Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
I think that you would attract much more attention. If you were to set out the races that interest you, pre race like the one VDW did
JennyK
Gelding
With hindsight, I should perhaps have copied my post from the Bowers thread and included it in my post 1053 on this one. Easily rectified:
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
"re VDW's method, I think I posted a table showing how a VDW analysis is undertaken, using one of his examples, but I can't immediately find it, so I have re-screenshotted it and posted it on the class/form thread of the VDW section rather than disrupt this one, other than to point out it is a three stage process. Ranking the ability ratings (a wholly objective process), applying VDW's method of rating form status (equally objective, when one has worked out what it is) and checking for disqualifying negatives among the conditions issues (distance, going, course type and weight). The top horse in the ability column with a yes in the form status column and not a no in the conditions column is the VDW class/form horse, whether one is considering a race run thirty-eight years ago, yesterday or being run tomorrow."
That, the Pegwell Bay grid in post 1053, and the pre-race example set out in post 1055, describe the VDW approach as I see it (others such as
formtheory and possibly
nagwa, have reached different conclusions). The other class/form horse mentioned, Artagnan, was found in exactly the same way.
gerry
Mare
This is one race today i think i have one horse i really like from class and form points it is in the 4 05 hamilton.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
LAW OF AVERAGES won last time out and you could argue it was its best run of turf beat BINADHAM a neck that day and that horse is 2lb better of so you could argue there nothing between them today.
Both horses are of similar ability and both going up in class today so they need to improve to win in my thoughts anyway.
ORIENTAL PRINCE you could say has been running in better class on all weather and dropping in class but when you go to the horses last grass run was well beat by VINCE LA' MOUR in slightly lower class than this.
But this is where form and class should tell TIVA when you look at this horse when it won at Newmarket it had BINADHAM well beat behind it but when you look at last couple runs or three it ran in two listed races well out classed, then gave it sharpner first time out still well above class and run well for first run so your looking at horse dropping in class dropping closer to its last winning mark only 3lb above and well track might not suit but won at newmarket so surely should be fine have quick look oh only run once at hamilton before and won all be it a novice event.
How is this horse 4/1 in this race i am not sure but win or loss it is the class form horse.
Choose this thread to say, hands up I am one of those leurkers you all seem to hate.
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
I have been on the site for quite a while.
Never felt confident enough to post anything, confronted with all the expert opinions offered.
Following lots of you who are now getting involved in AI, I tried to do the same thing.
My attempt at instructing AI, I thought was going very well, gave me lots of good info. Then only to find out it was lying/hallucinating!
Luckily I had waited long enough for it to prove itself before putting on any decent bets.
Any advice on getting AI to do what it is told?
JennyK
Gelding
In the 2.00 Carlisle, Brosay is in my view the VDW class/form horse, and as a class-dropper has good supporting key horse form.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
For me, from a VDW perspective, he has quite a lot in favour but two question marks. First, although his last run was a "form" run, he was much more of an outsider than one looks for, 14th (the VDW example Balmers Coombe comes to mind). Second, he is carrying 9.10 and is not proven with that much weight (and giving weight to all his opponents except Realign).
A chance, and a double-figure price, but not to my mind one of the <20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed.
Nellsman
Colt
Hi
JennyK,
it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.
JennyK,it's always difficult to discount unexposed horses that seem to be not form horses. I'm pretty sure VDW had a mechanism to isolate these types. So that not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential. Mr Haggas had 3 winners that day at Carlisle, all 3 produced their best ever RPR. All 3 were head of the market.
JennyK
Gelding
"not only would he not be unaware of them, he would be fully alive to their potential."
I expect you are right,
Nellsman, but the slight concern I have about lists, which I think is implied in your comment and which Lee believed VDW used a lot, is that when I've had one in previous years and now this, I have a tendency to view a "list" horse more generously than I would a non-listed horse with the same credentials.
From that point of view, yesterday's Dash handicap at Epsom was salutary. As far as I was concerned there were only four VDW "form" horses in the field, a 6yo who could readily be discounted and three much more interesting 4yos.
Lexington Blitz was on the list I've posted on a separate thread, based on winning an all age handicap as a 3yo, but not one I am following because he had already won this year before I compiled it.
Arklow Lad, who did not run in the UK in 2025 and could not therefore be on the list.
Kinswoman, who is on the list and I hope will win in 2026.
Kinswoman duly popped up as a list horse in my Excel book for the Dash and despite the fact that on both the ways I assess ability, VDW's ability rating and my check rating for ability based on the tables in the Roushayd illustration, and my performance ratings, both Lexington Blitz and Arklow Lad had the beating of her, I found myself including her in my book for the race. A case of sentiment clouding logic.
I expect you are right,
Nellsman, but the slight concern I have about lists, which I think is implied in your comment and which Lee believed VDW used a lot, is that when I've had one in previous years and now this, I have a tendency to view a "list" horse more generously than I would a non-listed horse with the same credentials.From that point of view, yesterday's Dash handicap at Epsom was salutary. As far as I was concerned there were only four VDW "form" horses in the field, a 6yo who could readily be discounted and three much more interesting 4yos.
Lexington Blitz was on the list I've posted on a separate thread, based on winning an all age handicap as a 3yo, but not one I am following because he had already won this year before I compiled it.
Arklow Lad, who did not run in the UK in 2025 and could not therefore be on the list.
Kinswoman, who is on the list and I hope will win in 2026.
Kinswoman duly popped up as a list horse in my Excel book for the Dash and despite the fact that on both the ways I assess ability, VDW's ability rating and my check rating for ability based on the tables in the Roushayd illustration, and my performance ratings, both Lexington Blitz and Arklow Lad had the beating of her, I found myself including her in my book for the race. A case of sentiment clouding logic.
stedz
Filly
I might be thought of as a lurker too , but i can reassure anyone that it is not for monetary gain. I only bet on NH racing between oct to May. I might have a bet on a couple of Galway Races ,jumps that is but that is that .I am a form man ,i do my own study methods EG Class Distance Going Trainer form past performance etc. Like everybody i suspect i have winning and losing runs. I respect Cheshams point of view entirely if he is doing all the work for others to benefit though. If people are doing that then they are missing the most enjoyable part of the hobby ie using your own opinion to pick winners.
BC
Filly
It's a good question, but a VDW thread is, perhaps, not the best place to ask.
I think you'll get more responses if you pose your question in its own thread, perhaps in the Chat or Software forums.
Getting AI to behave is not easy. You have to think through your question carefully and be very specific. If something smells 'off' with the answer, don't be afraid to push back. What I mean by that is, challenge AI about its answer. I often find it comes back and says something like, "You were quite right to push back against XYZ." You could also double-check elsewhere - maybe with a different AI.