Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[DuckandDive]

From the short-list, I'm leaning towards: Initial Blue 7.60+

 

[Sullybomb]

Trying a slightly different approach with this one.

 

[markfinn]

View attachment 172748View attachment 172749

well found Simon and it goes without saying well done again Michael231

 

[DuckandDive]

wd S simon boardman and Michael231

 

[Sullybomb]

Well Done Michael231 & S simon boardman

 

[Sol Ski]

Michael231 and S simon boardman

 

[Michael231]

Thanks all they seem to be going okay lately.
And well done to S simon boardman

 

[simon boardman]

Same to you Michael231 Well Done

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done people

 

[Michael231]

How about this one for today.
22 Oct 2026

17:30
Southwell (AW)​

4yo and up longer distance 11 runners prices look okay

 

[MySportsAI]

WoM consensus says Celestial Comet

Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,CELESTIAS COMET,"['3.0', '1.0', '7.0', '7.0', '1.0', '2.0']",21.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,MAO SHANG WONG,"['7.0', '3.0', '2.0', '1.0', '3.0', '6.0']",22.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,FLIGHTOFTHEPHOENIX,"['5.0', '2.0', '6.0', '6.0', '5.0', '3.0']",27.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,SIGLIOSA,"['1.5', '4.0', '4.0', '3.0', '6.0', '10.0']",28.5
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,GOLSPIE,"['9.0', '7.0', '1.0', '2.0', '8.0', '5.0']",32.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,TWILIGHT MOON,"['8.0', '6.0', '9.0', '10.0', '4.0', '1.0']",38.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,POMME POMME,"['4.0', '8.0', '10.0', '11.0', '2.0', '4.0']",39.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE,"['10.0', '5.0', '3.0', '4.0', '10.0', '8.0']",40.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,RODOYA,"['1.5', '11.0', '8.0', '9.0', '11.0', '7.0']",47.5
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,OPTICIAN,"['6.0', '9.0', '11.0', '8.0', '7.0', '9.0']",50.0
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,BINT AL DAAR,"['11.0', '10.0', '5.0', '5.0', '9.0', '11.0']",51.0

WoM Regression says Celestial Comet

Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,CELESTIAS COMET,0.07,1.0,0.62,0.63,1.0,0.81,0.19541398194066448
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,MAO SHANG WONG,0.59,0.51,0.99,1.0,0.47,0.45,0.17296394640106055
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,GOLSPIE,0.7,0.13,1.0,0.95,0.2,0.5,0.11827480831905134
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,SIGLIOSA,0.0,0.41,0.89,0.91,0.29,0.12,0.11808333126908849
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,FLIGHTOFTHEPHOENIX,0.11,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.42,0.73,0.11152509067635782
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE,0.72,0.41,0.91,0.85,0.11,0.32,0.10435608607475642
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,TWILIGHT MOON,0.61,0.26,0.49,0.5,0.42,1.0,0.08008354838898493
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,BINT AL DAAR,1.0,0.03,0.67,0.81,0.17,0.0,0.06682806910102077
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,POMME POMME,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.0,0.59,0.51,0.056780909407741754
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,OPTICIAN,0.53,0.08,0.0,0.55,0.25,0.27,0.04934697174400693
Southwell_17:30_2026-10-22,RODOYA,0.0,0.0,0.58,0.55,0.0,0.45,0.048510513586798205

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Celestias Comet

Southwell 17:30 - Flat MR Analysis​

Missing MR values treated as 0.

Rank​	Horse	OR​	Full Flat MR List	Best MR​	Avg Best 2 MR​	MR+17​	(MR+17 − OR)​
1​	Optician	74​	0, 60, 65, 31, 56, 38	65​	62.5​	79.5​	+5.5​
2​	Everyoneknowsadave	75​	57, 61, 59, 65, 54, 33	65​	63.0​	80.0​	+5.0​
3​	Mao Shang Wong	74​	63, 58, 58, 28, 42, 37	63​	60.5​	77.5​	+3.5​
4​	Celestias Comet	72​	62, 35, 60, 26, 58, 59	62​	61.0​	78.0​	+6.0​
5​	Sigliosa	73​	42, 46, 33, 22, 61, 27	61​	53.5​	70.5​	-2.5​
6​	Bint Al Daar	67​	48, 52, 46, 48, 35, 58	58​	55.0​	72.0​	+5.0​
7​	Flightofthephoenix	73​	39, 25, 55, 23, 47, 47	55​	51.0​	68.0​	-5.0​
8​	Golspie	62​	33, 47, 40, 55, 49, 44	55​	52.0​	69.0​	+7.0​
9​	Pomme Pomme	68​	0, 29, 42, 40, 55, 14	55​	48.5​	65.5​	-2.5​
10​	Twilight Moon	71​	27, 52, 47, 20, 41, 38	52​	49.5​	66.5​	-4.5​
11​	Rodoya	67​	50, 49, 42, 0, 20, 0	50​	49.5​	66.5​	-0.5​

