Amazing amount of work
Chesham
Compiling Speed figures.
- Thread starter TheBluesBrother
- Start date
Chesham
mlmrob
Sire
During the Golden Age of the July Cup, 2010-2016, you can hang your hat on the horse with the highest official rating as they won six of the seven renewals. However, since then Advertise has done best by finishing second last year. Overall the top rated horse has won 7 of the last 21 renewals. The second top rated is 0-18 whilst the third top rated have won two of the last three runnings, which means since 2010, 8 of the 10 renewals have been won by a horse from the top three on official ratings.
2018 was an exceptional year when US Navy Flag won off 113 and the top 3 rated were 120,117 and 116. The other one that got away was when Mayson won a weak renewal in 2012.
This year Golden Horde, Hello Youmazain and Sceptical head the ratings.
Six of the last seven runners had run over a maximum distance of 7f-8f.
Of the above three only Hello Youmzain has run over further than 6f.
As six of the last eight runnings has saw a horse win with both trends I like the look of Hello Youmzain who is 2-4 in Group 1. He has to give 6lbs WFA to Golden Horde which will be difficult but in a race where not many will get into it he can be backed to make a profit by staking 25/75.
2018 was an exceptional year when US Navy Flag won off 113 and the top 3 rated were 120,117 and 116. The other one that got away was when Mayson won a weak renewal in 2012.
This year Golden Horde, Hello Youmazain and Sceptical head the ratings.
Six of the last seven runners had run over a maximum distance of 7f-8f.
Of the above three only Hello Youmzain has run over further than 6f.
As six of the last eight runnings has saw a horse win with both trends I like the look of Hello Youmzain who is 2-4 in Group 1. He has to give 6lbs WFA to Golden Horde which will be difficult but in a race where not many will get into it he can be backed to make a profit by staking 25/75.
@mimrob
Very good stats. However I have backed KHAADEM in my belief that he didn’t get the run of the race at Ascot and might well turn the form around as my ratings have the top three all within a couple of points of each other but at 11/1 I believe it is the value bet I have had a saver on GOLDEN HORDE although I see there has been a ton of money for HELLO YOUMZAIN
Very good stats. However I have backed KHAADEM in my belief that he didn’t get the run of the race at Ascot and might well turn the form around as my ratings have the top three all within a couple of points of each other but at 11/1 I believe it is the value bet I have had a saver on GOLDEN HORDE although I see there has been a ton of money for HELLO YOUMZAIN
TheBluesBrother I know its a continuous theme with me coming on here saying the RP standards are rubbish and are the cause of your headaches compiling the figures, but I have to say Kilbeggan is as bad as Fakenham. Life is too short to compile speed figures using RP standards at Kilbeggan.Just in this one meeting 5 different distances and I have a 88lb swing in the difference between my standards and RP
I'm not going to come on here and tell you my standards are correct because no standards are ever going to be perfect I know that , but this meeting at Kilbeggan made perfect sense using my standards and the going came out identical 0.06 s/f slow (Good) on both chase and hurdle races.
| CD Code | Yards | STANDARD | RP | LBS DIFF |
| Kilbeggan-National Hunt-3520-H Flat- | 3520 | 211.10 | 215 | -24 |
| Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4360-Hurdle- | 4360 | 276.81 | 267.5 | 47 |
| Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4380-Chase- | 4380 | 289.65 | 294 | -22 |
| Kilbeggan-National Hunt-5460-Hurdle- | 5460 | 355.87 | 340 | 64 |
| Kilbeggan-National Hunt-5500-Chase- | 5500 | 371.64 | 365 | 27 |
| race_date | racetime | track | horse_name | Act Yards | CD Code | Rating | GA |
10/07/2020 | 16:25:00 | Kilbeggan | My Midnight (IRE) | 4360 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4360-Hurdle- | 121 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 16:55:00 | Kilbeggan | Politicise (IRE) | 4360 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4360-Hurdle- | 101 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 17:25:00 | Kilbeggan | Arthurian Fame (IRE) | 4360 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4360-Hurdle- | 127 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 17:55:00 | Kilbeggan | Mengli Khan (IRE) | 4360 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4360-Hurdle- | 124 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 18:25:00 | Kilbeggan | Mindsmadeup (IRE) | 5460 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-5460-Hurdle- | 80 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 18:55:00 | Kilbeggan | Jerandme (IRE) | 4380 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-4380-Chase- | 113 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 19:25:00 | Kilbeggan | Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) | 5500 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-5500-Chase- | 136 | 6 |
10/07/2020 | 19:55:00 | Kilbeggan | Talk Of The Town (IRE) | 3520 | Kilbeggan-National Hunt-3520-H Flat- | 83 | 6 |
Hi B Bertie123 , just dawned on me that you haven't been greened up yet and so not seeing some of the threads contained in the IS, I must remember to post on the open forum.
pinemarten
Sire
TheBluesBrother ,Your workload & your persistence in continuing to undertake such is hugely respected & admired.
