Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[tony spencer]

1.Mini Mac 2.Ardaddy 3. Little Miss Annie

 

[ARAZI91]

Mike , do you know what happened at Musselburgh 7f 33yds 2023 vs 7f 15yds in 2024? Did they move the distance?

T tony spencer
Tony, during the 2023 Flat season the ground-staff at Musselburgh found that it would be beneficial to slightly move the start forward to get closer to a truer 7fur distance and it would allow the track to be more efficient in producing fresh ground. Basically they found out during that season that most of the time they were moving the rail back "in" so decreasing the distance anyway so they implemented a slight movement forward with the starting position and they also realigned the bottom bend in the winter of 2023 as well. This has had the effect of reducing the overall distance at least "closer" to a truer 7f and provides much more options in producing fresh ground.

You can see the overall effect of all ~ 7f races at the course since 2021 in the table in the link below - they basically work within a +/- 10 yard tolerance at this distance so rail moves have ranged from -10yds to + 10yds. And you can see how the change happened in 2023. Since then the majority have been "inwards" (negative/minus rail move) decreasing the overall distance. Also notice that occurrences of a rail move within a race has also increased.
Am told they are limited with any more plans to bring the 7f start forward again due to slightly uneven ground.

Dropbox

 

[tony spencer]

T tony spencer
Tony, during the 2023 Flat season the ground-staff at Musselburgh found that it would be beneficial to slightly move the start forward to get closer to a truer 7fur distance and it would allow the track to be more efficient in producing fresh ground. Basically they found out during that season that most of the time they were moving the rail back "in" so decreasing the distance anyway so they implemented a slight movement forward with the starting position and they also realigned the bottom bend in the winter of 2023 as well. This has had the effect of reducing the overall distance at least "closer" to a truer 7f and provides much more options in producing fresh ground.

You can see the overall effect of all ~ 7f races at the course since 2021 in the table in the link below - they basically work within a +/- 10 yard tolerance at this distance so rail moves have ranged from -10yds to + 10yds. And you can see how the change happened in 2023. Since then the majority have been "inwards" (negative/minus rail move) decreasing the overall distance. Also notice that occurrences of a rail move within a race has also increased.
Am told they are limited with any more plans to bring the 7f start forward again due to slightly uneven ground.

Dropbox

Thanks Rob

 

[markfinn]

Well done winners

T tony spencer Cashelman Chesham andcof course Michael231 who is on a great run. Also T tacker who highlighted Mini Mac’s chances but also the poor price ,the market was strange with the fav price leaving plenty of value ? In the place etc markets .

Tonight

19:15 Newcastle

Friday 30 October 2026

Why -,not to big a field - late race give all a chance to participate - aw ground reports should be Trustworthy - not my fav course but it’s part of the mix - 4yrlds so form exposed

 

[mlmrob]

There isn't much in this and Massimo Blue is the only horse in the race that run to his best Timeform rating last time. That made him 3-5 for Dylan Cunha and he runs here under a penalty in this 0-70. He will be out of this grade next time.
Dylan Cunha is 8-44 at Newcastle when his horse goes off in the first 4 of the bvetting and that improves to 6-28 when just having one runner at Gosforth Park. In the last 12 months he has sent one runner 8 times and three have won.

 

[MySportsAI]

WoM consensus says Great

Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,GREAT,"['3.0', '2.0', '2.0', '1.0', '2.0']",10.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,MASSIMO BLUE,"['9.0', '1.0', '1.0', '2.0', '1.0']",14.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,HECTIC,"['5.0', '4.0', '8.0', '5.0', '3.0']",25.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,TIRIAC,"['4.0', '5.0', '3.0', '8.0', '8.0']",28.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,INVINCIBLE RUBY,"['1.0', '3.0', '11.0', '10.0', '6.0']",31.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,BRIGHT,"['10.0', '7.0', '6.0', '4.0', '4.0']",31.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,THE GREEN MAN,"['8.0', '6.0', '7.0', '3.0', '9.0']",33.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,PAL JOEY,"['2.0', '10.0', '5.0', '6.0', '11.0']",34.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,ROARING RALPH,"['6.5', '9.0', '4.0', '7.0', '13.0']",39.5
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,SUGAR BABY,"['6.5', '8.0', '10.0', '9.0', '7.0']",40.5
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,FORTAMOUR,"['13.0', '11.0', '12.0', '11.0', '5.0']",52.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,WINTER CROWN,"['11.0', '12.0', '9.0', '12.0', '12.0']",56.0
Newcastle_19:15_2026-10-30,BELLAGIO MAN,"['12.0', '13.0', '13.0', '13.0', '10.0']",61.0

