Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Back in 2017, when the BHA measured the race distances at Musselburgh, the 7-furlong distance was 7f33yds.
On March 30th 2024, at the beginning of the season, it became 7f15yds.
Mike.
Michael231
Gelding
My two for the race are: Coulsty Exchange and Mini Mac
18:30 AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap (Div 2) Southwell • Flat • 7f 15y • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 6
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 5 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning
PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 126–135lbs (9lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (131lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 51 (OR ✓ = at/above median)
🏟 Southwell: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Left-handed AW Fibresand. Low draws (rail) consistently favoured — early speed at low stalls very important.
Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected
Front Runner
Coulsty Exchange
60% FR • Stall 2
Ardaddy
68% FR • Stall 4
Zabriskie Point
80% FR • Stall 9
Diligent Henry
61% FR • Stall 6
Prominent
None
Versatile
Little Beck Annie
25% FR • Stall 11
Hold-Up
Mini Mac
0% FR • Stall 3
4 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Mini Mac (Stall 3)
18:30 AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap (Div 2) Southwell • Flat • 7f 15y • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 6
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 5 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning | Horse | Odds | Signals | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ardaddy | 5/1 | draw 4/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · trainer 32% w/Front Runners · SP↓ vs last run |  NOT BOWERS BUT! |
| Mini Mac | 10/11 | draw 4/5 · strongly backed · Master Rating +7 · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · SP↓ vs last run |  WATCH |
| Coulsty Exchange | 15/2 | draw 4/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · trainer 32% w/Front Runners |  ELIMINATED |
| Zabriskie Point | 6/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 37% w/Front Runners |  CONTENDER |
| Diligent Henry | 16/1  odds≥runners | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 45% w/Front Runners | ELIMINATED |
PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 126–135lbs (9lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (131lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 51 (OR ✓ = at/above median)🏟 Southwell: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Left-handed AW Fibresand. Low draws (rail) consistently favoured — early speed at low stalls very important.
Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expectedFront Runner
Coulsty Exchange
60% FR • Stall 2
Ardaddy
68% FR • Stall 4
Zabriskie Point
80% FR • Stall 9
Diligent Henry
61% FR • Stall 6
Prominent
None
Versatile
Little Beck Annie
25% FR • Stall 11
Hold-Up
Mini Mac
0% FR • Stall 3
4 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Mini Mac (Stall 3)
| # | Horse | Draw | OR | Odds | Wgt | DSLR | Bowers | Pace Profile | Draw Score | Bonuses | KNN | Final Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coulsty Exchange t I Jardine / A Mullen | 2 | 50 | 15/2 SP 8.5 card: 6/1 | 130 | 13 | #5 | Front Runner 60% FR / 20% HU 9/10 5 runs | 4/5 Stall 2 |  Drifting 7.0→15/2 SP longer than last run (2.8→8.5) | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ Beaten fav 2nd last run RPR 70 vs OR 50 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 4pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ 13 days — ideal freshness🏋 Trainer 32% with Front Runners (86/273) +4.6 | 0% Poor | 12.21 | ELIMINATED bf |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 2 | Ardaddy M Appleby / K Stott | 4 | 51 ✓ | 5/1 SP 6.0 card: 10/1 | 131 | 201 | #4 | Front Runner 68% FR / 16% HU 7/10 19 runs | 4/5 Stall 4 | Strongly backed 11.0→5/1 SP shorter than last run (10.0→6.0) ✓ | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner 3rd last run RPR 65 vs OR 51 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -7pts  RaceIQ FSP 106% last run (Southwell) — finished well above par Master Rating +0 (as expected) 201 days — very long absence 🏋 Trainer 32% with Front Runners (101/311)  IV 2.6 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓+4.91 | 0% Poor | 11.94 | NOT BOWERS BUT! CD |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 3 | Zabriskie Point t1 v A McGuinness / S M Levey | 9 | 53 ✓ | 6/1 SP 7.0 card: 8/1 | 133 | 17 | #3 | Front Runner 80% FR / 0% HU 9/10 5 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 9 | Backed 9.0→6/1 ✓ Distance winner RPR 63 vs OR 53 — well ahead of hcp RaceIQ FSP 95% last run (Doncaster) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -9pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -15 (well below handicapper expectations ) 🏋 Trainer 37% with Front Runners (55/149) +3.27 | 40% Moderate | 10.83 | CONTENDER D |
