBAGHINVINCIBLE IBISBEAUTY WAVESCHIU CHOW SPIRITKEMPESTOP GUN
THE WAY WE WINMASTER PHOENIXLUCKY BLESSINGDANCING CLASSICSBEAUTY VIVANO OTHER CHOICERAGING BLIZZARDTAJ DRAGONSUGAR SUGAROUTGATE
FAIRY HORSEGREAT SPIRITMODEST GENTLEMANFLASH STARROMANTIC FANTASYSTRANGE ALERTINVINCIBLE SAGESTEPS AHEADEVERSTARSHAMUS STORM
LAPRASCIRCUS REELGLORIOUS EXPERTAMAZING FUNHAILTOTHEVICTORSSUNDAY'S SERENADEMAGIC CONTROLTOURBILLON PRINCEONE MAN SHOWANODE
DRAGON SUNRISEHAPPY BUDDIESHE WAS MELUCKY MANFIREFOOTRAINBOW SEVENHEALTHY HAPPYSIX PACKPRESTIGE RICKY
PHANTOM CYCLONESUGAR QUEEN PRAWNTHE CONCENTRATIONWARRIORS DREAMPERFECT PAIRINGCHINA WINWONDER KITNEW FUTURE FOLKSSKY VINO
COSMO LIGHTSTAR PERFORMERSUPER CHARIZZARDINCREDIBLE MOMENTNORTHERN BEASTWIN METHODLUCKY PLANETMUST GO
COSMO NAVIGATOREVER SMARTCLUB ACEPACKING HURRICANEBASIC INSTINCTSUPER LEGENDSSUPERB KID
IRON LEGIONRIDING HIGHKOLACHIPRESTIGE ALWAYSSHARPEN BRIGHT
CONCORDE STARHOLMES A COURTSILVERY BREEZE
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La Cressonnière La Cressonnière for comparison this is what my rating sheet come up with for this meeting

1759249672325.png
 
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