Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
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Strike and Starshiba
DuckandDive
Mare
Based on overnight prices, (although in-line with my tissue), hardly any EV in the race apart from further down the ratings, so no actual bet in the race for me.
Preference for the enigmatic Starshiba 3/1+ with "Oisin the Machine" in the saddle. Last year, I remember it used to drift, significantly, and lose, so the market will be the guide I reckon.
Preference for the enigmatic Starshiba 3/1+ with "Oisin the Machine" in the saddle. Last year, I remember it used to drift, significantly, and lose, so the market will be the guide I reckon.
pete
Sire
Cant see much past the front end of the market : Thapa VC
Starishiba should be bang there and would be my second choice. Very well handicapped right now and running well with top jockey.
Jockey on Sandy is a no for me, Strike, never won on AW, Follow, been a while since shown anything, could bounce back, but no indications yet. Epsom I did like, but paddy bradley gone elsewhere to ride a few outsiders instead.
Ive not had a bet as no value there for me.
Starishiba should be bang there and would be my second choice. Very well handicapped right now and running well with top jockey.
Jockey on Sandy is a no for me, Strike, never won on AW, Follow, been a while since shown anything, could bounce back, but no indications yet. Epsom I did like, but paddy bradley gone elsewhere to ride a few outsiders instead.
Ive not had a bet as no value there for me.
A positive way to make the forum more inclusive but unfortunately i find this to be the kind of race where it's impossible to offer a selection, put bluntly they beat each other as is demonstrated by clicking "formscan", though STRIKE hasn't yet met any of the others.
www.attheraces.com
With races like this i suppose you want to look for horses that can be deemed as being in form via a solid recent run or some kind of hidden form which brings a horse like SANDY PARADISE who's slowly getting down to a mark that allows him to creep into cl5 race but like i say this isn't a betting race for me.
19:15 | Kempton | Monday 14th October 2024 | At The Races
19:15 | Kempton | Monday 14th October 2024 | Unibet More Boosts In More Races Handicap
www.attheraces.com
With races like this i suppose you want to look for horses that can be deemed as being in form via a solid recent run or some kind of hidden form which brings a horse like SANDY PARADISE who's slowly getting down to a mark that allows him to creep into cl5 race but like i say this isn't a betting race for me.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Agreed.
footstepsinthesand
Colt
Thapa VC and Starshiba look to have obvious chances here but it is not a race I like although I would not be surprised to see an improved run from FOLLOW YOUR HEART who tends to show his best form between October to December with form figures of 247214- 7222- 2312 he is currently 6lb below his last winning mark so looks to have a fair Each Way chance at the current 8-1
gerry
Mare
Not a race i will be having a bet in but the one that has a big chance if hits form is follow your heart the only thing that worried me is i think it just might be slightly better horse at wolverhampton and got beat by thapa vc there getting 2lb now at level at kempton might just have a little bit to find. Also being out of form it seems to me to find its form again at wolverhampton first but could be i am picking at tiny straws, but money coming for it and i am sure thats because most see what we see.
Michael231
Gelding
This is a harder race than it looks. I had 5 that had a good chance and have whittled it down to 2.
Strike who is ticking along nicely who I expect will come very late if it can get this.
The other is one that is not on anyone's radar as yet which is Vince lombardi. The main reasons being that it has been backed the last few races so someone is or was expecting a good run, also for some reason they have been running it left handed although it looks to me as though right handed is preferred, which it has now and they have a good sp for it now.
The others that I thought had a good chance were :Thapa vc which has top speed rating and will prob win now, Strike which I think has too much weight and Follow your heart who likes it here down another pound in weight and has been running better than the positions it has finished..
So for me two against the field.
Strike 9s and Vince lombardi 12s
I don't usually do write ups, but they are my thoughts on it, as I know you like to see reasons behind the picks.
Good luck with yours
Strike who is ticking along nicely who I expect will come very late if it can get this.