Takeaway​

Top MR horses: Optician, Everyoneknowsadave, Mao Shang Wong, Celestias Comet.
Best handicapped: Golspie (+7), Celestias Comet (+6), Optician (+5.5).
Best overall: Celestias Comet.

​

 

[Cashelman]

One-Line Runner Summaries


1. Celestias Comet (88): Course-and-distance winner arriving in sharp form for James Fanshawe (60%) with top jockey David Egan booked.


2. Flightofthephoenix (87): Progressive filly who has scored twice on artificial tracks recently; handles 1m3f cleanly for Charles Hills (40%).


3. Everyoneknowsadave (87): Course winner who ran well at Southwell in August; benefits from an inside rail draw in stall 1.


4. Golspie (87): Southwell course specialist in great form following a recent course win; drawn nicely in stall 3.

Unable to upload the usual image

 

[Michael231]

A trickier race than I thought but.
My two for the race are: Mao Shang Wong and Everyoneknowsadave

17:30 Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap Southwell • Flat • 1m 3f 24y • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 5

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 5 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
Everyoneknowsadave	9/2	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · CD winner · trainer 27% w/Front Runners	TOP PICK
Bint Al Daar	9/1	Master Rating +3 · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · SP↓ vs last run	ELIMINATED
Sigliosa	7/2	strongly backed · trainer 35% w/Front Runners · SP↓ vs last run	CONTENDER
Rodoya	20/1 odds≥runners	strongly backed · trainer 32% w/Front Runners · SP↓ vs last run	STRONGLY BACKED
Optician	7/2	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · SP↓ vs last run	WATCH

SLIGHTLY UNBALANCED • Weight range: 122–135lbs (13lbs spread) • Midpoint: 128.5lbs • Median weight (132lbs) is 3.5lbs from midpoint — treat Bowers with moderate caution • Median OR: 72 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Southwell: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • Distance 10f+ — draw influence significantly reduced
Left-handed AW Fibresand. Low draws (rail) consistently favoured — early speed at low stalls very important.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

Everyoneknowsadave
75% FR • Stall 1
Sigliosa
62% FR • Stall 10
Rodoya
60% FR • Stall 6

Prominent

Golspie
50% FR • Stall 3

Versatile

Celestias Comet
27% FR • Stall 9
Optician
0% FR • Stall 4

Hold-Up

Mao Shang Wong
25% FR • Stall 5
Bint Al Daar
21% FR • Stall 8
Flightofthephoenix
0% FR • Stall 7

