Today's bets

[primrose4]

The 6.00 at Newcastle looks an interesting race. I see that Bellagio Man
has made a quick return to its favourite track. Worth a saver.
The selection is Biplane. This horse looks comfortably in front of the rest
of the field upon Ratings.

In the first race at Newcastle, the 4.30, the bottom weight, Zivaniya, has a
better chance of success than the betting suggests. The other Course winners
are both at the top of the handicap. A strong case can be made for both of these
two. The concession of over a stone to Zivaniya by both of them may just be
beyond their abilities over this demanding 2 mile trip, particularly in bad weather.

 

[mlmrob]

The selection is Biplane. This horse looks comfortably in front of the rest
of the field upon Ratings.

Superb P primrose4

 

[primrose4]

Biplane returns today to Southwell in the 5.30. Its Racing Post ratings are still in advance of its
Official Rating and it has been supported again for the follow-up.

In the 6.30 I am of the opinion that I Can't Believe is a better horse than Northern Cracksman
and can oblige.

The 8.00 looks a difficult race to fathom. I wished that I had not backed Billy McGarry last night
since looking at the race from a fresh perspective shows that if Stella Hogan was to improve a
slight amount from its last performance then that horse is the likely winner.

If my assessment in the 8.30 is correct that Fistral Bay is in decline, which is certainly the case in
terms of its Official Rating, then the horse most likely to pick up the pieces and to beat it is
Portoro. The horse has run three fairly good performances. The negative is that
the last time-out Speed figure was very poor. The last two Speed figures for Fistral Bay were also
very poor.

 

[PHS]

f my assessment in the 8.30 is correct that Fistral Bay is in decline, which is certainly the case in
terms of its Official Rating, then the horse most likely to pick up the pieces and to beat it is
Portoro. The horse has run three fairly good performances. The negative is that
the last time-out Speed figure was very poor. The last two Speed figures for Fistral Bay were also
very poor.

WD P primrose4 . I backed that one as well. Looked a bit desperate at the finish after he was cruising 1f out.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

well done P primrose4

 

[primrose4]

For the umpteenth time I am trying my hand on the National Hunt.
I have adapted the All Weather method, which has done well in recent days,
to take account of the change in Racing type.

These are the selections that I have come up with :-

2.50 Chepstow Famous Five

3.20 Chepstow The Midwife

3.33 Exeter Stracken (nap)

4.08 Exeter Flash Gorcombe

All of these four are at better prices than the race selector suggests that they
should be. All played to small stakes.

 

[primrose4]

One out of four yesterday on the NH about sums up my knowledge of jumpers,
To be fair Chepstow was not too bad with a first and a second but Exeter was a
shocker. Back on the AW today at Wolverhampton where I can at least bring some
know-how.

6.00 at Wolverhampton
Northwest Passage
Two successive increases in Ratings leaves the current rating in excess of the Official
Rating. Also a weight reduction from LTO falling from 9.9 to 9.2.
Unfortunately other bettors have cottoned onto these favourable conditions and less
than 50% of the original stake has been matched as the price has continued to contract.

6.30 at Wolverhamton
Miss Calculation
This is a second example of a price severely contracting from p.m. to a.m. Last night 7/1
was available whilst the early morning price is only 9/2. Again only a part of the original
stake has been matched. This is a Conditions race so all horses carry a similar weight.
Miss Calculation carried a similar 9.9 LTO so will have no weight problems unlike some
of her potential rivals. A good chance in a poor quality race,

 

[primrose4]

I have found two races in which there appear to be decent bets.
They are both at Chelmsford.

6.30 Rebel Empire
Based on its figures Rebel Empire should be taking this.
A price of 4/1 is fair enough.
I have placed a saver on Above who is over-priced at double
digit odds.
With Rebel Empire being withdrawn I have taken a second look
at this race. I believe that Above still looks a decent bet and have
marginally increased the stake. I still cannot fathom the reason that
this is not at a much lesser price.

In an earlier race the 5.30, the selection is Secret Mistral.
The odds on this one have contracted since the bet was
first placed.

Thanks for your kind words Tacker.

 

[tacker]

I have found two races in which there appear to be decent bets.
They are both at Chelmsford.

6.30 Rebel Empire
Based on its figures Rebel Empire should be taking this.
A price of 4/1 is fair enough.
I have placed a saver on Above who is over-priced at double
digit odds.

In an earlier race the 5.30, the selection is Secret Mistral.
The odds on this one have contracted since the bet was
first placed.

