Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
I think that you would attract much more attention. If you were to set out the races that interest you, pre race like the one VDW did
JennyK
Gelding
With hindsight, I should perhaps have copied my post from the Bowers thread and included it in my post 1053 on this one. Easily rectified:
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
gerry
Mare
This is one race today i think i have one horse i really like from class and form points it is in the 4 05 hamilton.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
Choose this thread to say, hands up I am one of those leurkers you all seem to hate.
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
JennyK
Gelding
In the 2.00 Carlisle, Brosay is in my view the VDW class/form horse, and as a class-dropper has good supporting key horse form.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
Nellsman
Colt
Hi
JennyK,
it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.
JennyK,it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.
JennyK
Gelding
"not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential."
I expect you are right,
Nellsman, but the slight concern I have about lists, which I think is implied in your comment and which Lee believed VDW used a lot, is that when I've had one in previous years and now this, I have a tendency to view a "list" horse more generously than I would a non-listed horse with the same credentials.
From that point of view, yesterday's Dash handicap at Epsom was salutary. As far as I was concerned there were only four VDW "form" horses in the field, a 6yo who could readily be discounted and three much more interesting 4yos.
Lexington Blitz was on the list I've posted on a separate thread, based on winning an all age handicap as a 3yo, but not one I am following because he had already won this year before I compiled it.
Arklow Lad, who did not run in the UK in 2025 and could not therefore be on the list.
Kinswoman, who is on the list and I hope will win in 2026.
Kinswoman duly popped up as a list horse in my Excel book for the Dash and despite the fact that on both the ways I assess ability, VDW's ability rating and my check rating for ability based on the tables in the Roushayd illustration, and my performance ratings, both Lexington Blitz and Arklow Lad had the beating of her, I found myself including her in my book for the race. A case of sentiment clouding logic.
I expect you are right,
Nellsman, but the slight concern I have about lists, which I think is implied in your comment and which Lee believed VDW used a lot, is that when I've had one in previous years and now this, I have a tendency to view a "list" horse more generously than I would a non-listed horse with the same credentials.From that point of view, yesterday's Dash handicap at Epsom was salutary. As far as I was concerned there were only four VDW "form" horses in the field, a 6yo who could readily be discounted and three much more interesting 4yos.
Lexington Blitz was on the list I've posted on a separate thread, based on winning an all age handicap as a 3yo, but not one I am following because he had already won this year before I compiled it.
Arklow Lad, who did not run in the UK in 2025 and could not therefore be on the list.
Kinswoman, who is on the list and I hope will win in 2026.
Kinswoman duly popped up as a list horse in my Excel book for the Dash and despite the fact that on both the ways I assess ability, VDW's ability rating and my check rating for ability based on the tables in the Roushayd illustration, and my performance ratings, both Lexington Blitz and Arklow Lad had the beating of her, I found myself including her in my book for the race. A case of sentiment clouding logic.
stedz
Filly
I might be thought of as a lurker too , but i can reassure anyone that it is not for monetary gain. I only bet on NH racing between oct to May. I might have a bet on a couple of Galway Races ,jumps that is but that is that .I am a form man ,i do my own study methods EG Class Distance Going Trainer form past performance etc. Like everybody i suspect i have winning and losing runs. I respect Cheshams point of view entirely if he is doing all the work for others to benefit though. If people are doing that then they are missing the most enjoyable part of the hobby ie using your own opinion to pick winners.
BC
Filly
It's a good question, but a VDW thread is, perhaps, not the best place to ask.
I think you'll get more responses if you pose your question in its own thread, perhaps in the Chat or Software forums.
Getting AI to behave is not easy. You have to think through your question carefully and be very specific. If something smells 'off' with the answer, don't be afraid to push back. What I mean by that is, challenge AI about its answer. I often find it comes back and says something like, "You were quite right to push back against XYZ." You could also double-check elsewhere - maybe with a different AI.
