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Compiling Speed figures.

ThinkingAloud said:
Regarding Organise, I believe he wouldnt win the Dante because his pedigree profile suggests 10f is too far.
When they let me through the magic door, I will share my workings with you there.
In the meantime it`s just an opinion.
Click to expand...
I just ask for some logic, what we’re talking about here is trying to predict something without any obvious evidence, predictions that say a novice might not win a dante strikes me as being simplistic in nature as opposed to something more complex and possible.
 
tacker said:
I just ask for some logic, what we’re talking about here is trying to predict something without any obvious evidence, predictions that say a novice might not win a dante strikes me as being simplistic in nature as opposed to something more complex and possible.
Click to expand...
ThinkingAloud said:
Regarding Organise, I believe he wouldnt win the Dante because his pedigree profile suggests 10f is too far.
When they let me through the magic door, I will share my workings with you there.
In the meantime it`s just an opinion.
Click to expand...
Thinking a little harder on your point about " pedigree Profile ", are you telling us that NIGHT OF THUNDER isn't capable of producing a middle distance horse or 10f ?

What about the damside ?
 
An Elite, High-Performing Middle-Distance Prospect. Lot 925 from Book 2 of the 2024 Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is a magnificent colt who commanded a hefty 360,000 Guineas from Blandford Bloodstock. By the sensational Night of Thunder out of a Nathaniel mare, he represents the quintessential modern European breeding blueprint: matching explosive, commercial miler speed with deep, durable Classic stamina. Backed by an incredibly active female line that consistently produces high-earning Group/Stakes horses, he has the genetic makeup of a top-tier performer.

2. Sire Profile: Night of Thunder (IRE)​

  • Influence: The most successful son of the legendary Dubawi at stud. As a racehorse, he won the 2000 Guineas in an incredible field that included Kingman and Australia.
  • Traits: He is a phenomenal source of tactical speed, physical presence, and high cruising speed. His progeny are generally precocious enough to win at two but excel as high-class milers and 1m 2f horses as they mature. He consistently produces sharp, powerful individuals who quicken instantly off a fast pace.

3. Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)​

This female line is steeped in quality and traces back to highly successful Juddmonte/Normandie Stud families.

  • The Dam: Chamber Maid (GB). A young mare by Nathaniel. Her early progeny include the dual-purpose winner Newport, but her true value lies in her immediate pedigree depth.
  • The Broodmare Sire: Nathaniel (IRE). A brilliant middle-distance horse (King George, Eclipse) and the sire of the immortal Enable. As a broodmare sire, Nathaniel is rapidly establishing himself as a premium source of bone, scope, and deep staying power. He balances out speedier sire lines beautifully.
  • The 2nd Dam: Maid To Dream (GB). By Oasis Dream. She has proven to be a phenomenal producer. She is the mother of The Happy Prince (Group 3 Renaissance Stakes winner), the highly lucrative Stakes horse Sibaaq (who has amassed nearly £500,000 in prize money across the UK and Australia), and the Group/Listed-placed Ziegfeld.
  • The 3rd Dam: Maid For The Hills (GB). A daughter of the brilliant speed influence Indian Ridge. She was a very fast juvenile who won the Listed Empress Stakes.

4. The Cross / Nick​

  • Genetic Blend: The Night of Thunder over Nathaniel cross (Dubawi sire-line over Galileo sire-line) is highly coveted. You are injecting the raw, explosive turn of foot of Night of Thunder into the deep, galloping stamina of Nathaniel.
  • The Speed/Stamina Sandwich: The pedigree construction here is fascinating. You have speed on top (Night of Thunder), stamina in the middle (Nathaniel), and pure speed at the bottom (Oasis Dream and Indian Ridge). This creates a beautifully balanced genetic profile—a horse with the lungs and physical scope to stay a middle distance, but the inherited fast-twitch muscle fibers to travel smoothly and sprint at the finish.

5. Conditions Suitability​

  • Distance Expectation: 7 furlongs up to 1m 2f. The heavy dosage of Oasis Dream and Indian Ridge deep in the female family, combined with Night of Thunder, means he is unlikely to want a grinding 1m 4f+ test. A mile to a mile-and-a-quarter looks exactly where his genetic sweet spot lies.
  • Track & Surface: Night of Thunder's stock generally appreciate a sound surface, though the Nathaniel and Oasis Dream influences suggest he should be highly versatile regarding ground conditions. A galloping track where he can find a rhythm before utilizing his turn of foot will suit him best.

