Compiling Speed figures.

[Chesham]

I agree with the 2 year old figures more or less but DANDALIA is miles clear. But due to the change in the going its anyones guess who will run it's race and who won't EYE OF HEAVEN is obviously smart but its win came in Good to Firm? I guess Chesham would have the answer with his breeding knowledge.

Well done with Dandalia

 

[Larry]

I think you speed guys got that spot on well done Cashelman tractorboy B Bertie123 & O Outlander

 

[Bertie123]

Here's my take on the Albany and Norfolk today, the Albany looks to be a two horse race on my figures and the Norfolk a three horse race but not original as top three are the first three in the betting, so will just be having a little ew on Dandalla at 10s was 16s earlier so missed the boat a little

Horse	Total
Dandalla (IRE)	93
Mother Earth (IRE)	87
Bonne Vitesse (IRE)	73
Ventura Vision (FR)	73
Undertake	69
Mahale	68
Mariance	63
Valpolicella	63
Setarhe (IRE)	62
Cirrus	61
Follow Suit (IRE)	58
Golden Melody (IRE)	57
Willabell (USA)	47
Horse	Total
Eye Of Heaven	96
The Lir Jet (IRE)	96
Lipizzaner (USA)	94
Andronicus Beau (IRE)	85
Nelson Gay (IRE)	84
Jojo Rabbit	83
Cooperation (IRE)	82
Imperial Force (IRE)	75
Macho Pride (IRE)	65

Well done on Dandalia. I also had it well clear and got 10’s. I also have EYE and THE LIR on top joint. Also backed MUMS TIPPLE in the Commonwealth. Top on my figures but tricky with the ground .

 

[Bertie123]

I think you speed guys got that spot on well done Cashelman tractorboy B Bertie123 & O Outlander

Thanks Larry. Sometimes it seems the hours of dedication Pay off

 

[Bertie123]

Well done with Dandalia

Chesham Thank you, Hope you were on

 

[Outlander]

2.25 ratings from me, cant see much value

*HORSE	TodaySPEED	TodayCLASS	TodayRATING	OVERALL	speed rank	CLASS rank	RATING rank	OVERALL rank
Eye Of Heaven	114.60​	110.29​	115.60​	113.50​	1​	4​	1​	1​
Lipizzaner (USA)	112.15​	110.51​	113.79​	112.15​	2​	3​	2​	2​
Lipizzaner (USA)	107.59​	111.67​	113.04​	110.76​	5​	1​	4​	3​
Imperial Force (IRE)	108.06​	109.43​	113.14​	110.21​	4​	6​	3​	4​
The Lir Jet (IRE)	109.98​	107.91​	112.16​	110.02​	3​	9​	6​	5​
Cooperation (IRE)	105.39​	111.17​	112.45​	109.67​	9​	2​	5​	6​
Andronicus Beau (IRE)	106.37​	107.52​	111.64​	108.51​	6​	10​	7​	7​
Macho Pride (IRE)	102.50​	110.10​	111.41​	108.01​	11​	5​	8​	8​
Jojo Rabbit	105.86​	108.42​	109.58​	107.95​	8​	8​	11​	9​
Jojo Rabbit	105.08​	107.52​	109.65​	107.41​	10​	11​	9​	10​
Nelson Gay (IRE)	106.15​	104.08​	109.61​	106.62​	7​	12​	10​	11​
Cooperation (IRE)	100.18​	109.18​	109.13​	106.16​	12​	7​	12​	12​

 

[Outlander]

Here's my take on the Albany and Norfolk today, the Albany looks to be a two horse race on my figures and the Norfolk a three horse race but not original as top three are the first three in the betting, so will just be having a little ew on Dandalla at 10s was 16s earlier so missed the boat a little

