Today's bets
- Thread starter primrose4
- Start date
Last night I noted three horses worth backing at Warwick:-
330 Bobbi's Beauty
As much as anything it is the only horse in this race that seems
to be maintaining its form, She is for Me is showing declining
form and seems to have gone backwards. Irish Chorus finished
last of three in a recent race. Ephinine is no more than modest.
This is not a betting race though since the price of Bobbi's Beauty
has fallen so much that any bettor would be playing into the hands
of the layers. 5/1 was available early this Morning, current price 11/4
and still coming in.
4.10 Super Survivor (n b)
At around 5/1 this horse really does represent value. Super Survivor has
been running well against some good sorts who have gone on to frank the
form. The horse does not really have to show any degree of improvement
to win this race.
4.48 House of Hapsburg (nap)
There are two horses in this race who have the abiiity to win this race besides
Hapsburg. Mumford's Magic is only 1 point behind House of Hapsburg in the
ratings. As with Bobbi's Beauty though in the earlier race, the price of Mumford's
Magic has contracted too much to make it of interest. A case could be made for
Jubilant. This horse has not been running against horses of the ability of the Big
Two though.
The only reason that House of Hapsburg is the selection over Mumford's Magic
is because it has consistently attracted more market support than the latter.
Perhaps not the best of reasons.
330 Bobbi's Beauty
As much as anything it is the only horse in this race that seems
to be maintaining its form, She is for Me is showing declining
form and seems to have gone backwards. Irish Chorus finished
last of three in a recent race. Ephinine is no more than modest.
This is not a betting race though since the price of Bobbi's Beauty
has fallen so much that any bettor would be playing into the hands
of the layers. 5/1 was available early this Morning, current price 11/4
and still coming in.
4.10 Super Survivor (n b)
At around 5/1 this horse really does represent value. Super Survivor has
been running well against some good sorts who have gone on to frank the
form. The horse does not really have to show any degree of improvement
to win this race.
4.48 House of Hapsburg (nap)
There are two horses in this race who have the abiiity to win this race besides
Hapsburg. Mumford's Magic is only 1 point behind House of Hapsburg in the
ratings. As with Bobbi's Beauty though in the earlier race, the price of Mumford's
Magic has contracted too much to make it of interest. A case could be made for
Jubilant. This horse has not been running against horses of the ability of the Big
Two though.
The only reason that House of Hapsburg is the selection over Mumford's Magic
is because it has consistently attracted more market support than the latter.
Perhaps not the best of reasons.
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Michael231
Gelding
Got the same 3 with my contender ratings hope they do well
P
primrose4
Although the first one I have as 2nd with the class and rating so not top but we know how the top rated of anything performs.
Although the first one I have as 2nd with the class and rating so not top but we know how the top rated of anything performs.
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Michael231
Gelding
Well 2 from 3 is okay would have been a profit, but I decided to do a treble to small stakes but i'm sure
P
primrose4 did the singles for a profit
I have placed today's bets and they both go in the same race
at Taunton.- When anaylysing the 3.10 I could not split them.
Tilehurst @ 10/1 seems to have the best characteristics of the
winner of the race but Arctic Voyage at an even bigger 18/1 was
crying out to be used as a saver bet.
at Taunton.- When anaylysing the 3.10 I could not split them.
Tilehurst @ 10/1 seems to have the best characteristics of the
winner of the race but Arctic Voyage at an even bigger 18/1 was
crying out to be used as a saver bet.
Michael231
Gelding
unlucky with Tilehurst
P
primrose4
I have gone for three horses today:-
2.30 at Hereford Desperaux
Desperaux has really drifted out to a backable price. I thought that last
night's price of 2/1 was too stingy to get involved but at 100/30 it looks
a value bet.
6.00 at Kempton Lion of Mali
Another drifter from the p.m. price. Lion of Mali is best handicapped upon ratings
but there is a question mark concerning the horse's Class against today's opposition.
Keep an eye out for Dublin Boy who looks a potential improver.
6.30 at Kempton Apiarist
Both Serengeti and Sarah's Star have work to do to trouble Apiarist. At 5/1 I would
make this the best bet of the day.
2.30 at Hereford Desperaux
Desperaux has really drifted out to a backable price. I thought that last
night's price of 2/1 was too stingy to get involved but at 100/30 it looks
a value bet.
6.00 at Kempton Lion of Mali
Another drifter from the p.m. price. Lion of Mali is best handicapped upon ratings
but there is a question mark concerning the horse's Class against today's opposition.
Keep an eye out for Dublin Boy who looks a potential improver.
6.30 at Kempton Apiarist
Both Serengeti and Sarah's Star have work to do to trouble Apiarist. At 5/1 I would
make this the best bet of the day.
Michael231
Gelding
They look good to me, as I have 2 of them.
Not Lion of Mali though, good luck with them
Not Lion of Mali though, good luck with them
I am amazed sometimes at just how out of sync that the odds compilers
are by comparison with the actual prices available. One of the best examples
is in the 4.57 at Wincanton today. Last night Celtic Art was shown as being
the forecast 7/2 favourite in the Racing Post. Bookmakers picked up on this
because there was almost a universal price of 4/1 apart from Paddy Power
who were even shorter.
