Can singles show profit.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
Well i left yesterday as yet a other poor racing day but finally i feel today could be ok with 4 horses i am looking at yet again there is always some thing to doubt , as i am finding the doubt part very helpfull indeed as thats where you get final analyzing on how much to bet as much as anything else or indeed bet at all. So i will try give my doubts more .
2 10 BEVERLEY EVOCATIVE SPARK. This horse after poor all weather runs which is fine as it just isnt a all weaather horse ran apoor race at doncaster which again is fine as it likes abend too run round as it showed at chester last time massive improvment.
Little bizarre why likes chester and beverley where only run twice here first and second, both the races here was of mark of 78 now running of 74 so there is no reason it should not be bang there.
So why doubts well trainer lack of winners for one although had good second yesterday and its running against i really in form horse.
3 10 BEVERLEY ZOZIMUS. Now this horse i have been following lately and bet ran a cracker three runs back which made me think was good thing next time out but dropped back to 7fur i had bet it that day and sat at back and then got no run till pulled it wide late on and flow home but to place sadly well forth actually.
It then went back up to class 3 again where i still gave it big chance on three runs back and got pipped on line again annoying to say least.
Has run three times round here being a eyecatcher one of those races to and slightly less mark today and you will find i like one of o'mearas at hamilton too so tudhope had choice and came for this one instead.
So why any doubts well its winning stats are poor just once and that was maiden in ireland and seems better on good ground but there no doubt the form is in book to win this.
3 20 HAMILTON BUSTAAM. This horse run well on saturday and quick turn round but i think this looks too good a race to miss so worth ago.
Stepped up to mile and half last couple runs seems to have suited it although didnt earlier on in racing career.
So could say more doubts about this one exspecially tudhope going to beverley and distance and quick turn round but the class of race gives it chance.
4 20 HAMILTON SLAINTE MHATH. This horse ran two good races last runs and has won round here three times so when yout hink they where at york and ayr this track suits better must be spot on for big run.Ground should be spot on to so alot to like and stable flying just now massive plus to.
So what not to like well the mark is little high and could be needs dropped couple pounds but you could also argue its last two runs best of career so if thats case then should be upto winning of this mark in this race at this track and they have right winning jockey on it to.
i got 2/1 it but see already been cut so odds little skimpy maybe.
2 10 BEVERLEY EVOCATIVE SPARK. This horse after poor all weather runs which is fine as it just isnt a all weaather horse ran apoor race at doncaster which again is fine as it likes abend too run round as it showed at chester last time massive improvment.
Little bizarre why likes chester and beverley where only run twice here first and second, both the races here was of mark of 78 now running of 74 so there is no reason it should not be bang there.
So why doubts well trainer lack of winners for one although had good second yesterday and its running against i really in form horse.
3 10 BEVERLEY ZOZIMUS. Now this horse i have been following lately and bet ran a cracker three runs back which made me think was good thing next time out but dropped back to 7fur i had bet it that day and sat at back and then got no run till pulled it wide late on and flow home but to place sadly well forth actually.
It then went back up to class 3 again where i still gave it big chance on three runs back and got pipped on line again annoying to say least.
Has run three times round here being a eyecatcher one of those races to and slightly less mark today and you will find i like one of o'mearas at hamilton too so tudhope had choice and came for this one instead.
So why any doubts well its winning stats are poor just once and that was maiden in ireland and seems better on good ground but there no doubt the form is in book to win this.
3 20 HAMILTON BUSTAAM. This horse run well on saturday and quick turn round but i think this looks too good a race to miss so worth ago.
Stepped up to mile and half last couple runs seems to have suited it although didnt earlier on in racing career.
So could say more doubts about this one exspecially tudhope going to beverley and distance and quick turn round but the class of race gives it chance.
4 20 HAMILTON SLAINTE MHATH. This horse ran two good races last runs and has won round here three times so when yout hink they where at york and ayr this track suits better must be spot on for big run.Ground should be spot on to so alot to like and stable flying just now massive plus to.
So what not to like well the mark is little high and could be needs dropped couple pounds but you could also argue its last two runs best of career so if thats case then should be upto winning of this mark in this race at this track and they have right winning jockey on it to.
i got 2/1 it but see already been cut so odds little skimpy maybe.
gerry
Mare
Looking at my derby bet on ambiente friendly which i had been betting for few weeks now on hope of drying ground.
It looks like the best i can hope for is good to soft this horse is breed to be fast and love fast ground as it showed at lingfield.
So although bets are on and not much i can do bar lay of at loss there only one derby and it ahs at least run on softer and i am sure they will have crack either way so bet stays on.
