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Compiling Speed figures.

While i've never seen it discussed it strikes me that the Handicap numbers need to be nuanced and not just taken has fact, for instance the 5.06 yarm won by ORGANISE shouldn't be taken literally, a mark of 62 isn't realistic but because the pace during the middle part of the race dipped the final time suffered. To further this point there was a ridiculously slow early pace in the 4.25 y that producing numbers would be pointless, that has to be the correct way to proceed if you're taking note of the numbers provided here or not has the case might be.
Getting back to ORGANISE my feeling is that he's at least a 90+ horse with improvement to come probably over 10f (dante entry) but he did take time get going when asked here however, was well on top at the end.

2.37y POINT OF LAW was green imo but the sectionals told a story with the winner DEL MARO already rated 101 and produced 11.26 2f-1f to make the difference after the pace dropped in the middle part of the race.

ALMATY STAR+8 5.40 yarm Flew out of the traps and was fabulous to watch with the runner-up also of interest.
 
doomster said:
You make some good points T tacker , but Organise hasn't got a h/cap mark and they still may not assess hi until his 3rd run.

I'd guess they will use his win on debut at Southwell; a 7.5 lth win over Breathe Easy as a guide.

Breath Easy is now rated 82
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Indeed ORGANISE will need to improve greatly from wuat he's achieved so far but in truth we're all guessing atm until they have a bash, wouldn't we have said very similar things regarding hores like ECONOMICS & DESERT CROWN who are two i recall from recent years so who knows.
I don't think we saw the best of this horse yesterday and if we did see anything close to his full ability then of course he won't be any good in terms of group races but these top trainers tend to know what they're doing.

From a point of this thread i suppose it comes down to how you want to use it ?
Very often we see low grade handicappers markedup by +10 or more but that shouldn't determines anyones opinion going forward ie backing it nto unless you have fully understood the how's and why's, or at least that's my approach.
If a cl6 handicapper gets a +10 but when you look closer at the result only to find there's less than 2L between the first 5 or 6 then surely we have to ask why ? Very often it's because the pace is very even or efficient, probably A or even A+, now if that isn't the case and you can't see any other logic than a performance 10lbs better than it's present mark then that's the time to sit up and take notice.
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother puts these numbers out there for the forum and everyone can use them how they see fit, for myself i'm using them as a possible starting point along with the replays, sectionals etc, obviously i don't comment on many and don't intend to do so but stand by my point that like things horse racing they need nuance the same way sectionals certainly do, it's all part of form reading imo and i should finally mention the "going descriptions", where i have come to the view courses can't be relied upon for anything close to accuracy and i prefer to trust these numbers.
 
tacker said:
While i've never seen it discussed it strikes me that the Handicap numbers need to be nuanced and not just taken has fact, for instance the 5.06 yarm won by ORGANISE shouldn't be taken literally, a mark of 62 isn't realistic but because the pace during the middle part of the race dipped the final time suffered. To further this point there was a ridiculously slow early pace in the 4.25 y that producing numbers would be pointless, that has to be the correct way to proceed if you're taking note of the numbers provided here or not has the case might be.
Getting back to ORGANISE my feeling is that he's at least a 90+ horse with improvement to come probably over 10f (dante entry) but he did take time get going when asked here however, was well on top at the end.

2.37y POINT OF LAW was green imo but the sectionals told a story with the winner DEL MARO already rated 101 and produced 11.26 2f-1f to make the difference after the pace dropped in the middle part of the race.

ALMATY STAR+8 5.40 yarm Flew out of the traps and was fabulous to watch with the runner-up also of interest.
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To get the horse anywhere near the BHA equivalent you would have to add WFA (because they do) for direct comparison, so that would make it a 75, good horses can run slow times so maybe it’s a 90 horse or even more, who knows but the overall time in this race can’t evidence that for whatever reason, maybe sectionals could paint a better picture of any uplift, but unless you have all the historical sectional data in a workable format you are somewhat guessing to that and always will be.
Take times out of it horse has run 92 ish form rating for sure there. Probably 96 ish on first run.
Last years Dante winner would have done less when he lined up, guess work with lightly raced horses, if you can find a way to evaluate their potential accurately you have an edge.
 
The fact he started off at Southwell is no longer an issue for Gosden, since it changed the surface. He previously hated the track and only sent horses who were off to the sales.

The horse cost 380K, so should hopefully justify the cost.

I remembered Enable made her debut at Newcastle in November on her 2yo debut, for the trainer.

Got a mark of 84, but the stupid trainer missed the h/cap option :D
 
doomster said:
The fact he started off at Southwell is no longer an issue for Gosden, since it changed the surface. He previously hated the track and only sent horses who were off to the sales.

The horse cost 380K, so should hopefully justify the cost.

I remembered Enable made her debut at Newcastle in November on her 2yo debut, for the trainer.

Got a mark of 84, but the stupid trainer missed the h/cap option :D
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haha
 
Sullybomb said:
O Outlander This may help.

View attachment 166350
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This looks like the sectional data in a proprietary format, I don’t believe there is anyone who can look at this and put a value on what the horse has achieved, what you need is possibly 2 years data in excel format for every course with all the times and sectional times so you can calculate accurate standard times and ratios for each section on every course and from there you can rate every section and the race overall more accurately and assess efficiency on every runner in every race and better assess potential, lots of work involved but even those that are willing to do the work would struggle to obtain all the data they need for such a project. I do this for Hong Kong but wouldn’t even attempt U.K. unless all the data was in one place and cheap. The biggest predictive metric is the market because it is controlled worldwide by teams of boffins who have all this data and more to interrogate. Even with all the data for HK you still will struggle to beat the syndicates with any probabilities you calculate.
Looking at the raw data the times mean nothing , the finishing percentages mean nothing, they need to be compared to historical data and expectations for each horse need to be calculated and going assessed by actual v expectation, only then would you get a real clue what any section or combination of sections are offering in evidence of ability .
 
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