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Draw laying system

paulb164

Colt
Still smarting over that PSG v Monaco game... the pot took quite a hit from that loss.

Some leagues are returning to normal domestic schedules... these are the next bunch of listings. Not as many Q-rated games as usual, so I have added a few more games with both high home win potential, with relatively low lay odds. The green rows are Q-rated, the golden rows are the ones I suggest to lay double points on;

1579280964176.png

As shown in the last post, I am looking at odds movement in the mornings of games I list to see if there's any value in putting bets on ahead of odds movement leading up to kick-offs. When I have a few charts to look at, I'll put that analysis on here.
 

Delboy99

Gelding
..... Hi Paul. Just been digesting your thread number 140 where you talk of laying the draw at odds of 11.00 and trying for 9.00 earlier in the day. It strikes me as quite a big risk to be laying draws at those odds whilst all the indications are on very strong favourites. Seems to me one needs plenty of bottle to be lumping big money at such hefty prices no matter how attractive they look. Have you made any headway into your system where you have been able to identify laying draws at much lower prices? Maybe as you say, a big pot in the way of capital might help when it comes to laying out the cash, but to many it could represent too big a stumbling block. ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
3 games this evening - all winners.

I did check all 3 games' draw lay odds at around midday - this was their movements between then and kick-off;

NAC Breda v Jong AZ Alkmaar
midday lay odds - 6.0
kick-off lay odds - 6.8

FC Volendram v Jong PSV
midday odds - 9.2
kick-off lay odds - 6.4

Fulham v Middlesbrough
midday odds - 3.65
kick-off lay odds - 3.9

2 of the 3 games' odds lengthened, while 1 shortened. I think that if the games are sensibly priced, then I will expect to lengthen as it nears kick-off. FC Volendram v Jong PSV looked very excessive at 9.2, and I'm not surprised that it shortened by the time the match got started. I wonder if the market volume had something to do with it, as it only had £438 matched compared to the Fulham v Middlesbrough game where £15,370 had been matched by lunchtime. It's difficult to draw any conclusions from 3 or 4 games though, and will also take notes on tomorrow's games as well.
 

paulb164

Colt
..... Hi Paul. Just been digesting your thread number 140 where you talk of laying the draw at odds of 11.00 and trying for 9.00 earlier in the day. It strikes me as quite a big risk to be laying draws at those odds whilst all the indications are on very strong favourites. Seems to me one needs plenty of bottle to be lumping big money at such hefty prices no matter how attractive they look. Have you made any headway into your system where you have been able to identify laying draws at much lower prices? Maybe as you say, a big pot in the way of capital might help when it comes to laying out the cash, but to many it could represent too big a stumbling block. ;)
Hey Delboy99 Delboy99
The system doesn't look for cheap lays, but for home favourites in specific leagues, with high home win and/or low draw averages based on goal and scoreline expectations. Compiling results from the game choices was a lesson in seeing if I could come up with a system which picked games that returned a profit at starting odds, which it does. With regards to the French game from post #140, the odds alone showed PSG to be the overwhelming favourite based solely on the game odds alone (I think they were about 1.16 for the home win), but it is up to anyone who's following the system with real money to decide where their top level to bet with is. Odds fluctuate and as post #140 shows if you can get the odds better than when at kick-off which my records were using up to now, then P/L will improve. All I can suggest is that if you set your own top level and don't go beyond that, then that is all well and good. I did try to limit the odds to games under 6.0 at the start, but found through the results that profitability suffered quite a lot.
The system so far has picked 17 games where the starting odds were 10.0+ (PSG game included)... the PSG game so far is the only one to lose. So considering (with £10 stakes) I lost £100 on the PSG game, I made £152 on all the other games, and so £52 up. If I did 2X points on some of those that I now think should be bet that way, then I'd have returned £190 minus the loss of the PSG game.
It's worth mentioning that with the 200+ results to date, I experimented with all kinds of combinations and staking plans, and found a combination and a simple staking strategy that for £10 stakes (and the liability that comes with it), I would have been over £1000 up after 6 weeks of this trial's current duration - even with that French game included. I do personally use a top limit of 9.0 and have used real money (albeit £2 per game as I was still testing), and can say that it has made me a little money since I started it.
Incidentally, I also put a stepped over 0.5 goal in-play bet through BetAngel on all these games which has also given me a profit on these games alone :D
 

