Today's bets
- Thread starter primrose4
- Start date
Last night I noted three horses worth backing at Warwick:-
330 Bobbi's Beauty
As much as anything it is the only horse in this race that seems
to be maintaining its form, She is for Me is showing declining
form and seems to have gone backwards. Irish Chorus finished
last of three in a recent race. Ephinine is no more than modest.
This is not a betting race though since the price of Bobbi's Beauty
has fallen so much that any bettor would be playing into the hands
of the layers. 5/1 was available early this Morning, current price 11/4
and still coming in.
4.10 Super Survivor (n b)
At around 5/1 this horse really does represent value. Super Survivor has
been running well against some good sorts who have gone on to frank the
form. The horse does not really have to show any degree of improvement
to win this race.
4.48 House of Hapsburg (nap)
There are two horses in this race who have the abiiity to win this race besides
Hapsburg. Mumford's Magic is only 1 point behind House of Hapsburg in the
ratings. As with Bobbi's Beauty though in the earlier race, the price of Mumford's
Magic has contracted too much to make it of interest. A case could be made for
Jubilant. This horse has not been running against horses of the ability of the Big
Two though.
The only reason that House of Hapsburg is the selection over Mumford's Magic
is because it has consistently attracted more market support than the latter.
Perhaps not the best of reasons.
330 Bobbi's Beauty
As much as anything it is the only horse in this race that seems
to be maintaining its form, She is for Me is showing declining
form and seems to have gone backwards. Irish Chorus finished
last of three in a recent race. Ephinine is no more than modest.
This is not a betting race though since the price of Bobbi's Beauty
has fallen so much that any bettor would be playing into the hands
of the layers. 5/1 was available early this Morning, current price 11/4
and still coming in.
4.10 Super Survivor (n b)
At around 5/1 this horse really does represent value. Super Survivor has
been running well against some good sorts who have gone on to frank the
form. The horse does not really have to show any degree of improvement
to win this race.
4.48 House of Hapsburg (nap)
There are two horses in this race who have the abiiity to win this race besides
Hapsburg. Mumford's Magic is only 1 point behind House of Hapsburg in the
ratings. As with Bobbi's Beauty though in the earlier race, the price of Mumford's
Magic has contracted too much to make it of interest. A case could be made for
Jubilant. This horse has not been running against horses of the ability of the Big
Two though.
The only reason that House of Hapsburg is the selection over Mumford's Magic
is because it has consistently attracted more market support than the latter.
Perhaps not the best of reasons.
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Michael231
Gelding
Got the same 3 with my contender ratings hope they do well
P
primrose4
Although the first one I have as 2nd with the class and rating so not top but we know how the top rated of anything performs.
Although the first one I have as 2nd with the class and rating so not top but we know how the top rated of anything performs.
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Michael231
Gelding
Well 2 from 3 is okay would have been a profit, but I decided to do a treble to small stakes but i'm sure
P
primrose4 did the singles for a profit
I have placed today's bets and they both go in the same race
at Taunton.- When anaylysing the 3.10 I could not split them.
Tilehurst @ 10/1 seems to have the best characteristics of the
winner of the race but Arctic Voyage at an even bigger 18/1 was
crying out to be used as a saver bet.
at Taunton.- When anaylysing the 3.10 I could not split them.
Tilehurst @ 10/1 seems to have the best characteristics of the
winner of the race but Arctic Voyage at an even bigger 18/1 was
crying out to be used as a saver bet.
Michael231
Gelding
unlucky with Tilehurst
P
primrose4
I have gone for three horses today:-
2.30 at Hereford Desperaux
Desperaux has really drifted out to a backable price. I thought that last
night's price of 2/1 was too stingy to get involved but at 100/30 it looks
a value bet.
6.00 at Kempton Lion of Mali
Another drifter from the p.m. price. Lion of Mali is best handicapped upon ratings
but there is a question mark concerning the horse's Class against today's opposition.
Keep an eye out for Dublin Boy who looks a potential improver.
6.30 at Kempton Apiarist
Both Serengeti and Sarah's Star have work to do to trouble Apiarist. At 5/1 I would
make this the best bet of the day.
2.30 at Hereford Desperaux
Desperaux has really drifted out to a backable price. I thought that last
night's price of 2/1 was too stingy to get involved but at 100/30 it looks
a value bet.
6.00 at Kempton Lion of Mali
Another drifter from the p.m. price. Lion of Mali is best handicapped upon ratings
but there is a question mark concerning the horse's Class against today's opposition.
Keep an eye out for Dublin Boy who looks a potential improver.
6.30 at Kempton Apiarist
Both Serengeti and Sarah's Star have work to do to trouble Apiarist. At 5/1 I would
make this the best bet of the day.
Michael231
Gelding
They look good to me, as I have 2 of them.
Not Lion of Mali though, good luck with them
Not Lion of Mali though, good luck with them
I am amazed sometimes at just how out of sync that the odds compilers
are by comparison with the actual prices available. One of the best examples
is in the 4.57 at Wincanton today. Last night Celtic Art was shown as being
the forecast 7/2 favourite in the Racing Post. Bookmakers picked up on this
because there was almost a universal price of 4/1 apart from Paddy Power
who were even shorter.
In the event the a.m. price is a quite incredible 12/1. The price might even
have gone out further than this in the earliest exchanges. I have mentioned
Celtic Art because it is the horse that I have backed in this race, fortunately
at the proper price of 12/1..
The other race where I was going to place a bet was in the 4.40 at Kempton.
