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Compiling Speed figures.

The lbs per length which I devised for each course and distance can be obtained from my standard time list (see below) along with the furlong distances to use.

I have highlighted the use of the lbs per calculation (Distance adjustment) below.

So in this example, the lbs per length calculation for 5f trip at the Curragh is 3.37, if a horse had run instead over 6f you would adjust the distance and use 2.82 lbs per length (See Standard times list).

In this example I used Dave Edwards "Top Speed" going allowance as an example, when I compile my own speed ratings I use my own going allowances

Here is an example how I rated the 2yo "Dawn Approach" over 5f trip at the Curragh on Sunday 25th March.

One thing to note is that I do not use Weight For Age in my calcuations, you can if you want.

1. The going time for the race was +6.93s above standard.
2. The going allowance was -0.9s/f per furlong (the yeiding going was slowing the horses down).
3. I use .2 secs per length.

Now for the calculation:

multiply 5 furlongs by the going allowance i.e. -0.9

5 x -0.9 = -4.50s

As the race was run +6.93s outside standard subtract the updated going allowance correction i.e -4.50s. (note that if the going allwance was +4.50s you will have to add the going correction)

+6.93-4.50 = +2.43s.

Now divide the corrected going allowance of +2.43 by .2 secs per length.

2.43 /.2 = 12.15 lengths.

multipy the lengths by the lbs. per length calculation which is 3.37 lbs per length for 5f trip at the Curragh.

12.15 x 3.37 = 40.94

now subtract the figure 40.94 from 100.

100-40.94 = 59.06 or rounded down 59.

As Dawn Approach carried 9st 5lb we now have to adjust the speed figure of 59.
For weight carried over 9st adjust the figure for the rating i.e.

59 + 5lb = 64 ( this is Dawn Approach speed figure).

So if Dawn Approach had carried 8-11 we would have had to subtract 3lb from his speed figure i.e.

59 - 3lbs = 56.

Once you have arrived at any horses speed figure you could add the Weight for age allowance, I don't because it corrupts the ratings.

Compiling speed ratings is easy :minigun:

Dawn Approach ended up as my highest rated 2yo with a speed figure of 102
 
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Chesham

Sire
How logically can Time equate to Lbs


Many speed handicappers convert distance in Time beaten to lengths, but in feet
and inches what is the length of a race horse, they come in all different shapes
and sizes. Until the BHA a couple of years ago changed their 0,2 Seconds = 1
length they had 3lbs equal 1 length.

One author describes what folly it was

1 furlong = 660 feet so 5 furlongs = 3300 feet
Weight of a Thoroughbred = 1100 lbs.
Length of a Thoroughbred = 9 feet
Calculations:
3300 feet ÷ 1100 lbs. = 3 feet per lb.
9 feet ÷ 3 feet per lb. = 3 lbs. per length


60 seconds ÷ 5 furlongs = 12 seconds per furlong
660 (feet in one furlong) ÷ 12 seconds per furlong = 55 feet per second
Because 1 second equals 5 lengths it follows that:
5 x the length of a Thoroughbred in feet = 55 feet

1 second = 5 lengths
55 feet ÷ 5 = 11 feet – the `stride length of a thoroughbred'
1 second ÷ 5 lengths = No. of seconds in a length = 0.20 seconds
1 length = 0.20 seconds

"The length of a Thoroughbred is both 9 feet and 11 feet!
This is probably one of the most absurd assertions in handicapping. The fact
that when combining the Time Value of One Length (0.2 sec = 1 L) and the Pound
Value of One Length ( 3 lbs = 1L over 5f) in the Beaten Lengths Adjustment
Chart, two different values for the length of the horse are used! So when a
handicapper looks up the Pound Value of One Length for a beaten horse, he is
using a formula containing 9-feet, but when he subtracts 0.2 seconds for every
length, he is using a formula containing 11-feet and I am of the opinion that
both are wrong!."


Dave Bellingham wrote an interesting observation.

