Compiling Speed figures.

[Bertie123]

Not sure if anyone agrees but Que Amoro was very impressive to me at Ayr on Monday. Rated 107 she should be able to go up to group class next. She held her head quite high - I'm not convinced she'd want anything slower than good ground, but Dods always seems to find these quality sprinters!

Que Amoro last year on my time/ability was 105 and on speed and pace 98 (.02). (as my base for speed is 100 it is a pretty good speed rating.) This seasons first run was 102 and 93 (.08) and I expect it to come on leaps and bounds from that so must agree with you. Yes Dodds is very good with sprinters and can seem to get quite a few winning sequences going. I guess thats probably more to do with good placement of his runners. Here is a quote after the win at Ayr.
"Que Amoro has so much natural speed and burns them off by half way. She's got stronger over the winter and has been working well at home. She hasn't run for a while, so she'll improve for the outing. Hopefully we've found another aeroplane - Paul Mulrennan, jockey., "
Ratings for BATTAASH however at Ascot June 16th were time/ability 124 and an electrifying speed and pace of 111 (-.13). He looks to be on course for another brilliant season.

 

[tacker]

Hi J Jamie_E

You have to go back to 2003 and Mew Seeker who won the Britannia of BHA 87 and won NTO class 2 Hndicap off 95. I’m not saying a horse should be written off for winning the Britannia as some win after their NTO race, perhaps the Brittania takes it out of them for the NTO Race.

Looking at Quo Amoro

Listted would be a good option NTO

View attachment 85275

I have been running a Thread on the Blog which looks at Positives for Horses who have competed in Trend Races and their NTO chances

I might be wrong but i understood J Jamie_E to be making the point that the winner of the britannia is more likely to be forced to go up in grade and therefore harder to win with, re KHALOOSY 94 - 111, ONASSIS 81 - 87 so 24lb difference, fully expect both to do well.

 

[Jamie_E]

I might be wrong but i understood J Jamie_E to be making the point that the winner of the britannia is more likely to be forced to go up in grade and therefore harder to win with, re KHALOOSY 94 - 111, ONASSIS 81 - 87 so 24lb difference, fully expect both to do well.

Correct. Purely on figures Khaloosy stands a good chance of making the step up this season.

Fully respectful of the NTO trends, makes sense with the immediate step up in grade and a hard race behind them. Half the battle is trying to pick a horse when it's right so I'll definitely be checking the thread out.

 

[tacker]

Correct. Purely on figures Khaloosy stands a good chance of making the step up this season.

Fully respectful of the NTO trends, makes sense with the immediate step up in grade and a hard race behind them. Half the battle is trying to pick a horse when it's right so I'll definitely be checking the thread out.

So where next for KHALOOSY ? Sussex ?
Hell of a jump for a horse that's only run 3 times, all made more complicated this season with covid 19.

 

[tacker]

I cannot find one past winner of the Britannia who in the same season has gone on to win a Grp race irrespective of NTO

Ransom Note won a grp 3 following year

Quite few did not run again

Yep that's a worrying stat especially for a horse that won a modest maiden at wolves before his ascot win, if you can also ask questions about the sectionals then perhaps caution needed on my part.

 

[mlmrob]

The highest official rating of any horse by Dubawi out of a Dalakhani mare is 107 with the highest win 105. Not a lot of data but Khaloosy is probably Listed/Group 3 class.

However, the first nine home in the Britannia were drawn 19-17-2-21-26-22-20-23-27. That indicates to me that Cherokee Trail, drawn 2, is the one to take out of the race. The record of War Front's out of Galileo mares have a highest win OR of 117 and those with an OR of 100+ have returned 10-31. The "lads" who own Cherokee Trail are 8-24 with the lowest winning OR 100. The dam was third in the 1000 Guineas and fourth in the Oaks. Cherokee Trail looks to have a bright future.

 

[tacker]

The highest official rating of any horse by Dubawi out of a Dalakhani mare is 107 with the highest win 105. Not a lot of data but Khaloosy is probably Listed/Group 3 class.

However, the first nine home in the Britannia were drawn 19-17-2-21-26-22-20-23-27. That indicates to me that Cherokee Trail, drawn 2, is the one to take out of the race. The record of War Front's out of Galileo mares have a highest win OR of 117 and those with an OR of 100+ have returned 10-31. The "lads" who own Cherokee Trail are 8-24 with the lowest winning OR 100. The dam was third in the 1000 Guineas and fourth in the Oaks. Cherokee Trail looks to have a bright future.

mlmrob
It's good to see different opinions , in fact it's what forums ought to be about but i have to disagree that CHEROKEE is the one to take out of the race, he is a horse i know well having beaten IMRAHOR and HUKUM last year before finishing behind MILITARY MARCH at newm.
He plodded on well at ascot and did well to scrape into 3rd place but KHALOOSY on the same mark and drifting over to the far side took 8L out of him in just over a furlong and again only his 3rd race so fully entitled to improve whereas CT looks a little exposed to me.

 

[mlmrob]

Cherokee Trail would not have been suited by the track as War Front's have an awful record there.I can see him stepped up to 10f-12f and improve again.

Khaloosy was always going to like the track being a Dubawi. He too may benefit from being upped in distance.

 

[tacker]

T tacker See Compiling Speed figures.

Yeah i did read it earlier and i've also just read Simon Rowlands blog on ATR while watching sheff utd but just to repeat myself whatever the times might say i still believe them to be part of the overall form including what your eye tells you. The handicapper has put KHALOOSY up by 17lbs to 111 but left CHEROKEE TRAIL on 94 so opinions do vary as they should in this game and with a bit of luck others might offer theirs.