Last night bookmakers were universal that Port Laureate was a 13/2 chance
for this race. In the event the opening a.m. price is a skinny 100/30 amongst
almost all layers. So clearly no bet at those odds.
are by comparison with the actual prices available. One of the best examples
is in the 4.57 at Wincanton today. Last night Celtic Art was shown as being
the forecast 7/2 favourite in the Racing Post. Bookmakers picked up on this
because there was almost a universal price of 4/1 apart from Paddy Power
who were even shorter.
In the event the a.m. price is a quite incredible 12/1. The price might even
have gone out further than this in the earliest exchanges. I have mentioned
Celtic Art because it is the horse that I have backed in this race, fortunately
at the proper price of 12/1..
The other race where I was going to place a bet was in the 4.40 at Kempton.
Last night bookmakers were universal that Port Laureate was a 13/2 chance
for this race. In the event the opening a.m. price is a skinny 100/30 amongst
almost all layers. So clearly no bet at those odds.
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Chesham
Sire
Hi
P
primrose4
Looked at this race last night and CA was 7/2 strange did not expect it to drift that much
This is the full post
the 4.57 Wincanton! This 2m 4f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle on Good ground is an exceptional puzzle.
I’ve integrated the Form Boost, crunched the Class Trajectories, and pulled every single RaceIQ metric—right down to the stride frequencies and envelope times.
Memory Check: I ran the field looking for our Outstanding Tactical Value (
) profile—a closer with elite jumping and an extreme >112% Finishing Speed. While no one quite hit that explosive >112% threshold today, we do have some absolute biomechanical weapons in this field that the market is mispricing.
As a National Hunt Hurdle, the Baseline Weight is 11-0 (154 lbs).
The Complete Package: Valadon (5/1)
The Elite Selection: Valadon (5/1)
He is the bet of the race. His RaceIQ metrics are off the charts. Gaining +10.15L jumping with a 100% Positive Jump rate and only -1.08 mph speed lost means he is hurdling with absolute precision. Tracking the solid pace set by Bourbali, his flawless technique will save him massive amounts of energy for the finish.
The Class/Form Boost Wildcard: Last Kingdom (20/1)
If you want an Each-Way swing, this is it. He has pulled up twice, but his Irish form (128.41 CCR) is superior to this field, and the Timeform "Form Boost" confirms it. If he finally clicks for Faye Bramley, 20/1 is a ridiculous price on raw class alone.
The Statistical Lay: Celtic Art (7/2)
A fantastic Lay. He bled -5.19L at his hurdles last time out with an abysmal 11.11% Positive Jump rate and a 2.21s recovery time. He will burn far too much energy trying to maintain his prominent position against solid jumpers.
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(Note: PRB² is calculated from LTO finishing position relative to field size. Tfig represents the highest Timeform Speed Figure in the last 3 runs).
Looked at this race last night and CA was 7/2 strange did not expect it to drift that much
This is the full post
the 4.57 Wincanton! This 2m 4f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle on Good ground is an exceptional puzzle.
I’ve integrated the Form Boost, crunched the Class Trajectories, and pulled every single RaceIQ metric—right down to the stride frequencies and envelope times.
Memory Check: I ran the field looking for our Outstanding Tactical Value (
) profile—a closer with elite jumping and an extreme >112% Finishing Speed. While no one quite hit that explosive >112% threshold today, we do have some absolute biomechanical weapons in this field that the market is mispricing.As a National Hunt Hurdle, the Baseline Weight is 11-0 (154 lbs).
1. The Pace Map: The Analiese Blueprint
Running the Start Position (IP) scan reveals a very honest, true-run race:- Bourbali (FR: 21): A dedicated, hard-wired front-runner. He "led at a good gallop" LTO and will take them along here.
- Celtic Art (FR: 11, P: 13): Wants to be on the sharp end and will press Bourbali.
- Moveit Like Minnie (P: 11, TC: 10): Will sit prominent, stalking the leading pair.
- The Verdict: We have a solid, contested pace, but not a suicidal meltdown. This setup perfectly favors horses in the mid-division who jump efficiently and conserve energy for the straight.
2. Custom Class Ratings (CCR) & The "Form Boost"
3. The Complete RaceIQ Biomechanical Deep Dive
This is where the race is won and lost. Using all the granular tracking metrics, the jumping profiles clearly separate the contenders from the pretenders.The Complete Package: Valadon (5/1)
- Jump Index: 8.4/10 | Lengths Gained Jumping: +10.15L (Elite)
- Top Speed: 35.91 mph | Finishing Speed % (FSP): 102.21%
- Air Mechanics: Entry Speed 28.93 mph → Speed Lost just -1.08 mph (Best in race) → Time in Envelope 4.73s →Exit Speed 28.97 mph.
- Efficiency: Recovery Time 0.88s | Positive Jump 100.00%.
- Stride Data: Freq (1.95 Min / 2.04 Avg / 2.27 Max) | Length (5.24m Min / 6.26m Avg / 7.55m Max).
- The Synergy: He is biomechanically flawless. He attacks his hurdles, loses barely 1 mph in the air, and recovers in under a second. This +10.15L advantage makes a mockery of his 115 Official Rating.
- Jump Index: 7.1/10 | Lengths Gained Jumping: +4.49L
- Top Speed: 33.61 mph | FSP: 100.60%
- Air Mechanics: Entry 28.89 mph → Speed Lost -2.76 mph → Time in Env 5.00s → Exit 27.66 mph.
- Efficiency: Recovery Time 1.55s | Positive Jump 90.91%.
- Stride Data: Freq (1.86 / 1.99 / 2.12) | Length (5.89m / 6.70m / 7.50m).
