Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Another disappointing day. The Last Rival Prize Money filter had several winners on top or 2nd rated though. Somehow I'm managing to throw most of them away though or pick the wrong one of 2.
Attachments
It seems Mr Gosden's yard has hit some form and several of his from a few weeks back are turning up like different horses, as with Lead Artist yesterday. His horse didn't just win the 6:15, it won as it liked. Bopedro couldn't get near it.
gerry
Mare
Yeah agree and the thing is i think could have won the race at any distance from 1mile up so we cant even say bopedro didn't stay just got slaughtered by better horse looks like improver too.
I think the funny thing is both horses looked on right marks to go close but when you think about it 3yold turning 4 is going to show improvement and maybe that should be added in which would have pointed to winner.
I think the funny thing is both horses looked on right marks to go close but when you think about it 3yold turning 4 is going to show improvement and maybe that should be added in which would have pointed to winner.
JennyK
Gelding
Nigel Tinkler's stable could do well today in handicaps. Not sure about his runner in the 3.25 Nott. but his first two at Pontefract are in my view the VDW class/form horses in their races (both class droppers with perfect/excellent key horse support) and in the closer his is near the front end of the market.
I agree that both Theme Park and Squealer are the class/form horses in their races. Though Squealer was 2nd class/form until Twilight Jet was withdrawn.
Squealer looks to have a lot in favour, including the trait I posted about on the Erin thread today. Incidentally the Erin rating is 5 but the Alt Erin is 9. But regardless, looks a genuine fav.
Theme Park doesn't have the AR trait in it's form, however every horse that beat TP in the last 3 runs increased it's AR to much better level than TP's.
E fig is 19 and AE 8.
Mudamer would be the threat in my view, but this is a far less competitive races than the ones Theme Park has been running in, so looks like a very live chance this evening.
JennyK
Gelding
Just to show how easy it is to assemble the basic VDW table for a prospective race, taking the earliest of the three sprint handicaps tomorrow (25 May):
Shazani, ability rating 85, form status n (no)
Call Glory, 61, n
Jimmy Knocker, 50, y (and no disqualifying issues among conditions.)
Dark Side Thunder, 46, n
Skellig Isle, 44, n
Looks Fantastic, 37, n
Spirit Of Jenny, 37, y (and no disqualifying issues among conditions)
Fenlander, 0, n
The VDW class/form horse is Jimmy Knocker and second (and last) on class/form is Spirit of Jenny who, like Partisan Hero on Saturday, would be promoted to the class/form horse if Jimmy Knocker became a non-runner.
From a VDW perspective, the question then becomes is Jimmy Knocker a class/form horse to be backed? VDW said that less than 20% were "winner in the race" types and should be backed, the other 80+% should be left?
My own view on that is, given his record:
19/12/24 - 4th after 238 days absence
11/06/25 - 4th after 88 days absence
and his wins
02/01/25 - after 14 days absence
01/08/25 - after 16 days absence
it would be unwarranted to back him coming back after 297 days, so very much one of the 80+% of VDW class/form horses that should not be backed.
Happy days.
Shazani, ability rating 85, form status n (no)
Call Glory, 61, n
Jimmy Knocker, 50, y (and no disqualifying issues among conditions.)
Dark Side Thunder, 46, n
Skellig Isle, 44, n
Looks Fantastic, 37, n
Spirit Of Jenny, 37, y (and no disqualifying issues among conditions)
Fenlander, 0, n
The VDW class/form horse is Jimmy Knocker and second (and last) on class/form is Spirit of Jenny who, like Partisan Hero on Saturday, would be promoted to the class/form horse if Jimmy Knocker became a non-runner.
From a VDW perspective, the question then becomes is Jimmy Knocker a class/form horse to be backed? VDW said that less than 20% were "winner in the race" types and should be backed, the other 80+% should be left?