Horse	Total
Dandalla (IRE)	93
Mother Earth (IRE)	87
Bonne Vitesse (IRE)	73
Ventura Vision (FR)	73
Undertake	69
Mahale	68
Mariance	63
Valpolicella	63
Setarhe (IRE)	62
Cirrus	61
Follow Suit (IRE)	58
Golden Melody (IRE)	57
Willabell (USA)	47
Horse	Total
Eye Of Heaven	96
The Lir Jet (IRE)	96
Lipizzaner (USA)	94
Andronicus Beau (IRE)	85
Nelson Gay (IRE)	84
Jojo Rabbit	83
Cooperation (IRE)	82
Imperial Force (IRE)	75
Macho Pride (IRE)	65

excellent ratings and pick there well done

 

[Larry]

Well done all with the Lir Jet, speed figures certainly work out with early season 2yo's

 

[Cashelman]

Here's my take on the Albany and Norfolk today, the Albany looks to be a two horse race on my figures and the Norfolk a three horse race but not original as top three are the first three in the betting, so will just be having a little ew on Dandalla at 10s was 16s earlier so missed the boat a little

Horse	Total
Dandalla (IRE)	93
Mother Earth (IRE)	87
Bonne Vitesse (IRE)	73
Ventura Vision (FR)	73
Undertake	69
Mahale	68
Mariance	63
Valpolicella	63
Setarhe (IRE)	62
Cirrus	61
Follow Suit (IRE)	58
Golden Melody (IRE)	57
Willabell (USA)	47
Horse	Total
Eye Of Heaven	96
The Lir Jet (IRE)	96
Lipizzaner (USA)	94
Andronicus Beau (IRE)	85
Nelson Gay (IRE)	84
Jojo Rabbit	83
Cooperation (IRE)	82
Imperial Force (IRE)	75
Macho Pride (IRE)	65

Not a bad day clear top rated winner and joint top rated winner

 

[Yhwh]

Years ago when the BHA started posting rail movements on their website the horror of the distance changes stuck home.

Results - The British Horseracing Authority

www.britishhorseracing.com

For example, due to rail movements, Fakenham would have distance changes of up to +258yds and more recently Wetherby topped this with a distance change of +300yds.

For the NH I divide the distance change (rail movements) by a constant of 15, so +258yds (17.2s) and subtract this from the comparison per furlong time i.e (slow by 48.0s) and if the distance is short -108yds (7.2s) you add it to the comparison per furlong time.

On the flat, I now use a constant of 13.

To explain the constants, over the jumps a horse travels an average of 15.0s per furlong and on the flat 13.0s.

I am the originator of this method.

Mike.

Thank you Mike

That information is superb thanks for sharing.

 

[Cashelman]

Well here goes figures for the Queen Mary & Coventry, looks like the fillies are slightly better than the colts at this time

Horse	Total
More Beautiful (USA)	97
Happy Romance (IRE)	95
Pelekai	93
Mamba Wamba (IRE)	91
Sands Of Time	84
Sacred	78
Dickiedooda (IRE)	76
Grammata (IRE)	72
Sardinia Sunset (IRE)	72
Caroline Dale	67
Wings Of A Dove (IRE)	65
Nurse Florence (IRE)	60
Risque (IRE)	53
Star Of Emaraaty (IRE)	51
Sparkling Perry	50
Scarlet Bear (IRE)	50
The Good Ting	37
Horse	Total
Talbot (IRE)	87
Army Of India (IRE)	83
Science (IRE)	83
Lauded	80
Creative Force (IRE)	78
Painless Potter (IRE)	78
Choritzo	77
Thunder Of Niagara (IRE)	76
Admiral Nelson	74
Igotatext (IRE)	72
Saeiqa	72
Dark Lion (IRE)	69
Existent	67
Nando Parrado	61

 

[Bertie123]

We almost agree again and well done today. I have TALBOT top too but second top is QAADER And I see it is not in your list? ADMIRAL NELSON is the fly in the ointment as it coasted in FTO so could be anything as quite a few of these can.
I have already backed both of my two at good odds so we will see. Had DANDALLA and THE LIR JET, I have had three other big priced winners and having a great Ascot. I wonder if it’s the lengthy lockdown as Trainers have had more time to prepare their horses as it seems none of the runners from the top yards seem to be needing a run. When they run to the figures it’s very satisfying and makes it all worth while.