In the event the a.m. price is a quite incredible 12/1. The price might even
have gone out further than this in the earliest exchanges. I have mentioned
Celtic Art because it is the horse that I have backed in this race, fortunately
at the proper price of 12/1..
The other race where I was going to place a bet was in the 4.40 at Kempton.
Last night bookmakers were universal that Port Laureate was a 13/2 chance
for this race. In the event the opening a.m. price is a skinny 100/30 amongst
almost all layers. So clearly no bet at those odds.
are by comparison with the actual prices available. One of the best examples
is in the 4.57 at Wincanton today. Last night Celtic Art was shown as being
the forecast 7/2 favourite in the Racing Post. Bookmakers picked up on this
because there was almost a universal price of 4/1 apart from Paddy Power
who were even shorter.
In the event the a.m. price is a quite incredible 12/1. The price might even
have gone out further than this in the earliest exchanges. I have mentioned
Celtic Art because it is the horse that I have backed in this race, fortunately
at the proper price of 12/1..
The other race where I was going to place a bet was in the 4.40 at Kempton.
Last night bookmakers were universal that Port Laureate was a 13/2 chance
for this race. In the event the opening a.m. price is a skinny 100/30 amongst
almost all layers. So clearly no bet at those odds.
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Chesham
Sire
Hi
P
primrose4
Looked at this race last night and CA was 7/2 strange did not expect it to drift that much
This is the full post
the 4.57 Wincanton! This 2m 4f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle on Good ground is an exceptional puzzle.
I’ve integrated the Form Boost, crunched the Class Trajectories, and pulled every single RaceIQ metric—right down to the stride frequencies and envelope times.
Memory Check: I ran the field looking for our Outstanding Tactical Value (
) profile—a closer with elite jumping and an extreme >112% Finishing Speed. While no one quite hit that explosive >112% threshold today, we do have some absolute biomechanical weapons in this field that the market is mispricing.
As a National Hunt Hurdle, the Baseline Weight is 11-0 (154 lbs).
The Complete Package: Valadon (5/1)
The Elite Selection: Valadon (5/1)
He is the bet of the race. His RaceIQ metrics are off the charts. Gaining +10.15L jumping with a 100% Positive Jump rate and only -1.08 mph speed lost means he is hurdling with absolute precision. Tracking the solid pace set by Bourbali, his flawless technique will save him massive amounts of energy for the finish.
The Class/Form Boost Wildcard: Last Kingdom (20/1)
If you want an Each-Way swing, this is it. He has pulled up twice, but his Irish form (128.41 CCR) is superior to this field, and the Timeform "Form Boost" confirms it. If he finally clicks for Faye Bramley, 20/1 is a ridiculous price on raw class alone.
The Statistical Lay: Celtic Art (7/2)
A fantastic Lay. He bled -5.19L at his hurdles last time out with an abysmal 11.11% Positive Jump rate and a 2.21s recovery time. He will burn far too much energy trying to maintain his prominent position against solid jumpers.
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(Note: PRB² is calculated from LTO finishing position relative to field size. Tfig represents the highest Timeform Speed Figure in the last 3 runs).
Looked at this race last night and CA was 7/2 strange did not expect it to drift that much
This is the full post
the 4.57 Wincanton! This 2m 4f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle on Good ground is an exceptional puzzle.
I’ve integrated the Form Boost, crunched the Class Trajectories, and pulled every single RaceIQ metric—right down to the stride frequencies and envelope times.
Memory Check: I ran the field looking for our Outstanding Tactical Value (
) profile—a closer with elite jumping and an extreme >112% Finishing Speed. While no one quite hit that explosive >112% threshold today, we do have some absolute biomechanical weapons in this field that the market is mispricing.As a National Hunt Hurdle, the Baseline Weight is 11-0 (154 lbs).
1. The Pace Map: The Analiese Blueprint
Running the Start Position (IP) scan reveals a very honest, true-run race:- Bourbali (FR: 21): A dedicated, hard-wired front-runner. He "led at a good gallop" LTO and will take them along here.
- Celtic Art (FR: 11, P: 13): Wants to be on the sharp end and will press Bourbali.
- Moveit Like Minnie (P: 11, TC: 10): Will sit prominent, stalking the leading pair.
- The Verdict: We have a solid, contested pace, but not a suicidal meltdown. This setup perfectly favors horses in the mid-division who jump efficiently and conserve energy for the straight.
2. Custom Class Ratings (CCR) & The "Form Boost"
3. The Complete RaceIQ Biomechanical Deep Dive
This is where the race is won and lost. Using all the granular tracking metrics, the jumping profiles clearly separate the contenders from the pretenders.The Complete Package: Valadon (5/1)
- Jump Index: 8.4/10 | Lengths Gained Jumping: +10.15L (Elite)
- Top Speed: 35.91 mph | Finishing Speed % (FSP): 102.21%
- Air Mechanics: Entry Speed 28.93 mph → Speed Lost just -1.08 mph (Best in race) → Time in Envelope 4.73s →Exit Speed 28.97 mph.