He looked at how weight affected speed ratings. He took a sample of 1000 horses
and to see how the speed ratings would be affected for every 1lb that they
carried greater or or less than their previous run.

Using his Speed figures for every pound extra the horse ran a slower figure of
.04 pts per lb extra.

The strange result was that for every 1lb less that they carried the horse ran
slower by 0.3 pts per lb extra.

Good Luck

Chehsam
 

Chesham

Sire
I agree with regards Weight for age and Top Speed

The following example highlights how much speed figures are altered by weight for age.

Great Leighs 2nd Oct 2008
"8:20" "Le Chiffre" "1m" "1m 39.35s" Top Speed = 60 (My unadjusted Speed Rating 71.45)
"8:50" "Hula King" "1m" "1m 39.31s" Top Speed = 86 (My unadjusted Speed rating 71..83)

You will notice that the race won by Le Chiffre was only .04 seconds slower than Hula King, yet has a speed rating 26 pts lower. Looking at the bare figures you would judge that the Le Chiffre race, was run at a very much slower pace. The Speed Figures that I compile without weight being taken into account are there as a comparison.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
The going at Great Leighs that day was +0.42s/f (standard to fast)

AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f

I use the weight of 9-0 and a base rating of 100 and the difference between the two horses is 3lbs.

upload_2013-9-16_14-3-9.png

Without the weight adjustment

Great Leighs (AW)
02-Oct-08
RACE WINNER DIST RATING
06:50 Willhewiz 6f 47
07:20 Beat The Bell 6f 71
07:50 Miss Serena 2m 58
08:20 Le Chiffre 1m 63
08:50 Hula King 1m 63
09:20 Mahadee 1m2f 70

Both horses had the same speed figure of 63...
 
Last edited:

Chesham

Sire
Timeform

Speed Figs
Hula King 92
Le Chiffre 66

Weight For Age just amplifies the fact that Lbs and MPH are totally different and marrying the two together makes no scientific sense. I could understand if the actual body weight of the horse was known, plus the weight in the saddle, then the efficiency of that weight could be computed, using the average MPH over a set distance.


Good Luck

Chesham
 
The BHA weight for age scale states that a 2yo over 6f on Sept 16th receives a 22lb weight for age allowance.

The Racing Post weight for age scale states the same 2yo only receives a 17lb weight for age allowance

Raceform states that the same 2yo only receives a 8lb weight for age allowance.

Not bad only a 14lb difference between the three scales.
 
TBB
When you do your ratings and you work out the going allowance for your race can this also mean that you miss one or two bets
largely due to not knowing the correct going when having a bet. I'm not knocking your ratings as I am a fan of yours not a stalker yet :)
as the going may be down as soft but how soft! so you have to wait for a couple of races to get a feel for the going when checking on the Day I take it
that is how you see if the going is near as poss to the going the horse had it's best or better rating.
Does this sound about right.
 
I have never tried to work out the going allowance on the day prior to having a bet, because the majority of the time
I bet hours before race time.

The official going reports given out each day by the clerk of the courses for the flat are the majority of the time just works of fiction,
just recently in Ireland one course had the going down as soft, and when I worked out the going allowance I found it was good to firm.

The same problem can be found on the all weather when they return the going as standard, in my AW table above, I have five separate
categories covering the going allowances from slow all the way up to fast.

Racing UK always gives out the times above or below standard after each race run, the most important factor that is missing is the class of the race .
 

footysystems

Gelding
Quick question do you have a spreadsheet that you input each day or auto calculation ?? I would love to have a crack at speed figs but not my expertise field ? Any help would be fab
 

pika

Gelding
The lbs per length which I devised for each course and distance can be obtained from my standard time list (see below) along with the furlong distances to use.

I have highlighted the use of the lbs per calculation (Distance adjustment) below.

So in this example, the lbs per length calculation for 5f trip at the Curragh is 3.37, if a horse had run instead over 6f you would adjust the distance and use 2.82 lbs per length (See Standard times list).