 

[Cashelman]

Great spot B Bertie123 I need to take copy and paste lessons from a 5 year old!! here is my revised list for the Coventry

Horse	Total
Qaader (IRE)	87
Talbot (IRE)	87
Army Of India (IRE)	83
Science (IRE)	83
Lauded	80
Creative Force (IRE)	78
Painless Potter (IRE)	78
Choritzo	77
Thunder Of Niagara (IRE)	76
Admiral Nelson	74
Igotatext (IRE)	72
Saeiqa	72
Dark Lion (IRE)	69
Existent	67
Nando Parrado	61

 

[Bertie123]

Cashelman
Good job. Who would believe you if it wins and you say, “ It was joint top rated on my list....honest guv! “

 

[Cashelman]

 

[TheBluesBrother]

O Outlander davejb

You have got to take a look at yesterday's times + race distances returned from Tipperary yesterday, they are so bad I cannot compile any speed figures for the meeting, even using Outlander's revised standard times.

We agreed that the RP standard times for Tipperary are so far out you would need to book time on the Hubble telescope just to view them.

The official going was described as yielding, if that was true, the winning time of Johhny Murtagh 2yo Measure of Magic in the 1st would be a Group 1 time.

I am just waiting to see what bollocks "Top Speed" comes up with, he should manage to get at least 3 speed figures from the meeting, if only they had somebody at the Post that understands the shit that is going on, Tipperary yesterday was the worst example of race distances + times I have ever seen.





Mike.

 

[Outlander]

O Outlander davejb

You have got to take a look at yesterday's times + race distances returned from Tipperary yesterday, they are so bad I cannot compile any speed figures for the meeting, even using Outlander's revised standard times.

We agreed that the RP standard times for Tipperary are so far out you would need to book time on the Hubble telescope just to view them.

The official going was described as yielding, if that was true, the winning time of Johhny Murtagh 2yo Measure of Magic in the 1st would be a Group 1 time.

I am just waiting to see what bollocks "Top Speed" comes up with, he should manage to get at least 3 speed figures from the meeting, if only they had somebody at the Post that understands the shit that is going on, Tipperary yesterday was the worst example of race distances + times I have ever seen.

View attachment 85133

View attachment 85132

Mike.

TheBluesBrother
I did a complete overhaul of all my flat standards in lockdown
Tipperary is as we already discussed the worst example from the RP
my new standards are below note the distances 1640 yards yesterday was 1620 so a yard adjustment would be needed for that distance.
using new standards all races apart from those 7 1/2 furlong races make sense to me, either the 7 1/2 furlong races were very slow or the distance is longer than 1620
i had the going as slow 0.07 sec/furlong which is fine for all other races
the 7 1/2 f races no horse indicated the going was faster than slow 0.6 s/f

RP standard	Furlongs	Yards	Distance_description
57.20​	5.00​	1100​	Tipperary-Flat-1100-
93.84​	7.45​	1640​	Tipperary-Flat-1640-
114.93​	9.00​	1980​	Tipperary-Flat-1980-
162.72​	12.45​	2740​	Tipperary-Flat-2740-

 

[Outlander]

TheBluesBrother
irish racings messing about with distances is a joke
just watched yesterdays 1620 yd races and they started from the exact same place as the 1640 races on 06/10/19 the last meeting there
you could argue they moved a subsequent bend out 20 yds that day but if that’s the case why doesn’t it change the 1980 yd races
as far as I know there is one bend on home turn for 7 1/2 f races and obviously that bend is also negotiated over the 9f trip.
the only positive thing I can say is it will never be as bad as Sligo over jumps

 

[TheBluesBrother]

O Outlander

Using your revised standard times, I ran them through SPSS using linear curve estimation to produce the standard times ratios for each distance, so the standard time for 7f80yds using your figures is 92.61.

Your standard times look correct to me, the speed figures now make sense.





Mike.

 

[mickeddy]

TBB, noticed that yoursobeautiful who you mentioned earlier this week goes in the 5-15 Naas, priced at 10/1. The money horse in that race is Brunelle 22/1 down to 9/1, is there some reason for this or is it just a plain old gamble?