- Efficiency: Recovery Time 0.88s | Positive Jump 100.00%.
- Stride Data: Freq (1.95 Min / 2.04 Avg / 2.27 Max) | Length (5.24m Min / 6.26m Avg / 7.55m Max).
- The Synergy: He is biomechanically flawless. He attacks his hurdles, loses barely 1 mph in the air, and recovers in under a second. This +10.15L advantage makes a mockery of his 115 Official Rating.
- Jump Index: 7.1/10 | Lengths Gained Jumping: +4.49L
- Top Speed: 33.61 mph | FSP: 100.60%
- Air Mechanics: Entry 28.89 mph → Speed Lost -2.76 mph → Time in Env 5.00s → Exit 27.66 mph.
- Efficiency: Recovery Time 1.55s | Positive Jump 90.91%.
- Stride Data: Freq (1.86 / 1.99 / 2.12) | Length (5.89m / 6.70m / 7.50m).
- The Synergy: A massive, long-striding horse (6.70m average length) who clears his hurdles cleanly (+4.49L, 90.91% positive). He will sit beautifully off Bourbali's pace.
- RaceIQ Red Flags: LTO, he posted a 7.1/10 Jump Index but lost -5.19L in the air. His Speed Lost was a terrible -3.70 mph, his Time in Envelope was a sluggish 4.84s, and his Recovery Time was a grinding 2.21s. Most damningly, his Positive Jump % was just 11.11%.
- The Synergy: You cannot back a 7/2 favorite who bleeds over 5 lengths jumping and takes 2.2 seconds to recover his stride after every hurdle.
4. Final RaceIQ Tactical Blueprint
The Elite Selection: Valadon (5/1)
He is the bet of the race. His RaceIQ metrics are off the charts. Gaining +10.15L jumping with a 100% Positive Jump rate and only -1.08 mph speed lost means he is hurdling with absolute precision. Tracking the solid pace set by Bourbali, his flawless technique will save him massive amounts of energy for the finish.The Class/Form Boost Wildcard: Last Kingdom (20/1) 
If you want an Each-Way swing, this is it. He has pulled up twice, but his Irish form (128.41 CCR) is superior to this field, and the Timeform "Form Boost" confirms it. If he finally clicks for Faye Bramley, 20/1 is a ridiculous price on raw class alone.The Statistical Lay: Celtic Art (7/2) 
A fantastic Lay. He bled -5.19L at his hurdles last time out with an abysmal 11.11% Positive Jump rate and a 2.21s recovery time. He will burn far too much energy trying to maintain his prominent position against solid jumpers.Complete Summary Table
| Horse Name | Avg CCR | Peak LTO Class Rtg | Peak 3-Run TFR | Tfig | Avg PR% | PBR 2 (PRB²) | Primary IP Style | Timeform Insight | Current Odds |
| Valadon | 116.50 | 123.00 | 116 | 92 | 63.40% | 0.83 | Tracked / Mid | First-time tongue strap was the catalyst | 5/1 |
| Moveit Like Minnie | 105.30 | 101.24 | 111 | 85 | 52.10% | 0.73 | Prominent (11) | Ran as well as he has this season LTO | 4/1 |
| Ambion View | 109.40 | 108.64 | 115 | 88 | 58.50% | 0.72 | Tracked / Mid | Returned to form, doesn't do much wrong | 5/1 |
| Celtic Art | 108.50 | 88.20 | 121 | 94 | 51.20% | 0.28 | Prominent / Front | Found run of good form coming to a halt | 7/2 F |
| Swingin Safari | 101.20 | 98.40 | 116 | 83 | 47.60% | 0.50 | Tracked / Prom | Strong-galloping type, capable of better | 6/1 |
| Crebilly | 112.10 | PU (N/A) | 119 | 97 | 42.80% | 0.00 | Mid-Division (7) | Sweating, again failed to show his form | 8/1 |
| Bourbali | 110.80 | 102.50 | 124 | 98 | 46.70% | 0.44 | Front Runner (21) | Forcing tactics took their toll LTO | 8/1 |
| Last Kingdom | 128.41 | PU (N/A) | 125 | 105 | 22.30% | 0.00 | Mid-Division | FORM BOOST: Better judged on past form | 20/1 |
(Note: PRB² is calculated from LTO finishing position relative to field size. Tfig represents the highest Timeform Speed Figure in the last 3 runs).
A first posting from me for this new Flat season.
Using the same method that did well before July
of last season, I have found two horses at Nottingham
that are both worth backing:-
4.25 Layla Liz @ 15/2
5.25 Just an Hour @ 3/1
The owners of Layla Liz should have been informed that
this is not a good name for a successful racehorse.
Using the same method that did well before July
of last season, I have found two horses at Nottingham
that are both worth backing:-
4.25 Layla Liz @ 15/2
5.25 Just an Hour @ 3/1
The owners of Layla Liz should have been informed that
this is not a good name for a successful racehorse.
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