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    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

Today's bets

Unlike some other horse racing commentators I have noticed previously
that the name of Eric Bowers is very rarely mentioned anywhere. To be fair
to Bowers I have not run his name through a search engine so he may have
a forum or two all of his own.

Perhaps the possible flaw in the selection policy of Bowers could be the reason
for the lack of interest. The clear failing is that the selection of Bowers are always
likely to be near the head of the weights. The first process in the methodology
gives the top weight the best marks, The second top weight second best top
marks etc. Clearly if you are weighted eighth highest you have a deficiency
to make up already.

Adding the Racing Post forecast odds to the weight rating is a good idea since
weight and forecast odds are often mutually exclusive. It is here that Bowers begins
to put some meat on the bone. The bottom 50% of the combined ratings are now
discounted.

The third element of the Bower ratings are somewhat vague. He speaks about using
ratings exclusive from the Racing Post as the final element of the selection process.
There is some mention of the Daily Mail formcast, but it is clear that this third element
is down to the individual.
I have put my own take on this final element by bringing in the number of tipsters for
each horse as shown upon the Racing Post.

The selection process is quite rapid because the minimum number of runners in a field is 10.
I did believe that this selection process would result in a number of selections being at the
head of affairs, but this may not always be the case since the 2.30 at Huntingdon shows up
as such under Bower ratings :-

Bartholew J 4
Billy Ray 7
Seaborough 10

Here Bartholem J is the clear selection and 13/2 was available when the ratings were put together.

An earlier effort was the 3.00 at Huntingdon. As with the early belief that favourites would dominate
the Bower ratings, this was certainly the case in this race.

Salley Gardens 4
Dynali 6

The ratings suggest that the forecast favourite will beat the forecast second favourite.

Postscript

Salley Gardens did indeed oblige as a winning favourite.
By contrast Bartholew J certainly did not oblige. I hate back-tracking any system or method,
but what became clear when I researched the Bower ratings was that the nearer the top rated
horse was to being the forecast favourite the more likely was the horse to win.
This method of selection is clearly a slow burner. Not one for the people who dream of having
a lavish Christmas.
 
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I have spent a great deal of time this evening in dissecting the 3.10 at Exeter.
On all known ratings there are three horses that look significantly in advance
of the rest of the field. These being Heavey, Macfin and Written in the Sand.

None of the three have started less than third favourite in their last two races.
Indeed Written In the Sand has been favourite in both of its last two runs.
However, Written in the Sand falls down upon two parameters. The opposition
faced by WitS has not been as strong as for the other two contenders. Allied to
this is that WitS also falls down upon race value contested. I do appreciate that
there is a great deal of similarity between these two features.

When examining the two remaining contenders, it becomes clear that Macfin has
carried greater weights against superior opposition than Heavey, So for this reason
I make Macfin my nap of the day. Lets see if Eric Bowers methodology can find
another winner.

Here is the break down for Macfin under the Bowers methodology:-

Macfin 5
Heavey 8
Creative Inertia 9
Writteninthesand 13
Normandy Soldier 14

Blow me, what happened to the 11/4 last night about MacFin? When I made my tour of
the local bookmakers this morning I was dismayed to find that the best price was 9/4.
After a while all the big players were into 15/8.

There was an excellent example of Bowers working this morning upon the 12.30 at Bangor.
It was clear as daylight that the strangely named Yggsdraal was head and shoulders above its
rivals courtesy of Bowers. This one went the opposite way in the Market to Macfin. Last night
7/4 was the commonly quoted price. Against rivals that may have improvement in them, this
was not a fair price. The sp of 11/4 was a decent enough price and should have been taken.
 
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Clearly there was no money lost upon Macfin since discipline meant
that you should never take a price that was originally less than what was
originally available. One unusual thing that I did note and which caused
me concern before the race was that Macfin was ridden by an unknown
apprentice claiming 10lbs. Its original jockey, Twiston Davis, was on a
different horse in the same race.
The horse that won the race, Writteninthesand, was rated fifth. Given that
all finishers in the race finished within 5 lengths of each other, if the same race
was run again quite soon there would likely be a different result.
 
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Many thanks with the help shown with the Bower ratings Chesham.
You are a very helpful man.

Since I am posting somewhat later than normal I must keep things brief.

Ayr 2.15 Pammi (race already finished)

Ayr 3.23 Shesasuper... something or other (nap)
If you can get around 5/1 upon this horse, you are receiving excellent value.
 
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Chesham again!

Patrick Kilgallon is a name that I recognise from the past.
In the early days of the Internet he had his own site and
would post his own ratings for all races quite late on in the
evening. It was clear that his ratings were heavily automated
because back in those days, computers did not possess the
memory to do all the functions that are now available to bettors.

On the whole the Kilgallon ratings were very good. At some point
he decided to charge for his ratings. Unfortunately for him he was
running into Horseracebase and Racing Post ratings plus which could
give much more detail, and allowed you to also effect the outcome of
a race through your own input. So gradually the Kilgallon ratings began
to fade away and eventually he decided to bring up the drawbridge upon
them.
 
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primrose4 said:
Chesham again!

Patrick Kilgallon is a name that I recognise from the past.
In the early days of the Internet he had his own site and
would post his own ratings for all races quite late on in the
evening. It was clear that his ratings were heavily automated
because back in those days, computers did not possess the
memory to do all the functions that are now available to bettors.

