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Compiling Speed figures.

i came across this new website https://jumpspacemaps.co.uk/pace-maps/ which looks interesting ?

1578482963799.png

"The yellower the background the slower the relative pace was between the obstacles used (in long-distance races times between every second or third obstacle might be used) while a red background illustrates where the pace was much quicker. "
not being an expert on how to use this info for the future , i wonder if anyone has an opinion ? but what i can see is that both Masters Legacy and Buzz both quickened well off a slow pace which looked good to the eye , would they be so impressive off an early faster pace ?
 
According to the Sky Racing pundits Newcastle was riding deep / slow & into a headwind today.

Good Effort broke 11 seconds in two of the middle furlongs today.

I will be very interested to see what TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother figures throw up from todays card.

Regards,
 
GLEN SHIEL was ideally placed as the tempo began to lift and the 6yo found plenty when asked to win the race. He had a bit to prove over this sharper test, but clearly isn't slow and the new surface really suited.

GOOD EFFORT took the race by the scruff of the neck and gamely followed up his demolition job on Deauville's Polytrack last month. The drop back in trip on this stiff course was fine and a race-winning move at the two-furlong marker caught out his rivals. This books his ticket for the final on Easter Friday and one can see him enjoying a trip to Lingfield.


Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

DRAGON D'ESTRUVAL, who didn't get home over 3f further in the voided London Gold Cup, proved well at home over this shorter trip against lesser company, gradually wearing down the long-time leader and winning with a bit in hand. He can be competitive returned to a higher level, but will need more to follow up.

Yesterday's Top NH speed figures:
NH.png

080120.png

Mike.
 
1578562655319.pngAVG OR 129
1578562812442.pngAVG OR 135
1578562940588.pngAVG OR 138
these are Dragon's last 3 pace maps. the C4 , C3 etc are just the order of the races not the Class.
He was held up at Ascot and Perth but was up nearer the pace at Ludlow. Be interesting to know the Speed Figures for Ascot and Perth but it looks like a great bit of placing from Henderson. couple of runs in slightly stronger races to hone its fitness , then a drop in strength of race and up in distance. Bob's your Uncle !! or i could be talking a complete load of bollocks !!
Question for TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother if i may ,if we just think about the Classiest horses , what type of Pace Map do you think would produce the quickest Speed Figure ? or does it not matter ? Thankyou.
 
i came across this new website https://jumpspacemaps.co.uk/pace-maps/ which looks interesting ?

View attachment 80530

"The yellower the background the slower the relative pace was between the obstacles used (in long-distance races times between every second or third obstacle might be used) while a red background illustrates where the pace was much quicker. "
not being an expert on how to use this info for the future , i wonder if anyone has an opinion ? but what i can see is that both Masters Legacy and Buzz both quickened well off a slow pace which looked good to the eye , would they be so impressive off an early faster pace ?
Hello TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother , i found this website which looks interesting . he explains how he arrives at his figures there and while they are not Speed Figures as such , i think maybe the Pace of a race can often determine the result ?
Obviously , the pace map is telling us where the tempo of race was to be found ie slow/ slow /quick/quick or any other combinations , so my question to you was ,if we just think about the Classiest horses , what type of Pace Map / Pace Tempo do you think would produce the quickest Speed Figure ? or does it not matter ? Thankyou for replying and posting up those Attachments .
 
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S simon boardman

Regarding the pace figures, I took a look at what the guy is attempting to achieve, unfortunately, I can see so many flaws in his calculations.

When I started compiling speed figures the first problem I had was due to the different racecourse configurations I had to come up with a method of
bringing them into line, so I came up with my lbs per length figures calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

The other major problem regarding the pace figures is the rail movements, using Fakenham as an example the rail movements can add up to 258 yds to a race distance would this not have an adverse effect on the pace figures.

Then you have the problem with the going allowances, take Cork, for example, one day they had surface water on the track I had the going allowance at -3.20s/f (quagmire) would this not affect the pace figures and just recently I have had several occasions where there were two going allowances, one for the hurdles course and another for the chase course.

Then you the Irish racecourse where you take the official race distances with a big pinch of salt, what did make me smile was the thought of somebody
attempting pace figures for Tramore, you could earn yourself a PhD solving the problem of the standard times for the course.

I could go on...

Mike.
 
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LORD ROYAL is an imposing horse, jumps well, and travelled powerfully through ground which had most of his opponents out on their feet by the finish. He went to the front on the descent to the straight and had the race won provided he jumped the last two, taking off half a stride early at the final flight was testament to how much he had in the tank. It was a very impressive display of jumping and galloping, and if he can produce this on good ground he could easily be a Cheltenham prospect. He should make a fine chaser in time too.

QUOTES: LORD ROYAL is a beautiful horse and we have always liked him. He's in two novice hurdles at Leopardstown but I think it will probably come too soon. He has a lovely relaxed way of going and the way he moves he will hopefully act on better ground. He could end up being an Albert Bartlett horse or something like that - David Casey, assistant trainer.


Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

BRIGHT MELODY, a half-brother to French winners Pop Song (1m1f inc 2yo AW/turf) and Light Spirit (11.5f), is the fourth foal of a Fillies' Mile winner. He overcame a slow start and picked up well in the straight to see off the long-time leader, winning quite comfortably in the end. There's surely more to come from him.

HADDAF got out in front and dominated throughout. His task was made easier by his main market rivals both bombing out, but he galloped on strongly and proved suited by the mile, so might have more to offer over this trip.


Yesterday's top AW speed Figures:
AW.png

090120.png

Mike.
 
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TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother
Hi Mike,
Catterick 2.40 yesterday, Little Bruce - by my timing Timeform have this correct at 8m 22.2s, Racing Post have 7m 55.9s (must have forgotten to start his stopwatch).
Dave
 
Hi Mike
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother
Yes, I emailed the RP and they got back to me only an hour later to say their 'information services team concur...'
I actually find it very difficult to accept or understand this somewhat farcical approach to the data - I know people make mistakes, even me! - but as i said in an email to the BHA on rail moves the other day, they in their role as the authority for racing ought to be taking a more serious approach to the data they publish, stupid things like having parts 1 and 2 of the same 2m bumper (Ludlow 2 days back), running consecutively, ought not to have different rail move information - anybody knowing anything about racing should spot they've omitted race 7's info.

I suggested they ought to actually check what they're publishing, as at least half the errors are so bloody obvious that they should never stand a chance of getting onto the site without being corrected.

The BHA have not, of course, got back to me as yet, of course they also still have Little Bruce running about 26s faster than he actually did in that Catterick race.

Dave
 
"Regarding the pace figures, I took a look at what the guy is attempting to achieve, unfortunately, I can see so many flaws in his calculations" so said TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother

This website is mine, and I have attempted to make it as intuitive as possible and as simple as possible, with explanations on the website, but it seems not everyone has grasped what it is attempting to portray.

The figures are NOT timefigures NOR pace figures but pace maps, and they show, as simply as possible, where the pace was slow or fast within a race.

Because of the way they are calculated they are not dependant on the race distance being correct to the exact yard as all hurdle and chase timings are taken for the same points and they also include added yards into the calculations.

I'll explain more tomorrow if anyone is interested but they are best used in accompanimient with a good set of timefigures. Now whether you use Timeform's figures or thsoe provided by TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother is completely up to you.......... but if you use RP/Topspeed data (or Topspeed standards to derive your own timefigures ) which quite a few on here do it seems, well good luck.
 
P Paceman , i put the question to TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother so apologises for that !! No , seriously i would be interested in any explanations you may have and maybe you could answer my question , if we just think about the Classiest horses , what type of Pace Map / Pace Tempo do you think would produce the quickest Speed Figure ? or does it not matter ?
on another point , what are your plans for your website ? and would it be possible to download your Pacemaps in a different format ie Excel so you can input some Speed Figures next to each Pace map , such as those excellent figs produced by TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother . many thanks .
 
I'd be interested in the detail, for one. I'd agree with any suggestion that Topspeed figures are somewhat fictional in character, although Timeform do make as many mistakes as RP in race timing - at least the times posted on the results page, perhaps they use a different set of data for their ratings.

Standard times are one of the debates akin to the length of a piece of string - every race is different, every horse is different, and few of them are ultra consistent, so standards are a bit of an act of faith where you pray they are accurate enough a guide to allow a profit to be extracted!

Dave
 
I'd be interested in the detail, for one. I'd agree with any suggestion that Topspeed figures are somewhat fictional in character, although Timeform do make as many mistakes as RP in race timing - at least the times posted on the results page, perhaps they use a different set of data for their ratings.

Standard times are one of the debates akin to the length of a piece of string - every race is different, every horse is different, and few of them are ultra consistent, so standards are a bit of an act of faith where you pray they are accurate enough a guide to allow a profit to be extracted!

Dave
Hi Dave,
If you can give me all the instances in the last 3 months where Timeform have made a timing mistake in your opinion that is still in the public domain I will ensure it is corrected on Monday so long as you provide me with an alternative 'correct' time for each instance.
 
I'd be interested in the detail, for one. I'd agree with any suggestion that Topspeed figures are somewhat fictional in character, although Timeform do make as many mistakes as RP in race timing - at least the times posted on the results page, perhaps they use a different set of data for their ratings.

Standard times are one of the debates akin to the length of a piece of string - every race is different, every horse is different, and few of them are ultra consistent, so standards are a bit of an act of faith where you pray they are accurate enough a guide to allow a profit to be extracted!