And if it wins this could be a very good horse in deed not for just winning but for winning on ground that is not ideal we will see but obviously looking at forecast that will be finished on my bets till race now.
It looks like the best i can hope for is good to soft this horse is breed to be fast and love fast ground as it showed at lingfield.
So although bets are on and not much i can do bar lay of at loss there only one derby and it ahs at least run on softer and i am sure they will have crack either way so bet stays on.
And if it wins this could be a very good horse in deed not for just winning but for winning on ground that is not ideal we will see but obviously looking at forecast that will be finished on my bets till race now.
gerry
Mare
Well there my first one as i said at start the most important thing seems to be the doubts and said it was running against a really in form horse lucky i did bet it without that horse in race and these are things you must look at.
Never bet forcast .
I done that with two of my horses today also done it with bustaam with tudhope going for other one.
Never bet forcast .
I done that with two of my horses today also done it with bustaam with tudhope going for other one.
Blimey! Go find that winner! I couldn't in a million years!
gerry
Mare
yeah just shows there always one to do you exspecially if there is doubts and as again zozimus was didnt win enough and second again and tudhope did go for the right one too as bustaam run no sort of race as the distance was again no good.
Just shows that no matter what you find as pluses for a horse in a race the negatives can balance it out to make it still doubtfull and not making exscuses for todays as i did have bets on them to win now need they last one to just break even but thats horses racing and why its very rare you get one without doubts which is why i try give the doubts just as much credit as the pluses.
Just shows that no matter what you find as pluses for a horse in a race the negatives can balance it out to make it still doubtfull and not making exscuses for todays as i did have bets on them to win now need they last one to just break even but thats horses racing and why its very rare you get one without doubts which is why i try give the doubts just as much credit as the pluses.
gerry
Mare
Well thats the beauty of racing again placed but doubts proved correct on all four races so what do you do you just need luck to go with the positives and the small things like draw and going to be right on the day, but you learn every single day on whats the doubts more than you do on whats the positives, as we all know the positive bets after bit of work, but there is always usually something that will get it beat and its deciding if its worth the gamble or not. and i suppose thats where value really comes into it also is it the right price to go for it or not makes sense when you think of it.
gerry
Mare
Not sure why not many people talking about horses any more maybe its the ground and they just cant be bothered even looking at the races which i do understand as its not easy finding it very tough myself to just break even at best but i think keeping eye in has rewards to even if its to remember the horses names for quick memory idea of what they like.
This is the biggest day for weather for the derby with rain exspected today and the going has dried alittle by look of latest report, so lets hope as little rain later today as friday and saturday supposed to be dry.
Although i really am dissapointed not fast as my antipost bet would have shortened alot of so.
Anyway had alook today and there only two on flat i think have possible chances for me to bet.
4 20 ripon LOYAL TOUCH.
After running well on all weather this horse ran cracker at chester then was just outclassed last time although can hardly say was poor run as only beat about 5 lengths in good race. The stable are going really well with fancied horses as in running close or winning which you cant always say for this stable on fancied runners.The only two other horses supposed to be better class are right out of form so you could say its class horse of race.
Now for the doubts which mean alot to me anyway i think track will be fine but the ground is a worry will it be to soft, only run once with any soft in description and was well beat but when you look at class of race compared to this the run wasnt to bad.Also was over slightly further.
You could argue its mark couple to high but in this race must have chance.
5 55 carlisle BURJ MALINKA.
This horse i have no worry about going as loves it soft, run well last time concidering fast ground. Has only run once round here but again was fast ground so run well concidering yet again. Has won of this mark to before so there no reason to ask it to do some thing impossible.
Going to the doubts i did find it hard to find any on form only thing that worries me is it a amateur race although jockey has not bad stats and it can be up with pace which i like in these races so its not till i have started writing this that noticed i have little down side for this one.
This is the biggest day for weather for the derby with rain exspected today and the going has dried alittle by look of latest report, so lets hope as little rain later today as friday and saturday supposed to be dry.
Although i really am dissapointed not fast as my antipost bet would have shortened alot of so.
Anyway had alook today and there only two on flat i think have possible chances for me to bet.
4 20 ripon LOYAL TOUCH.
After running well on all weather this horse ran cracker at chester then was just outclassed last time although can hardly say was poor run as only beat about 5 lengths in good race. The stable are going really well with fancied horses as in running close or winning which you cant always say for this stable on fancied runners.The only two other horses supposed to be better class are right out of form so you could say its class horse of race.
Now for the doubts which mean alot to me anyway i think track will be fine but the ground is a worry will it be to soft, only run once with any soft in description and was well beat but when you look at class of race compared to this the run wasnt to bad.Also was over slightly further.
