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Compiling Speed figures.

That’s not how my sheets calculate standards, I know that taking a median or percentile for each distance is unrealistic, my sheets are much more sophisticated but they were still struggling with the odd distance where there was not many races and being to lenient , I’ve corrected it since the new year and the results I’m getting(only flat racing have been very promising ) but I still find distances with few races in the data not quite as reliable.
Hi Outlander, I've read through this thread and agree with a lot of what you've said regarding Standard Times. I dabbled in time analysis last season and have through the winter been preparing sheets to rate each race on the flat next season which I'm really looking forward to. I will also be upgrading final times using sectional finishing speeds as I believe the final time to only tell half the story of a race.

Anyway without going off on a tangent, do you have any opinions on the RP Standard Times at Nottingham? The difference between the inner and the outer track seems to be quite a lot. Due to the amount of races that seem to happen on soft ground, especially on the inner track, and a lack of top class races to analyse, I'm struggling to really put a finger on what they should be.

Your or anyone else's opinions on the matter would be welcome!
 
Hi Outlander, I've read through this thread and agree with a lot of what you've said regarding Standard Times. I dabbled in time analysis last season and have through the winter been preparing sheets to rate each race on the flat next season which I'm really looking forward to. I will also be upgrading final times using sectional finishing speeds as I believe the final time to only tell half the story of a race.

Anyway without going off on a tangent, do you have any opinions on the RP Standard Times at Nottingham? The difference between the inner and the outer track seems to be quite a lot. Due to the amount of races that seem to happen on soft ground, especially on the inner track, and a lack of top class races to analyse, I'm struggling to really put a finger on what they should be.

Your or anyone else's opinions on the matter would be welcome!
Will post up my latest standards for Nottingham tomorrow when I’m at my pc, I recently as last week updated them.
 

davejb

Mare
@Stevet1859 I noticed you asked a second question, so I hope nobody minds if I butt in...

The OR's that are in yellow are used when there is no official rating for a runner (common in novice events and so forth) where a runner has not run often enough to be officially handicapped. Rather than leave these blank (the OR is fundamental to calculating the going allowance for a meeting, and if this is inaccurate then the speed ratings will be garbage) Mike takes the Racing Post Rating (RPR) for the horse and uses his RPR conversion spreadsheet to determine a valid 'OR equivalent' value that can be used to make the calculations.

For example yesterday races 1,2,5 and 7 at Punchestown had winners that did not have an official OR rating - had the calculations been made without these then the going allowance and speed ratings of a 7 race meeting would have been produced from only three sets of data, which is not very confidence inspiring. the RPRs of the 4 winners (Chosen Hour, Carefully Selected, Andy Dufresne and Le Musigny) were 128, 153, 150, and 123 5- using the RPR conversion spreadsheet (which Mike uploaded recently, look back through the last few pages if you missed it) and you'll find these equate to ORs of 116, 141, 137, and 113 when you look down the appropriate columns (chase for first pair, hurdles the last 2). Mike did not use the figure for Andy Dufresne, I'm guessing the RPR wasn't initially put up with the others, but even without this result he still did the calculations based on 6 of 7 races, which is rather better than tring it with 3/7.

Including all 7 I made the allowance -1.16 seconds per furlong.

Mike's table is based on his assessment of how the OR scale matches up against the RPR scale, and you'll see that as the ratings go higher so the difference between RPR and OR increases.
Dave
All work, of course, courtesy of Mike @TheBluesBrother
 

Stevet1859

Yearling
@Stevet1859 I noticed you asked a second question, so I hope nobody minds if I butt in...

The OR's that are in yellow are used when there is no official rating for a runner (common in novice events and so forth) where a runner has not run often enough to be officially handicapped. Rather than leave these blank (the OR is fundamental to calculating the going allowance for a meeting, and if this is inaccurate then the speed ratings will be garbage) Mike takes the Racing Post Rating (RPR) for the horse and uses his RPR conversion spreadsheet to determine a valid 'OR equivalent' value that can be used to make the calculations.

For example yesterday races 1,2,5 and 7 at Punchestown had winners that did not have an official OR rating - had the calculations been made without these then the going allowance and speed ratings of a 7 race meeting would have been produced from only three sets of data, which is not very confidence inspiring. the RPRs of the 4 winners (Chosen Hour, Carefully Selected, Andy Dufresne and Le Musigny) were 128, 153, 150, and 123 5- using the RPR conversion spreadsheet (which Mike uploaded recently, look back through the last few pages if you missed it) and you'll find these equate to ORs of 116, 141, 137, and 113 when you look down the appropriate columns (chase for first pair, hurdles the last 2). Mike did not use the figure for Andy Dufresne, I'm guessing the RPR wasn't initially put up with the others, but even without this result he still did the calculations based on 6 of 7 races, which is rather better than tring it with 3/7.

Including all 7 I made the allowance -1.16 seconds per furlong.

Mike's table is based on his assessment of how the OR scale matches up against the RPR scale, and you'll see that as the ratings go higher so the difference between RPR and OR increases.
Dave
All work, of course, courtesy of Mike @TheBluesBrother
Thank you Dave very comprehensive answer and I understand now. Much appreciated.
 
Hi Outlander, I've read through this thread and agree with a lot of what you've said regarding Standard Times. I dabbled in time analysis last season and have through the winter been preparing sheets to rate each race on the flat next season which I'm really looking forward to. I will also be upgrading final times using sectional finishing speeds as I believe the final time to only tell half the story of a race.