- The Synergy: A massive, long-striding horse (6.70m average length) who clears his hurdles cleanly (+4.49L, 90.91% positive). He will sit beautifully off Bourbali's pace.
- RaceIQ Red Flags: LTO, he posted a 7.1/10 Jump Index but lost -5.19L in the air. His Speed Lost was a terrible -3.70 mph, his Time in Envelope was a sluggish 4.84s, and his Recovery Time was a grinding 2.21s. Most damningly, his Positive Jump % was just 11.11%.
- The Synergy: You cannot back a 7/2 favorite who bleeds over 5 lengths jumping and takes 2.2 seconds to recover his stride after every hurdle.
4. Final RaceIQ Tactical Blueprint
The Elite Selection: Valadon (5/1)
He is the bet of the race. His RaceIQ metrics are off the charts. Gaining +10.15L jumping with a 100% Positive Jump rate and only -1.08 mph speed lost means he is hurdling with absolute precision. Tracking the solid pace set by Bourbali, his flawless technique will save him massive amounts of energy for the finish.The Class/Form Boost Wildcard: Last Kingdom (20/1) 
If you want an Each-Way swing, this is it. He has pulled up twice, but his Irish form (128.41 CCR) is superior to this field, and the Timeform "Form Boost" confirms it. If he finally clicks for Faye Bramley, 20/1 is a ridiculous price on raw class alone.The Statistical Lay: Celtic Art (7/2) 
A fantastic Lay. He bled -5.19L at his hurdles last time out with an abysmal 11.11% Positive Jump rate and a 2.21s recovery time. He will burn far too much energy trying to maintain his prominent position against solid jumpers.Complete Summary Table
| Horse Name | Avg CCR | Peak LTO Class Rtg | Peak 3-Run TFR | Tfig | Avg PR% | PBR 2 (PRB²) | Primary IP Style | Timeform Insight | Current Odds |
| Valadon | 116.50 | 123.00 | 116 | 92 | 63.40% | 0.83 | Tracked / Mid | First-time tongue strap was the catalyst | 5/1 |
| Moveit Like Minnie | 105.30 | 101.24 | 111 | 85 | 52.10% | 0.73 | Prominent (11) | Ran as well as he has this season LTO | 4/1 |
| Ambion View | 109.40 | 108.64 | 115 | 88 | 58.50% | 0.72 | Tracked / Mid | Returned to form, doesn't do much wrong | 5/1 |
| Celtic Art | 108.50 | 88.20 | 121 | 94 | 51.20% | 0.28 | Prominent / Front | Found run of good form coming to a halt | 7/2 F |
| Swingin Safari | 101.20 | 98.40 | 116 | 83 | 47.60% | 0.50 | Tracked / Prom | Strong-galloping type, capable of better | 6/1 |
| Crebilly | 112.10 | PU (N/A) | 119 | 97 | 42.80% | 0.00 | Mid-Division (7) | Sweating, again failed to show his form | 8/1 |
| Bourbali | 110.80 | 102.50 | 124 | 98 | 46.70% | 0.44 | Front Runner (21) | Forcing tactics took their toll LTO | 8/1 |
| Last Kingdom | 128.41 | PU (N/A) | 125 | 105 | 22.30% | 0.00 | Mid-Division | FORM BOOST: Better judged on past form | 20/1 |
(Note: PRB² is calculated from LTO finishing position relative to field size. Tfig represents the highest Timeform Speed Figure in the last 3 runs).
A first posting from me for this new Flat season.
Using the same method that did well before July
of last season, I have found two horses at Nottingham
that are both worth backing:-
4.25 Layla Liz @ 15/2
5.25 Just an Hour @ 3/1
The owners of Layla Liz should have been informed that
this is not a good name for a successful racehorse.
Using the same method that did well before July
of last season, I have found two horses at Nottingham
that are both worth backing:-
4.25 Layla Liz @ 15/2
5.25 Just an Hour @ 3/1
The owners of Layla Liz should have been informed that
this is not a good name for a successful racehorse.
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I have quite enjoyed watching some of the races at the
Guineas meeting. It is now time to get involved in the betting
side of things.
The best bet runs in the 2.20 at Newmarket.
Francophone looks up to taking this at a price of 12/1.
It is clear that low draws have been somewhat disadvantaged
in the first couple of days of the Guineas meeting and there is
no reason to believe that this trend should not continue.
The reason that I fancy Francophone to win is that on the
all-important Official Ratings that it appears the best of the
contenders.
Guineas meeting. It is now time to get involved in the betting
side of things.
The best bet runs in the 2.20 at Newmarket.
Francophone looks up to taking this at a price of 12/1.
It is clear that low draws have been somewhat disadvantaged
in the first couple of days of the Guineas meeting and there is
no reason to believe that this trend should not continue.
The reason that I fancy Francophone to win is that on the
all-important Official Ratings that it appears the best of the
contenders.
I have finally begun to find a degree of success in this flat season.
Today I rated one race at one of my favourite tracks, Ripon, This is
the 3.50. In this race there is a clear selection which comes out
best on both the Racing Post ratings and the basic VDW method.
The horse is Space Bear, at 9/2. There are two other contenders in this race
to make it competitive, these being Shatlow and Alpine Girl.
The 6 points plus advantage though enjoyed by Space Bear should be sufficient
to put its head in front when it matters.
I have also analysed the 5.05 at Hamilton. Here there is conflict. Seven Star looks
out of contention. The other two contenders show conflict. Plaid is the selection
using the basic VDW method of selection whilst Dunkfeld Dreamer is the selection
using the Racing Post ratings. It is a shame that the Tote axed the reverse forecast bet.