On the whole the Kilgallon ratings were very good. At some point
he decided to charge for his ratings. Unfortunately for him he was
running into Horseracebase and Racing Post ratings plus which could
give much more detail, and allowed you to also effect the outcome of
a race through your own input. So gradually the Kilgallon ratings began
to fade away and eventually he decided to bring up the drawbridge upon
them.
Click to expand...
Hi P primrose4 , mmy thanks I did not realise that he had his own site and ratings. I always enjoyed all his books.

By the way I almost miss your posts today, if you @ in front of my username I will get an alert and can respond more quickly.
 
I have backed two horses today. The two seem to have gone in different directions
in the betting market since late last night.

3.07 Newcastle

This looks an ideal opportunity for Wor Verge. 13/2 was readily available last night so
the 4/1 currently available may offer little in the way of value.
There is a large disparity in the ORs of some of the contenders in this race. Frightened
Rabbit has an OR of 125 whilst Heritio has an OR of just 103. I think that both of these
can be dispensed with so that concentration should be on the middle rankings of the ORs.
These three contenders are Kensington (OR 114), Kojaki (OR 114) and Wor Verge (OR 112).

Of the three Wor Verge is the only contender to have carried more weight than today in
a comparable race as today's. This makes him the clear selection.
The ratings that I have given the three are :-

Wor Verge 115
Kensington 110
Kojaki 110

I think it is significant that Wor Verge is the only one of the three contenders to have a rating
that is higher than its OR.

In the 1.22 at Market Rasen, unlike Wor Verge, the selection looks to have gone the opposite way
in the betting market since Giovanni Change has drifted from last night's price to look a very
attractive betting opportunity. Again, Giovanni is the only horse in this race that has ended up with
a rating that is in excess of its OR viz :-

Giovanni Change 139
Flashing Glance 135
Tees Component 133
Small Present 125
Thunderstruck 117 (good old AC/DC)

Jesutique has been heavily supported in the market and may very well start favourite. It is very difficult
to give this one a rating since it has had very little racing.
 
I have had much to do this morning so have had little time to look at
racing form. The 12.35 at Chepstow was a race that attracted my attention.

The ratings are as tight as you can get since the four contenders are all
within 3 points of each other::-

Induno 114
Beau Haze 114
Investment Manager 111
Voodoo Doll 111

The ratings take weight carried into account, I would be surprised if Voodoo Doll
could win off top weight. Investment Manager has a big discrepancy between the
10.12 that it carried when recording its best OR of 122 and the 11.9 that it is expected
to carry today.
I can see why Induno has been all the rage in the betting markets. This horse has been
let in very lightly and is likely to go onto better things later in the season. It is making its
seasonal appearance though. If stripping fully fit it should make mincemeat of the opposition.

At a much greater price Beau Haze makes a lot of appeal. Along with Voodoo Doll, Beau Haze
has not been running in races as good as the other two contenders. Beau Haze has been running
particularly well against modest sorts and deserves to take its place in this field. The discrepancy
in class is leviated by the weight situation where the other three contenders have to concede
significant amounts of weight to Beau Haze. For this reason I make Beau Haze my nap of the day.
 
Yesterday was typical of a bettor's life. The winner, Kenyan Cowboy, was not even noted
as a contender.
When I looked back into its form, it would have been the selection !

Saturday is a day of opportunity with so many meetings and races to make an opinion
upon. I have extended the search in individual races from typically three horses to as
many as six since I want to avoid a repeart of yesterday.

1.30 Ascot

There were two horses in this race which ended up with the best rating of 119. These two
being Shantou Sunset and Empressive Lady. By extending the search to other horses in the
race I have found a better rated selection in Get the Appeal. Get the Appeal gets in with a list
topping 126. If 8/1 is still available about GtA then it could be a sound start to the day at Ascot.

2.40 Ascot

Buzz and Song for Someone both clearly have major chances and are are worthy of respect.
Both have been given ratings of 160. At a rating of 168 Goshen could be major value at 9/2.
Goshen is the selection.

1.15 Haydock

I am somewhat unsure about this race since I was surprised that the ratings topper was Navajo
Pass with 158. Behind Navajo Pass there is a whole host of horses rated at 150 or 149. These include
the likes of Chris Wood, Calico and Tommy Oscar. The heavily supported Our Surprise gets a rating
of just 129. This is likely to clearly understate the ability of Our Surprise since the horse is barely out
of novice company.
 
It might have been a well thought out post yesterday Chesham, but more
significantly it was a heavy loss making day.

With just two meetings today at Exeter and Uttoxeter the efforts should not
be spread as widely. This could be the reason why so many bettors report
Saturday as being their heaviest loss making day of the week.

The 3.00 at Exeter seems to give the best chance of atonement.
Balkardy looks well up to winning this and is the selection.
The ratings of the three principals are as follows:-

Bourball 99
Mi Laddo 99
Balkardy 112

It is difficult to give a rating to Legendary Rhthym so this horse might be
something of a danger. Hope You Do does not look up to coping with the
principals.

The other race that I have rated is the 1.40 at Uttoxeter viz :-

The Knot tied 111
Bucko's Boy 114
Quick Draw 118
Calvinist 116
Seaboro 121

Seaboro has got the required three points above the rest of the field so is a bet.
Quick Draw is clearly of interest here because along with Seaboro, it is the only
horse that is carrying less weight today than for the rating that is shown above.

The ratings in the 2.30 at Exeter are far too close to place a bet. Midnight Midge has 133
and the 5th rated Killer Kane has 128.
 
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