paulb164

Colt
OK - I'm going to reset the system as it now has adjusted filters from last weekend's analysis and a defined staking plan based on the 200+ results I have got so far. As mentioned in the very last post, through those various combinations checked, I'll employ the one that could have earned over £1000 with £10 stakes for the 6 weeks it has been running. If you do want to follow with actual money, I recommend you start at a sensible £2 per bet and let the pot accumulate (🤞) before raising stakes (though for recording purposes I'll be sticking to £10 stake).
Since I identified a quite profitable plan which involved double points on games from either a league averaging under 19% draws, or where there's a goal prediction of 4 to the home team. I'll show these in list postings in gold. I will still continue to separate out the Q-rated games, which will be shown as green.

As last night's games followed the new checking criteria, they are included in the new reset;
1579338101940.png
 
Best of luck paulb164 paulb164 with this next phase.

I think the best way to gauge if the 'price is right' is to go by the Book Percentage.
ie. Place bets if under >101.0% (It won't deviate far from this by KO)
You can set and forget it then with a rule in BA.

The N.I. Prem. match Linfield is at 102.4% with odds of 14.0 atm and may not get enough volume by 3pm KO to get to your price of 7.0
However, if under 101.0% by then and the odds were, say, 10.0 then this may still represent a value bet based on market expectancy.

Of course I do realise that we should reverse this and be looking on the Lay side of the book ie/ 99% and above if placing bets.
I just find it easier to glance at the back side. 🚶‍♀️🏃‍♀️
 
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paulb164

Colt
Well, that was a brutal day of system bets... all winners except the 2 with the highest odds and both over 10.0 :eek: I sincerely hope that if you were using actual money, then you did as I did (and as I said in post #144) and set a limit of 9.0 for betting... as I use BetAngel for my betting, the rule I use for this strategy limits the bets to no higher than 9.0 odds. Although the system has coped so far quite well with these excessive odds in the past, today has shown that it is very important to set a reasonable limit with lay betting so that over the long run you don't find yourself in loss on the back of 1 or 2 very bad games. If I had included the last 2 days of results in the original system results, I would still be in credit, but only by around £200 from over £1000 !
As a result, I am going to slightly amend the filters to avoid picking games with excessive draw lay odds, and say as a system rule not to place bets on games where the odds are over 9.0. As I can't tell you what the odds will definitely be when anyone takes them or when kick-off happens when I put the lists out (for some games several days ahead), if the odds do go over 9.0 by kick-off I won't show them in the results figures. I'll still record their scores so I can see the success of the picks, but won't record their P/L whether they win or lose.

The odds between morning and kick-off from today's games didn't really show any trends, other than that if there is a real overwhelming favourite in a game like in today's Manchester City v Crystal Palace game and the PSG game from post #140, people heavily backing the home favourite will undoubtedly skew the draw and away odds to drift/compensate. My feeling is that if the draw odds are 7.0 or under in the mornings (with enough financial backing in the market to ensure it isn't at a false odds level for the game), then take them as they will either remain the same or for the most part get slightly worse by kick-off due to market movement as a result on home team betting through the course of the day. Anything over that and I will take the kick-off odds and rely on my BetAngel rule to ensure no bets over 9.0 are placed. Be careful as some leagues won't be as mainstream as others in the system listings and the match market not backed so the odds are true (as mentioned by retriever retriever in post #148). Another check would be to see if the home team's odds to win are under, say 1.6 - if so then you can reasonably assume the draw lay odds will drift to compensate for more money put on the home favourite up to the off.
 