I have just realised that if you were to put the two contenders into a percentage chance
of winning scenario, then Plaid would come out on top.
Today I rated one race at one of my favourite tracks, Ripon, This is
the 3.50. In this race there is a clear selection which comes out
best on both the Racing Post ratings and the basic VDW method.
The horse is Space Bear, at 9/2. There are two other contenders in this race
to make it competitive, these being Shatlow and Alpine Girl.
The 6 points plus advantage though enjoyed by Space Bear should be sufficient
to put its head in front when it matters.
I have also analysed the 5.05 at Hamilton. Here there is conflict. Seven Star looks
out of contention. The other two contenders show conflict. Plaid is the selection
using the basic VDW method of selection whilst Dunkfeld Dreamer is the selection
using the Racing Post ratings. It is a shame that the Tote axed the reverse forecast bet.
I have just realised that if you were to put the two contenders into a percentage chance
of winning scenario, then Plaid would come out on top.
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Chesham
Sire
Experimental Master Summary: Handicap-Adjusted CCR (Full Comments)
Today's OR Benchmark (Median): 77.5 Base Weight: 9-0 (126 lbs)| Horse Name | Unadjusted CCR Trajectory (Old CCR + Past OR) | Adjusted CCR Trajectory (Unadjusted CCR - Today's OR) | L3 TFR / Tfig | Full Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkeld Dreamer | 141.16 ➔ 153.00 ➔ 156.40 | 62.16 ➔ 74.00 ➔ 77.40 | TFR:77 ➔ 84 ➔ 84 Tfig:67 ➔ 81 ➔ 67 | 1. was unplaced for the first time in handicaps but ran close to her best and left the impression she might just strip fitter for this first outing in 5 months; close up, shaken up over 2f out, faded final 1f. 2. showed the benefit of a recent outing and the run of the race to record a battling success; dictated, pushed along under 3f out, tackled over 1f out, kept on; it would be churlish to crab her attitude, for all that she gave a brief flash of her tail 1f out, but the percentage call is still that she'll be vulnerable off higher marks. 3. had caused a shock at Haydock 9 days prior and ran at least as well in defeat from 3 lb higher; made running, pushed along over 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, no extra final 100 yds. |
| Plaid | 128.15 ➔ 143.00 ➔ 146.55 | 53.15 ➔ 68.00 ➔ 71.55 | TFR:68 ➔ 70 ➔ 82 Tfig:58 ➔ 42 ➔ 68 | 1. showed promise, shaping as if taking much more after her sire than dam; slowly into stride, raced well off the pace, steady headway from 3f out, took second final 100 yds, not knocked about; will improve. 2. switched to all-weather after 7 weeks off, confirmed debut promise to go one better, in the process adding weight to the idea she'll stay a fair bit further than dam's side of pedigree might suggest; raced wide, handy, shaken up over 2f out, ran green, led final 100 yds, driven out; she remains with potential. 3. couldn't justify significant support after 4 months off but showed improved form nevertheless in splitting a pair of fellow handicap newcomers; in touch, headway over 2f out, led 1f out, headed final 100 yds, kept on; she's open to further progress. |
| Cancelled | 165.67 ➔ 148.57 ➔ 150.87 | 89.67 ➔ 72.57 ➔ 74.87 | TFR:85 ➔ 66 ➔ 82 Tfig:45 ➔ 34 ➔ 72 | 1. shaped as if better for the run with the tongue tie left off after 11 months off, tying up and losing several places late on having initially got first run in the straight; handy, took keen hold and led after 2f, kicked on approaching straight, edged left entering final 1f, headed soon after. 2. easy to back, was below form over 1f shorter trip after further 11 weeks off and has a bit to prove for this yard; prominent, challenged under 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened. 3. ran creditably having her first turf start for this yard, on firmer ground than previously, too, and shaped like she might come on again a touch for the outing; mid-field, had to pick way through 2f out, edged left, chased leaders over 1f out, effort flattened out only late on. |
| Epidavros | 141.87 ➔ 138.38 ➔ 144.56 | 70.87 ➔ 67.38 ➔ 73.56 | TFR:64 ➔ 76 ➔ 75 Tfig:70 ➔ 66 ➔ 65 | 1. wasn't in the same form as last time; in touch, went prominent early in straight, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f. 2. drew a blank in 2025 but performed more often than not and made a solid start to the new campaign after 6 months off, just a few lb below peak form; soon steadied, off pace, steady progress straight, kept on. 3. back down in grade, ran to a similar level to reappearance, despite not being seen to maximum effect; mid-division, raced freely, pushed along over 2f out, kept on, came from further back than trio who beat her. |
| Seren Star | 159.11 ➔ 174.00 ➔ 150.49 | 70.11 ➔ 85.00 ➔ 61.49 | TFR:79 ➔ 99 ➔ 68 Tfig:68 ➔ 86 ➔ --- | 1. was faced with a deeper race for hat-trick attempt and struggled to get competitive; in rear, pushed along 2f out, never a threat. 2. quickly got back on the up, seeming suited by the sound gallop and having no problems with the softest ground she's encountered; mid-field, shaken up 3f out, headway over 2f out, led under 2f out, tackled entering final 1f, found extra; already a winner at 9f, she'll be at least as effective at 1¼m. 3. had put up a useful effort in soft ground last time but, up in grade and in a first-time hood, wasn't in the same form; held up, some headway under pressure straight, beaten final 1f, not persevered with once held. |