6. Final Verdict​

The 360,000gns price tag is entirely justified. This colt is bred to be a high-class, durable 1m to 1m 2f horse. The 2nd dam (Maid To Dream) is a verified producer of elite Stakes horses, and passing that blood through the stoutness of Nathaniel makes Chamber Maid a premier broodmare prospect. If this colt inherits the physical power of Night of Thunder and the constitution of Nathaniel, he is exactly the type of horse targeted for the premier European mile/10-furlong Group races in 2026 and beyond.
 
”Modern Conduit Mares" refers to a very specific and fascinating methodology in thoroughbred pedigree analysis, primarily developed and popularized by pedigree researcher and author Bill Lathrop in his book of the same name.

It is essentially a female-centric alternative to the traditional "Dosage Index" system. While standard Dosage evaluates distance stamina based exclusively on influential sires (Chefs-de-Race), the Conduit Mare Profile (CMP) argues that the female families—the "conduit mares"—are equally, if not more, potent in transmitting speed and stamina aptitudes.

Here is a breakdown of how the Modern Conduit Mare system works:

1. The Core Concept​

Instead of looking at the famous stallions in a horse's pedigree, this system evaluates the established maternal lines. It traces the aptitudes passed down through the tail-female lines and key broodmares within a 5-generation or deeper pedigree. Lathrop's research quantified the historical performance of offspring stemming from these specific mares to determine whether a mare was a profound influence for sprinting, middle distances, or extreme stamina.

2. The Conduit Mare Profile (CMP)​

Similar to traditional Dosage, the Conduit Mare Profile categorizes a pedigree's maternal genetic influences into five distance aptitudes. A horse is assigned a numerical profile (e.g., 10-4-2-4-12) reading left to right across these categories:

  • Brilliant: Pure, explosive sprint speed.
  • Intermediate: Extended sprint to a mile speed.
  • Classic: The traditional 1m 2f to 1m 4f middle-distance sweet spot.
  • Solid: 1m 4f to 1m 6f stamina.
  • Professional: Extreme, grinding staying power (2 miles+).

3. Key Metrics Derived from the Profile​

Once the points are tallied from the conduit mares in a horse's pedigree, the system generates specific metrics used by handicappers and bloodstock agents:

  • Speed vs. Stamina Score: The system adds the Brilliant and Intermediate points to get a total "Speed" score, and adds the Solid and Professional points to get a "Stamina" score.
  • CMP Index: Much like the Dosage Index (DI), this is a ratio of speed to stamina derived from the female family. A lower index number (e.g., 0.75) indicates a heavy genetic tilt toward stamina, while a higher number (e.g., 3.00) indicates maternal brilliance and sprint speed.
  • Triads: This metric groups the points into overlapping blocks of three (Speed Triad, Classic Triad, Stamina Triad) to pinpoint exactly where a horse's optimal distance lies.

Why Bloodstock Analysts Use It​

The traditional sire-based Dosage system has faced criticism in recent decades for becoming outdated and ignoring the "bottom half" of the pedigree. Analysts who rely on Modern Conduit Mares believe that true stamina and durability—especially for gruelling tests like the European Classics or the American Triple Crown—are primarily anchored by the broodmare lines. By mapping the Conduit Mares, analysts can often spot "hidden" stamina in a pedigree that standard sire-profiling misses.

1. The Tail-Female Line (The "Bottom" Conduit)​

Traditional Dosage looks at Nathaniel, Oasis Dream, and Indian Ridge here. The Conduit methodology ignores them and looks exclusively at the mares to determine what genetic aptitudes are actually being passed down.