 

[Jackform]

Newcastle (Standard) Mkt odds from 10.50am.
1. Massimo Blue 10 6/5 MY Tissue (5/2 mkt)
10. Tiriac 5 7/2 (9/2)
4. Great 4 9/1 (11/2)
Comment: I rate those with recent track form places leaving no's 1, 10, 4 to consider, so for me it's Massimo Blue with dangers Tiriac then Great.
At The Races verdict in comparison.
MASSIMO BLUE arrives here at the top of his game after an easy three-length win at Southwell last week. Upped 7lb by the handicapper, his penalty leaves him 2lb well in and he looks the likeliest winner for the in-form Dylan Cunha yard. Bellagio Man has won five times over C&D and he could have a say, alongside Roaring Ralph and Great.
Top Tip: Massimo Blue (1)
Watch out for: Bellagio Man (12)
Expert View Verdict
MASSIMO BLUE returned to winning ways in emphatic fashion when scoring by three and a quarter lengths at Southwell last time off a 5lb lower mark. He is thriving at present and should go well again despite another rise in the weights. Great won by three-quarters of a length at Pontefract in August and was better than the bare result when fifth, beaten a length and a half last time. He remains on the same mark and has a chance if building on those recent efforts. Roaring Ralph returned to form when beaten just a length here last time off the same mark. He remains very competitively handicapped and has a chance of getting involved again if building on that latest effort.
1-2-3 Selections
Massimo Blue (1)Great (4)Roaring Ralph (3)

 

[markfinn]

Hello Jackform hope you are well

 

[Ajit]

Massimo Blue for me. Can't generate a table at the moment because I'm working on part of it.

 

[FHRTIPS]

Pequenita

 

[StefanBelo]

Just for fun I made a small tool for my app to check your tips. Well, it is really time consuming to add your tips, MySportsAI you either misspelled the horse names or they have already been removed from the races; I think there were two horses I could not find.

 

[Ajit]

Just for fun I made a small tool for my app to check your tips. Well, it is really time consuming to add your tips, MySportsAI you either misspelled the horse names or they have already been removed from the races; I think there were two horses I could not find.

It's probably possible to scrape them each day if we agreed on a standardised format but it's far from straightforward (needs headless) and would need site owner permission

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done to the winners yesterday

 

[Cashelman]

Massimo Blue for me

 

[TheBluesBrother]

16:15 Newcastle.

Great

A simple Combined Ranking can be created by averaging:

• Best MR Rank (higher Best MR = better)
• Handicap Edge Rank (higher Handicap Edge = better)

Horse	Full Flat MR List	Best MR​	Avg Best 2 MR​	OR​	Handicap Edge​	Combined Rank​
Great	47,53,29,36,33,58	58​	55.5​	67​	+8​	1​
Tiriac	41,44,41,38,55,46	55​	50.5​	64​	+8​	2​
Bright	31,16,47,56,38,18	56​	51.5​	67​	+6​	3​
Hectic	53,39,41,28,52,40	53​	52.5​	65​	+5​	4​
Bellagio Man	16,15,24,30,21,50	50​	40.0​	58​	+9​	5​
The Green Man	39,24,52,23,44,46	52​	49.0​	67​	+2​	6​
Massimo Blue	53,42,46,56,47,41	56​	54.5​	75​	-2​	7​
Sugar Baby	11,21,25,43,19,50	50​	46.5​	65​	+2​	8​
Roaring Ralph	49,36,0,33,46,5	49​	47.5​	68​	-2​	9​
Invincible Ruby	32,14,48,41,46,33	48​	47.0​	67​	-2​	10​
Winter Crown	27,0,28,32,23,31	32​	31.5​	57​	-8​	11​

Top 5 Combined Rankings

1. Great
2. Tiriac
3. Bright
4. Hectic
5. Bellagio Man

Top 5 Avg Best 2 MR

1. Great (55.5)
2. Massimo Blue (54.5)
3. Hectic (52.5)
4. Bright (51.5)
5. Tiriac (50.5)

This highlights an interesting split: Great is the standout on both measures, while Massimo Blue has elite MR figures but is held back by a much higher OR.

 

[Jackform]

Hi markfinn, well thank you for asking about my health, it's most kind. I'm not bad except for the aches and pains due to my age. The NHS 'bless em' said we should transfer you to a care home but we are not telling you what to do! My reply was I know you're not because I won't do it as I am the main carer at home for my wife. Having been married for 69 years now I might as well see it through to the end. Anyway, who wnts to pat balloons in the common room?

