Compiling Speed figures.

[TheBluesBrother]

VALENCE D'AUMONT ran out a convincing winner under a more positive ride. He's been hard to get right since joining Sue Smith, and pulled up at Uttoxeter ten days earlier. However, his best French form suggested he was on a good mark and it all clicked into play here. It'll be fascinating to see if he can build on it.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:


BRIGHAM YOUNG finished a respectable fourth of five in a better-class C&D handicap 13 days earlier. He appreciated the return to a bigger-field scenario from off the pace and came there tanking. The 5yo had to be brave to fend off a final challenger up his inner thereafter and that bodes well for the future.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Dance Jupiter has an entry in the last @ Dundalk on Friday.

The 8:30 race at Dundalk on Friday is the Irish equivalent of our C2, Dance Jupiter runs off an official rating of 89, if Joseph is serious about running him in the Lincoln, Dance Jupiter he will have to improve 13lbs between now and then to get into the race as the runner limit is 22.

Mike.

 

[pinemarten]

TheBluesBrother ,

The Irish have a woeful record in our Lincoln albeit from very few runners.
I note Joseph is bringing a few of his low grade h'pprs to run over here at the moment.
Whether that has any significance I would not know.

If declared I will be giving the race some thought.

Regards,

 

[TheBluesBrother]

ALMAZHAR GARDE made much of the running and powered on for an impressive success. He fell here last time and made mistakes in this race too, but he's only five and should learn in that department. He should continue on an upward trajectory for a while.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:


YOUNG FIRE latched onto the speedy tempo, coming down the centre of the track to win with something in hand. He reacted well to a visor last time and it worked again here. He stays further than this and should have more to come on the AW.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike.

 

[tacker]

It appears LOTS OF LUCK hasn't yet been reassessed, anyway back out today 2.01 hunt.

 

[Outlander]

THE DIFFERENCE THE WRONG TIME MAKES
So I decided to use my new National Hunt Ratings spreadsheets to see what difference the winning time makes to the ratings.
Initiated by davejb earlier comments on Skewiff at Carlisle.
I noticed for some meetings( I think ARC owned tracks ATR are compiling sectional data with what appear to be GPS tracker times so I assume these times are accurate but who knows).
I inputted the winning times according to RP, Timeform and ATR into my sheet and let it calculate ratings.
The following data is repeated for each different publishers winning time in the order above.
Look at the difference in the ratings
Bertie Blake (IRE) 83-86 range
Sincerely Resdev 68-70
Evander (IRE) 110-121
Valence DAumont (FR) 112-116
Let The Heirs Walk (IRE) 86-95
Sign Of War (IRE) 101-102
Miss Zip (IRE) 84-97
Hurdles GA 53-57 (53 = 0.53 sec/fur slow)
Chase GA 51-60

Exactly the same methodology only variable is the published win time, massive ranges in the ratings produced.

What is the point of trying to make accurate ratings that work well in future races?

race_date	racetime	track	going	horse_name	RP Time	Furlongs	STANDARD	GA	Rating
04/02/2020​	13:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Bertie Blake (IRE)	301.8​	19.81​	281.47​	57​	86​
04/02/2020​	13:55:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sincerely Resdev	303.65​	19.81​	281.47​	57​	68​
04/02/2020​	14:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Evander (IRE)	320.97​	21.11​	301.85​	57​	110​
04/02/2020​	15:00:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Valence DAumont (FR)	249.65​	16.44​	235.58​	60​	115​
04/02/2020​	15:30:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Let The Heirs Walk (IRE)	252.2​	16.77​	234.69​	57​	90​
04/02/2020​	16:05:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sign Of War (IRE)	422.3​	26.99​	396.95​	57​	102​
04/02/2020​	16:35:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Miss Zip (IRE)	333.9​	21.25​	311.98​	60​	96​
race_date	racetime	track	going	horse_name	TF Time	Furlongs	STANDARD	GA	Rating
04/02/2020​	13:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Bertie Blake (IRE)	301.4​	19.81​	281.47​	54​	86​
04/02/2020​	13:55:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sincerely Resdev	302.7​	19.81​	281.47​	54​	70​
04/02/2020​	14:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Evander (IRE)	318.2​	21.11​	301.85​	54​	121​
04/02/2020​	15:00:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Valence DAumont (FR)	248.6​	16.44​	235.58​	51​	112​
04/02/2020​	15:30:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Let The Heirs Walk (IRE)	252.6​	16.77​	234.69​	54​	86​
04/02/2020​	16:05:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sign Of War (IRE)	421.8​	26.99​	396.95​	54​	101​
04/02/2020​	16:35:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Miss Zip (IRE)	331.8​	21.25​	311.98​	51​	97​
race_date	racetime	track	going	horse_name	ATR Time	Furlongs	STANDARD	GA	Rating
04/02/2020​	13:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Bertie Blake (IRE)	301.74​	19.81​	281.47​	53​	83​
04/02/2020​	13:55:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sincerely Resdev	302.65​	19.81​	281.47​	53​	69​
04/02/2020​	14:25:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Evander (IRE)	318.17​	21.11​	301.85​	53​	120​
04/02/2020​	15:00:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Valence DAumont (FR)	248.62​	16.44​	235.58​	56​	116​
04/02/2020​	15:30:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Let The Heirs Walk (IRE)	250.8​	16.77​	234.69​	53​	95​
04/02/2020​	16:05:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Sign Of War (IRE)	421.38​	26.99​	396.95​	53​	101​
04/02/2020​	16:35:00​	Sedgefield	Soft	Miss Zip (IRE)	335.51​	21.25​	311.98​	56​	84​

