Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
These class Ratings are new and experimental . I have used a slightly different formula to cope with horses like lights Go DownChesham great write up, I just wonder is diamond geezer capable of running to win at the weight. He is my win bet for the race. ( Forum wise)
1. Today's Benchmark
- Today's Race: 4.00 Ayr (2m5f)
- Today's Median OR: 107
2. Upgraded Summary Table (4.00 Ayr)
| Horse Name | Run 1 Rating | Run 2 Rating | Run 3 Rating | Upgraded 3-Run Avg | Old Avg | Diff vs Today (107) |
| Eloi Du Puy (FR) | 103.11 | 106.40 | 102.69 | 104.07 | 101.74 | -2.93 |
| Lights Go Down | 104.55 | 104.54 | 98.73 | 102.61 | -1.49 | -4.39 |
| Diamond Geezer (IRE) | 106.00 | 101.18 | 100.05 | 102.41 | 99.53 | -4.59 |
| Jericoacoara (FR) | 112.53 | 105.82 | 85.76 | 101.37 | 99.32 | -5.63 |
| El Jefe (IRE) | 102.40 | 99.24 | 94.41 | 98.68 | 96.08 | -8.32 |
| The Navigator | 67.93 | 103.00 | 108.00 | 92.98 | 96.81 | -14.02 |
| The Jewellers Pet | 95.24 | 90.58 | N/A | 92.91* | 87.58* | -14.09* |
| Mountain Molly (IRE) | 80.23 | 105.13 | N/A | 92.68* | 86.17* | -14.32* |
| Balking (FR) | 99.68 | 93.35 | -16.91 | 58.71 | 17.34 | -48.29 |
| Nellie Bluesky | 99.59 | 78.28 | -27.74 | 50.04 | 48.24 | -56.96 |
| Go Frankie (IRE) | -34.92 | -72.85 | 58.59 | -16.39 | -58.11 | -123.39 |
3. The "Upgraded" Value Analysis
With the new data, the shape of the race changes significantly:1. The "Hidden" Contender: Lights Go Down (7/1) The new formula completely unmasks him. By correcting the 0 OR issue, we can see his Maiden/Novice hurdle form is actually rock solid. He has been running to marks over 100 consistently. At 7/1, he is no longer a bad bet; he actually represents a very unexposed, well-handicapped horse stepping into a handicap for the first time.
2. The Best Overall Profile: Eloi Du Puy (8/1) The upgraded formula loves him even more. Factoring in the weights he carried and the ground conditions, he overtakes the favourite, Diamond Geezer, for the highest 3-run average in the field (104.07). At 8/1, he remains the best each-way value in the race.
3. The Favourite: Diamond Geezer (2/1) His numbers improved to 102.41, confirming he is a major threat. However, because he was carrying lower weights in some of his past runs (meaning he wasn't penalized as much by the old formula), his upgrades weren't as drastic as Eloi Du Puy's. At 2/1, he is still strictly the one to beat, but the betting value lies elsewhere.
4. The Wildcard: Jericoacoara (16/1) He remains a massive price for a horse with an upgraded average of 101.37. The new formula gave him an extra boost because his past races produced multiple subsequent winners (he gained form boosts). If you forgive his last run, his class numbers make 16/1 look like an absolute steal.
Leodis
Gelding
Diamond Geezer
A no bet, as the physical weight is a concern. It beat similar competition 6l with 11-0. The extra 14lbs could be telling on this ground.
- Ran above today's par LTO over CD & G, needs to find 2lbs on the Hcp assessment
- Top on adjusted gallop-out figures
A no bet, as the physical weight is a concern. It beat similar competition 6l with 11-0. The extra 14lbs could be telling on this ground.
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gerry
Mare
It is a interesting race the 4 00 Ayr and i must admit in don't usually like 4yold against older over hurdles but i do think LIGHTS GO DOWN has a improving look about it always seems to be staying on in races and i feel along with its flat form this horse is likely a lot more forward than typical 4yold hurdlers and could just be well in here to at least go very close.
It's never easy to analyse whether or not the 12lbs 4yr old or so allowance favours them above the older generations but i suspect at the very least it doesn't harm their chances.
Looking back through the form of the older horses in this 4.00 clock race and in particular DIAMOND GEEZER who was rated 94 on his hdc debut though he was 5yr old then. also ELOI DU PUY was 5yr old and hdc deb rated 96, so it is interesting to see LIGHTS GO DOWN on 107 while still a 4yr old.
Trying to understand if that rating his real or logical now might be a little complicated to fathom and over the years i have mistaken what the reality of the numbers might be telling me.
So how good is the form for LGD ?
Personally i would ignore his first two runs and concentrate on his close second to INDIAN RIVER who was pushed hard to beat LGD giving 7lbs a half a length between them at the line, this was dec 27th and the winner has won again on his hdc debut when rated 117, he's now rated 122 and has entries in the Triumph & Fred winter.
If we take the form literally you could argue that LGD ran to a mark of around 112 ?
3rd horse was 8L further back that day and has since flopped 7th of 7 chepstow, having watched that race i feel JEDHI KNIGHT might have slightly injured himself 3 out before he dropped away but you can never be sure.
Still i think there's enough to believe LGD is well weighted today and my main worry would be going up in distance, he can be a little keen and although we keep seeing him running on over 2m there's no guarantee he'll benefit from another 4f, he might but we've yet to see it.
Is 4/1 value ? well he's getting 20lbs off DIAMOND GEEZER 15/8 so i would say 4/1 is reasonable and i'm tempted to back LIGHTS GO DOWN even with the caveats mentioned.