3 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Mao Shang Wong (Stall 5), Bint Al Daar (Stall 8)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Everyoneknowsadave Jessica Macey / George Wood	1	75 ✓	9/2 SP 5.5 card: 15/2	135	29	#1	Front Runner 75% FR / 0% HU 7/10 4 runs	— 3/5 Stall 1	Strongly backed 8.5→9/2 Course winner | Distance winner RPR 85 vs OR 75 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +8pts last 3 runs | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ | TS 74 — near career best ⏱ Stopwatch: last run +5.1lb vs field average — fast 🏛 BHA -2 this week RaceIQ FSP 107% last run (Southwell) — finished well above par Master Rating -10 (well below handicapper expectations ) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 🏋 Trainer 27% with Front Runners (17/62) ✓ IV 0.51 (Poor) — medium fields +4.17	20% Weak	10.22	TOP PICK CD
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
2	Sigliosa Dan Horsford / Jason Watson	10	73 ✓	7/2 SP 4.5 card: 10/1	133	15	#3	Front Runner 62% FR / 38% HU 6/10 8 runs	— 3/5 Stall 10	Strongly backed 11.0→7/2 SP shorter than last run (15.0→4.5) ✓ RPR 62 vs OR 73 — well behind hcp RaceIQ FSP 113% last run (Wolverhampton) — finished well above par Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 🏋 Trainer 35% with Front Runners (8/23) +3.94	60% Strong	9.57	CONTENDER
2✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✗	Trainer ✓
3	Celestias Comet h J R Fanshawe / D Egan	9	72 ✓	4/1 SP 5.0 card: 9/2	132	21	#6	Versatile 27% FR / 18% HU 5/10 11 runs	— 3/5 Stall 9	Steady at 4/1 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Beaten fav 2nd last run RPR 76 vs OR 72 — slight edge | TS 70 — at/above career best Master Rating -4 (below expectations ) IV 1.93 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | middle trips ✓ +4.28	0% Poor	9.51	NOT BOWERS BUT! C bf
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
4	Rodoya b Miss J A Camacho / Ryan Sexton	6	67	20/1 SP 21.0 card: 50/1	127	21	#8	Front Runner 60% FR / 40% HU 8/10 5 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	Strongly backed 51.0→20/1 SP shorter than last run (34.0→21.0) ✓ RPR 71 vs OR 67 — slight edge | RPR declining -11pts 🏛 BHA OR 70 (card shows 67 — rated higher than card) RaceIQ FSP trending up +9pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +1 (as expected) 🏋 Trainer 32% with Front Runners (59/182) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | middle trips +3.39	20% Weak	9.41	STRONGLY BACKED
2✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
5	Mao Shang Wong D O'Meara / Cieren Fallon	5	74 ✓	15/2 SP 8.5 card: 6/1	134	36	#4	Hold-Up 25% FR / 50% HU 6/10 4 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	Drifting 7.0→15/2 SP shorter than last run (12.0→8.5) ✓ | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ 3rd last run | Consistent placer RPR 86 vs OR 74 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP 101% last run (Newcastle) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating -6 (below expectations ) IV 2.84 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | middle trips ✓ +3.69	0% Poor	9.32	WATCH
3✓ 0✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
6	Optician M Herrington / Jason Hart	4	74 ✓	7/2 SP 4.5 card: 15/2	134	12	#2	Versatile 0% FR / 25% HU 3/10 4 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	Strongly backed 8.5→7/2 SP shorter than last run (21.0→4.5) ✓ RPR 86 vs OR 74 — well ahead of hcp | RPR trending up +5pts 🏛 BHA +1 this week RaceIQ FSP 110% last run (Wolverhampton) — finished well above par Master Rating -9 (well below handicapper expectations ) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 12 days — ideal freshness IV 2.84 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | middle trips ✓ +3.9	0% Poor	8.53	WATCH
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
7	Bint Al Daar v K & L Frost / Daniel Muscutt	8	67	9/1 SP 10.0 card: 12/1	127	29	#7	Hold-Up 21% FR / 50% HU 4/10 24 runs	— 3/5 Stall 8	Backed 13.0→9/1 ✓ SP shorter than last run (17.0→10.0) ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 86 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -16pts 🏛 BHA -2 this week RaceIQ FSP 102% last run (York) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating +3 (above expectations ✓) Class drop (Cls 3→5) ✓ IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | middle trips +3.31	0% Poor	7.95	ELIMINATED CD
2✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
8	Golspie p P Morris / Paddy Bradley	3	62	12/1 SP 13.0 card: 6/1	122	23	#9	Prominent 50% FR / 50% HU 7/10 4 runs	— 3/5 Stall 3	Drifting badly 7.0→12/1 SP longer than last run (6.0→13.0) Course winner | Distance winner Won prev run RPR 54 vs OR 62 — behind hcp RaceIQ FSP 106% last run (Southwell) — finished well above par | RaceIQ FSP trending up +10pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -12 (well below handicapper expectations ) Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) IV 2.84 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | middle trips ✓ +2.25	0% Poor	7.72	ELIMINATED CD
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ✗	Trainer ✓
9	Flightofthephoenix C Hills / Finley Marsh	7	73 ✓	7/1 SP 8.0 card: 8/1	133	12	#5	Hold-Up 0% FR / 67% HU 1/10 3 runs	— 3/5 Stall 7	Backed 9.0→7/1 ✓ Distance winner RPR 78 vs OR 73 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ ⏱ Stopwatch: last run -4.8lb vs field average RaceIQ FSP 93% last run (Haydock Park) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -14pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -3 (below expectations ) 12 days — ideal freshness IV 0.51 (Poor) — medium fields +2.21	0% Poor	6.05	ELIMINATED D
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
10	Twilight Moon p M P Tregoning / D C Costello	11	71	22/1 SP 23.0 card: 11/2	131	49	#10	Prominent 53% FR / 18% HU 8/10 17 runs	— 3/5 Stall 11	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT bf
2✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
11	Pomme Pomme p J Channon / Rose Dawes	2	68	22/1 SP 23.0 card: 14/1	128	23	#10	Front Runner 88% FR / 6% HU 9/10 17 runs	— 3/5 Stall 2	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓

 

[Sullybomb]

SIGLIOSA for me.