 

[Outlander]

I want to trust Timeform because I think RP has more errors but look at that time of Miss Zip, no way did that horse run 331.8 , can tell that just from a cursory look at the video.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

SHISHKIN had been one of the favourites for the Supreme Hurdle next month prior to the off, and he enhanced his chances for that contest (Nicky Henderson confirmed that was his target after this win) with a dominating display, showing a good cruising speed, which is crucial for big races, before finding plenty when let down. Bookmakers made the son of Sholokhov top-priced 3-1 clear market leader for the aforementioned Cheltenham race following the success. It's not difficult to picture him involved in the finish, or even land the prize, but he will more than likely meet one or more horses already with a Grade 1 win in their profile there, so whether he should be favourite now is open to debate.

QUOTES: That was perfect. That's what you're trying to do and that's what those races are about. You're always nervous and they were very respectable opposition but SHISHKIN got a lot of gears. He will run in the Supreme next. I don't think we were ever seriously going down the Ballymore road. He's got lots of speed and is a two-miler - Nicky Henderson, trainer.

Yesterday's Top NH speed figures:


DANDYS GOLD, having her first run for 118 days and making a yard debut, was the subject of sustained support and duly obliged. Making her yard debut and well treated on her two Dundalk wins early last year, the mare travelled well and hit the front 1f out, and looked better the further she went. She gets 7f, so this stiff track helped.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike.

 

[Outlander]

This erroneous timing of National Hunt racing is now doing my head in, Timeform have corrected the mistake I mentioned regarding Miss Zip, so maybe they have someone double checking the timings.
Was looking at Thurles yesterday French Dynamite race timed by fast forwarding the video on RUK and to the nearest second I get 302, Timeform get 302.4 so that’s great
Cahirdown Down I get approx 365, Timeform 367.9, I will bet my life I’m closer with a 2 second cursory flick through the video
I got 354 for Sempo they got 354.2 the video and distance same as the Cahirdown Boy race.
More difficult to time was the bumper but I reckon 237.5 ish with only the the clock on the video, Timeform reckon 239.6, I reckon I’m closer again without a stopwatch.
There is a pole with striped tape about 20 yds before the starters rostrum, but the guy with the starting tape mechanism stands right next to the rostrum I assume this is the start and not the little pole 20yds earlier, but even if it the pole then Timeform have timed some races from the pole and others from the starter , so either way at 2 of the 4 races I looked at are at least 2 seconds out.
I don’t have time to check every race but if it was part of my job I wouldn’t be making these types of errors.
The 2 chases at the start of the card are also faster by approx 1.5 seconds than Timeform have them but this doesn’t matter too much because at least they are consistent with each other. I think they are timing from the path or the fence instead of the starter who is maybe 15 yds further forward than the path

 

[TheBluesBrother]

O Outlander

Try not to get too caught up with precise race timings, one or two seconds here falls into insignificance if your going allowances are pounds out.
Prior to the BHA measuring the official racecourse race distance, it was acceptable that the actual race distance should be within 110yds.

maybe they have someone double checking the timings.

I do believe that forum member Paceman P Paceman works for Timeform.

Mike.