Looking back through the form of the older horses in this 4.00 clock race and in particular DIAMOND GEEZER who was rated 94 on his hdc debut though he was 5yr old then. also ELOI DU PUY was 5yr old and hdc deb rated 96, so it is interesting to see LIGHTS GO DOWN on 107 while still a 4yr old.
Trying to understand if that rating his real or logical now might be a little complicated to fathom and over the years i have mistaken what the reality of the numbers might be telling me.
So how good is the form for LGD ?
Personally i would ignore his first two runs and concentrate on his close second to INDIAN RIVER who was pushed hard to beat LGD giving 7lbs a half a length between them at the line, this was dec 27th and the winner has won again on his hdc debut when rated 117, he's now rated 122 and has entries in the Triumph & Fred winter.
If we take the form literally you could argue that LGD ran to a mark of around 112 ?
3rd horse was 8L further back that day and has since flopped 7th of 7 chepstow, having watched that race i feel JEDHI KNIGHT might have slightly injured himself 3 out before he dropped away but you can never be sure.
Still i think there's enough to believe LGD is well weighted today and my main worry would be going up in distance, he can be a little keen and although we keep seeing him running on over 2m there's no guarantee he'll benefit from another 4f, he might but we've yet to see it.
Is 4/1 value ? well he's getting 20lbs off DIAMOND GEEZER 15/8 so i would say 4/1 is reasonable and i'm tempted to back LIGHTS GO DOWN even with the caveats mentioned.
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Jackform
Mare
Tail end charlie again with my opinion with the benefit of reading the other posts, but that doesn'tsway my judgement as I mhave my own way of doing things 
.
Ayr (S some Hvy - light rain) MY hot yard O Murphy. Jock S Bowen
4.00 Early mkt expect no's 10.05 ordr of merit 1, 11, 10, 2, 3 indication of a win from these.
My opinion: given the hcap weight range no's 8 -11 appear to have the advantage. Diamond Geezer, Murphy/Bowen is fancied but not value.
My Preference if for The Jewellers Pet 7/2 chance my tissue curently 5/1 will do for me.
At The Races for comparison.
THE JEWELLER'S PET won this off a similar mark last year and signalled a return to form back over C&D last time. Not beaten far in third on that occasion, a bold bid is anticipated from Ian Duncan's charge with the underfoot conditions also in his favour. The Navigator landed a double on faster going at Kelso last autumn, but Diamond Geezer may prove a bigger threat fresh from a convincing success under Sean Bowen here last time.
Top Tip: The Jeweller's Pet (10)
Watch out for: Diamond Geezer (1)
Eloi Du Puy was no match for DIAMOND GEEZER over C&D two weeks ago and is again expected to be put in his place despite a 6lb pull at the weights. The selection stormed clear late, showing improved form, and is taken to defy a 7lb rise. Nellie Bluesky narrowly failed to Sedgefield last time, when hitting the line hard, and the nature of this course, with the long, galloping straight should suit her well.
.Ayr (S some Hvy - light rain) MY hot yard O Murphy. Jock S Bowen
4.00 Early mkt expect no's 10.05 ordr of merit 1, 11, 10, 2, 3 indication of a win from these.
My opinion: given the hcap weight range no's 8 -11 appear to have the advantage. Diamond Geezer, Murphy/Bowen is fancied but not value.
My Preference if for The Jewellers Pet 7/2 chance my tissue curently 5/1 will do for me.
At The Races for comparison.
THE JEWELLER'S PET won this off a similar mark last year and signalled a return to form back over C&D last time. Not beaten far in third on that occasion, a bold bid is anticipated from Ian Duncan's charge with the underfoot conditions also in his favour. The Navigator landed a double on faster going at Kelso last autumn, but Diamond Geezer may prove a bigger threat fresh from a convincing success under Sean Bowen here last time.
Top Tip: The Jeweller's Pet (10)
Watch out for: Diamond Geezer (1)
Eloi Du Puy was no match for DIAMOND GEEZER over C&D two weeks ago and is again expected to be put in his place despite a 6lb pull at the weights. The selection stormed clear late, showing improved form, and is taken to defy a 7lb rise. Nellie Bluesky narrowly failed to Sedgefield last time, when hitting the line hard, and the nature of this course, with the long, galloping straight should suit her well.
1-2-3 Selections
- Diamond Geezer (1)
- Eloi Du Puy (3)
- Nellie Bluesky (8)
DuckandDive
Mare
Lights Go Down @4/1+ fits the profile of a runner with a feather weight (10-8), with a suitable race found by the Easterby's on its Hcap Hurdle debut. Top on T.S and scores well with RPR, seems to confirm conditions are in it's favour. Stepping up to 2m4f is a question, but they will know best.
mlmrob
Sire
The Jewelers Pet tries to win this for the second year in a row off 1lb higher. He has followed a similar trail to last season when he wqon at Ayr's previous meeting before winning on this date. Ian Duncan had two runners in that aformentioned race, winning with his other runner. The market didn't speak of either horse and The Jewlelers Pet did keep on and the discarded cheekpieces are back on.
markfinn
Sire
Once again a good winner found on this forum all from diverse angles - the fav was it undone by excess weight ? Going ? We never really know and on another day may well have proved the books correct. Never easy is it but the collective had it covered . Well done
pawras
Chesham and the ever green
Jackform
pawras
Chesham and the ever green
Jackform
Chesham
Sire
No totally different from the old class ratings . Weight , Key Race Form, adjustment made for lengths beaten depending on the going for past 3 runs and few other things thrown in .
Attheraces did not do too bad with their assessment
Ran to price and came last