My own view on that is, given his record:
19/12/24 - 4th after 238 days absence
11/06/25 - 4th after 88 days absence
and his wins
02/01/25 - after 14 days absence
01/08/25 - after 16 days absence
it would be unwarranted to back him coming back after 297 days, so very much one of the 80+% of VDW class/form horses that should not be backed.
Happy days.
formtheory
Stallion
VDW “from the three most consistent …
He never said the whole field in that particular article.
I do feel VDW only used the ability ratings of the consistent horses.
And gave a cross check also of the top 3 ability ratings from the five most consistent in the field.
He never said the whole field in that particular article.
I do feel VDW only used the ability ratings of the consistent horses.
And gave a cross check also of the top 3 ability ratings from the five most consistent in the field.
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JennyK
Gelding
"I do feel VDW only used the ability ratings of the consistent horses."
That is a perfectly plausible conclusion from the layout of the Pegwell Bay example,
formtheory.
We know VDW advised "rate the entire fields for ability" and that despite his emphasis on consistency some of his selections were not among the three most consistent, Roushayd for example. The conclusion I draw from the evidence as a whole is that ability and form status were primary, which is implied in his term "class/form horse". To what extent consistency played a part in separating the <20% of "potential winners" he backed and the >80% he left is for me an open question.
That is a perfectly plausible conclusion from the layout of the Pegwell Bay example,
formtheory.We know VDW advised "rate the entire fields for ability" and that despite his emphasis on consistency some of his selections were not among the three most consistent, Roushayd for example. The conclusion I draw from the evidence as a whole is that ability and form status were primary, which is implied in his term "class/form horse". To what extent consistency played a part in separating the <20% of "potential winners" he backed and the >80% he left is for me an open question.
formtheory
Stallion
I think the Pegwell Bay article can be read in a number of ways that is interesting particularly sonething along the lines of “ the first part of the method has been shown many times “ and says that the three most consistent “first numerical picture”. Which in a way implies that the class ratings of the LTO race are the second numerical picture (or part of it )
I’ve not looked at all selections but most avd I believe most of the selections Ability ratings will match with either being in the three most consistent or in the top 3 LTO class (second numerical picture? )
I know everyone has different views and that’s fair enough but actually reading what he says in that particular article I believe that’s what he is saying .
Might be wrong though,
Have a great day.
I’ve not looked at all selections but most avd I believe most of the selections Ability ratings will match with either being in the three most consistent or in the top 3 LTO class (second numerical picture? )
I know everyone has different views and that’s fair enough but actually reading what he says in that particular article I believe that’s what he is saying .
Might be wrong though,
Have a great day.
JennyK
Gelding
Thanks,
formtheory, and the same to you. At the moment it looks a bit mixed. Weather superb and I've been up since 6.00 tying in our sweet peas before it gets too hot. But we have a keen West Ham fan and his wife coming for lunch and I imagine he won't be too cheerful.
What I really need to make the day is to find I have spotted the "less obvious form" winner of the 4.43 Redcar and he (Archduke Ferdinand) beats the less than rock-solid class/form horse, Artagnan. These "less obvious form" ones are always speccy, as VDW gave little guidance, but the prior placings, 2025 and 2026, will hopefully prove indicative that they aim to win the race again today. As we all know, aiming is one thing, success is another, so I am far from counting my winnings!
formtheory, and the same to you. At the moment it looks a bit mixed. Weather superb and I've been up since 6.00 tying in our sweet peas before it gets too hot. But we have a keen West Ham fan and his wife coming for lunch and I imagine he won't be too cheerful.What I really need to make the day is to find I have spotted the "less obvious form" winner of the 4.43 Redcar and he (Archduke Ferdinand) beats the less than rock-solid class/form horse, Artagnan. These "less obvious form" ones are always speccy, as VDW gave little guidance, but the prior placings, 2025 and 2026, will hopefully prove indicative that they aim to win the race again today. As we all know, aiming is one thing, success is another, so I am far from counting my winnings!
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