 

[mlmrob]

Khaloosy breaks new ground for Roger Varian but his record with horses that run in a handicap in their last race and rise between 1lb and 15lbs and enter Listed or Group company reads 16-86. That improves to 11-35 with horses whose OR has gone into three figures. Six of the last twelve have won stretching back three years. He is 9-13 with horses that didn't run at a ' Festival' last time as opposed to 2-22 with those that did.

 

[tacker]

Consideration needs to given to the fact that Cherokee Trail was giving Finest Sound 7 lbs as the horse raced off 87 but if the race had been held on the Saturday, Finest Sound would have run off 94

The BHA handicapper has used Finest Sound as the Benchmark to Rate Khaloosy and to leave Cherokee Trail on its Ascot mark

I've no idea if you're correct in that the handicapper has used FINAL SOUND has the benchmark Chesham but if he has then it's a mistake to increase the rating of KHALOOSY and not CHEROKEE TRAIL by that same 7lb.

 

[tacker]

Khaloosy breaks new ground for Roger Varian but his record with horses that run in a handicap in their last race and rise between 1lb and 15lbs and enter Listed or Group company reads 16-86. That improves to 11-35 with horses whose OR has gone into three figures. Six of the last twelve have won stretching back three years. He is 9-13 with horses that didn't run at a ' Festival' last time as opposed to 2-22 with those that did.

mlmrob Interesting stats that maybe add some weight to an earlier discussion I had with Chesham about varian's ability to win handicaps with horses that when you look back were thrown in but on little evidence, lets remember that KHALOOSY maiden win at wolves was ordinary at best but because it was varian you could back it with confidence (apparantly 17lbs well in). Back to the stats we would need to crawl over every horse and every piece of form to properly understand them but i'm of the view that varian simply looks at that handicap mark and gets the job done, a different stable with a in house stable jockey might consider more about the next mark but again repeating myself crowley rode a poor race in my view and connections are forced to aim higher than perhaps they needed.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Roscommon yesterday was another nightmare for speed figure compilers with all new fictitious race distances.
I swear I could hear the Roscommon clerk of the course laughing and saying "that'll f*** em", I fired up my trusty SPSS to work out the new race distance ratios.





Mike.

 

[Bertie123]

mlmrob Interesting stats that maybe add some weight to an earlier discussion I had with Chesham about varian's ability to win handicaps with horses that when you look back were thrown in but on little evidence, lets remember that KHALOOSY maiden win at wolves was ordinary at best but because it was varian you could back it with confidence (apparantly 17lbs well in). Back to the stats we would need to crawl over every horse and every piece of form to properly understand them but i'm of the view that varian simply looks at that handicap mark and gets the job done, a different stable with a in house stable jockey might consider more about the next mark but again repeating myself crowley rode a poor race in my view and connections are forced to aim higher than perhaps they needed.

Not sure whether I agree with the comment regarding Crowley. In such a competitive race its impossible for a jockey to give a horse an easy. Perhaps he could well have eased off when he hit the front but how many times do we see that and they caught on the line. It was a very valuable race and he is not going to take any chances or even think about the horse's future entries, at that stage he just wants to win the race for the trainer and owner, his employer. They must have had a god idea its handicap days were over even before it ran in the handicap at Ascot and there would be no need to protect it's "mark" imo.
Khaloosy will now have to take its chance in listed company and I think will run well. Whether it wins or not depends on who it is pitched against.

 

[tacker]

Ok I had CHEROKK

Not sure whether I agree with the comment regarding Crowley. In such a competitive race its impossible for a jockey to give a horse an easy. Perhaps he could well have eased off when he hit the front but how many times do we see that and they caught on the line. It was a very valuable race and he is not going to take any chances or even think about the horse's future entries, at that stage he just wants to win the race for the trainer and owner, his employer. It is what it is and Khaloosy will now have to take its chance in listed company and I think will run well. Whether it wins or not depends on who it is pitched against.

Cowley went from cruising to flat to the boards, surely a gear in between.

 

[Bertie123]

Cowley went from cruising to flat to the boards, surely a gear in between.

Its always a tricky one when trying to work out a Jockey's ride. It's very easy for us to voice our own opinion but riding a racehorse at speed doesn't give you much time to think, and not many jockeys would win Mastermind.

 

[Bertie123]

T tacker
Anyway Tacker how can I criticise his ride, I backed it at 9/1 lol

 

[tacker]

T tacker
Anyway Tacker how can I criticise his ride, I backed it at 9/1 lol

Didn't we all, VARIAN the man.

 

[Outlander]

Roscommon yesterday was another nightmare for speed figure compilers with all new fictitious race distances. I swear I could hear the Roscommon clerk of the course laughing and saying "that'll f*** em", I fired up my trusty SPSS to work out the new race distance ratios. View attachment 85298 View attachment 85299 Mike. TheBluesBrother where did your 1m 7f 80 yds come from ? racing post and HRB has 2m 47 yds my quadratic standards for yesterday threw up 3567 hurdle 225.53 4598 hurdle 296.89 5483 hurdle 361.98 3567 nhf 218.59

 

[TheBluesBrother]

@

TheBluesBrother where did your 1m 7f 80 yds come from ?
racing post and HRB has 2m 47 yds

It was from a meeting where every race distance was on the minus side, the 1m7f80y was not from yesterday's meeting.
Using quadratic equations doesn't really factor when dealing with Irish race distance anomallies, I prefer to use my distance calculator +linear curve estimations plus the most critical factor, my own artistic license.

Mike.