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Today's bets

I have backed two horses today at Windsor:-

3.25 Wispa
On ratings Wispa comes out ahead of both Westridge
and Candyman Stan.

4.00 Dutch Finale (nap)
This race maybe a little closer since Safari Dream is worthy
of much inspection. Safari Dream has improved beyond
Dutch Finale upon Official Ratings but is carrying 6lbs more
than LTO whilst Dutch Finale is carrying 6lbs less.
Neither Flying Seagull nor High On Hope seem to possess
the form to worry the Big Two.
 
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primrose4 said:
I have backed two horses today at Windsor:-

3.25 Wispa
On ratings Wispa comes out ahead of both Westridge
and Candyman Stan.

4.00 Dutch Finale (nap)
This race maybe a little closer since Safari Dream is worthy
of much inspection. Safari Dream has improved beyond
Dutch Finale upon Official Ratings but is carrying 6lbs more
than LTO whilst Dutch Finale is carrying 6lbs less.
Neither Flying Seagull nor High On Hope seem to possess
the form to worry the Big Two.
Click to expand...
Impressive results P primrose4
 
I think that the current racing programme still seems to be feeling the effects
of Royal Ascot with some really low grade races being put forward for general
consumption. For this reason I have had to go into Ireland today for my bet.
I have concentrated upon the 2.25 at The Curragh.
The two that I have focused upon are Vespertilio and Songhai. The 7.00 at Doncaster
last night showed that it is not always a bad thing to be dropped in the Official Ratings.
Both of the above named are marginal Official Rate Droppers which is something that I
normally frown upon. Of the two the Racing Post Rater suggests that Songhai has the better
chance of showing improvement. It could also be significant that of the two Songhai looks to
have achieved more than Vespertilio has to date.
I have backed them both.

Away from the Racing Post I have just looked at another site that I occasionally use.
This site has been much upgraded since I was last there and now appears far more
professional. This site is in favour of Vespertilio in this race since V is regarded as being
a Speedhorse whilst Songhai is seen as being more of a Class and Form horse that may be
lacking in the speed department. The size of the saver upon Vespertilio has been increased..
 
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The 7.15 at Windsor has already been analysed via another
forum header. I have backed two outsiders here in Amazonian
Dream and Zouloa Chief.

The only other race today to pique my interest was the 4.00 at
Pontefract. Almost all horses are showing weight increases from
LTO. Dropping 5 lbs should help Masterclass who I have backed along
with Glendown who the Racing Post Rater believes is capable of running
much better than it has achieved in recent races.
 
Good afternoon all

first post so treat me gently


In the last year Tudhope and O’Meara when combing at Thirsk have a fantastic record 21 runs11 wins 19 placed

got 4 today all appear to have reasonable chances but I’d say forest caper 3.03 looks to be the one with a decent chance
 
Other than Bank Holiday Mondays, Saturday tends to be the only day in which I show
any degree of consistency in my (successful) bets.

1.30 at Haydock
Luna a Inbhr Nis is the horse with the best Top Speed rating of the contenders and for this
reason is the selection,. Racing Post ratings and any advantage with weight carried are very
similar to other contenders such as I'm Next and Dr Cogent.

2.05 at Haydock
This is tougher. I have noticed previously that any rise in Racing Post Ratings from what is
shown today and what has been achieved previously that is greater than 20 points almost
always means that the Race Assessor has exaggerated the improvement that has been shown
between today's rating and a horse's LTO performance. Although this does not always mean
that such highly rated horses can be ignored, it does nean that an improvement of say 32 is
very suspect for a handicapper and that this horse can often be ignored for win purposes.
There is an example in this 2.05 race. Deep Water Bay is showing a Rating for this race of 106,
given that its LTO rating and 2nd LTO ratings were only 80 and 71, I fail to see where the likely
improvement of 26 points or an incredible 32% points in decimal terms is likely to come from.

A much stronger case can be made for Many Men who has come from a much more believable
LTO RPR of 91 to today's 107 and is the selection for the race.

3.23 at Beverley
Cheerleader seems to hold all the aces here. The only other horse that is likely to be in the
hunt in the closing stages is Atomic Moss. Lord Roxby looks held.
 
I have had success in the last couple of days. Hopefully ( at least) one of these
three will pass the post in first place:-
All three are running at Newmarket.