 

[markfinn]

Hi markfinn, well thank you for asking about my health, it's most kind. I'm not bad except for the aches and pains due to my age. The NHS 'bless em' said we should transfer you to a care home but we are not telling you what to do! My reply was I know you're not because I won't do it as I am the main carer at home for my wife. Having been married for 69 years now I might as well see it through to the end. Anyway, who wnts to pat balloons in the common room?

All the best wishes - lets hope we have a mild winter and quick return to brighter days

 

[markfinn]

Possible Stayers in class - (class ceiling 70): The Green Man (71), Roaring Ralph (73) and Bright (72) would all go over the ceiling with a win penalty Great, Invincible Ruby (72) and Massimo Blue (80) are 4yos who could be progressing

Top of the ratings - Bellagio Man Ref win: 21 Oct 25 Newcastle 6f Cl5, OR 62, 9-6 (Hardie up). C and D: won at both (4 Newcastle 6f wins). 8yo = OR-management lens; OR 86 (2023) down to 58. Last 4 runs beaten 8.5L, 9.3L, 5L, 9.5L. Ref OR 62 = Class 6 band — today Class 5 = rise. Brittain 14d 1/8, last win 3d; Hardie 14d 4/24, last win 3d. Prize: last 3 £4k/£3k/£4k — no value drop. Seasonality AW Oct 8yo: Negative.

Herectic Ref win: 4 Jun 25 Ripon 6f turf Cl5, OR 72, 9-6 (B Garritty up). C: 2 Newcastle runs, no win (C?). D: won at 6f. Surface flag: ref win turf; AW 1 win from 10 (Southwell). Career win SR 8% — low against the Score. Ref OR 72 = Class 5, no class drop. Bailey 14d 0/8 (2 places), last win 30d; B Garritty 14d 1/18. Prize: last 3 £3k/£4k/£5k — no value drop. Seasonality AW Oct 6yo: Negative.

Horse	Age	Score
Bellagio Man (IRE)	8	80
Great	4	77.5
Hectic	6	77.5
Sugar Baby	8	75
Invincible Ruby (IRE)	4	72.5
Tiriac	6	70
Winter Crown	6	70
Massimo Blue	4	67.5
The Green Man (IRE)	7	45
Roaring Ralph	6	40
Bright (IRE)	6	40

 

[Michael231]

Just noticed it is a balanced race so should go to a Bowers pick
Well done yesterday's WINNERS pity about the price though
My two for the race are: Hectic and Massimo Blue
any n/r's add Bright
19:15 Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Newcastle • Flat • 6f • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 5

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 5 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
Tiriac	9/2	draw 5/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · SP↓ vs last run	ELIMINATED
Bright	7/2	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · SP↓ vs last run	CONTENDER
Hectic	10/1 odds≥runners	draw 5/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner	ELIMINATED
The Green Man	8/1	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner	ELIMINATED
Sugar Baby	16/1 odds≥runners	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner	ELIMINATED

PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 122–140lbs (18lbs spread) • Midpoint: 131.0lbs • Median weight (132lbs) is 1.0lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 67 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Newcastle: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • Sprint distance — draw at full effect
Left-handed AW Tapeta. Low draws favoured consistently.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Moderate pace expected

Front Runner

None

Prominent

Roaring Ralph
50% FR • Stall 5

Versatile

Bright
24% FR • Stall 10
Hectic
0% FR • Stall 3

Hold-Up

Massimo Blue
33% FR • Stall 9
Great
25% FR • Stall 13
Tiriac
0% FR • Stall 2
The Green Man
0% FR • Stall 6
Sugar Baby
25% FR • Stall 11