You could argue its mark couple to high but in this race must have chance.
5 55 carlisle BURJ MALINKA.
This horse i have no worry about going as loves it soft, run well last time concidering fast ground. Has only run once round here but again was fast ground so run well concidering yet again. Has won of this mark to before so there no reason to ask it to do some thing impossible.
Going to the doubts i did find it hard to find any on form only thing that worries me is it a amateur race although jockey has not bad stats and it can be up with pace which i like in these races so its not till i have started writing this that noticed i have little down side for this one.
gerry
Mare
Well after running through the racing today as you can imagine there alot that you could fancybut the one that sticks out the most with me or i should say with the least amount of doubts is ELEGANT ERIN 2 50 carlisle.
Has won round here ok on firm ground but seems to like any track as long as its stiff like beverley here pontefract so track is not a problem has won on soft even heavy so ground doesnt seem to bother it either, interesting jockey booking and trainer flying at moment.
So what are the doubts not really got any to be honest.
Has won round here ok on firm ground but seems to like any track as long as its stiff like beverley here pontefract so track is not a problem has won on soft even heavy so ground doesnt seem to bother it either, interesting jockey booking and trainer flying at moment.
So what are the doubts not really got any to be honest.
JennyK
Gelding
gerryThe 2.50 was one of the races I analysed today, without finding a bet in any of them.
I attach my charts for the first two home in the 2.50. They are based on my ratings, which I use in preference to the Post's not because I have any evidence that they are better but because obviously I know exactly how they are compiled, which I don't with the Post's. I attach the charts because I think they show the significanace a factor I did not get from my study of VDW's writings, though it may be there, but which I find is actually often very pertinent: age.
The charts, like the one I posted re Dutch Decoy, are completed on the hypothetical assumption that the horse concerned won, so that I can see its progression/regression curve and thus judge how likely it is to win.
With the 3yo, Angel Shared, very few runs (I only include handicaps) and the slope of the green line shows that she would need to be very progressive to win today (which in the event she showed she was). Before the race, and despite the obvious pluses for her, I was unwilling to back her to show that degree of improvement because 3yos in broadly her situation often show improvement it is not often that much so quickly. (Her margin of victory on 24/04/24 suggested she would indeed show improvement but even factoring that in I wasn't confident she would show enough today.)
With the 7yo, Elegant Erin, much more data of course and I've focused on runs from 2022 when she was a 5yo. The chart shows good progression in winning performances in 2022 but in the eleven handicap runs prior to today since the win on 14/09/22 she has really only been involved towards the finish once (05/08/23). I won't be at all surprised if she wins a race this year but my difficulty with this sort is spotting when that is likely to be. Hence I didn't back her today either.
Actually, I think VDW was positively unhelpful on this matter. In response to a Mr F Chester, who wrote that "ability however has its peaks and troughs. What's more a horse's ability fades in due course," VDW replied:
"In my view both statements are completely wrong. Usually ability will remain static, fluctuate slightly, progress steadily upwards or rise sharply. Ability cannot eventually fade."
Mr Chester, I think, was confusing ability with performance. Performances do indeed have peaks and troughs (impossible to prove, of course, but for example I think Dutch Decoy would have shown more today had the going been good/firm rather than good/soft). Mr Chester was certainly right, though, in saying that ability fades over time, as it does with us and all living creatures. VDW chose to respond from a very particular perspective - that of his ability rating. There, because it is an average, the pattern is often as he describes. But it does not mean that as a horse gets older, it can run to its "average ability" over previous years as suggested by the ability rating. On the Flat, 3yos and 4yos are usually progressive, as are many 5yos and some older horses. If a horse is kept in training long enough, though, it will always become evident that it can no longer run to the ability it had two or three years earlier, just as, for example, we can all see the decline in Andy Murray's tennis ability (largely for the same cause - age-related physical deterioration).
I have found factoring in age when assessing ability has overall been helpful in avoiding losing bets. Not infrequently I am put off a winner like Angel Shared because I take a conservative view about what degree of improvement a horse is likely to be able to achieve. But much more frequently I am put off older horses because they seem to be fading in ability terms and it is difficult to judge when their fading ability, placing in a lower class race and the right conditions all come together.
Attachments
JennyK
Gelding
In the 5.40 Epsom Rhoscolyn is of interest to me, to see whether he can show a little more improvement as a 6yo or at least "plateau". In his case the chart shows only handicaps on softer than good, with prize money below £40,000 as he has never shown himself competitive in higher class races than that. I think this is his best chance so far this year, and the green line suggests he is not without a chance, but I'd like to see a good performance today before hopefully backing him later in the year.
