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Can singles show profit.

gerry

gerry

Mare
Just going to have look at tomorrows racing and if fancy one put it up.

Two for tomorrow i think could have chance.

ONE TRUE KING 3 05 LUDLOW.
Has been improving nicely and running round here too even had the pace to win one of the races over 2 miles so the better ground should be plus.
Looks like a horse whos just in prime form and this drop in class should be winnable.

WINTERWATCH 8 10 TAUNTON.
Again a horse who has run last three races round here and you would think on flat form this should suit it.
Hopefully better ground will suit and H Fry last three favs all won so hopefully this horse dropping slightly in class should run better and be close.
 
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I must admit i have had a good long think of my betting and since retired and in the house alot more than i am used to there is just so much racing, and other things like football golf darts to bet on i have slowed it right down and you cant go on just must haveing bet on anything on a daily bases.
So what i decided to do is watch more about betting than actually doing it as much and decided to put any money in betfair account and do away with my bookies accounts as you finally relise the cuts there making on the overround.
So every thing i bet even on football its more a bet of whats best here on certain games as there so many options betting or laying goals or draws or all sorts so far so good.
Infact it was this change that made me question my horse racing bets which made it easy or should say easier to just use a more direct approach which rules out most races or horses and then the ones i am left with are ones i found it hard to not dabble with.

I had a look this morning and went through the both bets to see why i left these two in as bets trying to have a fresh day prespective on it.
And what it looks like although i didnt self consciously try to plan this way at start.
Is that both horses are fit for sure, both horses are droping in class from last race, both horses stables are going well at moment, both horses have exsperience on course,
Where they both differ to certain degree is ONE TRUE KING has won over this mark in this discipline and is more consistant.
Where as WINTERWATCH hasnt and isn't.

I am hoping after analysing watching races i get feed back for any of above being reasons to go forward with further selections and hopefully this process is just if not more enjoyable than the actual bets.
 
Well not the start looking for and possibly one was not high enough class race but happens so -2 pts on to tomorrow.

SAINT DAVY 4 20 WARWICK. Was going along nicely till last time in heavy ground and has run poor on soft before so hopefully the better ground gets it back on song. I think track will suit to and hopefully get a lead from jupiter allan.

RAMBO T 3 35 PERTH.
I think if gets back to three runs back at newbury should win this, Next two races was more likely out classed to be fair.
I do exspect big run in this.

SECRET TRIX 4 45 PERTH.
I think decent ground likely suits this horse so hope it is here, Has been differant horse since cheeks on then after acouple seconds went to tounge strap to and got back to winning ways but very consistant.
 
thanks guys.
Now to tomorrows racing i have three i will have a bet on.

LIVELY CITIZEN 1 30 PERTH. This horse since returned hurdling has really started to hit some form and none where near as good as last run at aintree.I think of same mark and 10lb claim this time gives it a big shout if runs to that form.
Can not find much at finish at times but hopefully track helps with that has exsperience here to winning chase and placed over hurdles.

AUCANRISQUE 5 40 CHEPSTOW. This is the easiest race this horse has run in since novice days well one handicap similar it won that easy.
That was couple years ago then this horse started running in alot bigger races winning its fair share so this could be shoe in if anything like its best.
I like they have decided to put cheeks on now droping in class dramatic , so i feel could be sign this is the day lets hope so.
Better the ground the better also as done really great time last year.

DIEGO DU CHARMIL 6 10 CHEPSTOW. I am sure alot of people noticed this one cruising up over three miles in first run for nearly 2 years last month only to stop as if wont say shot as not nice but as if blown up.
So if that put it right should win this, What makes me feel it will is it has never run in a race this bad in its life and i feel there saying lets just get a win into it now.
 
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Well back to -3 after poor day just shows you give them benifit of doubt over runs and they dont reward you but thats part of judgement.
Any way back to tomorrow where i have been left with 4 i will bet.

JONBON 3 00 SANDOWN.
I think jonbon could have edge here with liking sandown, and he has the momentum over fav so should run big race.

NICKLE BACK 4 45 SANDOWN.
Been in great form and now dropping to more relistic class has big chance to get winning again and jumped well round here before big plus to.

RAADOBARG 2 05 LIECESTER.
I think looks ideal race after two good runs and egan back on it after curragh run to.
Has run here to as 3yold to wont have done any harm and surely will run well.

GLORIOUS ANGEL 5 50 RIPON .
Has been running well and likes stiff test has run well here to and hopefully will be tough and run close.
 
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gerry said:
and decided to put any money in betfair account and do away with my bookies accounts as you finally relise the cuts there making on the overround.
Click to expand...

Hi gerry gerry Have a think about just having your Win Single in the 2TP market at BFSP ( Top 2 Finish ). It takes a little getting used to when your horse wins but when you focus on every time you get beaten by a nose it's a great comforter. Over-round is low enough and still beats the bookies by far.
I'm pushing my bets in this direction more often now.
.
 
