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Can singles show profit.

Apollo One is one of my two dozen to follow horses and so far he is taking the same path as last year.

Last year the field for the early May Newmarket race had an average OR of 94.1, and the 2023 equivalent of today's race 90.3. This year the Newmarket field was, on the average OR basis, a touch stronger at 95.1, and today's is also 95.1.

On my ratings AO ran a lot better on 04/05/24 than he did in either of his first two races this year. But he will need to show considerable improvement on that to win today. Indeed he will have to improve significantly over his best ever run on my figures, when second on 05/08/23.

My chart for him is attached and the improvement he needs is feasible for a 6yo. Hopefully he will come on for his Newmarket run but whether by enough we'll have to wait and see. Quite likely to win, but far from being nailed on. Personally I don't see the current 7/2 as offering value.
 

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Hi gerry gerry

One of the Trail Races that sometimes throws up a winner of this race

York, 6f Handicap (Class 2, Mid May)​


Mr Wagyu has won this race off a higher OR , following the same Trail Race, the ground may have gone against this one and although winning on this going has performed better on better ground


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Three in todays Race, arrive from the York

Nice race to watch, but not a betting race for me . Good Luck with your bet
 
Well looked like the races went as exspected today my derby horse second to fav think ground likely never got fast enough although never seen race as at golf all day says winner won easy.
Then a winner and a third on my two other bets with mr wagna run ning well to.But nothing went right for me as i had bet ambiente to win only for last month and the two today i bet a double with cover bets but only for both to be at least second so goosed there to.
But all not lost quiet yet as had a yankee with two winwers up so far plus point and persica so come on other two legs pearle dor and emperor caradoc.
 
My take on horse racing is softer ground dosnt really make a massive differance to the form on any given day, They either run on it on the day or get bogged down .
Where as faster ground deffinatly makes massive differance on speed and times.
Thats why runners as in athletes run on tracks and not fields makes sense of course if they did run on mud fields i can be assured the results would be all over place just like we get in racing.
 
My take on my horse in the dreby finishing second is the time of the race makes it ground was far to slow.
Although winner won easy you only need look at the times the day before on friday that the ground was very soft at epsom.
So although i think dried a little for saturday was still on the soft side although the winner is breed to run on the fast dirt to and should not mind fast on grass either will be interesting if they meet on faster ground it could be they are two very good horses.
 
Back to today there only one race that has made me take serious notice and it is the 4 25 nottingham.
There is two horses in this who are dropping to lower class than there used to cruyff turn and brunch.
These two horses fought out a top race at york 2 years ago with cruyff just holding on but brunch was impeded and fancied more.
Cruff was getting 7lb now getting 8lb so i would say that fair.
they have tried cheeks on cruyff last four races and again today which looks wierd as not really made a differance but big drop in class here.
cruyff usually needs couple runs to get right where as brunch dosnt tend to run well fresh and stable absolutely flying.
On form nothing between them and i have feeling one of these two will deliver today might even nibble pennies on f/cast.
 
Well it looks like this has turned into a brilliant place thread lol as knocking on door every day but there is a big sticker on the door saying be back shortly so i just finally relized if its still up means there know one in.
Any way that was just little reminder to myself that some one always finally answers door so keep knocking and be patient as they might come back shortly.
 
I dont think there is anysimple way to pick horses so i am going to addslight things to my selections which might reduce even more but make them more selective see if makes differance to winning or slightly lossing which i would say i have done since start of year but thats good on this ground so far.
 
Well looking at todays there is only two horses who pass all my little things.

DESERT QUEST 2 45 AYR
This horse will like the better ground for sure some time slow away but over this distance can not be a bad thing covered up.
Nice jockey booking and could be time for a win for this horse cant really see any reason why not and is ee it ahs been shortened from the 11/4 i got last night always good sign .

GREY FOX 8 45 WINDSOR.
Hopefully the ground came right for this one faster ground, Won this race 2 years ago and of exsact same mark.
Won really well last time and this is easier loves the track and i feel will take a bit of beating int his.
 
Well although a other one beat on line again i am not to dissheartened just yet as i took a leaf out my own reading of it being brilliant place thread lol.
So although i did bet both to win singles i did put a more than decent size bet on place double on these two desert quest 3 places and grey fox 5 places getting 1/1 money so lets hope my place judgement at least goes in.
 
rbtblb82 said:
For me, singles are often the difference between being up or down for the day. I play doubles, trixies and other acca's and quite often hit 2/3/4 nice wins a day, but I don't always have singles on them, when I do I'm up, when I don't I'm often down.
Click to expand...
I personally like singles and doubles the most. I bet with a lot of money so if I can double my stake I am happy!
 
Welll grey fox really let me down so a poor day all round yesterday.

There is one horse tomorrow deff wont make you rich but i cant see getting beat at all.
WHERES CLAIRE ran a cracker in good race at carlisle just getting touched of with horse with more exsperience and thirs the fav also more exsperience , well wheres claire had none infact.
Decent time for 2yo race and you would wonder why going to allweather meeting but should surely win this and would be not surprised if odds on at off 11/8 looks good value to me.
 
Good luck Gerry. I've gone for Colocolo - Benoit De La Sayette & Kevin De Foy @ 16/1 (Wolves 17:30) - plus doubled with Mr Wonderful @ 11/2 (Kevin De Foy & David Egan - Lingfield 19:45).

I've also had a punt on Silvestre De Sousa in the 17:30 @ Wolves - Angel At Midnight @ 50/1 - it would be rude not to back De Sousa on a 50/1 in a 2yro Maiden Stakes, favourites do come in quite often, but if not, big odds winners are possible.
 
Your right rb there always a chance of a shock in any race but it will be for me if this one gets beat.
 
Good call Gerry, won easily, mine were useless, right out the back but that's the risk with outsiders, never mind for me, well done to you.
 
Cheers rb not often i would say 11/8 is great value but shows it can be, i could not see this getting beat today.
 
I have decided to go for two horses tomorrow that i think have a chance.

GARDEN OASIS 7 25 RIPON.
I think this horse will be primed for thisas has had two runs and win on third run three times.
But more than that i mentioned on here before easterby does tend to have ago when couple of rises in rpr last couple starts.
Horse loves it round here in general although getting on abit its win at ayr last year of 85 gived it leading chance also.
And i noticed it won the first time they put blinkers on it and it won the last time they put blinkers on it which was about 18 races ago wierd i know.

ABATE 7 55 RIPON
This horse best ever run was likely round here when just touched of with mark 84 but has won of 82 so todays 83 is perfectly feasable.
There is bits of form you could argue about with this one but if rain stays away and ground faster has chance.

Infact i would strongly suggest if rain comes and ground not at least good going you can likely forget them both.
I would have waited myself to put them up but at golf so might forget.
 
Not much going on tomorrow but there is one i think should run decent race.

THUNDERSTAR 3 35 HAYDOCK.
I really like this horse last run 4th behind isle of lismore who then came out and run a good second in better race next time.
And second in that same race was horse who came out and won a even better race again fair wind beating none other than dream composer and we seen what that done on saturday, so this might be more of a drop than first looks and also has won round here to, and stable not doing to bad so all and all should run decent race.
 
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