Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
I think that you would attract much more attention. If you were to set out the races that interest you, pre race like the one VDW did
JennyK
Gelding
With hindsight, I should perhaps have copied my post from the Bowers thread and included it in my post 1053 on this one. Easily rectified:
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
gerry
Mare
This is one race today i think i have one horse i really like from class and form points it is in the 4 05 hamilton.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
Choose this thread to say, hands up I am one of those leurkers you all seem to hate.
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
JennyK
Gelding
In the 2.00 Carlisle, Brosay is in my view the VDW class/form horse, and as a class-dropper has good supporting key horse form.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
Nellsman
Colt
Hi
JennyK,
it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.
JennyK,it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.