Well i have been betting nearly all my horses on the cover bet on 365 where your always getting money back if places for couple years now.
But did feel unless was a double digit price they where skimming loads of that to finally.
l had 15 horses i had wrote down today to glide through and get my final selections.
So i am now going to go on betfair and write the price of them at top 2 finish see what would happen today.
Let you know how i do retriever.
 
They still look very short to me but its early in morning yet.
But i am sure my singles will turn round profit long term on here exspecially if get the right price at the right time helps but if can do it at sp then your on a winner.
 
I don't know where you can get the 2TP BFSP price from ( or 4TP price ) after the event. I sometimes have to place the minimum £1 bet the horses or race to gauge whether the 'value' is there at BFSP.

Yes, still early yet and I would normally want the book percentage to be below 102%. If you can record the BFSP's on the Exchange by race you'll get a better idea for the long-term profitably ( if any ).
.
 
Well we dont have great racing tomorrow but there is 2 i will be having bet on.

MAINLA SCOUSE 4 05 WETHERBY.
This horse run well first time out last season, Then seemed to run in better and better races as went on finishing season of running close in few good races.
But this is likely a decent chance been given as not as good class as has been improving into.

MAHARAJAS EXSPRESS 2 20 BATH.
It would be easy to think that inflated race last time worth alot for class 5 was not that good and the second is in here to connie rose and you could argue with that ones first run and record round here and better at weights will reverse form.
But maharajan looks differant horse now fitted with blinkers, and i could have just left race alone but i bet the third in that race today and it won even being big drifter buraback.
There could be little forecast here then but i will stick to singles on my choice.
 
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Well two placed horses drops me to -2 pts again both run well and all you can hope for really.
Back to tomorrow i am not sure what odds these will start at yet but here they are.

FIVER FRIDAY 3 15 AYR.
I think this horse will appreciate slightly better ground, and has run round here before should help.
Looks its easiest task for while and couple runs to put it spot on now.

SAFARI DREAM 8 09 WINDSOR.
This is a other horse who has had couple runs to get it spot on, Best ever run was round here winning and dropped to a very winnable mark.
Good draw and think will be well up with pace all the way, Maybe hoping ground isnt to soft.
 
Well one winner today puts me on the +1 side so hopefully grow .
Have four i am still looking at tomorrow but looks like i have doubts about them all for one reason or other and likely be blank day here.
 
I have decided to put my four up mainly because the ground changing slightly at the tracks and hopefully one will stot in.

MOBASHR 4 25 YARMOUTH.
This horse run down the park on all weather first couple runs last year to.
But it took it couple runs on grass to to finally get in gear so thats a worry also.
They seemed to stick to mainly 7 fur to after that so there reasons to think is this other run to get fit.
The reason i have finally decided to back it is tom marquand has only been on it once and that was over mile and won so i feel its got enough possibles to go win this.

WISPER 4 10 BRIGHTON.
This horse won this last year and has great record here and the ground drying out has swayed me to take chance.
Won last two season debutes so why would you not have go first time out again.
The trainer not had much runs so far and looks like slow start so far 2 runners.
D Costello got good record on this horse three runs at brighten three wins.
OK its mark slightly higher but run really well at sandown of even higher mark must have chance.

DREAM DEAL 6 55 CATTERICK.
This horse seems to have thrived since put cheeks and tounge strap on, Interesting they have decided to run on tounge strap on for first time.
The stable not that great and would put alot off and the class of race really low for what i am looking for.
But i just feel if the tounge strap works again and dropped to 5 fur round here which would not be ideal but maybe being fresh will be ok worth chance.

MUSIC SOCIETY 8 25 CATTERICK.
Never out of first three round here so track clearly suits, And stable going well infact jockey on it had winner round here lately.
I think getting on a bit but surely this track would be where they would have go , And dropping to class 5 for first time where the draw gave it no chance anyway but draw ok today and if stipping fitter could go close today.
 
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Looks i was right to have doubts about all todays and just need to try make those doubts strong and leave well alone as every losser counts as much as every winner.
But i do feel my temprement is alot stronger for the up coming summer flat racing.
Patience patience patience is the order for the day, easier said than done for action but only way now sitting -3 pts again.
 
After analysing my horses for tomorrow again had four but going for the one finally.

WOOLHAMPTON 3 25 ASCOT.
This horse likes it here and had the cob webs blow of last time. Noted as eyecatcher and they now applying blinkers again.
Stable going well and i think should win this.
 
I have decided to add one more in for today and e/w seems best way to go.

ISLE OF LISMORE 4 00 ASCOT.
I just found it to hard to leave this horse out so its e/w bet, This horse is very consistant and can forgive when down the park last time it ran here as race was just to good for it and ran respectably.
But its last run was good time and that was markedly improvement from first run this year and stable going really well.
It does seem to like newmarket to be fair and wish this race was there but having one on heavy before just gives me believe this horse will run in slower ground although last time obviously proved little better ground suits.
Jockey had good day yesterday and lets hope hes in same frame of mind on this one to go close.
 
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