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Compiling Speed figures.

tapie93

Yearling
@TheBluesBrother,

I need an explanation about which horse to play in a race among its speed figures notes.
Following the notes from the old races, how far do you stop on this horse and not another one?
What should we take first?

thank you for the advice
 
I need an explanation about which horse to play in a race among its speed figures notes.
Following the notes from the old races, how far do you stop on this horse and not another one? What should we take first?
There is simply no way to answer your question, it simply boils down to personnel preferences on what you consider important in your selections.
I have had horses well clear on my speed figures that have got beaten, a recent example was Jorvik Prince at Chelmsford on the 7th he finished 5th beaten 2.5 lengths, I see he has an entry at Wolverhampton tomorrow.

Mike.
 
Thanks both - so obvious really I should have seen that - cheers
There are people who do not take any notice of the weight carried when compiling their figures, they just multiply the beaten lengths by the pounds per length for that distance.

For the 2m69yd trip at Newbury, I use 0.88 lbs per length.

So the calculation for Ciel De Nige adjustment would be 0.75 x 0.88 = 0.66 (1lb rounded up), subtracting that from Pic D'Orhy speed figure of 126 = 125, so you have.

Pic D'Orhy - 126
Ciel De Nige -125

Newb.PNG

Mike.
 
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JORVIK PRINCE, beaten over 6f at Chelmsford last week, proved suited by the drop back to this trip and he bettered that effort to return to winning ways in the first-time hood, despite edging towards the far rail late on. He's the type that can win again for this yard.

Wednesday, 12 February, 2020
Jorvick.PNG
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

CALVA D'AUGE, carrying a double penalty, held off his younger opponent to score in determined style. This useful novice has posted two of his three wins in heavy ground over C&D, but he won't mind better conditions underfoot.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
NH.png

100220.png

Mike.
 
The winning times returned from Newcastle AW last night were bad.

TONE THE BARONE got on top without Adam Kirby resorting to the stick and followed up his comeback win over C&D last week, making it 2-2 on the AW. The 4yo was expected to win more readily, being 4lb ahead of the handicapper under a penalty. However, early interference didn't help and ultimately he's value for a bit further.

KIND REVIEW is a progressive sort who turned in an improved display to win on his second AW start. He travelled strongly and should remain competitive after reassessment.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:

AW.png

110220.png

Mike.
 
LOVE YOUR WORK came in for strong support on this stable debut and slammed his rivals, paying off a good chunk of his £10,000 price tag. His two previous wins here came over 1m off marks in the 70s, and a change of scenery has evidently done him a lot of good. The 4yo is entered back here on Friday.

True Belief once again came up a bit short, this time after his challenge was delayed a fraction too long after getting caught in traffic early in the straight. Things will drop right one of these days.


Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

120220.png

Speed figures: Updated daily.
AW: AW2018_2019.xlsx
NH: NH2018_2019.xlsx

Mike.
 
DA VINCI, a Golden Horn colt who cost 40,000gns as a yearling, is closely related to 1m2f winner My Twinkle (RPR 81), half-brother to six winners including Mufarrh (7f-9.5f including UAE AW; 117) and Partner Shift (1m including Listed 103). Seemingly not fancied in the betting on his debut having been 8-1 in the morning, he did all his best work in the home straight and nudged to the front close to the line. One would imagine there will be improvement to come.

Pitcher's Point, up in trip on first try at this distance, got to the lead, travelled kindly while there but he couldn't shake off the winner as he closed in. The front two were well clear of the third, so this probably wasn't a bad performance, for all that he had an easy time in front.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:

AW.png

FIRST FLOW, just 1lb higher than when second in a stronger handicap at Sandown recently, had little trouble disposing of three inferior rivals and came right away from the last (usual two out) despite carrying his head awkwardly. He's a likeable type who looks capable of further progress, although it remains to be seen whether the handicapper overreacts to this 17l win.

CALTEX, one of a number of horses his owner has moved recently from Claire Dyson to Michael Scudamore, ran out a very easy winner. He had become well handicapped and coped with the extreme conditions better than anything else.


Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

130220.png

Mike.
 
ADNAP didn't have it easy here. He was not that smartly away and was caught in behind horses early in the straight. His rider had to be patient but such is the confidence with which he is riding that he just waited for the gap to appear and when it came the horse responded well. He won this with a bit of authority and he looks like a horse that could well defy a penalty.