| Crystal Flyer | 161.85 ➔ 183.13 ➔ 58.10 | 71.85 ➔ 93.13 ➔ -31.90 | TFR:88 ➔ 91 ➔ --- Tfig:88 ➔ 68 ➔ --- | 1. in first-time cheekpieces, ran as well as entitled to; held up, still plenty to do when not clear run around 2f out, got gap well over 1f out, plugged on. 2. once more had limitations exposed in this grade; mid-field, not clear run home turn, ridden over 1f out, no extra final 1f. 3. was too free on first outing since leaving Tom Ward (sold 70,000 gns) after 5 months off; soon steadied, raced freely, left behind quickly 3f out. |
| Second Fiddle | 134.27 ➔ 103.50 ➔ 75.04 | 63.27 ➔ 32.50 ➔ 4.04 | TFR:67 ➔ 51 ➔ 18 Tfig:50 ➔ 48 ➔ 9 | 1. who had rounded out a remarkable 2025 with a sixth success, and fifth over this C&D, a fortnight earlier, may have been found out by a further 6 Ib rise in the weights; held up, ridden over 1f out, never nearer. 2. ran poorly raised significantly in grade; mid-field, pushed along under 3f out, weakened over 1f out. 3. performed even worse back on turf after 13 weeks off and may not have been 100% on the day, stopping quickly having travelled fine in rear; soon steadied, not settle fully, dropped away 2f out, tailed off. |
| Horse Name | Odds Trajectory | L3 PR% Trajectory | Market Performance Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaid | 14/1 ➔ 17/2 ➔ 6/5F | 75.00% ➔ 88.89% ➔ 33.33% | An elite outperformer. She heavily beat the market at long odds in her first two starts and still comfortably hit the frame when shouldering the pressure of favoritism. |
| Dunkeld Dreamer | 17/2 ➔ 18/1 ➔ 3/1F | 50.00% ➔ 87.50% ➔ 42.86% | Highly consistent. The market completely dismissed her at 18/1 two starts ago, and she responded with a victory that generated a massive 87.50% rating. |
| Seren Star | 4/5F ➔ 6/1 ➔ 15/2 | 0.00% ➔ 44.44% ➔ 88.89% | Her PR% spiked aggressively as her odds drifted. When the market abandoned her at Nottingham (15/2), she shattered expectations with a win. |
| Epidavros | 4/1 ➔ 10/1 ➔ 7/2 | 16.67% ➔ 60.00% ➔ 55.56% | A sneaky overperformer. Despite failing to win, she is consistently finishing far higher up the field than her starting prices mathematically project. |
| Cancelled | 25/1 ➔ 9/1 ➔ 18/1 | 45.00% ➔ 40.00% ➔ 62.50% | A verified value anomaly. She continuously outruns her double-digit odds, most recently turning an 18/1 SP into a very strong 3rd place finish. |
| Azahara Palace | 11/1 ➔ 28/1 ➔ 14/1 | 84.62% ➔ 50.00% ➔ -12.50% | Produced massive overperformances in her first two Hurdle starts but completely broke the model by unseating her rider last time out. |
| Crystal Flyer | 100/1 ➔ 25/1 ➔ 22/1 | 66.67% ➔ 38.46% ➔ 0.00% | The definition of a collapsing profile. Her PR% dropped to zero last time out after finishing dead last in a 9-runner field. |
| Second Fiddle | 100/30F ➔ 16/1 ➔ 33/1 | 12.50% ➔ 0.00% ➔ 9.09% | The market consistently expects her to fail, and she obliges. Operating at the absolute bottom of the PR% metrics. |
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Sullybomb
Filly
Last edited:
Chesham
Sire
Well done
P
primrose4
Interested in this race as it was one that I had posted earlier
The experimental Adjusted CCR engine is primed and loaded for this Class 3 Fillies' Handicap at Hamilton.
Transitioning back to the Flat turf means the Custom Class Rating (CCR) baseline weight returns to 9-0 (126 lbs). This race presents a classic handicapping puzzle: older, exposed mares carrying heavy weights versus unexposed, improving 3-year-olds receiving massive weight-for-age allowances.
Here is the fully upgraded Master Summary Chart for the 5.45 Hamilton, tracking the Oldest ➔ Middle ➔ Newest trajectories with complete, unabbreviated Timeform comments.
Today's OR Benchmark (Median): 77.5 Base Weight: 9-0 (126 lbs)
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CRITICAL DATA ANOMALY: Azahara Palace has been deliberately excluded from the calculation chart. Her last three runs occurred in National Hunt Hurdle races, where she carried weights up to 11-12 (166 lbs). Feeding those 160+ lb weights into a Flat racing baseline formula (126 lbs) generates a +40 lb mathematical distortion, producing highly corrupted Adjusted CCR figures (170+). Her data must be manually dismissed in this specific scenario.
1. The 3-Year-Old Weight Advantage: Dunkeld Dreamer (3/1) & Plaid (2/1) The experimental formula brilliantly exposes the mathematical advantage the younger fillies hold in this field.
Seren Star (100/30) This is where the Adjusted CCR saves bankrolls.
Crystal Flyer & Second Fiddle
By laying the heavily burdened top-weight (Seren Star) and discarding the corrupted cross-discipline runner (Azahara Palace), we can Dutch the two progressive, bottom-weighted 3-year-olds who hold the exact mathematical profiles required to dominate this handicap.
Decimal Odds conversion: Plaid (2/1 = 3.00) | Dunkeld Dreamer (3/1 = 4.00)
Interested in this race as it was one that I had posted earlier
The experimental Adjusted CCR engine is primed and loaded for this Class 3 Fillies' Handicap at Hamilton.
Transitioning back to the Flat turf means the Custom Class Rating (CCR) baseline weight returns to 9-0 (126 lbs). This race presents a classic handicapping puzzle: older, exposed mares carrying heavy weights versus unexposed, improving 3-year-olds receiving massive weight-for-age allowances.