  • 1st Dam: Chamber Maid (GB)
    • CMP Principle: While she is a young mare, her early production (Newport) leans toward middle-distance/dual-purpose.
    • Aptitude: Classic / Solid
  • 2nd Dam: Maid To Dream (GB)
    • CMP Principle: This is a crucial conduit mare. She produced The Happy Prince (a Group 3 winning sprinter/miler) and Sibaaq (a high-class miler/10-furlong horse). She successfully transmits speed that stretches.
    • Aptitude: Intermediate / Classic
  • 3rd Dam: Maid For The Hills (GB)
    • CMP Principle: A brilliant, precocious racehorse who won the Listed Empress Stakes as a 2-year-old over a sprint distance. Her maternal legacy in the studbook is anchored in fast-twitch muscle.
    • Aptitude: Brilliant / Intermediate
Tail-Female Conclusion: When reading this bottom line from right to left (from the 3rd dam up to the mother), the Conduit Profile shows a family rooted in Brilliant speed that has been gradually stretched into Classic stamina in the current generation.

2. The Hidden Conduits (Top and Middle Pedigree)​

A true CMP analysis also evaluates the mothers of the famous sires in the pedigree, as they are the hidden transmitters of stamina and speed.

  • Forest Storm (The mother of Night of Thunder)
    • CMP Principle: She is a daughter of Galileo, but she produced a 2000 Guineas winning miler in Night of Thunder. Her maternal influence is a perfect bridge between speed and stamina.
    • Aptitude: Intermediate / Classic
  • Magnificient Style (The mother of Nathaniel)
    • CMP Principle: This is one of the most elite "Blue Hen" conduit mares of the modern era. She produced Nathaniel (King George winner), Great Heavens (Irish Oaks winner), and Playful Act (Fillies' Mile winner). In the CMP system, a mare like this carries massive weight for durability and stamina.
    • Aptitude: Solid / Professional

3. The Final CMP Translation for Lot 925​

If we were to map out a "Speed vs. Stamina Score" based strictly on the mares in this colt's pedigree, the profile reveals a very specific engine:

  1. The Speed Base: The foundation of the family (Maid For The Hills) provides the underlying Brilliant/Intermediate points. This guarantees the horse will not be a one-paced plodder.
  2. The Stamina Core: The crucial injection of Magnificient Style (via Nathaniel) combined with Forest Storm pulls the pedigree heavily into the Classic/Solid triad.
The Verdict: By viewing Lot 925 through the Modern Conduit Mare lens, we confirm the initial analysis, but with different proof. The sire-based Dosage would tell you he is a miler stepping up in trip. The Conduit Mare Profile tells you he is inherently a Classic middle-distance horse (1m 2f) who just happens to possess the residual Brilliant sprint speed of his grandams. This perfectly explains why he was viewed as a 360,000gns premium prospect for the European Classics.
 
Star Of Hope makes her Debut in the Newmarket 4.45.

She has no future race entries so looks a work in progress and they are not sure with regards firm plans for her career.

I am surprised they have started out over a mile and would have thought a 5-6f race as a starting point

Purchased for a breathtaking 2,900,000gns by Anthony Stroud on behalf of Godolphin, this 3-year-old filly represents the absolute pinnacle of European commercial bloodstock. She commanded the highest price of her session for one simple reason: she is a full sister to the exceptional multiple Group 1-winning miler Charyn and the Group 2-winning sprinter Wings of War. Sired by Dark Angel out of a highly proven Kodiac mare, she possesses an elite, speed-laden genetic profile that guarantees extreme residual value as a future broodmare for the Godolphin operation, regardless of her racetrack performance.




Sire Profile: Dark Angel (IRE)​

Dark Angel (by Acclamation) has been a dominant, stalwart force in the European stallion ranks for over a decade, renowned for siring top-class sprinters and milers.

  • Progeny Traits: He consistently stamps his stock with early physical maturity, sharp gate speed, and a remarkably robust constitution. His progeny are famously tough, genuine, and hold their form well throughout long campaigns.
  • Conditions: While his stock are versatile and often handle cut in the ground well, they are highly effective on sound turf where they can fully utilize their trademark acceleration.

Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)​

The maternal side of this pedigree is where the 2.9 million guineas valuation is justified.