| 4✓ 2✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 4 | Little Beck Annie p P D Niven / Mark Winn | 11 | 54 ✓ | 12/1 SP 13.0 card: 13/2 | 134 | 14 | #2 | Versatile 25% FR / 0% HU 5/10 4 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 11 | Drifting badly 7.5→12/1 SP shorter than last run (23.0→13.0) ✓ | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ 2nd last run | Consistent placer RPR 64 vs OR 54 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP 105% last run (Newcastle) — solid finishing pace ✓ | RaceIQ FSP trending up +8pts over last 2 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 2.86 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓ +4.6 | 0% Poor | 10.79 | WATCH |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 5 | Mini Mac b James Owen / Marco Ghiani | 3 | 55 ✓ | 10/11 SP 1.91 card: 11/4 | 135 | 2 | #1 | Hold-Up 0% FR / 67% HU 2/10 3 runs | 4/5 Stall 3 | Strongly backed 3.8→10/11 SP shorter than last run (4.0→1.9) ✓ | won last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner Won last run RPR 62 vs OR 55 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR declining -14pts ⏱ Stopwatch: last run +7.0lb vs field average — fast Master Rating +7 (running well above handicapper expectations ) IV 2.34 (Strong) — medium fields ✓+4.72 | 0% Poor | 10.57 | WATCH D |
| 5✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 6 | Diligent Henry G Tutty / D Allan | 6 | 46 | 16/1 SP 17.0 card: 16/1 | 126 | 130 | #6 | Front Runner 61% FR / 6% HU 9/10 18 runs | — 3/5 Stall 6 | Steady at 16/1 Distance winner RPR 69 vs OR 46 — well ahead of hcp | RPR trending up +3pts RaceIQ FSP 94% last run (Pontefract) — finished below par Master Rating -6 (below expectations ) 130 days — long absence 🏋 Trainer 45% with Front Runners (27/60) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | sprint trips +0.27 | 0% Poor | 7.39 | ELIMINATED D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 7 | Blackjack b A D Brown / Rowan Scott | 13 | 55 ✓ | 40/1 SP 41.0 card: 25/1 | 135 | 42 | #7 | Front Runner 71% FR / 18% HU 6/10 17 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 13 | — | — | — |  MARKET REJECTC |
| 3✓ 2✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 8 | Bad Habits b Mrs R Carr / J P Sullivan | 10 | 55 ✓ | 25/1 SP 26.0 card: 14/1 | 135 | 35 | #7 | Prominent 52% FR / 26% HU 9/10 27 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 10 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT D |
| 2✓ 2✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 9 | Sanditon p C Johnston / Callum Shepherd | 7 | 52 ✓ | 20/1 SP 21.0 card: 12/1 | 132 | 16 | #7 | Versatile 25% FR / 0% HU 5/10 4 runs | — 3/5 Stall 7 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 10 | Tilsworth Max J R Jenkins / Jonny Peate | 12 | 50 | 25/1 SP 26.0 card: 7/1 | 130 | 31 | #7 | Versatile 33% FR / 33% HU 7/10 3 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 12 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 11 | Mickey Mongoose b Olly Williams / D Fentiman | 8 | 47 | 22/1 SP 23.0 card: 14/1 | 127 | 14 | #7 | Hold-Up 25% FR / 50% HU 6/10 4 runs | — 3/5 Stall 8 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT CD |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 12 | Regal Guest b1 G G Margarson / R Havlin | 1 | 46 | 66/1 SP 67.0 card: 25/1 | 126 | 72 | #7 | Front Runner 67% FR / 22% HU 7/10 9 runs | 4/5 Stall 1 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 13 | She's A Goldigger M Walford / Billy Garritty | 5 | 46 | 50/1 SP 51.0 card: 20/1 | 126 | 43 | #7 | Unknown 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 No history | — 3/5 Stall 5 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT |
| 0✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ? | Trainer ? |
MySportsAI
Colt
Would there be any interest perhaps from 2027 onwards putting this thread on a more formal footing. There could be a good way of finding a signal amongst the inputs, perhaps via reinforcement learning. What I am alluding to is a perhaps a scrapeable input or maybe utilising the poll function
markfinn
Sire
Can you not do it as it is - the problem with a vote is members may be just inclined to tick a box with reasoning shown
TheBluesBrother
Dam
18:30 Southwell (AW)
Zabriskie Point
Using Flat MR only (missing MR = 0), and your saved preference use only Flat MR for modelling, here's the recalculated table.