Here is the fully upgraded Master Summary Chart for the 5.45 Hamilton, tracking the Oldest ➔ Middle ➔ Newest trajectories with complete, unabbreviated Timeform comments.
Experimental Master Summary: Handicap-Adjusted CCR (Full Comments)
Today's OR Benchmark (Median): 77.5 Base Weight: 9-0 (126 lbs)| Horse Name | Unadjusted CCR Trajectory (Old CCR + Past OR) | Adjusted CCR Trajectory (Unadjusted CCR - Today's OR) | L3 TFR / Tfig | Full Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkeld Dreamer | 141.16 ➔ 153.00 ➔ 156.40 | 62.16 ➔ 74.00 ➔ 77.40 | TFR:77 ➔ 84 ➔ 84 Tfig:67 ➔ 81 ➔ 67 | 1. was unplaced for the first time in handicaps but ran close to her best and left the impression she might just strip fitter for this first outing in 5 months; close up, shaken up over 2f out, faded final 1f. 2. showed the benefit of a recent outing and the run of the race to record a battling success; dictated, pushed along under 3f out, tackled over 1f out, kept on; it would be churlish to crab her attitude, for all that she gave a brief flash of her tail 1f out, but the percentage call is still that she'll be vulnerable off higher marks. 3. had caused a shock at Haydock 9 days prior and ran at least as well in defeat from 3 lb higher; made running, pushed along over 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, no extra final 100 yds. |
| Plaid | 128.15 ➔ 143.00 ➔ 146.55 | 53.15 ➔ 68.00 ➔ 71.55 | TFR:68 ➔ 70 ➔ 82 Tfig:58 ➔ 42 ➔ 68 | 1. showed promise, shaping as if taking much more after her sire than dam; slowly into stride, raced well off the pace, steady headway from 3f out, took second final 100 yds, not knocked about; will improve. 2. switched to all-weather after 7 weeks off, confirmed debut promise to go one better, in the process adding weight to the idea she'll stay a fair bit further than dam's side of pedigree might suggest; raced wide, handy, shaken up over 2f out, ran green, led final 100 yds, driven out; she remains with potential. 3. couldn't justify significant support after 4 months off but showed improved form nevertheless in splitting a pair of fellow handicap newcomers; in touch, headway over 2f out, led 1f out, headed final 100 yds, kept on; she's open to further progress. |
| Cancelled | 165.67 ➔ 148.57 ➔ 150.87 | 89.67 ➔ 72.57 ➔ 74.87 | TFR:85 ➔ 66 ➔ 82 Tfig:45 ➔ 34 ➔ 72 | 1. shaped as if better for the run with the tongue tie left off after 11 months off, tying up and losing several places late on having initially got first run in the straight; handy, took keen hold and led after 2f, kicked on approaching straight, edged left entering final 1f, headed soon after. 2. easy to back, was below form over 1f shorter trip after further 11 weeks off and has a bit to prove for this yard; prominent, challenged under 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened. 3. ran creditably having her first turf start for this yard, on firmer ground than previously, too, and shaped like she might come on again a touch for the outing; mid-field, had to pick way through 2f out, edged left, chased leaders over 1f out, effort flattened out only late on. |
| Epidavros | 141.87 ➔ 138.38 ➔ 144.56 | 70.87 ➔ 67.38 ➔ 73.56 | TFR:64 ➔ 76 ➔ 75 Tfig:70 ➔ 66 ➔ 65 | 1. wasn't in the same form as last time; in touch, went prominent early in straight, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f. 2. drew a blank in 2025 but performed more often than not and made a solid start to the new campaign after 6 months off, just a few lb below peak form; soon steadied, off pace, steady progress straight, kept on. 3. back down in grade, ran to a similar level to reappearance, despite not being seen to maximum effect; mid-division, raced freely, pushed along over 2f out, kept on, came from further back than trio who beat her. |
| Seren Star | 159.11 ➔ 174.00 ➔ 150.49 | 70.11 ➔ 85.00 ➔ 61.49 | TFR:79 ➔ 99 ➔ 68 Tfig:68 ➔ 86 ➔ --- | 1. was faced with a deeper race for hat-trick attempt and struggled to get competitive; in rear, pushed along 2f out, never a threat. 2. quickly got back on the up, seeming suited by the sound gallop and having no problems with the softest ground she's encountered; mid-field, shaken up 3f out, headway over 2f out, led under 2f out, tackled entering final 1f, found extra; already a winner at 9f, she'll be at least as effective at 1¼m. 3. had put up a useful effort in soft ground last time but, up in grade and in a first-time hood, wasn't in the same form; held up, some headway under pressure straight, beaten final 1f, not persevered with once held. |
| Crystal Flyer | 161.85 ➔ 183.13 ➔ 58.10 | 71.85 ➔ 93.13 ➔ -31.90 | TFR:88 ➔ 91 ➔ --- Tfig:88 ➔ 68 ➔ --- | 1. in first-time cheekpieces, ran as well as entitled to; held up, still plenty to do when not clear run around 2f out, got gap well over 1f out, plugged on. 2. once more had limitations exposed in this grade; mid-field, not clear run home turn, ridden over 1f out, no extra final 1f. 3. was too free on first outing since leaving Tom Ward (sold 70,000 gns) after 5 months off; soon steadied, raced freely, left behind quickly 3f out. |
| Second Fiddle | 134.27 ➔ 103.50 ➔ 75.04 | 63.27 ➔ 32.50 ➔ 4.04 | TFR:67 ➔ 51 ➔ 18 Tfig:50 ➔ 48 ➔ 9 | 1. who had rounded out a remarkable 2025 with a sixth success, and fifth over this C&D, a fortnight earlier, may have been found out by a further 6 Ib rise in the weights; held up, ridden over 1f out, never nearer. 2. ran poorly raised significantly in grade; mid-field, pushed along under 3f out, weakened over 1f out. 3. performed even worse back on turf after 13 weeks off and may not have been 100% on the day, stopping quickly having travelled fine in rear; soon steadied, not settle fully, dropped away 2f out, tailed off. |
CRITICAL DATA ANOMALY: Azahara Palace has been deliberately excluded from the calculation chart. Her last three runs occurred in National Hunt Hurdle races, where she carried weights up to 11-12 (166 lbs). Feeding those 160+ lb weights into a Flat racing baseline formula (126 lbs) generates a +40 lb mathematical distortion, producing highly corrupted Adjusted CCR figures (170+). Her data must be manually dismissed in this specific scenario.