Nellsman
Colt
Hi guy's,
it's been a while since I've made any meaningful posts, I haven't really been participating but I have been busy working away on my handicap class ratings. Today I worked most of the class 3 and class 2 handicaps. Whilst I am most concerned with my own ratings I also keep a close watch and use VDW AR ratings. Below are today's results.
3:03 Chester Dark Thirty 9/2 VDW class/form horse
4:10 Chester Start Me Up 4/1 VDW class/form horse
1:40 Newcastle Room Service 22//1 VDW class horse
2:40 Newcastle Believeitandyoucan 10/2 2nd VDW class/form horse
3:15 Newcastle Align The Stars 10/1 VDW class horse
3:45 Newcastle Tuco Salamanca 13/2 2nd VDW class/form horse
1:55 York Andesite 2nd 5/1 VDW 2nd class/form horse.
2:25 York Naana's Shadow 16/5 VDW class/form horse.
Pretty good going I say, credit where credits due.
it's been a while since I've made any meaningful posts, I haven't really been participating but I have been busy working away on my handicap class ratings. Today I worked most of the class 3 and class 2 handicaps. Whilst I am most concerned with my own ratings I also keep a close watch and use VDW AR ratings. Below are today's results.
3:03 Chester Dark Thirty 9/2 VDW class/form horse
4:10 Chester Start Me Up 4/1 VDW class/form horse
1:40 Newcastle Room Service 22//1 VDW class horse
2:40 Newcastle Believeitandyoucan 10/2 2nd VDW class/form horse
3:15 Newcastle Align The Stars 10/1 VDW class horse
3:45 Newcastle Tuco Salamanca 13/2 2nd VDW class/form horse
1:55 York Andesite 2nd 5/1 VDW 2nd class/form horse.
2:25 York Naana's Shadow 16/5 VDW class/form horse.
Pretty good going I say, credit where credits due.
Chesham
Sire
It’s better if you post Pre Race
Nellsman. We already have your mate
JennyK after timing this evening on the The Ability Thread. Typical VDW After Timers
This was
comments.
Nellsman. We already have your mate
JennyK after timing this evening on the The Ability Thread. Typical VDW After TimersThis was
comments.
Master Summary: Corrected Timeform & Full Comments (Chester 3.03)
- Today's Median OR: 86 | Base Weight: 9-7
| Horse | OR | Adj. CCR Trajectory (L3) | Tfig Trajectory (L3) | TFR Trajectory (L3) | Handicap Assessment & Full Timeform Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratusnine | 95 | 80 ➔ 95 ➔ PU | 94 ➔ 102 ➔ PU | 80 ➔ 95 ➔ PU | -5 lbs (Excuses Last Time / Risky Jumper): has already gone close in a couple of handicaps this year and shaped as if still in form, doing all he could from out wider on the track than all those that finished ahead of him; held up, pushed along 2f out, edged left final 1f, stayed on, not ideally placed. (Note: Slipped and PU here 2 starts ago). |
| Dark Thirty | 93 | 90 ➔ 69 ➔ 94 | 100 ➔ 73 ➔ 103 | 90 ➔ 69 ➔ 94 | +5 lbs (Class Dropper / Solid Effort LTO): was much closer to the form of his York win than last time; went right leaving stalls, handy, pushed along halfway, kept on, no impression on winner. |
| Solar Aclaim | 92 | 95 ➔ 83 ➔ 18 | 100 ➔ 81 ➔ 49 | 95 ➔ 83 ➔ 18 | +3 lbs (In Form / Trip Risk): was well backed despite the drying ground not necessarily being in his favour, but he belied those fears with a cosy success from a mark that had dipped 6 lb below his last winning one, his stable having hit form lately; steadied at the start, held up, headway when switched over 1f out, led final 1f, comfortably; he's unlikely to be handicapped out of things after this, though the going will likely dictate where he goes next (has a fine record on ground softer than good). |