1.50 Regalion @ 9/1
This horse does not quite get the five star treatment since it is lacking by one
point. The odds taken of 9/1 look generous in terms of Regalion lifting this prize.
Perhaps the weakest of the three selections.

3.35 Elwateen @ 12/1
This 3.35 looks a really excellent race inhabited by a large number of Group
horses. Elwatten has been given very tender rides in the final 2 furlongs of
important Group races this season when it became clear that the horse was
unlikely to take the prestigious prize. If the people behind Elwateen believe
that this horse is a serious Group horse then today's easier task will see it
claiming the first prize.

5.20 Master of My Fate @ 6/1
Master of My Fate is the only one of these three selections where the number of
points show an ideal match. In such evenly rated handicaps, it would be wrong
to make Master of My Fate the nap of all three selections since we do not know
in this race which other horses are going to show improvement over what has
already been achieved.
 
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Wierd behaviour from Betfair

I am no longer allowed to use Betfair because they
need something called Account Verification. For some
reason they are insisting that I send them my Passport
(it might be a photocopy request) and something else like a
proper bank statement, and not a photocopy,

The unusual thing here is that I have used Betfair for a number
of years and have never had any problem with posting a bet.
I have never taken part in Forum activities and have never had
any need to contact Betfair direct. The only change in circumstances
is that I have recently moved house. This should have no effect
whatsoever upon my betting activities.
The only marginal difference is that the betting activities have taken
something of a hit because of the house move.
Can anybody shed any light why Betfair seem so eager to close my Account?
 
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primrose4 said:
Wierd behaviour from Betfair

I am no longer allowed to use Betfair because they
need something called Account Verification. For some
reason they are insisting that I send them my Passport
(it might be a photocopy request) and something else like a
proper bank statement, and not a photocopy,

The unusual thing here is that I have used Betfair for a number
of years and have never had any problem with posting a bet.
I have never taken part in Forum activities and have never had
any need to contact Betfair direct. The only change in circumstances
is that I have recently moved house. This should have no effect
whatsoever upon my betting activities.
The only marginal difference is that the betting activities have taken
something of a hit because of the house move.
Can anybody shed any light why Betfair seem so eager to close my Account?
Click to expand...

From what I've read on other forums, is that any change in circumstances, ie: Bank account, different card details, address, country..etc, triggers this sort of response. I can maybe understand passport (KYC check), the bank statement seems a little too much, but evidence of address linked to account details might be their reasoning.
 
After examining the form of the 3.00 at Taunton, I could not help but believe
that at a price of 16/1 that Bluegrass is seriously over-priced.
I have begun to having some success in recent days upon the NH after finding
a method of selection that quickly whittles the race down to a select few contenders
and from there a further method of selection is then employed to find one or two selections
in a particular race.
Bluegrass has come top using this method.
 
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primrose4 said:
After examining the form of the 3.00 at Taunton, I could not help but believe
that at a price of 16/1 that Bluegrass is seriously over-priced.
I have begun to having some success in recent days upon the NH after finding
a method of selection that quickly whittles the race down to a select few contenders
and from there a further method of selection is then employed to find one or two selections
in a particular race.
Bluegrass has come top using this method.
Click to expand...

Excellent piece of work P primrose4
 
I seem to have turned the corner in recent days on the NH.
This is due to changing the manner in which I rate races.
I am not too happy that I delayed placing today's bets until
mid-morning since the prices were significantly higher last
night.

Anyhow, of the four races that I examined there were two definite bets:-

2.58 at Ludlow
Pepe Le Molko
The price on this one has come in from 15/2 to just 4/1. It will be interesting
to see how this horse fares.

3.33 at Ludlow
Dramatic Encore
I certainly missed out on the best prices here since last night a double
digit price was available. Still a win at 7/1 will be acceptable.
 
I have done quite well in recent days upon the NH (famous
last words!), so I might as well reveal the two horses that I have
backed today :-

3.50 at Haydock
Heather Honey @ 5/2

4.35 at Haydock
Lord Punt @ 100/30

When looking at the cards last night I would have made Battalion,
in the 3.40 at Wincanton, my Nap selection. The odds compiler was well out with this
one forecasting a price of 7/2. The early morning prices were 5./2 in
places. When I last looked the price had gone sub 2/1, so it is only really
of interest to those with deep pockets.

One out of two. Not bad.
 
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