Attachments
Chesham
Sire
I can understand wanting to see how your horse performs
The Past Trends seem to heavily favour 3 YO as 22 of the past 25 races have been won by a 3yo
It must be the WFA
Only 2 Three year olds in todays running
JennyK
Gelding
Having posted charts for a 3yo, a 6yo and a 7yo, I thought I'd complete the set with two from the 7.45 Doncaster, a 4yo and a 5yo.
The 4yo, Supreme King, would appear to face an even stiffer task than the 3yo in the 2.50 - needs apparently unrealistic improvement to win. BUT like Angel Shared, he won very easily last time and depending on how we assess that, it mitigates the steepness of the improvement slope needed to be climbed. To form a view (which I haven't) one would need to study what he beat. If they were any good .... If not, the slope today looks far too steep for such a short-priced horse.
The 5yo, Another Investment, is to me more interesting, partly because he is on my to follow list and partly because his profile thus far is unusual; a handicapper who won a very decent race handicap comfortably at a top track, but that his only handicap win in 28 attempts. The green line suggests he could win tonight's race, in that the progression slope from his so far one and only win is entirely realistic and this is the easiest challenge he has faced since that win. That said, prior to today his last run, a fortnight ago, was only a touch more difficult than this and his performance then was disappointing. Hopefully he will show enough tonight to suggest he will win this year.
The 4yo, Supreme King, would appear to face an even stiffer task than the 3yo in the 2.50 - needs apparently unrealistic improvement to win. BUT like Angel Shared, he won very easily last time and depending on how we assess that, it mitigates the steepness of the improvement slope needed to be climbed. To form a view (which I haven't) one would need to study what he beat. If they were any good .... If not, the slope today looks far too steep for such a short-priced horse.
The 5yo, Another Investment, is to me more interesting, partly because he is on my to follow list and partly because his profile thus far is unusual; a handicapper who won a very decent race handicap comfortably at a top track, but that his only handicap win in 28 attempts. The green line suggests he could win tonight's race, in that the progression slope from his so far one and only win is entirely realistic and this is the easiest challenge he has faced since that win. That said, prior to today his last run, a fortnight ago, was only a touch more difficult than this and his performance then was disappointing. Hopefully he will show enough tonight to suggest he will win this year.
Attachments
gerry
Mare
Very good judgement jenny k nearly a great double but brilliant just the same.
I also have been toying with the age thing myself lately but when a horse runs a last race yes on slightly decline but still good enough to win todays race then its hard to leave alone, And i do agree i did say to myself before race the only thing that can spoil a really good win here is that 3yo which it did so maybe i should have had a doubt in the race enough at least to not make it such a strong bet.
I also have been toying with the age thing myself lately but when a horse runs a last race yes on slightly decline but still good enough to win todays race then its hard to leave alone, And i do agree i did say to myself before race the only thing that can spoil a really good win here is that 3yo which it did so maybe i should have had a doubt in the race enough at least to not make it such a strong bet.
gerry
Mare
Well looking at todays there is some nice racing again obviously i have my derby bet on anti post which i never do but felt ambiente friendly if ground came fast would win at shorter odds.
Still can ofcourse just a matter of seeing now as bets on and not much i can do.
Any way back to the rest of today there is two inam going to back.
APOLLO ONE 5 50 EPSOM.
This horse ran cracking race at newmarket first time out last year then run in this and was beat in photo finish.
Well has done same this year run close at newmarket although even better run than last year so should be spot on for this.
Differant ground today but if by end of day is decent good ground should be ideal.
I would say this is deffinatly the plan today so big chance. mr wagna is alot better of at weights today but had more runs to and less consistant.
PLUS POINT 4 38 DONCASTER.
This one just looks like form far superior to rest hopefully found the right distance as looked to far last time but in better race than this. Should be hard to beat in this.
Still can ofcourse just a matter of seeing now as bets on and not much i can do.
Any way back to the rest of today there is two inam going to back.
APOLLO ONE 5 50 EPSOM.
This horse ran cracking race at newmarket first time out last year then run in this and was beat in photo finish.
Well has done same this year run close at newmarket although even better run than last year so should be spot on for this.
Differant ground today but if by end of day is decent good ground should be ideal.
I would say this is deffinatly the plan today so big chance. mr wagna is alot better of at weights today but had more runs to and less consistant.
PLUS POINT 4 38 DONCASTER.
This one just looks like form far superior to rest hopefully found the right distance as looked to far last time but in better race than this. Should be hard to beat in this.