| Stormy Impact | 92 | 96 ➔ 71 ➔ 92 | 95 ➔ 73 ➔ 91 | 96 ➔ 71 ➔ 92 | Level (Trip Step-Up Suits): stepped up on comeback run despite things happening a bit too quickly kept to the minimum trip, sure to benefit from a return to 6f; slowly into stride, in rear towards near side, outpaced, headway when hung left over 1f out, kept on final 1f, took fourth close home. |
| We Never Stop | 86 | 44 ➔ 40 ➔ 54 | 46 ➔ 45 ➔ 64 | 44 ➔ 40 ➔ 54 | -32 lbs (Form Collapse): fared no better than last time, an inefficient ride admittedly not helping matters; slowly into stride, soon rushed up to go prominent, weakened over 1f out. |
| Purest Time | 85 | 82 ➔ 66 ➔ 82 | 93 ➔ 71 ➔ 81 | 82 ➔ 66 ➔ 82 | -3 lbs (Needs Ideal Setup): had slipped to a career-low mark and bounced back to his best returned to turf after 3 months off; slowly into stride, raced well off the pace, pushed along over 2f out, forced to switch over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home; he'll not be handicapped out of things next time judged on what he was showing last autumn. |
| Rosenpur | 84 | 77 ➔ 90 ➔ 65 | 91 ➔ 92 ➔ 83 | 77 ➔ 90 ➔ 65 | +2 lbs (Inconsistent / Likes Track): predictably found things harder up in grade, though did have to work to get the lead from his wide draw; made running, headed final 1f, weakening when short of room close home. |
| Candonomore | 82 | 46 ➔ 71 ➔ 78 | 81 ➔ 88 ➔ 88 | 46 ➔ 71 ➔ 78 | -4 lbs (Needs Further): proved to be a disappointment, his finishing effort a tame one, especially given he stays further; prominent, led on bridle 2f out, pushed along soon after, headed final 1f, found less than looked likely; recent record suggests he's likely to bounce back to form sooner rather than later. |
| Rubys Angel | 86 | 60 ➔ 76 ➔ 87 | 72 ➔ 91 ➔ 87 | 60 ➔ 76 ➔ 87 | +1 lb (Ascending 3yo / Course Winner): was up 5 lb higher than for her Chester win but wasn't in the same form; raced off the pace, ridden over 2f out, not quicken. |
- The Class Dropper (Dark Thirty - 6.80): Another horse dropping out of elite Class 2 company. He won a massive 22-runner handicap at York three starts ago, clocking a 103 Tfig (Speed). Last time out, he ran 2nd while recording a highly efficient 98.26% FSP. He has the tactical speed to sit handy at Chester and the class to finish.
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JennyK
Gelding
I agree with you re the 3.45 Newcastle,
Nellsman, with for me Tucu Salamandar second on class/form behind Strike Red.
I don't agree re the 3.03 Chester, though, as for me Dark Thirty was not a VDW "form" horse.
The other races I've looked at today are sprint handicaps at Windsor (where I have Alasrae as the class/form horse), and Lingfield (Lazzar though no significant difference in ARs for the top three), so I can't comment on the others you've looked at.
If you backed those you have listed, you have had a good day. Personally I didn't rate any of "my" four class/form horses strong enough to back, though obviously with hindsight I wish I'd backed Strike Red ew!
Nellsman, with for me Tucu Salamandar second on class/form behind Strike Red.I don't agree re the 3.03 Chester, though, as for me Dark Thirty was not a VDW "form" horse.
The other races I've looked at today are sprint handicaps at Windsor (where I have Alasrae as the class/form horse), and Lingfield (Lazzar though no significant difference in ARs for the top three), so I can't comment on the others you've looked at.
If you backed those you have listed, you have had a good day. Personally I didn't rate any of "my" four class/form horses strong enough to back, though obviously with hindsight I wish I'd backed Strike Red ew!
Chesham
Sire
This is a classic Chester setup: a tight, sharp, left-handed track where early pace and stall position dictate the entire race flow.