Hi P primrose4 , you are to be congratulated for the work put into this thread and the success that goes with it, with a bit of time on my hands i thought it worth having a gander at both races to see if there was anything worth adding but now REBEL EMPIRE has been withdrawn i was left with the 5.30 to try and offer something.
I thought SECRET MISTRAL benefitted from a strong pace and the usual great ride from Rossa lto, time was decent and she stayed on well, another 5lbs is fair and so she's trying to win off a mark of 73 which while not out of the question but something to consider.
You can easily find others in this race that appear to be overreaching and so similar doubts exist, in fact the more i looked at the race the more i felt it difficult to draw any real conclusions has to how the pace of the race might unfold or who might come out on top but just wanted you to know i had a look and good luck.

 

[primrose4]

At Lingfield today the first selection Rosenspur, in the 1.22, has been withdrawn.
Of more interest is Rey De la Batallio in the 1.52. There has been sustained support
during the early Morning for Rey. Two successive increases in Official Ratings are
matched with successive increases in RPRs.

The 2.22 is a more difficult race to fathom. Certainly Virtue Temperance is highly
rated by the Official Handicapper but is not the selection of three ratings services.
There is not a great deal of form with Al Waqada but there is a strong suggestion
that this horse could be competing in a higher Class than this in the near future.
One for the Notebooks.

Postdata
I came back from my walk to be confronted by the agony of finding out that both
horses had been marginally beaten into second place. This game can add years
to your age, its certainly not for the faint of heart.

 

[primrose4]

Hopefully yesterday's success can be carried on to today.
At Wolverhampton I have found three races of interest, all
of which have resulted in bets.

4.55 Star of Jupiter will make its presence felt. If it is a going day
for the horse then I make this the likely winner.

7.00 Sisters In the Sky has drifted alarmingly in the betting from
the price shown late last night. Well handicapped.

8.00 The inform Init Together has a lot going for it. An improver who is
running in the correct grade is all you can ask for. It is worth taking a
chance upon Upepo for a saver.

Postscript
My bacon was saved there at the death by Upepo. A very poor day in terms of tipping
but Upepo was taken at favourable odds which meant that the betting bank remains
constant.
The betting bank has been reduced by the grand total of 71 pence.

 

[primrose4]

There are some quite decent races upon the Kemptom AW tonight.
After yesterday's experience where the p.m. price was a lot shorter
than the a.m. price I have restricted my bets to c.11 a,m. and have
found that the odds on all but one of last night's selections are at
a better price than they were late last night.

6.00 at Kempton
This race could boil down to a final furlong battle between Batai Dubai
and Follow Your Heart. The weight concession from Batai to FYH may
be the factor that pushes the race in favour of the latter.

6.30 at Kempton
Probably not a good betting race. Jersey Recs has only a slight edge over
Parisian Heat. If stripping fit then Mister Mojito has the abilty to take both
of these two out.

7.00 at Kempton
Got No Dollars represents excellent value at 7/1. An improver on ORs which
does not apply to its two main rivals in Top of the Class and Time to be Nice.
Got No Dollars will also receive weight from the other two. This could be the
meeting's best value bet.

8.00 at Kempton
Spirit of Jura is another horse that has a far better chance than its odds imply.
Spirit of Jura has improved with racing whilst Royal Alliance looks like it is stuck
on a mark of 83. Based on the quality of horses that finished behind it, it is possible
that Tuscan Star is simply too high in the weights.

 

[primrose4]

There appears to be some decent bets upon the Kempton AW
this evening.

6.30 City Cyclone (nap)
At 6/1 this horse looks way over-priced. Improving ratings and improving
Topspeed allied with a drop in weights. Also went off as the favourite in its
two last races. Say no more.

7.00 Tea Sea
Again Tea Sea looks to have plenty in hand of its main rivals. The rivals look to be
rated very similarly to each other which may suggest that there may be some
bunching in the final furlong.

8.00 Shallow
May have too much in hand for Rebel Empire. Supreme King is well weighted and may
prove the main rival to Shallow. If you follow the betting Supreme King has lacked market
support in its recent races (e.g.. 5th favourite of 7).

 

[primrose4]

I enjoyed the climax of the All Weather season on television.
I did not bother placing any bets so I stayed totally calm throughout.
Whilst rummaging through a drawer of old papers I came across
my AW system notes and method of selection which I used to positive
effect before Christmas time.

Using the method that these notes showed, I have found two horses
worth backing today. Both of them are at Wolverhampton :-

5.55 Wave Radar @ 13/2

6.30 Novak @ 13/2

In the Wave Radar race Kentucky Miner has the same rating. When
applying a secondary Rating it is clear that Wave Radar should be the
better of the two.