  • The Broodmare Sire (Kodiac): A record-breaking sire of precocious two-year-olds, Kodiac injects pure, fast-twitch muscle fiber, tactical speed, and a fiercely competitive attitude.
  • The Dam (Futoon): A Listed-placed sprinter herself, Futoon has evolved into a generational "blue hen" broodmare.Her mating with Dark Angel has been nothing short of spectacular. She is the dam of Charyn (winner of the G1 Queen Anne Stakes and G1 Prix Jacques le Marois) and Wings of War (winner of the G2 Mill Reef Stakes). This is an incredibly active, Group 1-producing family.
    +1

The Cross/Nick​

Dark Angel (Acclamation line) x Kodiac (Danehill line) We do not need to guess if this genetic cross works; it has already produced two elite group-winning full brothers to this filly.

  • The Blend: It layers the rugged, sprinting durability of Dark Angel over the sharp, precocious speed of Kodiac.
  • Result: It produces high-class athletes who possess the natural pace to sprint at Group level as two-year-olds (like Wings of War), but the physical scope and class to stretch out and dominate over a mile as they mature (like Charyn).

Conditions Suitability​

Based strictly on her genetic blueprint and the profile of her full siblings:

  • Distance: 6 furlongs to 1 Mile. Given her pedigree, she will likely debut over 6 or 7 furlongs. If she inherits the class of Charyn, a mile will ultimately become her optimum trip.
  • Ground/Going: Good / Good to Soft. Both Dark Angel and Kodiac progeny typically appreciate a fair surface but have absolutely no issue handling typical European spring/autumn ground with a bit of ease.
  • Track Type: Flat, fair tracks. Her family line possesses the tactical gears to handle a variety of track layouts, though sweeping tracks like Newbury or Ascot (where Charyn excelled) will suit her beautifully.

Final Verdict​

This filly is a blue-chip asset. The staggering 2,900,000gns price tag reflects not just her racing potential, but her immense intrinsic value to Godolphin's future breeding bands. She has the exact same genetic toolkit that produced the best miler in Europe (Charyn). If she possesses even a fraction of her brother's engine, she is a nailed-on Group-level prospect for her 3-year-old campaign.

First Dam: Futoon (by Kodiac)​

  • The Influence: Kodiac is a record-breaking sire of precocious two-year-olds and pure sprinters. Futoon herself was a very sharp, Listed-placed sprinter who did her best work over 5 to 6 furlongs.
  • Conduit Contribution: This first and most crucial maternal layer dumps maximum points into the "Brilliant"(pure speed) category. There is virtually no stamina being passed down from the immediate dam.

2. Second Dam: Vermilliann (by Mujadil)​

  • The Influence: Mujadil (a son of Storm Bird) was a renowned, out-and-out speed influence who consistently sired fast, sharp 5-furlong horses. Vermilliann herself was a two-year-old winner over sprint trips.
  • Conduit Contribution: The second dam compounds the speed of the first. This adds a massive secondary layer of "Brilliant" and "Sprint" points to the profile, reinforcing the fast-twitch muscle fibers.

3. Third Dam: Refined (by Statoblest)​

  • The Influence: Statoblest comes from the Ahonoora sire line, famous for producing tough, hard-knocking sprinters. Refined was a highly successful broodmare, most notably producing Galeota, who won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes over 6 furlongs as a two-year-old.
  • Conduit Contribution: Yet again, the influence is entirely geared toward early maturity and short-distance tactical pace.

The Estimated Profile​

If we were to map this out on a traditional CMP scale (Brilliant – Intermediate – Classic – Solid – Professional):

  • The Shape: The profile would be extremely front-loaded. It would show massive spikes in the first two speed categories, tapering off to practically zero in the "Classic" (1m 4f) or "Solid/Professional" (stamina/2m+) categories.
  • Speed vs. Stamina Index: The Speed points would utterly dwarf the Stamina points, resulting in a very high speed-biased index.

What This Means for the Filly​

The maternal conduit for this 2.9 million guineas filly is a pure, unadulterated pipeline of sprinting speed and early precocity.

The fact that her full brother, Charyn, managed to stretch this pedigree out to become an elite miler is a testament to his sheer class and Dark Angel's ability to provide the physical scope to stretch raw speed over 8 furlongs. However, genetically, this filly's female line is hardwired to be incredibly sharp out of the starting stalls and fully capable of operating at elite sprints
 
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