• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

Compiling Speed figures.

TheBluesBrother said:
One horse from yesterday's meetings went into my tracker and that was the Gordon Elliot trained bumper winner Queens Brook, what this mare achieved in the conditions gave me a major WTF moment.
In my book any bumper winner that can achieve a speed figure of 110 is top class, due to the pace of the race plus the conditions and other factors taken into account, my speed figure of 93 does not reflect how good I think this horse is, in a true run race on better ground Queens Brook's speed figure would be up around the 130 mark.
I think that this horse's performance yesterday certainly caught the connections out as she has no major race entries, if you haven't watched the race do so.

QUEENS BROOK looks a quality mare. Held up early on, she made steady headway to dispute the lead turning in, and when she was asked to go and win her race the response became every more impressive and at the line she was further clear than at any other point of the race, and the way her ears were pricked all the way to the line demonstrated how much she had in the tank. She doesn't go to Cheltenham apparently, this evidence suggests she would not be out of place there.

QUOTES: QUEENS BROOK is a good mare we think. We were a bit worried today with the ground as heavy as it was. We think a lot of her. She won't go to Cheltenham, the obvious races for her are the mares bumpers at Aintree and maybe Fairyhouse. I think she'll go on most ground - Gordon Elliott, trainer

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
View attachment 81923

JACK THE TRUTH had been off since September but he goes well fresh. He finished his race off strongly and on this evidence is better than ever.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
View attachment 81924

View attachment 81925

Mike.
Click to expand...
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother what do you reckon to Cilaos Emery for the Champion Hurdle, must have put himself bang in the picture with that run, it doesn’t look like Bernie De Dieux will be running judging by the exchanges, I rated Cilaos 164 on Saturday the highest of any of the likely contenders, exception Honeysuckle with her mares allowance, probably still a fair price 9/1 I see on betfair and a probable runner now after that.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
O Outlander

Cilaos Emery must have a serious chance, attached is my speed figures and card for the race.

Mike.
Click to expand...
Thanks looks like around 130 would be where you would sit up and take notice on your figures for a race like the Champion Hurdle and that’s what you gave him on Saturday. I’ve been watching the odds of Benie De Sieux on the exchanges and was about 50 then Saldier and Klassical Dream pulled out the odds came into around 8/1 and at that stage looked like could be Mullins horse for the race, but now she has drifted back out to 25 and Cilaos Emery seems to have been promoted to the stables big hope and then produced a rating on Saturday that would give you some confidence.
 
SIR OLIVER, having his first run since a gelding operation, has been something of a slow burner but he'd run a promising race at Chelmsford when last seen in November and he proved well suited by this first crack at 5f. He was harried for the lead in the early stages, again taking a keen hold, but he had his rivals in trouble turning for home and he was far too strong in the final furlong. He's capable of better at this trip and he travels well enough to think he can develop into a very useful handicapper.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

MULTELLIE set the standard on form, already boasting a course win, and promised to be even better upped to this distance, yet proved weak in the market. Despite this, he looked the winner from a long way out and, once allowed to stride on, quickly came clear. He could make a useful handicapper over this sort of trip.

CAPTAIN ZEBO made it 4-4 since joining John Dixon from Ireland and it's clear an opening mark of 130 underestimated him. He only managed three runs for Mouse Morris (switched to Gordon Elliot afterwards but didn't run for him) but it seems all he needed was a little time and, despite an 11-month absence, he hammered his rivals. Setting off in a detached last, he'd made a rapid forward move to take over before halfway and pulled away from the favourite in between the last two hurdles. This was just his eighth start and, although the handicapper is sure to make life more difficult, he could well be up to landing a valuable handicap, with Aintree in April a possible destination.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

170220.png

Flat: FlatTurf2018.xlsx

AW: AW2018_2019.xlsx

Mike.
 
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TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother,

A request if I may.

IMHO the 3.10 Newcastle (tomorrow) is the best handicap to have been run on the AW this winter so far.

If it is not too time consuming is there any chance you could provide your ratings for each runner similar to what you recently did for the Champion Hurdle & Lincoln Hcap.

If it is too big a job then of course no problem.

Kind regards,
 
Hi TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother - thank you. I've enjoyed reading your daily updates with the key performances of the day.

Sadly I'm no excel expert, is there a way I can make the cards up based on your ratings please? At the moment, if I'm interested in a race I go the excel sheet, and sort using the "horse" tab. My daughter tipped me off on that. And it works. I can work through and get all the runners in the race. Just wondering if there is another program or something that I could use in conjunction with your spreadsheet, which would save me doing this manually. Thanking you - or happy to be redirected to post this same question in another "tech" thread.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
It only takes a minute...

View attachment 81992

Mike.
Click to expand...
Don’t know how you store your ratings but as you use weight adjusted like myself you can of course store them in the My Ratings page in the Racing Post. You can also adjust the lbs per length and it does the calc for the beaten lengths and weight. On the Pro Card Tab you can have the settings show your ratings (MR) on the card which will be weight adjusted for that race. I am sure you know this and I guess you must have a reason not to do this.
It is a very competitive handicap and I have them all within a lb or two of each other . I am hopeful YOUNG FIRE (113 weight adjusted to my rating of 94, OR 92) might go well as I have this only 2 lbs below KEYZER SOZE (115 weight adjusted) who is top rated and won this race last year and ran well first time out after a 50 odd day break. At the prices 10/1 and 9/2 I will probably have a little on both. I enjoy reading your posts.
 