paulb164

Colt
Firstly apologies, as I haven't been managing this as well as I should have this week... been a full-on week at work and this plan has suffered for it. I tried to get in some of last night's games as there were 3 that qualified, but had already started as I was about to post the list (Dortmund being one of them, who scored in the first minute !). Needless to say, all 3 games ended in a non-draw :headbang:
A catch-up of the week's/last weekend's games from the list sent out in post #141 - BF didn't cover the AEK v Larissa game at all, so even though the home team won handsomely, I can't put it in the results spreadsheet. Neither can I with the Rangers v St. Mirren match as the odds started over the 9.0 odds thresh-hold.
The P/L is looking good since the latest changes and reset - the win % is a lofty 93% in 28 games (which has had the high-odds matches removed from the results), and my own revised checking system which wasn't working at all at the start of this whole trial and which adds to the Q-rated matches has meant that the red line is currently running away with it.
As I have tweaked the Q-rated filters, I have made it more difficult to identify the Q-rated games (only 6 games that had under 9.0 odds so far since the reboot), and more of them are now falling into the 'almost a Q' game, which then get checked over before adding them in anyway, so I will bring the qualifying ceiling down by 1 point so more games are identified as a Q-rated game, which ought to bring the chart lines closer together.

1579942645908.png
 

paulb164

Colt
WOW - a true horror story this weekend ! One that has really shaken my belief in this being a promising system to pursue if I'm being honest. Also compounded by the fact I hadn't posted the 3 Friday night games in time that all came through.
Of the 16 picks of the weekend, I managed to hit 6 draws. The main culprit was the Dutch Eredivisie, who for a league which has an average of only 20% results as draws and a very high home win % as well so far this season, actually hit 50% of their weekend matches as draws. And I managed to pick all 4 of them and no other game from this league for this system !
Also, for the third time in a row, Inter let me down again... this is a team that has been in the top 2 of the Italian Serie A for most of the season and has lost only 1 game (against Juventus). Inter managed just 1 draw in the first 2/3rds of their respective season, but have now managed 5 draws from their last 7 games ! Dare I bet on them again if my system tells me to ?
And to top it off, top of the table Dundee Utd at home only managed a draw against bottom 3 Greenock Morton in a league with the best non-draw average of all the leagues (16%) ! I think all the planets have aligned this weekend and have conspired to produce such extreme results !
I think this is one hell of an anomaly... the Dutch picks alone tells me that. But it does prove they can happen. On the plus side, if I tot up all the games in this trial so far, I would still be in profit. I have analysed the games that lost, and they really are completely against the run of play considering their results up to the weekend.

So to complete the horror story considering the last post showed the red line in £153 profit and with a 93% success rate, here's the P/L after this weekend;
1580117384638.png

The law of averages tell me that I won't be right 100% of the time with the picks, and I will capture a few draws along the way. And there have been game days where I have got a clean sweep. I am hoping that this weekend is just balancing out the good work the system has achieved since the restart as 93% was a difficult level of hit-rate to maintain. The system averaged out at around 84% up to now, so I am expecting it to improve from the 80% it is now - there are 3 games playing today - lets hope they are all winners to bring the system to near break-even. 🤞
 
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paulb164

Colt
* Note - if we had got out of the PSV game when they got the red card while 1-0 up, then we would still be showing a profit on the red line... further confirmation to get out of the game as soon as the favourite gets any red cards
 

Delboy99

Gelding
paulb164 paulb164 I think you missed a draw Paul. I followed these over the weekend to see what they were doing and there were 7 drawn games:-
Marseille 0-0, Sparta 1-1, Dundee U 1-1, Inter 1-1, Vitesse 1-1, Willem II 0-0, and PSV 1-1. Looks like it is a little worse than you thought, but all systems take a nosedive now and again. Keep up the good work. ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
paulb164 paulb164 I think you missed a draw Paul. I followed these over the weekend to see what they were doing and there were 7 drawn games:-
Marseille 0-0, Sparta 1-1, Dundee U 1-1, Inter 1-1, Vitesse 1-1, Willem II 0-0, and PSV 1-1. Looks like it is a little worse than you thought, but all systems take a nosedive now and again. Keep up the good work. ;)
you're right... I forgot the Marseille game in the write-up, but it was recorded as a draw in the spreadsheet so the chart is accurate. I think I overlooked it because I could accept that as a draw, but the Dutch games particularly felt like a hard kick between the legs considering the unlikelihood of all 4 games with strong home favourites ending in a draw and my system picking them all despite all the stats telling me just how improbable that would be !
I think the harsh reality is that listed odds over time generally justify themselves and even out the longer you use them. I think that I have had perhaps 3 bad days with this system, with the rest break-even or profitable ones, and so all added up it is still proving to be profitable.
 
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