Zabriskie Point
Using Flat MR only (missing MR = 0), and your saved preference use only Flat MR for modelling, here's the recalculated table.
| Horse | OR | Full Flat MR List | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | MR+17 | (MR+17)-OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardaddy | 51 | 22,24,33,24,24,48 | 48 | 40.5 | 57.5 | +6.5 |
| Zabriskie Point | 53 | 15,28,50,23,32,49 | 50 | 49.5 | 66.5 | +13.5 |
| Mini Mac | 55 | 36,33,30,44,31,22 | 44 | 40.0 | 57.0 | +2.0 |
| Coulsty Exchange | 50 | 0,8,18,0,19 | 19 | 18.5 | 35.5 | -14.5 |
| Little Beck Annie | 54 | 28,16,23,34,37,24 | 37 | 35.5 | 52.5 | -1.5 |
| Diligent Henry | 46 | 21,25,7,33,21,20 | 33 | 29.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 |
| Bad Habits | 55 | 29,50,39,18,40,35 | 50 | 45.0 | 62.0 | +7.0 |
| Blackjack | 55 | 21,39,8,33,25,36 | 39 | 37.5 | 54.5 | -0.5 |
| Tilsworth Max | 50 | 35,31,19,24,18,23 | 35 | 33.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 |
| Mickey Mongoose | 47 | 20,29,0,3,21,28 | 29 | 28.5 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
| Sanditon | 52 | 24,37,22,0,27,24 | 37 | 32.0 | 49.0 | -3.0 |
| She's A Goldigger | 46 | 12,11,17,29,18,34 | 34 | 31.5 | 48.5 | +2.5 |
| Regal Guest | 46 | 12,20,0,10,0,5 | 20 | 16.0 | 33.0 | -13.0 |
Ranked by Best Flat MR (Descending)
Rank | Horse | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | OR | MR+17 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1= | Zabriskie Point | 50 | 49.5 | 53 | 66.5 | +13.5 |
1= | Bad Habits | 50 | 45.0 | 55 | 62.0 | +7.0 |
3 | Ardaddy | 48 | 40.5 | 51 | 57.5 | +6.5 |
4 | Mini Mac | 44 | 40.0 | 55 | 57.0 | +2.0 |
5 | Blackjack | 39 | 37.5 | 55 | 54.5 | -0.5 |
6= | Little Beck Annie | 37 | 35.5 | 54 | 52.5 | -1.5 |
6= | Sanditon | 37 | 32.0 | 52 | 49.0 | -3.0 |
8 | Tilsworth Max | 35 | 33.0 | 50 | 50.0 | 0.0 |
9 | She's A Goldigger | 34 | 31.5 | 46 | 48.5 | +2.5 |
10 | Diligent Henry | 33 | 29.0 | 46 | 46.0 | 0.0 |
11 | Mickey Mongoose | 29 | 28.5 | 47 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
12 | Regal Guest | 20 | 16.0 | 46 | 33.0 | -13.0 |
13 | Coulsty Exchange | 19 | 18.5 | 50 | 35.5 | -14.5 |
Flat MR Value View
Most positively treated on your (Best 2 MR Avg +17) vs OR method:- Zabriskie Point (+13.5)
- Bad Habits (+7.0)
- Ardaddy (+6.5)
- She's A Goldigger (+2.5)
- Mini Mac (+2.0)
It might be the case that MINI MAC has made great improvement since moving to Owens yard but the odds look a bit ridiculous to me now.
