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Compiling Speed figures.

Judging by your post I doubt there are many cleverer than you. Excellent
Bertie123
Gotta laugh at this, I once took one of those online IQ tests that concluded I was on the top 2 percentile on a par with Einstein, unfortunately the truth is the best I got was a B in gcse maths , and been betting in-running so long now I’m unemployable.If I had any brains I managed to waste them nearly totally.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
Gotta laugh at this, I once took one of those online IQ tests that concluded I was on the top 2 percentile on a par with Einstein, unfortunately the truth is the best I got was a B in gcse maths , and been betting in-running so long now I’m unemployable.If I had any brains I managed to waste them nearly totally.
I remember seeing some guys at Newbury who hired a box and all got their laptops out and were betting in running using the TV in the box which of course was live time and not delayed by 5 or 10 Seconds. I think they had it off as there was a lot of cheering. I tried in running but watching it on Betfair even with Geek interface I never got it right ! I only bet on my time rating horses, although I do bet on Betfair Sportsbook as they do best price. I stopped betting with bookmakers years ago. I also stopped betting on stable information of which I was and still am party too. All you get are the hot pot favourites but rarely the big priced ones. Unfortunately most stable lads and lasses love their own horses so much forget there are other horse in the same race that have also been “burning up the gallops”
regards
Bertie123
 

Paceman

Yearling
I get the impression from your posts that you think I am a newbie at compiling speed figures, with regards to RPR figures and comparing them against their official ratings, years ago I developed my own RPR to OR conversion table using SPSS from a database of 33,600 races.

With regards to Andrew Beyer, he didn't develope his method of speed figures, it was a Harvard maths graduate friend of his Sheldon Kovitz who taught him, yes I do use .02 as a length (10ft Horse) and these days I have incorporated constants into my calculations, the lbs per length figures I use are mine calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

I won't talk about Nick Mordin, to me, he is nothing more than the master of smoke and mirrors, as for Timeform, do they compile speed figures for national hunt racing, as far as I am aware the answer is no.

Mike.

Some of my work.
Yes they do Mike....have done for last 5yrs...include all added yards...also incorporate sectional upgrades into them as well... and above all that don't return timefigures from Irish NH courses where the standards are a complete guess from which the going allowances that derive from them have to be as well
 
I remember seeing some guys at Newbury who hired a box and all got their laptops out and were betting in running using the TV in the box which of course was live time and not delayed by 5 or 10 Seconds. I think they had it off as there was a lot of cheering. I tried in running but watching it on Betfair even with Geek interface I never got it right ! I only bet on my time rating horses, although I do bet on Betfair Sportsbook as they do best price. I stopped betting with bookmakers years ago. I also stopped betting on stable information of which I was and still am party too. All you get are the hot pot favourites but rarely the big priced ones. Unfortunately most stable lads and lasses love their own horses so much forget there are other horse in the same race that have also been “burning up the gallops”
regards
Bertie123
I bet from home using the video and done well with the disadvantage, now on 50% premium charge so can’t really place pre race bets with Betfair any more, the in running is as tough as it’s ever been now and getting worse the the whole time
 
GOOBINATOR was allowed his head after the first and could have been called the winner turning into the home straight. He's made a bright start to life over hurdles this season and is quickly becoming a likeable performer. Returning to a left-handed circuit could be ideal and he's now qualified for valuable handicaps, although connections are reportedly not so keen on the Fred Winter at Cheltenham next month.

QUOTES: We bought GOOBINATOR and Navajo Pass as yearlings and they just grew and grew and grew. This horse is still learning and is still quite raw and I wouldn't have thought he'd be ready for the hustle and bustle of the festival yet. He's a longer-term prospect and I think he's going to be quite useful - Donald McCain, trainer.


Yesterday's Top NH speed figures:
NH.png

VIA SERENDIPITY was too keen when beaten by Another Touch in a tactical affair at Newcastle last time. In contrast, the good gallop here suited him well and he finished strongly.

