Chesham
Sire
the performance in the Join Racing TV Today Handicap warrants a change in the Official Rating (OR). This race was characterized by a winner returning from a massive 19-month layoff to win "comfortably," suggesting he was significantly ahead of his mark.
The proximity of the 2nd through 4th place finishers (2 lengths, Head, Short Head) provides a solid frame to anchor the race.
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The Pace Angle: Draupnir Draupnir produced the longest average stride length (7.41m). For a horse rated 72 to lead and only be caught late by a horse potentially 10lbs better suggests Draupnir is a "well-handicapped" type for the future, especially if allowed a lone lead again.
The "Sleeper": Alpha Capture While finishing 6th, Alpha Capture recorded the 2nd fastest Finishing Speed % (103.86%) and the 1st Max Stride Length (7.84m). He was denied a clear run and finished with energy. He is the one to watch for a "dropped-in" ride next time out.
The proximity of the 2nd through 4th place finishers (2 lengths, Head, Short Head) provides a solid frame to anchor the race.
Estimated Official Rating Revisions
| Horse | Age | Wgt | OR | Estimated Revised OR | Change | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murashah | 5 | 9-3 | 79 | 86 | +7 | Won with plenty in hand (Finishing Speed 105.99%). A 7lb rise is standard for a 2-length win where the horse was "well on top." |
| City Captain | 4 | 9-2 | 78 | 80 | +2 | Clear second best. Rallied well late. A 2lb nudge reflects the 2-length gap to the winner while staying ahead of the 3rd horse. |
| Draupnir | 4 | 8-10 | 72 | 73 | +1 | Set the fractions and held on well. Usually, 3rd doesn't go up, but the 7.41m stride (1st in field) suggests he's better than 72. |
| U Sure Do | 4 | 9-7 | 83 | 83 | 0 | Ran to his mark. Competitive but lacked the extra gear inside the final furlong. |
| Quest For Fun | 8 | 9-3 | 79 | 78 | -1 | One-paced finish. At age 8, he is likely slightly regressive; a 1lb drop helps him remain competitive in this class. |
| Alpha Capture | 6 | 8-13 | 75 | 75 | 0 | Caught the eye with late headway (103.86% finishing speed). Might have been closer with a clearer run. Keep same. |
| Woodstock | 6 | 9-0 | 76 | 75 | -1 | Labored one-paced finish. Needs a slight drop to find a winning opportunity. |
| Leadman | 6 | 9-9 | 85 | 83 | -2 | Never a factor and easy to back. Dropping him 2lbs to move him toward the bottom of Class 3 or top of Class 4. |
| Melvin Udall | 4 | 9-5 | 81 | 79 | -2 | Weakened quickly (Finishing speed 100.34%). Didn't stay or lacked fitness. |
| One Night Thunder | 6 | 9-6 | 82 | 80 | -2 | Failed to quicken. Needs to be lower to regain interest. |
| Frankies Dream | 4 | 9-7 | 83 | 80 | -3 | Well beaten after a long layoff. Significant drop required to account for the poor showing. |
| Beaujolais N. | 4 | 9-9 | 85 | 82 | -3 | Weakened badly (99.69% Finishing speed). Clearly not at the level of an 85-rated horse currently. |
| Count Palatine | 5 | 9-6 | 82 | 79 | -3 | Never involved. The metrics show a short stride (7.08m) and no tactical spark. |
Handicapper’s Tactical Analysis
The Winner: Murashah The performance of Murashah is the standout. Despite being "slowly away," he clocked the Top Speed (41.20 MPH) and the highest Finishing Speed % (105.99%). This indicates the pace was only moderate, yet he sprinted past the field with ease. A 7lb rise is actually lenient given the 19-month absence; he likely has a Class 3 rating (93+) in him.The Pace Angle: Draupnir Draupnir produced the longest average stride length (7.41m). For a horse rated 72 to lead and only be caught late by a horse potentially 10lbs better suggests Draupnir is a "well-handicapped" type for the future, especially if allowed a lone lead again.
The "Sleeper": Alpha Capture While finishing 6th, Alpha Capture recorded the 2nd fastest Finishing Speed % (103.86%) and the 1st Max Stride Length (7.84m). He was denied a clear run and finished with energy. He is the one to watch for a "dropped-in" ride next time out.