Last night I made Romantic Spirit in the 7.00 the most likely winner of
the meeting. For a short time the odds were north of 2/1. I declined
this price hoping for better in the morning. In the event the odds had
contracted into 6/4.

 

[primrose4]

If you were to include Romantic Spirit as a tip then yesterday was very good with
two winners and a close second. Today's only selection comes in the 5.37 at
Southwell :-

Yoshimi is very much overpriced at 10/1 and has been backed accordingly.
On form Jesse Luc is a deserved favourite. However, there are some holes that
can be picked in the form. The horse has had a large number of races, is it now
becoming to come off the boil? Regardless of the fate of Jesse Luc a price of
c.6/4 does not represent anything in the way of value.

 

[Chesham]

I enjoyed the climax of the All Weather season on television.
I did not bother placing any bets so I stayed totally calm throughout.
Whilst rummaging through a drawer of old papers I came across
my AW system notes and method of selection which I used to positive
effect before Christmas time.

Using the method that these notes showed, I have found two horses
worth backing today. Both of them are at Wolverhampton :-

5.55 Wave Radar @ 13/2

6.30 Novak @ 13/2

In the Wave Radar race Kentucky Miner has the same rating. When
applying a secondary Rating it is clear that Wave Radar should be the
better of the two.

Last night I made Romantic Spirit in the 7.00 the most likely winner of
the meeting. For a short time the odds were north of 2/1. I declined
this price hoping for better in the morning. In the event the odds had
contracted into 6/4.

Race Profile – 17:55 Wolverhampton (19 Apr 2025)​

• Type: Novice Stakes (C4, 3yo+)
• Trip: 7f 36y (AW Tapeta)
• Pace: Even early, strongly run late → 106.79% finish suggests a sprint to the line.
• Bias? Despite wide stalls for 1st and 2nd (10, 11), the pace held up well. No lane bias, but position on the pace helped.
• Result: Tight bunch finish among classy, unexposed types.

---

Top 4: All Hit TFR 87 — Quality Depth​

1st – Red Sand (TFR -1 to 87)​

• Trip: Stretching his stamina off a layoff; found plenty.
• Race Notes: Led, pushed along early, hung a bit but hung on.
• Stride Data: Final 2f — 11.38s / 11.84s ⏱
  Implies still finding despite early pressure.

Improver. Bred for further, but toughness here showed he can win again at 7f/1m. Will be sharper next time. Might be Group-entered soon.

---

2nd – Wave Rider (TFR +6 to 80)​

• Massive move from midfield – travelled smoothly, best closer.
• Final 2f: 11.13s / 11.40s Fastest closing section.
• Stride: Stronger late on than most; loved galloping room.

Wants 1m+. Given this was off 6 months and not knocked about, he’s a sure-fire novice winner-in-waiting — think Kempton or Newmarket mile.

---

3rd – Jolly Roger (TFR -7 to 87)​

• Ridden confidently under penalty, but didn't quicken as expected.
• Solid final 2f: 11.45s / 11.63s
• Just outfinished. Didn’t do much wrong, but may want a strong-run 6f next or a drop back in grade if things stay tight.

Still a useful colt, but more exposed than those around him.

---

4th – Warrior Mode (TFR -9 to 87)​

• Didn’t settle early, and that cost him the win.
• Travelled hard mid-race; late splits still strong:
  11.51s / 11.68s

A bit green + free-going, but has plenty of raw talent. Needs a stronger tempo and 1m+; big player for handicapsoff 80s or a step up in novice.

---

Promising Types Just Behind​

5th – Reds and Wolves (TFR -20 to 72)​

• Huge jump in TFR despite greenness.
• Still learning but hung + kept on, suggesting more to come.
• Improvement looks inevitable. One for nurseries or soft novice races.

---

6th – Bowfell (TFR t69)​

• Strong pedigree: Blue Point x Distinctive
• Ran on merit, not knocked about. Clear of those behind.
• No turn of foot but kept finding — stamina angles there.

Handicaps after 1 more spin — nice one to follow over 7f/1m.

---

Eye-Catchers Hidden by Position​

7th – Skibo (TFR +29 to 47)​

• Worst draw. Slow start. Caught in traffic 3f out.
• First run after gelding, and it looked like a pipe-opener.

Don’t let the finish fool you — this was a quiet prep, will improve hugely in a handicap over 1m+.