Dave
I have never seen an accurate set of standard times published, I’ve looked Racing post, raceform , data form, racing and football outlook, I have a copy of sportsman’s standards and mordin standards on my pc , I’ve looked at racingsense none of them reliable enough to have confidence and actually put money down on the back of them, The elusive Timeform standards i think must be a closely guarded secret because I’ve never come across a copy, maybe they are the best, I couldn’t comment. For nine months now I’ve been trying to produce better standards than all of them but even after all that time only relatively recently realised my sheet has a slight leniancy bias towards the longer distances especially those with limited races in the database. I won’t give up because I treat it as a hobby to do in between races when I’m playing in running, but i can see from my better attempts that speed figures will be profitable if high level of accuracy can be achieved , I’m absolutely convinced of this. I think TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother said on here that anyone who cracks Tramore NH standards would be worthy of a PhD and I think in general using the data to achieve an accurate set of standards has some many variables that perfection will never be possible and it is a monumental task that I have never seen evidence of being cracked to the required accuracy. I don’t think you get the Timeform standards even if you pay loads to subscribe , if I could buy a copy I would just so I could run them through my sheets and see how accurate they are. The best speed figures I saw were top speed in the racing post many years ago on the jumps when they were briefly compiled by a guy called Tony Hargaves, his standards must have been pretty good at the time.
 
P Paceman , i put the question to TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother so apologises for that !! No , seriously i would be interested in any explanations you may have and maybe you could answer my question , if we just think about the Classiest horses , what type of Pace Map / Pace Tempo do you think would produce the quickest Speed Figure ? or does it not matter ?
on another point , what are your plans for your website ? and would it be possible to download your Pacemaps in a different format ie Excel so you can input some Speed Figures next to each Pace map , such as those excellent figs produced by TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother . many thanks .
I have never seen an accurate set of standard times published, I’ve looked Racing post, raceform , data form, racing and football outlook, I have a copy of sportsman’s standards and mordin standards on my pc , I’ve looked at racingsense none of them reliable enough to have confidence and actually put money down on the back of them, The elusive Timeform standards i think must be a closely guarded secret because I’ve never come across a copy, maybe they are the best, I couldn’t comment. For nine months now I’ve been trying to produce better standards than all of them but even after all that time only relatively recently realised my sheet has a slight leniancy bias towards the longer distances especially those with limited races in the database. I won’t give up because I treat it as a hobby to do in between races when I’m playing in running, but i can see from my better attempts that speed figures will be profitable if high level of accuracy can be achieved , I’m absolutely convinced of this. I think TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother said on here that anyone who cracks Tramore NH standards would be worthy of a PhD and I think in general using the data to achieve an accurate set of standards has some many variables that perfection will never be possible and it is a monumental task that I have never seen evidence of being cracked to the required accuracy. I don’t think you get the Timeform standards even if you pay loads to subscribe , if I could buy a copy I would just so I could run them through my sheets and see how accurate they are. The best speed figures I saw were top speed in the racing post many years ago on the jumps when they were briefly compiled by a guy called Tony Hargaves, his standards must have been pretty good at the time.
[/QUOT
 
P Paceman , i put the question to TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother so apologises for that !! No , seriously i would be interested in any explanations you may have and maybe you could answer my question , if we just think about the Classiest horses , what type of Pace Map / Pace Tempo do you think would produce the quickest Speed Figure ? or does it not matter ?
on another point , what are your plans for your website ? and would it be possible to download your Pacemaps in a different format ie Excel so you can input some Speed Figures next to each Pace map , such as those excellent figs produced by TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother . many thanks .

I have never seen an accurate set of standard times published, I’ve looked Racing post, raceform , data form, racing and football outlook, I have a copy of sportsman’s standards and mordin standards on my pc , I’ve looked at racingsense none of them reliable enough to have confidence and actually put money down on the back of them, The elusive Timeform standards i think must be a closely guarded secret because I’ve never come across a copy, maybe they are the best, I couldn’t comment. For nine months now I’ve been trying to produce better standards than all of them but even after all that time only relatively recently realised my sheet has a slight leniancy bias towards the longer distances especially those with limited races in the database. I won’t give up because I treat it as a hobby to do in between races when I’m playing in running, but i can see from my better attempts that speed figures will be profitable if high level of accuracy can be achieved , I’m absolutely convinced of this. I think TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother said on here that anyone who cracks Tramore NH standards would be worthy of a PhD and I think in general using the data to achieve an accurate set of standards has some many variables that perfection will never be possible and it is a monumental task that I have never seen evidence of being cracked to the required accuracy. I don’t think you get the Timeform standards even if you pay loads to subscribe , if I could buy a copy I would just so I could run them through my sheets and see how accurate they are. The best speed figures I saw were top speed in the racing post many years ago on the jumps when they were briefly compiled by a guy called Tony Hargaves, his standards must have been pretty good at the time.
Outlander, your standard times will reflect a leniency bias towards longer distances because they aren't compiled properly. You can't compile a list of standard times from each 20th percentile for example by distance ( or adjust the percentile according to the number of times you are using) because that is completely unrealistic.
 
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