1. The Tactical Pace Map & Draw Advantage
Chester heavily favors horses that can break fast and secure the rail.- The Early Speed: Stratusnine, Dark Thirty, We Never Stop, and Rosenpur all share prominent/front-running profiles.
- The Draw Decider: Dark Thirty possessed a massive tactical advantage breaking from Stall 4. His main pace rivals, Rosenpur (Stall 7) and Stratusnine (Stall 9), were drawn wide. This allowed Dark Thirty to secure the rail and control the pace without being forced to expend suicidal energy, negating the usual penalty applied to top-weight front-runners in contested pacemaps.
2. The Mechanical Adjustments (Hybrid VDW)
- The Class Dropper: Dark Thirty generated a massive Raw Peak OR His victory at York two starts ago was in a 22-runner Class 2 race with a 103 OR ceiling. Dropping into a Class 3 today, he was the undisputed class act of the field.
- The Wide Top-Weight Anchor: Stratusnine (Stall 9, 10-2) suffered a severe mechanical veto. Attempting to cross over from a wide draw while carrying top weight around Chester's bends is a mathematical nightmare.
The Final Hybrid VDW Hierarchy
Here is the finalized race analysis. The PR% has been permanently locked in to measure the adjusted biological engine against market expectations.| Horse | PR% | TFR (L3) | Tfig (L3) | Final Hybrid VDW | Mechanical Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Thirty (IRE) | 266 | Pending | Pending | 90 | Elite Pick: Massive class dropper with the inside draw advantage. |
| Stormy Impact | 281 | Pending | Pending | 87 | Live Danger: High peak OR with a late sectional closing upgrade. |
| Purest Time | 266 | Pending | Pending | 86 | Live Threat: Upgraded closer profile to pick up the pieces. |
| Stratusnine (IRE) | 283 | Pending | Pending | 84 | Vulnerable: Top-weight wide draw anchor applied. |
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gerry
Mare
I still believe my horse
Chesham just missed the kick at start and being 3yold against these older got blocked in and when made move in inside although was tight gap jockey hesitated for second to go in there and just beat length over all was unlucky is not fair but inexperienced against older for first time made difference. And was happy at least this tight little affair which i said it was at beginning was fastest time of day and proved to be decent race.
Chesham just missed the kick at start and being 3yold against these older got blocked in and when made move in inside although was tight gap jockey hesitated for second to go in there and just beat length over all was unlucky is not fair but inexperienced against older for first time made difference. And was happy at least this tight little affair which i said it was at beginning was fastest time of day and proved to be decent race.
Nellsman
Colt
Hi
Chesham,
I owe you and the rest of the forum an apology, you're correct it does look terrible. I was going over yesterdays results as I usually do after racing and I noticed that the VDW class/form method had had a bit of a field day. I thought I'd post them up here (the VDW class/form thread) as a means to encourage other VDW fans and show them that the method still seems to be going okay.
I've noticed a lot of your posts can be very technical and I find them difficult to read. I'm still a pencil and paper man myself, hence I go through the individual race results of each race that I have analysed that particular day. It was then I realised what a good day the VDW method had. Truth be told I was really surprised and I decided to post them here to let people know that the method does still seem to be effective.
Your right of course it does look like after timing and I apologise sincerely.
Chesham,I owe you and the rest of the forum an apology, you're correct it does look terrible. I was going over yesterdays results as I usually do after racing and I noticed that the VDW class/form method had had a bit of a field day. I thought I'd post them up here (the VDW class/form thread) as a means to encourage other VDW fans and show them that the method still seems to be going okay.
I've noticed a lot of your posts can be very technical and I find them difficult to read. I'm still a pencil and paper man myself, hence I go through the individual race results of each race that I have analysed that particular day. It was then I realised what a good day the VDW method had. Truth be told I was really surprised and I decided to post them here to let people know that the method does still seem to be effective.
Your right of course it does look like after timing and I apologise sincerely.