Compiling Speed figures.
- Thread starter TheBluesBrother
- Start date
Likewise but I would add to that Dark Vision who I rated with my experimental weight free ratings (103) with my new Pace ratings of a very fast overall pace of (-3) Must be bordering on Grp class after his win in the Hunt Cup.
Art Power (101) (.01) and Alpine Star (103) (-04)
My limited understanding of times/sectionals is that the fastest times will depend on there being an even pace, go too fast early and you will pay later, go too slow early and you get the opposite.
Athletes trying to break the 1500 mtr record would have various pacemakers trying to get the fractions right each lap and i recall brendan foster saying if they get the first lap wrong they will fail and on that occassion it did go wrong, complicating stuff but does this not demonstrate that understanding times without knowing the sectionals is just about impossible. imo
Chesham
Sire
I posted a series of Articles (USA) in 2014
Just scroll down after the first article , there are a few
Sectional times come to at the races
Just scroll down after the first article , there are a few
Sectional times come to at the races
I presume sectional times are available? I shall check out
Chesham post. But didn't the BHA experiment with sectionals and the trainers weren't too happy having to have a chip on the saddle or something, I vaguely remember.
Chesham
Sire
Sectional timing aim for all British courses by 2021 after Levy contributionI presume sectional times are available? I shall check out
Thanks Chesham about time when you think All American tracks have had sectionals for years. Good posts
ATR show them on their website.I presume sectional times are available? I shall check out
Sectionals straight mile ascot.....KHALOOSY V ONASSIS. going descibed as soft.
k...14.98 / 11.60 / 12.02 / 12.36 / 12.22 / 12.15 / 12.55 / 13.33 total =1m 41.22s
O..15.77 / 12.60 / 12.84 / 12.91 / 12.53 / 11.62 / 11.85 / 12.57 total = 1m 42.89s
When you watch KHALOOSY he appears to be flying in the last 2f but clearly not in comparrison to ONASSIS.
So the first 5 furlongs shows K to be running faster than O but it changes over for the last 3f, if this doesn't demonstrate the importance of pace i don't know what could. The american articles that chesham has put up might not seem be all that relevant over a straight mile but i would have thought it proves the point about the value of pace in the race, in fact there might be a case for allowing "sectionbals " to dominate your appraoach but at the moment i'm hanging on to the idea that they are still part of the overall pattern of reading form.
One last point i want to make is the riding of KHALOOSY by Crowley a jockey i like but it surprises me that he went from cantering to maximum effort just inside the 2 pole, this had the effect of unbalancing the horse and likely why he drifted to the right, yet he still won 4 1/2 and seem to take 10L or so out of most of the field, all a matter of opinion but worth a natter.
k...14.98 / 11.60 / 12.02 / 12.36 / 12.22 / 12.15 / 12.55 / 13.33 total =1m 41.22s
O..15.77 / 12.60 / 12.84 / 12.91 / 12.53 / 11.62 / 11.85 / 12.57 total = 1m 42.89s
When you watch KHALOOSY he appears to be flying in the last 2f but clearly not in comparrison to ONASSIS.
So the first 5 furlongs shows K to be running faster than O but it changes over for the last 3f, if this doesn't demonstrate the importance of pace i don't know what could. The american articles that chesham has put up might not seem be all that relevant over a straight mile but i would have thought it proves the point about the value of pace in the race, in fact there might be a case for allowing "sectionbals " to dominate your appraoach but at the moment i'm hanging on to the idea that they are still part of the overall pattern of reading form.
One last point i want to make is the riding of KHALOOSY by Crowley a jockey i like but it surprises me that he went from cantering to maximum effort just inside the 2 pole, this had the effect of unbalancing the horse and likely why he drifted to the right, yet he still won 4 1/2 and seem to take 10L or so out of most of the field, all a matter of opinion but worth a natter.
Chesham
Sire
Onassis is more likely to, win NTO from the Ascot Race, compared to Khaloosy . Intersting that the Race Comments suggest Khaloosy was quickening at the end but was just slowing down the least. Did run over 40MPH which I suspect caused the slowing down towards the end, took a lot out of the horse.
The NTO results for the winners of the race that Khaloosy won is 1/20 with Onassis it looks like they can progress to Listed and Grp NTO
The NTO results for the winners of the race that Khaloosy won is 1/20 with Onassis it looks like they can progress to Listed and Grp NTO
BHA now rate this horse 111.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
I think you've got this spot on J Jamie_E and further demonstrate that the numbers still need to be analysed or interpreted, watching the st james again you have to ask if aiden o'brien is over thinking the tactics to the point where he is spoiling the races.
Although I am of course a devout speed man, one of the most important aspects for me is to watch the replays of the last couple of furlongs of any horse I am rating or for a bet. Does the figure match the way the horse accelerated, yes sectionals can tell you the figures and they can confirm the speed, but sometimes you can spot a horse doing double handfuls and not quite getting there, or hampered, or wrong trip and win easy next time out at a good price. The figures by themselves can't reflect these instances. So of course although I agree all the tech information and calculations are important , for me , the final piece of the puzzle is always visual.
Hello T tacker
On my Time/ Ability ratings I would have KHALOOSY on 110 and on my experimental speed/pace I have 97 speed and .04 Pace. Whichever figures you use its without doubt this horse is potentially very smart. Of course I'm smug as I backed it at Ascot based on its win last year in a novice race at Wolverhampton by 4.5 lengths. It didnt record a great time it was just the way it won. Looked Class all over and so it proved.
I am leaning more towards my new speed and pace figures as although I have now a method which can give me figures comparable to the OR, I might as well use the OR as a back up to my new figures which are proving pretty good at the mo. I stress, at the mo !
Khaloosy, like most Britannia winners, will step up to group class but I think he's definitely capable. I rated his victory 107 which would be good enough to win a group 2. He has a much better chance of making his mark than last year's winner, Biometric who only rated 94 in winning the same race.
Onassis has been allotted a new mark of 87 so you'd think she will stick to handicaps. The way she quickened on arguably the slower side of the track from a slow pace (106.46 FS%) was impressive. She was only carrying 8-1 but I still think she might be able to be competitive off her new mark.
100%. You can't rely on numbers, they have to have context.
Not sure if anyone agrees but Que Amoro was very impressive to me at Ayr on Monday. Rated 107 she should be able to go up to group class next. She held her head quite high - I'm not convinced she'd want anything slower than good ground, but Dods always seems to find these quality sprinters!
Chesham
Sire
Hi
J
Jamie_E
You have to go back to 2003 and Mew Seeker who won the Britannia of BHA 87 and won NTO class 2 Hndicap off 95. I’m not saying a horse should be written off for winning the Britannia as some win after their NTO race, perhaps the Brittania takes it out of them for the NTO Race.
Looking at Quo Amoro
Listted would be a good option NTO
I have been running a Thread on the Blog which looks at Positives for Horses who have competed in Trend Races and their NTO chances
You have to go back to 2003 and Mew Seeker who won the Britannia of BHA 87 and won NTO class 2 Hndicap off 95. I’m not saying a horse should be written off for winning the Britannia as some win after their NTO race, perhaps the Brittania takes it out of them for the NTO Race.
Looking at Quo Amoro
Listted would be a good option NTO
I have been running a Thread on the Blog which looks at Positives for Horses who have competed in Trend Races and their NTO chances