Seeing a copy of your updated spreadsheet on say a once a week basis would be very much appreciated if that is at all possible.
Regards,
Well @mimrob
Golden Horde was in front of Khaadem as you predicted. Unfortunately for me Oxted was in front of both of them. I went back over it’s races and tried to find some reason where my figures weren’t accurate but every time Oxted was about 3 or 4 points/lbs behind until I decided to compare its runnings against handicaps on the same using the handicap race winners RPR for the race as the official rating wouldn’t be adjusted until a week or so later and I would have to guesstimate the increase whereas the RPR is a performance for that particular race. Also calculated the weight and time difference. I managed to come up with the following figures
Oxted 115
Golden Horde 113
khaadem. 111
Cant really believe this but if it’s correct then I might have to go back to June 1 st and start again
Golden Horde was in front of Khaadem as you predicted. Unfortunately for me Oxted was in front of both of them. I went back over it’s races and tried to find some reason where my figures weren’t accurate but every time Oxted was about 3 or 4 points/lbs behind until I decided to compare its runnings against handicaps on the same using the handicap race winners RPR for the race as the official rating wouldn’t be adjusted until a week or so later and I would have to guesstimate the increase whereas the RPR is a performance for that particular race. Also calculated the weight and time difference. I managed to come up with the following figures
Oxted 115
Golden Horde 113
khaadem. 111
Cant really believe this but if it’s correct then I might have to go back to June 1 st and start again
Last edited:
They are contentious in parts for sure. The Newmarket July course standard over a mile and a half hasn't been run to within a second of, ever. How can that be right?
TheBluesBrother
Dam
This is the one distance where the rail is always moved out for whatever reason, on Friday the rail was out by +22yds (1.69s).
Mike.
Last edited:
TheBluesBrother
Dam
pinemarten
Sire
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Going allowances RAR file: Speed Figures.rar
FLAT2018_2020: FLAT2018_2020.xlsx
NH2018_2020: NH2018_2020.xlsx
Mike
Think you hit the nail on the head, the RP standards were probably compiled before the rail movements came in late 2016, so they were done off times that in all honestly were mostly over different distances, it’s not like they just started moving rails around in 2016 it’s just thats when they started reporting them, also the courses were remeasured. In Ireland I think they don’t bother measuring at all something that was 1m 4f a few years ago could be 1m 3f and they wouldn’t have a clue because they have moved rails around 100s of times since.
pinemarten
Sire
Many thanks
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Dundalk's first meeting run on the newly re-laid all weather surface, I had the surface riding more towards standard to slow at -0.16s/f.
Mike.
Mike.
Last edited:
TheBluesBrother
Dam
The BHA started posting the rail movements back in December 2015, with reference to Dave Edwards standard times he has been in the game for over 30+ years and they were available back in 2010 when I first started.
The only Irish racecourse to have been measured was Galway, when the BHA were measuring the English racecourses Lorcan Wyer the clerk of the course at Galway hired a private firm to measure the Galway distances, to his horror he found out that the 2m1f chase distance was in fact 2m2f.
Mike.
mlmrob
Sire
Theres nothing wrong with your figures B Bertie123 and that example is a very intersting observation.
I doubt he was horrified because he is the clerk of the course at Sligo also and it’s very clear they don’t give a toss about what distance they are running over there .
TheBluesBrother
Dam
One of life's mysteries to me is? why do Bangor-on-Dee never publish rail movements, I can't remember the last time they did so, if ever...
The chase course was super quick riding at +0.57s/f.
Mike.
The chase course was super quick riding at +0.57s/f.
Mike.
They do publish rail movements. Last time they did so was 7th February 2020. That was their last meeting before the one yesterday. The rails movements only ever seem to affect the chase course, though.