 

[Paceman]

O Outlander TheBluesBrother

O Outlander

Try not to get too caught up with precise race timings, one or two seconds here falls into insignificance if your going allowances are pounds out.
Prior to the BHA measuring the official racecourse race distance, it was acceptable that the actual race distance should be within 110yds.



I do believe that forum member Paceman P Paceman works for Timeform.

Mike.

Yes I do and it was me that changed the time this morning and recalculated the timefigures. The responsibilty for timing each race is with the person who is reporting on the race. There are clear instructions to time the race from the point the runners pass the starter, so I'm not sure why the Miss Zip time was incorrect when the runners were stood by the starter anyway.

I'll check the Thurles times you mentioned and make any necessary changes.

Thanks

 

[davejb]

Out of interest P Paceman how is the race reporter actually doing the timing? Do they watch the big monitor, go down to the start, or what? Having swapped emails with RP a number of times the issue of timing the first to pass the starter has arisen quite often, and whilst I can understand occasional problems if trying to time from video - broadcasters seem to delight in picking camera angles that minimise the viewer's chances of picking the precise moment of the start (I'm surprised they don't make a complete job of it and simply film the queue in the bar for 30s or so, just to make it completely impossible) - if I were responsible for race timing I'd make sure I did all I could to do a good job of it.... the impression I have is that the race reporters (from whatever company) don't think it matters that much in NH, whilst electronic timing covers the flat nicely.

There was a report a few months back that said electronic timing of NH was on the way this year - I for one can't wait!

Good luck with making the corrections, it's a bit of a thankless job I suspect.
Dave

 

[Outlander]

Out of interest P Paceman how is the race reporter actually doing the timing? Do they watch the big monitor, go down to the start, or what? Having swapped emails with RP a number of times the issue of timing the first to pass the starter has arisen quite often, and whilst I can understand occasional problems if trying to time from video - broadcasters seem to delight in picking camera angles that minimise the viewer's chances of picking the precise moment of the start (I'm surprised they don't make a complete job of it and simply film the queue in the bar for 30s or so, just to make it completely impossible) - if I were responsible for race timing I'd make sure I did all I could to do a good job of it.... the impression I have is that the race reporters (from whatever company) don't think it matters that much in NH, whilst electronic timing covers the flat nicely.

There was a report a few months back that said electronic timing of NH was on the way this year - I for one can't wait!

Good luck with making the corrections, it's a bit of a thankless job I suspect.
Dave

Dave I wonder if the electronic timing is already here but it’s just for ARC tracks, I notice ATR have sectional data with gps timing for the ARC NH tracks now on their website.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Legal Eyes, returning from a wind operation, jumped and galloped his rivals into submission. Successful at Plumpton on soft ground in October prior to pulling up with a breathing problem at Sandown, he skipped over this drying ground and never looked in any danger as he recorded easily the best comparable time of the day. Rated 4lb above his Plumpton win, his connections will be bracing themselves for a much heftier rise once reassessed. The Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals are under consideration for him, the Close Brothers Handicap next month considered the ideal race.

On The Slopes, who'd caught the eye over an extended 2m4f at Cheltenham 13 days earlier, bossed this from the outset and won in taking fashion. Soon into a good rhythm, he repeatedly outjumped his rivals and found plenty in the straight when Leighton Aspell went through the gears. This was a first win for him over fences at the sixth attempt, though he's been extremely consistent, running to RPRs inexcess of 131 in four of his previous five chases. He'll be well suited by a strong gallop over 2m, so the Grand Annual at the festival will likely be given serious thought.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:


SAN ANDREAS led from early and could have been called the winner from some way out. He had a length or two entering the straight without his rider having gone for anything, and when he asked him the horse lengthened and responded. He has tried his hand at stakes level without success, he could be ready for a return to that level now and he could be set for an interesting season.

TONE THE BARONE led the main bunch in pursuit of the runaway leader before quickening up in the straight and drawing clear for a very easy win. He's clearly improved for a wind op since he last ran in August and looks well ahead of his mark. A quick reappearance might be in order.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike.

 

[Paceman]

Out of interest P Paceman how is the race reporter actually doing the timing? Do they watch the big monitor, go down to the start, or what? Having swapped emails with RP a number of times the issue of timing the first to pass the starter has arisen quite often, and whilst I can understand occasional problems if trying to time from video - broadcasters seem to delight in picking camera angles that minimise the viewer's chances of picking the precise moment of the start (I'm surprised they don't make a complete job of it and simply film the queue in the bar for 30s or so, just to make it completely impossible) - if I were responsible for race timing I'd make sure I did all I could to do a good job of it.... the impression I have is that the race reporters (from whatever company) don't think it matters that much in NH, whilst electronic timing covers the flat nicely.