 

[Michael231]

One-Line Runner Summaries


1. Celestias Comet (88): Course-and-distance winner arriving in sharp form for James Fanshawe (60%) with top jockey David Egan booked.


2. Flightofthephoenix (87): Progressive filly who has scored twice on artificial tracks recently; handles 1m3f cleanly for Charles Hills (40%).


3. Everyoneknowsadave (87): Course winner who ran well at Southwell in August; benefits from an inside rail draw in stall 1.


4. Golspie (87): Southwell course specialist in great form following a recent course win; drawn nicely in stall 3.

Unable to upload the usual image

Cashelman I like the look of your bottom 3

 

[Horseplayer]

Thought I'd just watched the finale of Slow Horses, it appears there's another episode here.

I'll side with my top rated EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE. A 74 may well be good enough here which he's more than capable of.

 

[Michael231]

I noticed that it was TheBluesBrother had it top but not a pick.
can't see if anyone had it apart from that.

 

[MySportsAI]

No winners so to save time I will put up Doncaster 17:05 for the 23/10/26

 

[TheBluesBrother]

17:05 Doncaster

Go Vince Go

Almarada Prince (NR)

Re-run from the raw MR figures supplied. Missing MR values treated as 0.

Rank​	Horse	Full MR List	Best MR​	Avg Best 2 MR​	OR​	MR+17​	(MR+17)-OR​
1​	Almarada Prince	59, 46, 64, 62, 62, 70	70​	67.0​	81​	87​	+6​
2​	Angel Gabriel	67, 55, 61, 51, 34, 33	67​	64.0​	83​	84​	+1​
3​	Lipsink	67, 0, 66, 33, 63, 50	67​	66.5​	83​	84​	+1​
4​	Never Just A Dream	36, 47, 48, 66, 33, 59	66​	62.5​	78​	83​	+5​
5​	Kodiac Thriller	27, 60, 21, 46, 46, 66	66​	63.0​	79​	83​	+4​
6​	Intense Vision	60, 60, 61, 59, 63, 9	63​	62.0​	85​	80​	-5​
7​	Go Vince Go	0, 57, 29, 63, 52, 44	63​	60.0​	73​	80​	+7​
8​	French Affair	49, 60, 34, 55, 61, 49	61​	60.5​	81​	78​	-3​
9​	Oriental Prince	52, 61, 30, 59, 42, 40	61​	60.0​	74​	78​	+4​
10​	Archduke Ferdinand	49, 39, 56, 57, 45, 49	57​	56.5​	80​	74​	-6​
11​	Wobwobwob	42, 33, 25, 20, 55, 28	55​	48.5​	68​	72​	+4​
12​	Mythical Phoenix	44, 55, 0, 30, 38, 37	55​	49.5​	72​	72​	0​
13​	Jellystone Park	13, 34, 32, 34, 0, 0	34​	34.0​	78​	51​	-27​

Ranked by (MR+17 − OR)​

Horse	Best MR​	OR​	Edge​
Go Vince Go	63​	73​	+7​
Almarada Prince	70​	81​	+6​
Never Just A Dream	66​	78​	+5​
Kodiac Thriller	66​	79​	+4​
Oriental Prince	61​	74​	+4​
Wobwobwob	55​	68​	+4​
Angel Gabriel	67​	83​	+1​
Lipsink	67​	83​	+1​
Mythical Phoenix	55​	72​	0​
French Affair	61​	81​	-3​
Intense Vision	63​	85​	-5​
Archduke Ferdinand	57​	80​	-6​
Jellystone Park	34​	78​	-27​

Flat MR Top 5​

1. Almarada Prince (70)
2. Angel Gabriel (67)
3. Lipsink (67)
4. Never Just A Dream (66)
5. Kodiac Thriller (66)

Best MR + Handicap Edge​

1. Almarada Prince (70, +6)
2. Go Vince Go (63, +7)
3. Never Just A Dream (66, +5)
4. Kodiac Thriller (66, +4)
5. Angel Gabriel (67, +1)
6. Lipsink (67, +1)

On your Flat MR method, Almarada Prince is the clear standout: highest MR in the race and still well treated on the MR+17 test. Go Vince Go has the strongest handicap edge (+7).