I see he ran over c/d in feb off a mark of 64 and was last of 12, now goes off 55 after a comfortable win at wolves so i don't think it looks that straightforward or worthy of even money.
BAD HABITS has gone out to as high as 40.0 so might not be a trier but he's down in grade and shown he's capable of winning 3 runs back, he should be fitter after a 139 days off before his lto run and would sooner risk a bit ew on him that the fav.
I see he ran over c/d in feb off a mark of 64 and was last of 12, now goes off 55 after a comfortable win at wolves so i don't think it looks that straightforward or worthy of even money.
BAD HABITS has gone out to as high as 40.0 so might not be a trier but he's down in grade and shown he's capable of winning 3 runs back, he should be fitter after a 139 days off before his lto run and would sooner risk a bit ew on him that the fav.
MySportsAI
Colt
As it is had lots of different format from people inputs, some just put their ratings up which often are images. If people agree to head their post with Selection is Frankel then yes as it is could be scraped and processed. At the moment just want to get a feel if people would like some data analysis of the input's. There would be no naming and shaming, the process would simply take the inputs and attempt to find profitable patterns
It's not straight forward to scrape this forum by the way.
Chesham
Sire
Is that because you still want to do the Wisdom of The Crowd Research, might be difficult with a poll as some select 2 or 3 horses In a Book
markfinn
Sire
How do you analyse their input if it’s just a name - scraping I have idea
ArkRoyal needs to be consulted - but I have problem with some keeping score always bearing mind these races do offer the possibilty of Dutching (sorry
ARAZI91 Duuutcccchhhinggg its like someone dragging their finger nails over a black board)
MySportsAI
Colt
'just a name' do you mean the tipster or the horse ?How do you analyse their input if it’s just a name - scraping I have idea
MySportsAI
Colt
If you select 2 or 3 thats not a problem, I generally select 2 and they both get logged
markfinn
Sire
well i was thinking you would want the horse ? but
MySportsAI
Colt
Well it would help if people spell the horse correctly but if its close we can derive the selection
markfinn
Sire
Selections (13 runners, so up to 3 picks):
- Mickey Mongoose. He’s a Southwell specialist with three handicap wins there, including this course and distance in May off a mark 2lb higher than today’s. His trainer is 2 from 4 in the last 14 days.
- Ardaddy. He won over this course and distance last October, and he’s now 4lb lower and 2lb lighter. I’ve lifted him on his connections: trainer Appleby is 5 from 24 and jockey Stott 6 from 35 in the last 14 days. He’s been off 201 days, but that matches his own pattern: the course-and-distance win came after 206 days off.
- Bad Habits. He’s effectively on his winning mark and weight after the 4-year-old allowance, and he’s placed in 4 of his 8 Southwell runs. Against him: he’s 0 from 8 there, and his jockey, Sullivan, is 0 from 13 in the last 14 days. The reserve is Diligent Henry: 4lb lower and 4lb lighter than his last win, with trainer and jockey both in form.
- Sanditon fails stable health: his trainer, Johnston, is 0 from 30 and his jockey, Shepherd, 0 from 35 in the last 14 days.
- Blackjack is 9, so the OR-management lens applies. His trainer has gone 139 days without a winner.