Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
DuckandDive
Mare
Appears to be no value for the front two in the market, despite their consistency. The current fav's mark, 46 --> 71, maybe a bridge too far?
This set up, indicates Soames Forsyte/Bajan Bandit/Studious.
--
Even pace expected.
This set up, indicates Soames Forsyte/Bajan Bandit/Studious.
--
Even pace expected.
markfinn
Sire
Tight race this one - Jockey and trainer stats lead the way - Studious stands at top of the ratings can not fault his chances, 1st season as a 4yr old so always a bit of an gamble but jockey has won twice before with the horse
Soames Forsyte 7yr has the worst of the draw but best trainer stats and backed with a good jockey
Forest Caper - un proven
Eves Boy Paul Mulrenan up again but hard to see this one winning
Camino Del Ray - 200 days since we last saw this one
Got to be Studious and ? lets go for value and check the market out Forest Caper at 8/1 looks ok
Michael231
Gelding
Only have 1 for the race and is top form horse for today.
19:00 Southwell Aisling Oscar 54 6 108.2
Will put the ratings for race up later.
19:00 Southwell Aisling Oscar 54 6 108.2
Will put the ratings for race up later.
Jackform
Mare
It's your pencil and paper Fineform punter again 
. My hot yard is A Keatley
Southwell (St - light rain) Early Mkt expected from 1.05pm in order of merit 4, 11, 1, 7, 6, 5
7.00 looks an open contest at present.
1. 9 (My price no overround) 7/1 (6/1 mkt)
2. 0 ? (33/1)
3. 1 66/1 (16/1)
4. 15 4/1 (11/4) Aisling Oscar - A Keatley yard
5. 11 11/2 (8/1) Bajan Bandit
6. 4 16/1 (15/2)
7. 3 22/1 (13/2)
8. 12 5/1 (12/1)
9. 0 ? (40/1)
10. 0 ? (50/1)
11. 16 7/2 (4/1)
MY comment: Not a serious betting race it looks unblanced as a hcap with just an 11lb range, A form race really where somethiong from the top third favoured by the authorities and that takes us down to no 7. Aisling Oscar is the obvous selection but not at the early odds. Bajan Bandit looks to have value currently each way if you want to risk it.
. My hot yard is A KeatleySouthwell (St - light rain) Early Mkt expected from 1.05pm in order of merit 4, 11, 1, 7, 6, 5
7.00 looks an open contest at present.
1. 9 (My price no overround) 7/1 (6/1 mkt)
2. 0 ? (33/1)
3. 1 66/1 (16/1)
4. 15 4/1 (11/4) Aisling Oscar - A Keatley yard
5. 11 11/2 (8/1) Bajan Bandit
6. 4 16/1 (15/2)
7. 3 22/1 (13/2)
8. 12 5/1 (12/1)
9. 0 ? (40/1)
10. 0 ? (50/1)
11. 16 7/2 (4/1)
MY comment: Not a serious betting race it looks unblanced as a hcap with just an 11lb range, A form race really where somethiong from the top third favoured by the authorities and that takes us down to no 7. Aisling Oscar is the obvous selection but not at the early odds. Bajan Bandit looks to have value currently each way if you want to risk it.
Michael231
Gelding
Time Course Horse form class rating
19:00 Southwell Bajan Bandit 44 6 67.7
19:00 Southwell Finn Ironside 41 6 56.8
19:00 Southwell Marry The Night 39 6 73.2
19:00 Southwell Studious 33 6 53.1
19:00 Southwell Shaw Park 42 6 62.8
19:00 Southwell Camino Del Ray 29 6 44.8
19:00 Southwell Forest Caper 43 6 66.7
19:00 Southwell Soames Forsyte 28 6 58.7
19:00 Southwell Evocative Spark 35 6 49.8
19:00 Southwell Aisling Oscar 54 6 108.2
19:00 Southwell Eves Boy 26 6 46.7
19:00 Southwell Bajan Bandit 44 6 67.7
19:00 Southwell Finn Ironside 41 6 56.8
19:00 Southwell Marry The Night 39 6 73.2
19:00 Southwell Studious 33 6 53.1
19:00 Southwell Shaw Park 42 6 62.8
19:00 Southwell Camino Del Ray 29 6 44.8
19:00 Southwell Forest Caper 43 6 66.7
19:00 Southwell Soames Forsyte 28 6 58.7
19:00 Southwell Evocative Spark 35 6 49.8
19:00 Southwell Aisling Oscar 54 6 108.2
19:00 Southwell Eves Boy 26 6 46.7
Don't know how but this horse AISLING OSCAR is a mystery to me even though he's won 7 on the trot.
Spent a few minutes watching him winning and it becomes clear that connections knew they had a well handicapped horse after a nice 3rd at wolvs, winning with plenty in hand and then progressing to a horse that's just doing enough is perfect imo and a credit to the trainer.
Today we have to consider if a horse that's risen from a mark of 46 since coming from ireland to today's mark of 71 makes him vulnerable ?
Frankly i don't know so obviously try find something that might help me come to a conclusion other than the manner of his last win against his new mark and from what i can see he looked fairly stretched to win off 65 so another 6lbs looks tough, then they choose a very different track ie round a bend and flat which might make one suspicious of intentions but again who knows ?
I still don't understand enough about the metrics and the differences between newc and southwell so clearly if i can't get any kind of grips on the fav my input would be worthless.
Spent a few minutes watching him winning and it becomes clear that connections knew they had a well handicapped horse after a nice 3rd at wolvs, winning with plenty in hand and then progressing to a horse that's just doing enough is perfect imo and a credit to the trainer.
Today we have to consider if a horse that's risen from a mark of 46 since coming from ireland to today's mark of 71 makes him vulnerable ?
Frankly i don't know so obviously try find something that might help me come to a conclusion other than the manner of his last win against his new mark and from what i can see he looked fairly stretched to win off 65 so another 6lbs looks tough, then they choose a very different track ie round a bend and flat which might make one suspicious of intentions but again who knows ?
I still don't understand enough about the metrics and the differences between newc and southwell so clearly if i can't get any kind of grips on the fav my input would be worthless.
Last edited:
DuckandDive
Mare
markfinn
Sire
Well done all and what a horse