There was a report a few months back that said electronic timing of NH was on the way this year - I for one can't wait!

Good luck with making the corrections, it's a bit of a thankless job I suspect.
Dave

O Outlander If they are at the track they are the best placed to make that decision; if not they will be mostly be timing races via 'live' pics. I suspect that a lot of the discrepancies occur when races are timed from replays which quite often aren't quite what you get live. Hopefully, everyone is aware that the times need to be as accurate as possible seeing as there is no official time over jumps. The ATR sectional times can be helpful in this regard, though they don't often appear until a couple of days after the meeting.

 

[pinemarten]

TheBluesBrother,

Dance Jupiter bypassed the 8.30 Dundalk yesterday.

I note Joseph won with his other entry namely San Andreas.

He'll know exactly how the 2 rate at home which makes the reappearance of DJ all the more interesting!

Regards,

 

[TheBluesBrother]

ROUGE VIF tracked the pace, jumping soundly, and saw it out strongly after going on three out. The tongue-tie extracted more improvement from him and he is a high-class novice who'll be worth his place in whichever Cheltenham event he turns up in. He'd probably get the 2m4f of the Marsh, but the strongly run two miles in the Racing Post Arkle should be up his street. Saint Calvados, connections' winner of this in 2018, finished a well beaten fourth in the Arkle.

QUOTES: ROUGE VIF is a proper horse and I love him to bits. He's a great character and would run through a brick wall for you. I was really confident coming into this as the form of his Kempton run is so solid. He's an excellent jumper - such a natural - and he's so quick. The better the ground, the better he is and he was very good today. I always feel he gets a little underestimated and he's a massive price for the Arkle. We've always felt he's an Arkle horse and he's tough as nails. Andrew and Kate (Brooks) put so much into the game and deserve all the success they are having - Harry Whittington, trainer.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:


ALMUFTI, strong in the market, was patiently ridden and found the gaps open when desperately needed up the inside rail to win comfortably. He's now 2/2 over C&D and clearly very useful when things fall right.

Silent Attack, up 3lb for his recent C&D success, when he beat Goring, finished well on the outside of the pack but found the winner, who'd got lucky up the inside and was receiving 15lb, too strong for him in the final stages.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike.

 

[Graeme]

TheBluesBrother

Hi Mike

Please excuse the question as although I use commercially available speed figures in my race selections I have an interest in eventually building my own when I have more time available but I would be grateful if you could help me understand something from the figures above.

If you look at the 15:35 race at Newbury - Pic D'Orhy won and is rated 126 - Ciel De Neige came 2nd by a 3/4 length and is rated 114 and is in turn rated lower than other horses CDN beat - I don't quite understand how that can be.

I am sure there is an explanation but for the love of me my simple brain cell cant quite see what that could be - are you able to shed some light for me please?

Thanks

Graeme

 

[TheBluesBrother]

If you look at the 15:35 race at Newbury - Pic D'Orhy won and is rated 126 - Ciel De Neige came 2nd by a 3/4 length and is rated 114 and is in turn rated lower than other horses CDN beat - I don't quite understand how that can be.

Quite simply, Pic D'Orhy carried 11lb (159lbs) more than Ciel De Neige (148lbs) who was beaten 0.75 lengths (1 rounded up), so for Ciel De Neige you subtract 12lbs (11lb + 1) from Pic D'Orhy 126 speed figure, so Ciel De Neige speed figure = 114

I am very lucky when it comes down to the speed figures per race calculations. I can rate every race per day in a millisecond using an Excel tool written for me by Dave davejb.



Mike.

 

[Baywing]

TheBluesBrother

Hi Mike

Please excuse the question as although I use commercially available speed figures in my race selections I have an interest in eventually building my own when I have more time available but I would be grateful if you could help me understand something from the figures above.

If you look at the 15:35 race at Newbury - Pic D'Orhy won and is rated 126 - Ciel De Neige came 2nd by a 3/4 length and is rated 114 and is in turn rated lower than other horses CDN beat - I don't quite understand how that can be.

I am sure there is an explanation but for the love of me my simple brain cell cant quite see what that could be - are you able to shed some light for me please?

Thanks

Graeme

The figures are adjusted for weight