Can singles show profit.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
Well i gave my list of maybes last saturday and got 6 winners, So here they are for this saturday to.
TIBER FLOW 3 25 NEWMARKET.
AURORAS BEAUTY 4 00 NEWMARKET.
SENSORIUM 1 50 CHESTER.
AL SHABAB STORM 3 35 CHESTER.
SPRING BLOOM 4 25 WINDSOR.
INGELBY IVY 8 00 DONCASTER.
TURNER GIRL 8 30 DONCASTER.
TIBER FLOW 3 25 NEWMARKET.
AURORAS BEAUTY 4 00 NEWMARKET.
SENSORIUM 1 50 CHESTER.
AL SHABAB STORM 3 35 CHESTER.
SPRING BLOOM 4 25 WINDSOR.
INGELBY IVY 8 00 DONCASTER.
TURNER GIRL 8 30 DONCASTER.
gerry
Mare
Well have decided not to post up fancies lately as there is no point to it really in my eyes, so will just do little bits of chat here and there.
There is two horses who i deff left out today for certain reasons although they look like they had chance, will see if that was wise choice .
They are trushan and kylian.
There is two horses who i deff left out today for certain reasons although they look like they had chance, will see if that was wise choice .
They are trushan and kylian.
gerry
Mare
Have just went back checking my winners just more curious than anything else.
And i stopped at my last 226 winners and what i found is only 2 of them where double figures both 10/1.
I did have some 9/1 8/1 and so but found out the majority where 5/1 and below.
Dont get me wrong there was alot and i mean alot of losers in between that load of winners.
I now looked at the bets in that time and was about 700 and there was only 17 at 10/1 or above so incredibly would have showed margin profit just having those 17 bets.
The reason i sat and done that is reading some of the forum stories i got to think how important are the odds really to chances.
I thought of cheshams theory that a 6/1 value down the field bet is deff worse than solid 5/4 winner.
Then i thought do i really want value at 5/4 where you can only bet it to win and cant bet cover bets or e/w.
Then i was thinking is it really the first 5 in betting you should only be interested on or actually just nothing over 5/1 as there is no doubting it the bigger the odds the less chance in theory anyway.
I now looked at those 17 bets at 10/1 or over and seen 7 actually placed so betting e/w would have been profitable too.
I now looked at horses between 1/1 and 15/8 so no odds on and no 2/1 or above and had 23 winners out of 65 bets which actually shows slight losses.
I know checked last 200 bets between 3/1 and 5/1 and had 37 winners which showed likely small loss.
Not sure what this gives me as these were my noted down horses and maybe not quiet differant from solid bets.
Like if i cover bet the 3/1 to 5/1 which i usually do i am sure would have showed profit all be it small.
And if i covered or bet e/w over say 5/1 would have deff showed profit.
And with no real way of betting under 3/1 other than win i would say deff leave alone exspecially if under 2/1.
Ofcourse this all has to start with fancied horses in first place you cant just go by odds but there is no doubt analysing odds after the work done is a must but i would also say looking at odds first is maybe missing out on those double figure odds that are great e/w bets and come along not as often as you think but when they do worth a nibble for sure.
This has lead me to thinking about todays horses and i had four wrote down for today but going by my own findings i would be leaving 2 alone.
The two worth a cover bet would be .
DUTCH KINGDOM 4 25 LINGFIELD.
WONDERWALL 6 05 UTTOXETER.
And i stopped at my last 226 winners and what i found is only 2 of them where double figures both 10/1.
I did have some 9/1 8/1 and so but found out the majority where 5/1 and below.
Dont get me wrong there was alot and i mean alot of losers in between that load of winners.
I now looked at the bets in that time and was about 700 and there was only 17 at 10/1 or above so incredibly would have showed margin profit just having those 17 bets.
The reason i sat and done that is reading some of the forum stories i got to think how important are the odds really to chances.
I thought of cheshams theory that a 6/1 value down the field bet is deff worse than solid 5/4 winner.
Then i thought do i really want value at 5/4 where you can only bet it to win and cant bet cover bets or e/w.
Then i was thinking is it really the first 5 in betting you should only be interested on or actually just nothing over 5/1 as there is no doubting it the bigger the odds the less chance in theory anyway.
I now looked at those 17 bets at 10/1 or over and seen 7 actually placed so betting e/w would have been profitable too.
I now looked at horses between 1/1 and 15/8 so no odds on and no 2/1 or above and had 23 winners out of 65 bets which actually shows slight losses.
I know checked last 200 bets between 3/1 and 5/1 and had 37 winners which showed likely small loss.
Not sure what this gives me as these were my noted down horses and maybe not quiet differant from solid bets.
Like if i cover bet the 3/1 to 5/1 which i usually do i am sure would have showed profit all be it small.
And if i covered or bet e/w over say 5/1 would have deff showed profit.
And with no real way of betting under 3/1 other than win i would say deff leave alone exspecially if under 2/1.
Ofcourse this all has to start with fancied horses in first place you cant just go by odds but there is no doubt analysing odds after the work done is a must but i would also say looking at odds first is maybe missing out on those double figure odds that are great e/w bets and come along not as often as you think but when they do worth a nibble for sure.
This has lead me to thinking about todays horses and i had four wrote down for today but going by my own findings i would be leaving 2 alone.
The two worth a cover bet would be .
DUTCH KINGDOM 4 25 LINGFIELD.
WONDERWALL 6 05 UTTOXETER.