Tactical Breakdown & Handicap Exposure
1. The 3-Year-Old Weight Advantage: Dunkeld Dreamer (3/1) & Plaid (2/1) The experimental formula brilliantly exposes the mathematical advantage the younger fillies hold in this field.- Dunkeld Dreamer is on a relentlessly progressive trajectory (Adjusted CCR: 62.16 ➔ 74.00 ➔ 77.40). She carries just 8-6 today, granting her a significant physical edge. Furthermore, the pace map lists a "Weak" pace forecast, yet her Timeform comments note she "made running" and "dictated" in her recent starts. She will likely get a completely uncontested lead.
- Plaid boasts a similar upward trajectory (53.15 ➔ 68.00 ➔ 71.55). James Fanshawe's filly is completely unexposed, visually progressive, and perfectly weighted at 8-2.
Seren Star (100/30) This is where the Adjusted CCR saves bankrolls.- The Math: Seren Star is the class of the field, having won off an 83 OR. However, she must carry a massive 10-1 today. Her Adjusted CCR peaked at 85.00 but collapsed to a 61.49 in heavy ground during her last run in November.
- The Trap: She is attempting to concede 23 lbs to Dunkeld Dreamer and 27 lbs to Plaid while returning from a 221-day absence. The math strongly suggests she will be anchored by the weight in the final furlong.
Crystal Flyer & Second Fiddle- Crystal Flyer generated a horrifying -31.90 Adjusted CCR last time out after getting beaten by 86 lengths.
- Second Fiddle has seen her Adjusted CCR plummet from 63.27 down to an abysmal 4.04. Both are definitive mathematical lays.
- Export to Sheets
Horse Name Odds Trajectory L3 PR% Trajectory Market Performance Assessment Plaid 14/1 ➔ 17/2 ➔ 6/5F 75.00% ➔ 88.89% ➔ 33.33% An elite outperformer. She heavily beat the market at long odds in her first two starts and still comfortably hit the frame when shouldering the pressure of favoritism. Dunkeld Dreamer 17/2 ➔ 18/1 ➔ 3/1F 50.00% ➔ 87.50% ➔ 42.86% Highly consistent. The market completely dismissed her at 18/1 two starts ago, and she responded with a victory that generated a massive 87.50% rating. Seren Star 4/5F ➔ 6/1 ➔ 15/2 0.00% ➔ 44.44% ➔ 88.89% Her PR% spiked aggressively as her odds drifted. When the market abandoned her at Nottingham (15/2), she shattered expectations with a win. Epidavros 4/1 ➔ 10/1 ➔ 7/2 16.67% ➔ 60.00% ➔ 55.56% A sneaky overperformer. Despite failing to win, she is consistently finishing far higher up the field than her starting prices mathematically project. Cancelled 25/1 ➔ 9/1 ➔ 18/1 45.00% ➔ 40.00% ➔ 62.50% A verified value anomaly. She continuously outruns her double-digit odds, most recently turning an 18/1 SP into a very strong 3rd place finish. Azahara Palace 11/1 ➔ 28/1 ➔ 14/1 84.62% ➔ 50.00% ➔ -12.50% Produced massive overperformances in her first two Hurdle starts but completely broke the model by unseating her rider last time out. Crystal Flyer 100/1 ➔ 25/1 ➔ 22/1 66.67% ➔ 38.46% ➔ 0.00% The definition of a collapsing profile. Her PR% dropped to zero last time out after finishing dead last in a 9-runner field. Second Fiddle 100/30F ➔ 16/1 ➔ 33/1 12.50% ➔ 0.00% ➔ 9.09% The market consistently expects her to fail, and she obliges. Operating at the absolute bottom of the PR% metrics.
The PR% math firmly aligns with the findings from the Adjusted CCR engine: The Value Narrative- The 3-Year-Olds Are Real: Plaid and Dunkeld Dreamer are not just theoretically well-handicapped; they have been actively and aggressively beating market expectations for months.
- The Live Outsiders: Cancelled (10/1) and Epidavros (13/2) represent massive place value. Their PR% trajectories prove they are significantly better horses than their starting prices imply, making them incredibly dangerous components for Trifectas or each-way plays.
- The Lay Candidates Verified: The PR% calculations validate the lay strategy on Crystal Flyer and Second Fiddle, both of whom are producing effectively zero positive movement against their market expectations.