In this example I used Dave Edwards "Top Speed" going allowance as an example, when I compile my own speed ratings I use my own going allowances

Here is an example how I rated the 2yo "Dawn Approach" over 5f trip at the Curragh on Sunday 25th March.

One thing to note is that I do not use Weight For Age in my calcuations, you can if you want.

1. The going time for the race was +6.93s above standard.
2. The going allowance was -0.9s/f per furlong (the yeiding going was slowing the horses down).
3. I use .2 secs per length.

Now for the calculation:

multiply 5 furlongs by the going allowance i.e. -0.9

5 x -0.9 = -4.50s

As the race was run +6.93s outside standard subtract the updated going allowance correction i.e -4.50s. (note that if the going allwance was +4.50s you will have to add the going correction)

+6.93-4.50 = +2.43s.

Now divide the corrected going allowance of +2.43 by .2 secs per length.

2.43 /.2 = 12.15 lengths.

multipy the lengths by the lbs. per length calculation which is 3.37 lbs per length for 5f trip at the Curragh.

12.15 x 3.37 = 40.94

now subtract the figure 40.94 from 100.

100-40.94 = 59.06 or rounded down 59.

As Dawn Approach carried 9st 5lb we now have to adjust the speed figure of 59.
For weight carried over 9st adjust the figure for the rating i.e.

59 + 5lb = 64 ( this is Dawn Approach speed figure).

So if Dawn Approach had carried 8-11 we would have had to subtract 3lb from his speed figure i.e.

59 - 3lbs = 56.

Once you have arrived at any horses speed figure you could add the Weight for age allowance, I don't because it corrupts the ratings.

Compiling speed ratings is easy :minigun:

Dawn Approach ended up as my highest rated 2yo with a speed figure of 102
Hi Mike,

Yes it is easy once you've the standard times and lbs per length figures.
I take it that the Standard Time is simply the average race time of all races over that course & distance,
but how does one go about deriving the all important lbs per length ?? :)


Mark
 
The lbs per length calculation is simple:

If we look at the standard time 59.30s for the 5f trip at the Curragh.

Divide 59.30s by .2 (1length) = 296.5

divide 296.5 into 1 then multiple by 1000 (decimal point positioning)

1/296.5 x 1000 = 3.37
 
Quick question do you have a spreadsheet that you input each day or auto calculation ?? I would love to have a crack at speed figs but not my expertise field ? Any help would be fab
I have a basic video on youtube which explains how I use excel.


For these actual files and a years worth going allowances and speed figures, unhide column "N" to view raw ratings.

Code:
 http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps
 

pika

Gelding
The lbs per length calculation is simple:

If we look at the standard time 59.30s for the 5f trip at the Curragh.

Divide 59.30s by .2 (1length) = 296.5

divide 296.5 into 1 then multiple by 1000 (decimal point positioning)

1/296.5 x 1000 = 3.37
Okay, I see. And how do you work out the Going Allowance?
 
The basics of working out the going allowance is explained in the video above, it is different for the jumps
due to the extremes of going i.e heavy, plus you also have to understand when a racecourse has two going allowances like
at Southwell yesterday.

It took me two years before I even dipped my toes in the water, the more you do it the better you get.

I have so many variable methods in my toolbox just for compiling going allowances, no two days are the same.
 

pika

Gelding
Thanks Mike! I was thinking maybe back building the figures for the jumps but looks like that may not be so straight forward.
Fair bit of subjective judgement involved!
Really like how your figures could be used as a yard stick on how well a horse is performing against its OR.
 
Thanks Mike! I was thinking maybe back building the figures for the jumps but looks like that may not be so straight forward.
Fair bit of subjective judgement involved!
Really like how your figures could be used as a yard stick on how well a horse is performing against its OR.
The national hunt will come into their own when we have the Cheltenham festival figures etc on board.
Racing Post from the 28th April 2012 changed the way they timed national hunt races, they are now timed when they cross the starting line and not when
there off, as they could be 100yds away from the starting line when the tape drops.
 
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