The other is one that is not on anyone's radar as yet which is Vince lombardi. The main reasons being that it has been backed the last few races so someone is or was expecting a good run, also for some reason they have been running it left handed although it looks to me as though right handed is preferred, which it has now and they have a good sp for it now.
The others that I thought had a good chance were :Thapa vc which has top speed rating and will prob win now, Strike which I think has too much weight and Follow your heart who likes it here down another pound in weight and has been running better than the positions it has finished..
So for me two against the field.
Strike 9s and Vince lombardi 12s
I don't usually do write ups, but they are my thoughts on it, as I know you like to see reasons behind the picks.
Good luck with yours
mlmrob
Sire
Follow Your Heart started 2024 off a mark of 87 and has a 2.5l fifth carrying 9-11 in a 0-85 and a 3l fourth off 86 carrying 9-7 in a 0-90 on his CV.
In his last race in the spring on the synththetics he was rated 85 and was put away. He reappeared on turf in July off a mark of 74 largely down to being 1-12 on the grass.
Connections have given him a couple of spins round Kempton in 0-85s where he wasn't off. That got him another 3lbs and he drops into 0-75 tonight off 76.
Follow You Heart's record on the synthetics off marks of 82 or less reads 5-21 with a further 6 places. There is a window when he appears to race at his best which is 18 days to 38 days off the track. That improves his record to 5-13 with a further three places.
There is a caveat that makes him possibly not a win bet but a place bet as all his wins, seven, have come when he had a top five finish last time. Under his best conditions, he finished in the first three before every win.
Thapa VC is 11-32 off marks of 74 or less. He is 0-15 off marks of 75+ Yes he has finished second in two of his last three but I think improvement is needed to defy 76.
In his last race in the spring on the synththetics he was rated 85 and was put away. He reappeared on turf in July off a mark of 74 largely down to being 1-12 on the grass.
Connections have given him a couple of spins round Kempton in 0-85s where he wasn't off. That got him another 3lbs and he drops into 0-75 tonight off 76.
Follow You Heart's record on the synthetics off marks of 82 or less reads 5-21 with a further 6 places. There is a window when he appears to race at his best which is 18 days to 38 days off the track. That improves his record to 5-13 with a further three places.
There is a caveat that makes him possibly not a win bet but a place bet as all his wins, seven, have come when he had a top five finish last time. Under his best conditions, he finished in the first three before every win.
Thapa VC is 11-32 off marks of 74 or less. He is 0-15 off marks of 75+ Yes he has finished second in two of his last three but I think improvement is needed to defy 76.
retriever
Stallion
I have Dynamic Talent as one of my horse profile bets that I backed yesterday for this race but for the purposes of this thread I'm going with ( and backing ) two others in this race.
Oddly enough, from reading all the above, they haven't been mentioned, so we pretty much have the field covered between us. I cannot make heads or tails of the front of the market......top 5 or 6.....so I've taken the approach of looking for 'hidden form' as T tacker mentions above.
The two I'm with are Clipsham La Habana and Epsom Faithfull. There are just as many negatives as positives with these two so I won't bother listing things that you can see for yourselves. But from a price point of view ( on the exchange ) they are worth chancing as they have.....form at the Track, on the Going ( Standard to Slow ), at a higher Class and appear handily weighed. In the long run you'll win backing these types.
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Oddly enough, from reading all the above, they haven't been mentioned, so we pretty much have the field covered between us. I cannot make heads or tails of the front of the market......top 5 or 6.....so I've taken the approach of looking for 'hidden form' as T tacker mentions above.
The two I'm with are Clipsham La Habana and Epsom Faithfull. There are just as many negatives as positives with these two so I won't bother listing things that you can see for yourselves. But from a price point of view ( on the exchange ) they are worth chancing as they have.....form at the Track, on the Going ( Standard to Slow ), at a higher Class and appear handily weighed. In the long run you'll win backing these types.
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