Sigster
Gelding
Interesting read on your thoughts around your prices, strike rates and profits and pleased to see your analysis is retrospective but at the risk of starting up a debate I would suggest that just bunching your numbers arbitrarily really proves nothing unless theres is sound reasoning behind your choice of those numbers. Why 10/1 or above? Why not 9/1? Or 8s? I Can build price parameters into a system and give myself a great chi score and a good strike rate with a couple of other factors built in but the fact is using price as a betting agent works against you using an early price and actually relies on the bookies and other people betting to decide whether your selection is indeed a betting selection. Have you considered analysing by type of race? I would potentially suggest that could give you an insight into your race reading? Handicaps versus non handicaps? Race distances? That kind of thing. Maybe you have an innate ability to read certain kinds of races? Who knows, but it certainly seems like there’s a treasure trove of past betting data to look at!
Certainly not here to piss on anyone’s bonfire as I’ve been away for a while but hoping to be a bit more active and get a bit of debate going. Best of luck going forward though. I know it’s not easy to keep posting up, especially when you hit a losing streak.
Certainly not here to piss on anyone’s bonfire as I’ve been away for a while but hoping to be a bit more active and get a bit of debate going. Best of luck going forward though. I know it’s not easy to keep posting up, especially when you hit a losing streak.
gerry
Mare
Yeah i just looked past and decided to go for double odds to check your right could have been any odds to split it.
But it was more to do with seeing if odds made differance like first 5 in betting of fancied horses.
Dont forget these are all form study results where i have not let price dictate anything thats why i decided check odds.
Ofcourse i have analysed type of races and distances handicaps and none handicap and wrote about all these things on here before.
I like to think my overall form reading is good as done it for 50 years lol.
And i dont need try get scores looking better as i do ok and would say last couple years been pretty good since retired.
What i have found is without doubt the only way to bet on horse racing is less is better but i dont perfectly bet on certain races as i look even if some are glance at every race of every day on uk racing not less its summer racing i now leave jumps mainly only look at them if all thats on in given day and vise versa in winter only jumps.
Instinctive i dont need to wonder what shows best as i know in 2 yold races very little shows up but you can get odd form to follow and mainly time related.
In 3yold similar idea
although obviously alot more than 2yolds but time the main factor to show up anything looks above normal.
Then we go to older horses 4yold and above where i dont like class 6 or 5 and i dont like group or listed mainly although some time you have special time horses in these too.
So mainly leave the handicaps where i would say without doubt i get most winners not to keen on over 1mile and half.
So you have 5 fur to mile and half to go on for most bets, But again sprints can be complicated not all the time but alot of time they can be.
So you now have 7fur to mile and half but again mile and half can have to many not went distance so slightly less in them.
So if i had to stick to 7fur to mile quarter would likely find that the perfect races for me but have no way of checking as i dont log it down.
Maybe for next month i should just check those distance fancies see what profit would be or loss ofcourse as no one can predict future.
Infact i always like a challange of sorts i will open a new thread with only fancies over 7fur to mile quarter with prices 3/1 or above see how it goes.
But it was more to do with seeing if odds made differance like first 5 in betting of fancied horses.
Dont forget these are all form study results where i have not let price dictate anything thats why i decided check odds.
Ofcourse i have analysed type of races and distances handicaps and none handicap and wrote about all these things on here before.
I like to think my overall form reading is good as done it for 50 years lol.
And i dont need try get scores looking better as i do ok and would say last couple years been pretty good since retired.
What i have found is without doubt the only way to bet on horse racing is less is better but i dont perfectly bet on certain races as i look even if some are glance at every race of every day on uk racing not less its summer racing i now leave jumps mainly only look at them if all thats on in given day and vise versa in winter only jumps.
Instinctive i dont need to wonder what shows best as i know in 2 yold races very little shows up but you can get odd form to follow and mainly time related.
In 3yold similar idea
although obviously alot more than 2yolds but time the main factor to show up anything looks above normal.
Then we go to older horses 4yold and above where i dont like class 6 or 5 and i dont like group or listed mainly although some time you have special time horses in these too.
So mainly leave the handicaps where i would say without doubt i get most winners not to keen on over 1mile and half.
So you have 5 fur to mile and half to go on for most bets, But again sprints can be complicated not all the time but alot of time they can be.
So you now have 7fur to mile and half but again mile and half can have to many not went distance so slightly less in them.
So if i had to stick to 7fur to mile quarter would likely find that the perfect races for me but have no way of checking as i dont log it down.
Maybe for next month i should just check those distance fancies see what profit would be or loss ofcourse as no one can predict future.
Infact i always like a challange of sorts i will open a new thread with only fancies over 7fur to mile quarter with prices 3/1 or above see how it goes.
Some interesting analysis and points there Gerry 
I think it's useful to review your betting and results every now and again, just to see how you're getting on and if you need to make a few tweaks. I did it recently and I got a week of good results, rubbish this week so far but the race cards have been naff, looks a lot better today.
I think it's useful to review your betting and results every now and again, just to see how you're getting on and if you need to make a few tweaks. I did it recently and I got a week of good results, rubbish this week so far but the race cards have been naff, looks a lot better today.
gerry
Mare
Well i have to bring this back up as Ambiente Friendly now hopefully got ground and more important the distance to over turn City of Troy today.
This is the day i was waiting on as i thought city of troy took to long to get in to stride in derby and if jockey on ambiente would have kicked earlier the race could have been won but he thought he was on winner two out till he seen troy come on inside and well he was to late to do anything.
I think at the odds betting Ambiente today is no brainer and if anyone looks for value then this is it.
Ofcourse we know at 3yold they can finally have enough racing for season but nothing would put me of having decent bet on it.