Anyway without going off on a tangent, do you have any opinions on the RP Standard Times at Nottingham? The difference between the inner and the outer track seems to be quite a lot. Due to the amount of races that seem to happen on soft ground, especially on the inner track, and a lack of top class races to analyse, I'm struggling to really put a finger on what they should be.

Your or anyone else's opinions on the matter would be welcome!
@Jamie_E
FurlongsYardsDistance_descriptionOutlander
5.04​
1108​
Nottingham-Flat-1108-
57.65​
5.04​
1108​
Nottingham-Flat-1108-inner
57.64​
6.08​
1338​
Nottingham-Flat-1338-
70.32​
8.34​
1835​
Nottingham-Flat-1835-
100.95​
8.34​
1835​
Nottingham-Flat-1835-inner
101.82​
10.23​
2250​
Nottingham-Flat-2250-
125.32​
10.23​
2250​
Nottingham-Flat-2250-inner
127.14​
14.00​
3080​
Nottingham-Flat-3080-
175.78​
14.00​
3080​
Nottingham-Flat-3080-inner
177.66​
16.00​
3520​
Nottingham-Flat-3520-
202.78​
 

davejb

Mare
Mike,
@TheBluesBrother The 1.35 at Lingfield yesterday (Moromac) time in Timeform is about right at 5m 41.6s, RP have it 4.1s slower which looks very much like timed from flag drop, from passing the orange marker post to the line I make it 5:41 (give or take 1s). This makes the race 42.6s slow, less the 28 yds allwance (so about) 40.8s slow overall.

Dave
 
@davejb

With the conditions as they were yesterday at Lingfield, I am not going to bother making any changes.

DE just sent me this...

Mike
The Eider start has been moved and will now be run over 4m 1f 56yds and an extra fence making 26 in all.

Mike.
 
@Jamie_E
FurlongsYardsDistance_descriptionOutlander
5.04​
1108​
Nottingham-Flat-1108-
57.65​
5.04​
1108​
Nottingham-Flat-1108-inner
57.64​
6.08​
1338​
Nottingham-Flat-1338-
70.32​
8.34​
1835​
Nottingham-Flat-1835-
100.95​
8.34​
1835​
Nottingham-Flat-1835-inner
101.82​
10.23​
2250​
Nottingham-Flat-2250-
125.32​
10.23​
2250​
Nottingham-Flat-2250-inner
127.14​
14.00​
3080​
Nottingham-Flat-3080-
175.78​
14.00​
3080​
Nottingham-Flat-3080-inner
177.66​
16.00​
3520​
Nottingham-Flat-3520-
202.78​
Perfect, thanks very much. The discrepancy between the inner and outer track not as much as the RP have, as I suspected. From the limited data I had I just didn't think it would be right and you've backed that up.
 
Perfect, thanks very much. The discrepancy between the inner and outer track not as much as the RP have, as I suspected. From the limited data I had I just didn't think it would be right and you've backed that up.
I suppose technically the discrepancy between the inner and outer track shouldn’t cause any issues because they never race on both on the same day, it’s how the distances relate to each other within the particular track that matters I would say.
 

Paceman

Yearling
Think Lingfield has potential to be a good jumps track as there is a nice long uphill jumping stretch with well spaced out fences but it doesn't work in winter, ground nearly always very heavy or worse than very heavy.
 
Conditions for racing yesterday were so bad Fairyhouse set a new record for the worst going allowance on their hurdle course I have ever seen at -3.35s/f, not to be left out, conditions at Chelmsford must have been bad for them to abandon their last two races, note the two going allowances I ended up with.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

140120.png
Flat: AW2018_2019.xlsx

NH: NH2018_2019.xlsx

Mike.
 
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Paceman

Yearling
Hi Mike
@TheBluesBrother
Doncaster 1.05 yesterday (Jobsonfire) time is wrong on RP, Timeform 6m 23.27s is closer.
@Paceman
The Fairyhouse 3.25 (Braeside) time on RP (6m 57.1s) looks to redress the balance a bit, as it looks better than TF's 7m 0.4s, although it's a little more difficult to judge from video exactly when they passed the starter.

Dave
Ok cheers very much will investigate when I get to work tomorrow
 
The official going description of heavy returned for Newbury, after adjusting for the rail movements I had the going allowance no worse than good to soft we did surprise me after all the rain that has fallen.

MOONLIGHTER, who had unseated on two of his three previous starts over fences, jumped soundly this time and turned in a career-best effort, despite persistently hanging to his left in the last quarter mile. He'll have no problems with the return to a bit further and he appeals strongly as the type to win more races.

QUOTES: That was a good performance from MOONLIGHTER. Someone told me Midnight Legend's progeny like heavy ground, but the dam Countes Camilla loved it. I'll have to go back and assess targets. It's hard to say about his trip as his half-brother Le Cameleon won at two miles and Horatio Hornblower - another in the family - is a three-miler. It's a good, rock-solid family and you wouldn't have thought this would be the best day of this horse's life - Nick Williams, trainer


Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
NH.png

ZYLAN travelled kindly, tracking the pace, and was kept up to his work all the up the straight, pushed out hands and heels to narrowly hold on. He rarely runs a bad race around here and can't be stuck up much for this.

GHAITH was put up 11lb for his commanding win here on Boxing Day, but he showed he's still well handicapped with another convincing success, and this despite the race being messy and turning into a dash from the home turn. He looks capable of defying another rise.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
AW.png

150120.png

Mike.
 
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