Fox Power had a good tow into the contest but couldn't quite hold off the winner in the closing stages. He's rated 6lb lower than him but had to give him 3lb here so it was a good effort in defeat.


Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

030220.png

Mike.
 
When I am not working on my speed figures my other interest is updating my chess youtube channel with 3D videos, the top players in the world ELO ratings are around 2800, the videos I post show what it would be like to play at the 3000+ level, playing against Fritz 16 set at Grandmaster level.
The main reason I started doing this was to build an openings book minus the errors, it really was an eye-opener to see the chess engines moves.


Mike.
 
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davejb

Mare
@TheBluesBrother and @Outlander
Carlisle yesterday - RP piggsed the times again, Skewiff in the 4.00 they have as 5:54.1 when it's more like 5:48, all of the others are 1.0s to 2.0s slower than reality by their timings, 2.20 and 2.55 were 2s faster than RP 'measured'. I'm guessing their guy up north did Leopardstown or Musselburgh on Saturday and cloud cover interfered with his sundial reading.

Timeform times are much closer for this meeting, again.
Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Hi Mike @TheBluesBrother
RP have now corrected the times and promised to remind their guys to time from passing the starter. TF and RP were 6s adrift on the 4.00 race so you should have seen that in the difference column of the TFRP sheet - if not then I'd suggest you try the version I updated (see a few posts back), which also handles non UK racing better.

Some of Carlisle's times are 1s out, some 2s out, one is only a fraction different while the 4.00 is 6s different so going allowance won't handles that variation I'd suggest, 6s is equivalent to a 90 yd error in race distance after all.


1580841131368.png

- look at Skewiff, we have similar allowances (-0.65 to -0.68) while I rate him 17 lb higher as a result of his being 6s faster than the RP reported.
Dave
 
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Hi Mike @TheBluesBrother
RP have now corrected the times and promised to remind their guys to time from passing the starter. TF and RP were 6s adrift on the 4.00 race so you should have seen that in the difference column of the TFRP sheet - if not then I'd suggest you try the version I updated (see a few posts back), which also handles non UK racing better.

Some of Carlisle's times are 1s out, some 2s out, one is only a fraction different while the 4.00 is 6s different so going allowance won't handles that variation I'd suggest, 6s is equivalent to a 90 yd error in race distance after all.


View attachment 81589

- look at Skewiff, we have similar allowances (-0.65 to -0.68) while I rate him 17 lb higher as a result of his being 6s faster than the RP reported.
Dave
Racing post and Timeform both seem to be timing races themselves, does anyone know , does the RP bother to time Irish races at all ?
They just seem to have the same times as everywhere else probably from the press association.
21st century and they can’t time races from the starting pole to the winning post, everyone just having to do it themselves guessing from tv when they have gone past the start.
Starters calling them forward and letting the tape go up when they are 50yds away from the start, the whole thing is an amateurish shambles.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
Racing post and Timeform both seem to be timing races themselves, does anyone know , does the RP bother to time Irish races at all ?
They just seem to have the same times as everywhere else probably from the press association.
21st century and they can’t time races from the starting pole to the winning post, everyone just having to do it themselves guessing from tv when they have gone past the start.
Starters calling them forwards time and letting the tape go up when they are 50yds away from the start, the whole thing is an amateurish shambles.
Exactly. I don’t even try and time /rate NH races anymore. The going allowances can be so drastic that a Novice Hurdler can seem to have run like a Champion. All admiration to you guys that do. 5 f to 8f. That’s about it for me.lol
Bertie123
 

davejb

Mare
@Outlander
One thing I'm becoming very good at while waiting for a race to start - spotting a shadow, clump of grass or mud, a railside bit of anything - that I figure is in line with the starter/start marker. That way when you get a video that (as is often the case) seems to have been shot specifically to avoid showing the starter being passed you can say 'ah, Bees Knees has passed that lump of mud that is shaped like Sicily, I'll start the clock'!

One of the bad ones from yesterday had a convenient ray of sunlight a couple of yards away that did the trick, another had a traffic cone in the right place....