1 prominent racer(s) likely to set a workable gallop without it turning into a speed battle.
Watch: Massimo Blue (Stall 9), Great (Stall 13)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Massimo Blue Dylan Cunha / Edward Greatrex	9	75 ✓	2/1 SP 3.0 card: 11/8	140	11	#1	Hold-Up 33% FR / 67% HU 3/10 3 runs	1/5 Stall 9	Drifting badly 2.4→2/1 won last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner Won last run RPR 82 vs OR 75 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR 4pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ | TS 77 — at/above career best 🏛 BHA +7 this week (raised significantly) RaceIQ FSP 102% last run (Southwell) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating +0 (as expected) 11 days — ideal freshness +4.38	0% Poor	10.13	TOP PICK D
5✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
2	Great S England / Shane Gray	13	67 ✓	4/1 SP 5.0 card: 6/1	132	18	#3	Hold-Up 25% FR / 50% HU 4/10 4 runs	1/5 Stall 13	Strongly backed 7.0→4/1 Distance winner | Beaten fav RPR 83 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp RaceIQ FSP 93% last run (Beverley) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -11pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +2 (as expected) IV 2.26 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓ +3.73	0% Poor	9.29	CONTENDER D bf
3✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
3	Bright D M Loughnane / Jason Hart	10	67 ✓	7/2 SP 4.5 card: 12/1	132	29	#2	Versatile 24% FR / 41% HU 4/10 17 runs	1/5 Stall 10	Strongly backed 13.0→7/2 SP shorter than last run (9.5→4.5) ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 77 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -7pts RaceIQ FSP 108% last run (Doncaster) — finished well above par | RaceIQ FSP trending up +10pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -5 (below expectations ) Trainer 20% at Newcastle (4/20) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | sprint trips +3.5	0% Poor	9.07	CONTENDER CD
3✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
4	Hectic v L Bailey / Billy Garritty	3	65	10/1 SP 11.0 card: 10/1	130	10	#6	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 4/10 4 runs	5/5 Stall 3	Steady at 10/1 SP longer than last run (6.5→11.0) Distance winner RPR 75 vs OR 65 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +6pts last 3 runs ⏱ Stopwatch: last run +3.0lb vs field average ✓ 🏛 BHA -2 this week RaceIQ FSP 102% last run (Southwell) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating -7 (below expectations ) Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 10 days — ideal freshness +2.88	0% Poor	8.86	ELIMINATED D
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
5	Roaring Ralph p M Dods / Rhys Elliott	5	68 ✓	16/1 SP 17.0 card: 13/2	133	18	#4	Prominent 50% FR / 33% HU 7/10 6 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	Drifting badly 7.5→16/1 SP shorter than last run (51.0→17.0) ✓ | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ 3rd last run RPR 77 vs OR 68 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR declining -7pts RaceIQ FSP 105% last run (Southwell) — solid finishing pace ✓ | RaceIQ FSP trending up +6pts over last 2 runs Master Rating -3 (below expectations ) 5lb claim +2.51	0% Poor	8.6	WATCH
2✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
6	Tiriac p P T Midgley / O McSweeney	2	64	9/2 SP 5.5 card: 16/1	129	17	#7	Hold-Up 0% FR / 60% HU 2/10 5 runs	5/5 Stall 2	Strongly backed 17.0→9/2 SP shorter than last run (17.0→5.5) ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 77 vs OR 64 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -9pts RaceIQ FSP 93% last run (Beverley) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -6pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -7 (below expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | sprint trips +2.64	0% Poor	7.91	ELIMINATED D C
5✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
7	The Green Man t v P A Kirby / K Stott	6	67 ✓	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 12/1	132	18	#5	Hold-Up 0% FR / 67% HU 2/10 3 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	Strongly backed 13.0→8/1 Course winner | Distance winner RPR 83 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -13pts Master Rating +0 (as expected) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | sprint trips +2.21	0% Poor	7.32	ELIMINATED CD
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
8	Sugar Baby P D Niven / P Mulrennan	11	65	16/1 SP 17.0 card: 25/1	130	14	#8	Hold-Up 25% FR / 50% HU 3/10 4 runs	1/5 Stall 11	Strongly backed 26.0→16/1 SP longer than last run (8.0→17.0) Course winner | Distance winner RPR 76 vs OR 65 — well ahead of hcp RaceIQ FSP 103% last run (Redcar) — solid finishing pace ✓ | RaceIQ FSP trending up +7pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -11 (well below handicapper expectations ) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | sprint trips +2.75	0% Poor	7.0	ELIMINATED D C
3✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
9	Invincible Ruby I Jardine / A Mullen	1	67 ✓	20/1 SP 21.0 card: 14/1	132	13	#9	Front Runner 60% FR / 40% HU 7/10 5 runs	5/5 Stall 1	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
5✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
10	Bellagio Man b A Brittain / Cam Hardie	4	58	33/1 SP 34.0 card: 33/1	123	18	#9	Versatile 33% FR / 0% HU 7/10 3 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT CD
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
11	Winter Crown p L Bailey / C Horgan	12	57	22/1 SP 23.0 card: 25/1	122	3	#9	Hold-Up 33% FR / 67% HU 5/10 3 runs	1/5 Stall 12	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT CD
2✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?

 

[Horseplayer]

Top on recent figs is Roaring Ralph from a race that 3 others contested. Be no surprise to see some reversals of placings.

Got to go back a few runs to get TIRIAC's figs but they are more than competitive here. His next 2 higher OR runs have been successes on the surface. Over the last year on the AW he also has 3 of the top 10 average stride lengths and 3 of the top 4 top speeds being the only one here to break 43. The 6f shouldn't be a problem but he may need to reverse his last 2 tardy starts.