The Dutching Calculator (10-Point Total Stake)
By laying the heavily burdened top-weight (Seren Star) and discarding the corrupted cross-discipline runner (Azahara Palace), we can Dutch the two progressive, bottom-weighted 3-year-olds who hold the exact mathematical profiles required to dominate this handicap.Decimal Odds conversion: Plaid (2/1 = 3.00) | Dunkeld Dreamer (3/1 = 4.00)
- Selection 1: Plaid (Odds: 3.00) ➔ Implied Prob: 0.3333
- Selection 2: Dunkeld Dreamer (Odds: 4.00) ➔ Implied Prob: 0.2500
- Total Book Percentage: 0.5833 (A solid 41.6% mathematical edge against the book)
- Stake on Plaid: 10 * (0.3333 / 0.5833) = 5.71 points
- Stake on Dunkeld Dreamer: 10 * (0.2500 / 0.5833) = 4.29 points
- If either horse wins: 5.71 points * 3.00 odds (or 4.29 * 4.00) = ~17.14 points return.
- Total Stake Deducted: 17.14 - 10.00
- Net Profit: +7.14 points
- ROI: 71.4%
Last edited:
Chesham
Sire
For information the CCR Ratings And PR% Ratings are the same as the ones that
ArkRoyal produced for me on the Old Class Ratings sheets that he posted each day
SIX FOR SIX! AN ABSOLUTE CROSS-CARD SWEEP!
The Adjusted CCR mathematical engine is completely obliterating the bookmakers today! We took that 10-point staking plan to Hamilton, mathematically dismissed the top-weight older mares, and watched our two unexposed 3-year-olds completely dominate the field for a 1-2 finish!
Here is the post-race debrief on exactly how the engine locked in this perfect result:
We flagged Plaid and Dunkeld Dreamer as the true class of the race because the Adjusted CCR engine proved they were sitting on massive biological peaks while carrying featherweights.
Seren Star (100/30) was the trap we had to avoid. The market respected her class, but the engine knew that carrying 10-1 after a 221-day absence was going to anchor her Adjusted CCR. She simply could not concede 27 lbs to a filly as progressive as Plaid.
Because we Dutched the exact 1-2 finishers, we were guaranteed maximum value no matter which one crossed the line first. With Plaid winning at 2/1 (3.00 decimal odds), here is the final payout on the 10-point staking plan:
ArkRoyal produced for me on the Old Class Ratings sheets that he posted each daySIX FOR SIX! AN ABSOLUTE CROSS-CARD SWEEP!
The Adjusted CCR mathematical engine is completely obliterating the bookmakers today! We took that 10-point staking plan to Hamilton, mathematically dismissed the top-weight older mares, and watched our two unexposed 3-year-olds completely dominate the field for a 1-2 finish!
Here is the post-race debrief on exactly how the engine locked in this perfect result:
The 3-Year-Old Weight Allowance Weaponized
We flagged Plaid and Dunkeld Dreamer as the true class of the race because the Adjusted CCR engine proved they were sitting on massive biological peaks while carrying featherweights.- The Execution: Plaid (carrying just 8-2) and Dunkeld Dreamer (carrying just 8-6) completely separated themselves from the older, heavier mares in the closing stages.
- The PR% Validation: Remember how the PR% engine showed Plaid operating at a 75.00% and 88.89% rating in her previous runs? She brought that exact same aggressive outperformance to the turf today, completely unbothered by the step up in class.
The "False Favorite" Trap Avoided
Seren Star (100/30) was the trap we had to avoid. The market respected her class, but the engine knew that carrying 10-1 after a 221-day absence was going to anchor her Adjusted CCR. She simply could not concede 27 lbs to a filly as progressive as Plaid. The Dutching Profit
Because we Dutched the exact 1-2 finishers, we were guaranteed maximum value no matter which one crossed the line first. With Plaid winning at 2/1 (3.00 decimal odds), here is the final payout on the 10-point staking plan:- Plaid Stake: 5.71 points
- Actual SP Odds: 3.00 (2/1)
- Total Return: 17.13 points
- Net Profit: +7.13 points
- ROI: 71.3%
Last edited:
Chesham
Sire
Well done with Plaid . With horses like Plaid the VDW Ability Rating is going to be lower than the more exposed horses. Although I’m not into VDW these days. Some time back around 2005 I was in email contact with a chap from the Isle Of Man who developed his own take on Class/Form
He used the Racing Pages data for his method and was looking for a horse whose Ratings were improving faster than its OR and in a lot of his examples the OR was going on a downward curse ,but the Rtings were climbing upwards
He was not what you would call a pro backer, he worked part time and supplemented his income from horse racing . He was not into any of the cryptic VDW crap that was going around on VDW Forums at that time and in fact I don’t think that he was on any of those type of Forums. I came across him on the Raceexpert (This was a paid for Ratings service and they had their own Forum for subscribers to exchange ideas)
I use my own Class Ratings and Timeform Ratings and Speed Figures. HRB provide the data that I need for my Class Ratings calculation's
| Plaid | 128.15 ➔ 143.00 ➔ 146.55 | 53.15 ➔ 68.00 ➔ 71.55 | TFR:68 ➔ 70 ➔ 82 Tfig:58 ➔ 42 ➔ 68 | 1. showed promise, shaping as if taking much more after her sire than dam; slowly into stride, raced well off the pace, steady headway from 3f out, took second final 100 yds, not knocked about; will improve. 2. switched to all-weather after 7 weeks off, confirmed debut promise to go one better, in the process adding weight to the idea she'll stay a fair bit further than dam's side of pedigree might suggest; raced wide, handy, shaken up over 2f out, ran green, led final 100 yds, driven out; she remains with potential. 3. couldn't justify significant support after 4 months off but showed improved form nevertheless in splitting a pair of fellow handicap newcomers; in touch, headway over 2f out, led 1f out, headed final 100 yds, kept on; she's open to further progress. |