It is amateur hour, all you actually need is somebody at the finish to stop the timer and somebody at the start to start it, they could be linked any number of ways to ensure it worked properly. The main issue appears to be that the start is a bit of a judgement call - which I would suggest can be a second or so either way without being desperately bad ... although with practise I'd think 0.25s would be about the norm ... but the guy(s) actually deciding when they've started is sometimes totally uninterested in making sure he does it when the leading horse passes the actual race start point. RP have said before, and again today in an email reply, that they will remind their staff that this is the point to measure race time from. I'd be happier about this if exactly the same issue and exactly the same remedy hadn't been discussed via email with RP less than a year ago.

I will continue to badger them if I have to! On the plus side, when I've pointed out crap timing to them they have been pretty quick to deal with it and update the website - I feel some sympathy for the poor devils who deal with my emails who aren't at fault but have to cover the tracks of their timekeepers.
Dave
 
@Outlander
One thing I'm becoming very good at while waiting for a race to start - spotting a shadow, clump of grass or mud, a railside bit of anything - that I figure is in line with the starter/start marker. That way when you get a video that (as is often the case) seems to have been shot specifically to avoid showing the starter being passed you can say 'ah, Bees Knees has passed that lump of mud that is shaped like Sicily, I'll start the clock'!

One of the bad ones from yesterday had a convenient ray of sunlight a couple of yards away that did the trick, another had a traffic cone in the right place....

It is amateur hour, all you actually need is somebody at the finish to stop the timer and somebody at the start to start it, they could be linked any number of ways to ensure it worked properly. The main issue appears to be that the start is a bit of a judgement call - which I would suggest can be a second or so either way without being desperately bad ... although with practise I'd think 0.25s would be about the norm ... but the guy(s) actually deciding when they've started is sometimes totally uninterested in making sure he does it when the leading horse passes the actual race start point. RP have said before, and again today in an email reply, that they will remind their staff that this is the point to measure race time from. I'd be happier about this if exactly the same issue and exactly the same remedy hadn't been discussed via email with RP less than a year ago.

I will continue to badger them if I have to! On the plus side, when I've pointed out crap timing to them they have been pretty quick to deal with it and update the website - I feel some sympathy for the poor devils who deal with my emails who aren't at fault but have to cover the tracks of their timekeepers.
Dave
I’m assuming the tape is level with the start, when the starter presses the lever the timing mechanism begins, the answer is get rid of the tape as as far as I can see it serves zero purpose with the rolling start and even with the standing start is nothing but a hindrance. Then the starter can start the timing mechanism when they pass the start without worrying about the stupid tape, problem solved no extra manpower needed.None of this is rocket science.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I’m assuming the tape is level with the start, when the starter presses the lever the timing mechanism begins, the answer is get rid of the tape as as far as I can see it serves zero purpose with the rolling start and even with the standing start is nothing but a hindrance. Then the starter can start the timing mechanism when they pass the start without worrying about the stupid tape, problem solved no extra manpower needed.None of this is rocket science.
Unless they need another person to remind the Starter to start the Timing mechanism!😋
 
Do you beat Fritz @TheBluesBrother ?
No, but the setup I am using does.

Massimilano Goi an Italian contact wrote a .bin opening book which I use, the new .bin version 6.2.2 costs $200, I load that into his chess engine Cfish, which is then loaded into the chess program Arena 3.5.1 to run side by side against Fritz.

If you click the analyze button in Arena while the chess engine is running through million of variations a blue arrow appears showing you the combinations you can use, when the program has reached 99% the final move it stops at is what I use.

Any opening I want to analyze, for instance, there was a world championship game Carlsen v Arnand, Carlsen was playing white and won 1-0, I took the first 6 moves of each player and then played black running the opening moves through the chess engine, black won.

Running this analysis on openings which I stumbled onto by chance, has certainly opened my eyes on how to play openings correctly.

Mike.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Thanks for the explanation Mike, it wasnt clear to me what you were doing. Are the videos in real time or do you edit out some of the thinking time?
 
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