Bertie123 said:
I am sure you know this and I guess you must have a reason not to do this.
Click to expand...

I have two methods on how I store my ratings, I have one set that are stored on the Racing Post server ref the card I have posted above, and the speed figures that I post on here that are not corrupted by WFA.

If you use the ratings tool in the member's area of the RP I hope you realised that the lbs per length figures they use per race are incorrect they are nothing like the scale which the BHA use, the lbs per length figures I use are calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

BHA.PNG

Mike.
 
RUN WILD FRED raced just off the pace initially, went to the front before the third last and was asked to go and stretch his rivals soon after. He looked like he would be seriously challenged at the final flight but he really pulled out plenty and in the end his ears were nicely pricked and he seemed to have a good bit left in the tank. He's a nice horse, a proper stayer and would certainly not be out of place in an Albert Bartlett.

QUOTES: RUN WILD FRED is a grand galloping horse and I thought he won snug enough. We'll see where we go with him, he could go to Cheltenham but there is plenty of good prize-money here at home too - Gordon Elliott, trainer.

CHRISTOPHER WOOD had some very useful form as a juvenile last term and was down in class here after contesting a couple of warm races in November. Given a breathing operation since his last appearance, and dropped 5lb, he impressed with the way he came away on the run-in. He handles better ground and could be one for nice handicaps in the spring. Paul Nicholls has won with seven of his 13 Musselburgh runners this month.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

ASTRO JAKK bounced at Newcastle last time when reappearing less than 24 hours after running a big pb over this C&D. Given a break since, he returned off a 7lb higher mark, but showed he's improving by defying it a shade cosily. There's more to come from him.

Moveonup, back on the Fibresand, showed good speed from the off but was being hassled the whole way unlike when making all in a much lower grade here last month. It was a fine effort given he was racing from out of the handicap, and he'll hold obvious claims back here in a Class 5 off 65 on Thursday.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

180220.png

Mike.
 
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TheBluesBrother said:
I have two methods on how I store my ratings, I have one set that are stored on the Racing Post server ref the card I have posted above, and the speed figures that I post on here that are not corrupted by WFA.

If you use the ratings tool in the member's area of the RP I hope you realised that the lbs per length figures they use per race are incorrect they are nothing like the scale which the BHA use, the lbs per length figures I use are calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

View attachment 82014

Mike.
Click to expand...
OK Thanks Mike
 
I have always puzzled over going allowances. If all the runners have posted race times above standard how can the going allowance be added on to this? Is it a projected method by way of a horse of this class should run that time etc? I currently use the RP but have tried to "average" out the per furlong figures for all races but this becomes a bit hit or miss.
 
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Sporting Boy Ascot Saturday, I see you have a different going allowance for this horse, the RP win time is 288.12, timed to the nearest 100th of a second to imply accuracy, I timed it at 295.3 with an online stopwatch difference of over 7 seconds, there is no way this horse ran anywhere near 288.12 this is absolute fiction despite the the mythical timing to 100th of a second.
 
Bertie123 said:
If all the runners have posted race times above standard how can the going allowance be added on to this?
Click to expand...

The going allowance determines how fast the racing surface was riding, was it speeding up or slowing the runners down.

Southwell2.png

After assessment, I determined the fibresand surface yesterday was riding +0.30s/f.


Southwell.png

Fast +0.50s/f
Std-Fast +0.25s/f
Standard 0.00s/f
Standard to slow -0.25s/f

Mike.
 
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O Outlander

As you said I had already noticed something was wrong by the going allowance I used, if you think that I am going to sit there and time every race forget it.
The conditions on the day at Ascot on Saturday deteriorated as the meeting went on, so worrying about accurate times when they are slopping through the mud isn't worth the time or effort, as I have said many times you could lose more than 7 seconds by getting the going allowance wrong.

Mike.
 
ELFILE had some competition for the lead and it might just have helped light her up a bit. On the final circuit, she perhaps settled a little better and Danny Mullins was able to take a lead before she was left in front again three out. When the favourite came to tackle her though, she found plenty and went on again after the last. On this ground, this trip might just be as far as she wants to go, but she has certainly earned her trip now to the mares hurdle at Cheltenham. She is uncomplicated and genuine.

QUOTES: ELFILE is a mare that's improving and probably has a future over fences next season, and the longer the trip the better. It wasn't easy to make the running out there and she did it well - Willie Mullins, trainer

BEAN IN TROUBLE, who chased home a useful type last time, made a successful handicap debut. He needed some stoking along, but responded to win going away in the end and won't mind going back up in trip.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

Oh This Is Us, won on AW finals day last term and looks to be coming into form after this game run. He came on plenty for his recent effort, holding every chance 1f out.

TREACHEROUS had overcome both a careful start and a blocked run in landing a C&D Class 4 here three days earlier, and necessarily did so once more here en route to a seventh course success. These two career-best pieces of form are likely better than the bare margins of victory either time might suggest, and the second hat-trick in barely a year can't be ruled out whilst he continues to thrive.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

190220.png

Mike.
 
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