EMRAAN, who won nicely here on his debut, again finished his race off well. It was a good move on his rider's part to hold his position running down the hill, forcing the runner-up three wide into the straight.

BADRI shaped as though he'd be suited by this step up to 7f when scoring over six here last time, but he was particularly weak in the market beforehand. He defied the negative vibes, though, and despite being a bit keen early he picked up well in the straight to run down the long time leader. There's probably more to come from him.


Yesterday's Top AW speed figures:
AW.png

GREANETEEN has rapidly made up into a smart and very likeable young chaser, winning this in fluent style from the front. A terrifically nimble jumper who'll be well worth his place in Graded races, he's quite a keen type but he doesn't need to lead and will be suited by races run at a sound gallop. Harry Cobden was sweet on him afterwards and suggested bypassing Cheltenham and waiting for Aintree. Either way, the gelding's one to keep on the right side.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

140220.png

Mike.
 
One horse from yesterday's meetings went into my tracker and that was the Gordon Elliot trained bumper winner Queens Brook, what this mare achieved in the conditions gave me a major WTF moment.
In my book any bumper winner that can achieve a speed figure of 110 is top class, due to the pace of the race plus the conditions and other factors taken into account, my speed figure of 93 does not reflect how good I think this horse is, in a true run race on better ground Queens Brook's speed figure would be up around the 130 mark.
I think that this horse's performance yesterday certainly caught the connections out as she has no major race entries, if you haven't watched the race do so.

QUEENS BROOK looks a quality mare. Held up early on, she made steady headway to dispute the lead turning in, and when she was asked to go and win her race the response became every more impressive and at the line she was further clear than at any other point of the race, and the way her ears were pricked all the way to the line demonstrated how much she had in the tank. She doesn't go to Cheltenham apparently, this evidence suggests she would not be out of place there.

QUOTES: QUEENS BROOK is a good mare we think. We were a bit worried today with the ground as heavy as it was. We think a lot of her. She won't go to Cheltenham, the obvious races for her are the mares bumpers at Aintree and maybe Fairyhouse. I think she'll go on most ground - Gordon Elliott, trainer


Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

JACK THE TRUTH had been off since September but he goes well fresh. He finished his race off strongly and on this evidence is better than ever.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

150220.png

Mike.
 

tacker

Colt
There were 3 races over 3m hurdles yesterday and it highlighted the importance of having pace in the race when it comes analysing times.
The 2.5 had 2 front runners in there and that meant they went a decent pace whereas in 3.50 there was a crawl.
 
There were 3 races over 3m hurdles yesterday and it highlighted the importance of having pace in the race when it comes analysing times. The 2.5 had 2 front runners in there and that meant they went a decent pace whereas in 3.50 there was a crawl.
A very true statement indeed...

A more important factor to take into consideration ref to the 3 races run on the Haydock's Lancaster chase course, the races were run over a distance that were -160yards (10.66s), after my final assessment this resulted in 2 going allowances.

Mike.
 
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tacker

Colt
Bothered to look at all three races again and tried to do a bit of hand timing about both the early part of each race and the latter, to be precise timed from the start to jumping the first hurdle and 4th last to finishing post.

start to 1st..............................................................4th last to post...........................official finishing time

2 .05 .... 1m. 5s..............................................................................1m. 37s....................................6m. 17 .20s
3.50 .... 1m .20s...........................................................................1m. 32s.....................................6m .41. 50s
4.35 .... 1m. 8s.............................................................................1m. 43s.................................... 6m .26 30s

Only rough timing but i do believe this confirms just how slow they went in the early part of the race of the 3.50, after that all too complicated.
Time for the pub.
 
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TREACHEROUS, all the better for his return at Newcastle, repeated last year's win in this race. Dropped in off the pace, he was keen enough but quickened well in the closing stages to win comfortably. He's now a six-time winner round here and won this in the manner of a horse who can defy another modest rise.

Wiley Post, 4lb higher for his C&D win last time out, didn't get an entirely clear run at things but was rallying at the finish. He should remain competitive.


Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

Ballyadam was very strongly fancied on the basis of his maiden point win for Colin McKeever at Portrush in October. He did not help his cause by racing a bit keenly in such testing conditions, but was still going really well into the straight, before failing to raise his effort as the winner reasserted. Best not to judge him too harshly.

Yesterday's Top NH speed figures:
NH.png

160220.png

Mike.
 
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