---

8th – Kentucky River (TFR +34 to 45)​

• Camelot colt. Off trip today (7f), wants 1m4f+.
• Plugged on despite early move, never asked for full effort.

Profile screams long-term staying handicap project, just getting qualified.

---

9th – Arundel (TFR +22 to 40)​

• Quietly handled. Just a spin to get rating.
• Picked up a bit over 1f out. Soft closer.

Another handicap sleeper, possibly 1m–1m2f.

---

️ Not Today​

Zero Zero / Skyler / Kilima​

• Showed too little, didn’t look ready or capable at this stage.
• Kilima especially disappointing given pedigree (by Pinatubo).

All three can only be watched until they appear on softer circuits or off lower marks.

---

Summary – Notebook Horses & TFR Movers​

Horse	TFR Change	Takeaway
Red Sand	-1 → 87	Resilient winner, solid 7f/1m future
Wave Rider	+6 → 80	Best closer, 1m will suit ideally
Jolly Roger	-7 → 87	Still solid, needs strong pace
Warrior Mode	-9 → 87	Green but full of promise
Reds & Wolves	-20 → 72	Improving, could sneak a weak race
Skibo	+29 → 47	Dark horse for handicaps
Kentucky River	+34 → 45	Will thrive at 1m4f+ in time
Arundel	+22 → 40	Needs 1m+, clearly learning

 

[Chesham]

Race Recap – 18:30 Wolverhampton | 7f 36y | Class 5​

• Pace: Even to Fast – enough zip early to string them out
• Finish %: 96.19% – means they went quick and paid late
• Race Time: 1m 26.74s – not hanging about
• Draw Bias: None declared, but inside box (1–3) dominated the top 3

---

The 3 Improving TFR Horses​

1st – NOVAK (Draw 3)​

TFR: 86 ( +3 lbs)
Career best – returned to 7f, applied pressure at exactly the right time and outstayed a pace-setting rival.

• Sectionals: Kept momentum across every split from 6f out; last furlong was 12.83s, not explosive but honest.
• Stride Finish: 22.84 ft / 2.25 sps – kept stretching when it mattered.
• Tactical Edge: Sat in prime spot and pounced late.

Next Move? Could stay at 7f or stretch to an easy mile. Tracks like Southwell or Chelmsford (with sharp bends) would play to this “sit & pounce” style.

---

2nd – HARBOUR VISION (Draw 1)​

TFR: 75 ( +19 lbs)
Jumped sharply and dictated — almost pinched it off the front.

• Pace Profile: Blasted off from the inside and held on until the final few strides.
• Final 2f: 12.00 / 12.83 — began to empty late.
• Stride Finish: 23.57 ft / 2.21 sps – tiring but gallant

Verdict: Back to form big time, and these Tapeta 7f races are his thing. He’s now hit the frame 7 times at Wolves, so he’s a must-track at this course, especially when fresh.

---

3rd – GINCIDENT (Draw 2)​

TFR: 87 ( +4 lbs)
Unlucky in running, but still posted a figure that suggests he’s winning soon.

• Slow start cost him, made ground steadily through the field.
• Final 2f split: 11.93 / 12.83 — as strong a close as you’ll see in this grade
• Stride: 23.40 ft / 2.2 sps — held a deeper energy reserve

Key Angle: Trainer switch to James Owen, now in the right hands, and up to 1m next time looks ideal. Lingfield or Newcastle mile = huge player.

---

Tactical Summary​

Horse	TFR	Style	Final 2f	Stride Finish	Verdict
Novak	+3	Sat close, strong finish	12.00 / 12.83	22.84 ft / 2.25 sps	Peak effort, suited 7f–1m
Harbour Vision	+19	Made all, just caught	12.00 / 12.83	23.57 ft / 2.21 sps	Veteran specialist at Wolves
Gincident	+4	Poor start, closed late	11.93 / 12.83	23.40 ft / 2.2 sps	Strong stayer, 1m angle hot

---

Wolverhampton Bias Notes​

Here’s what’s building up track bias-wise over recent cards:

What’s Working​

• Inside draws (1–3) have had a great time at both 6f and 7f recently — tactical positioning is king, especially in small fields.
• Races with early pace are rewarding closers, particularly when Finish % drops under 98%.
• Horses stalking the leader (like Novak here) are the ideal blend — not getting caught up front but close enough to strike.

What’s Not​

• Backmarkers struggling unless pace collapses totally.
• Runners off wide trips (draws 6-7+) often burning petrol early to hold position and paying late.

---

Notebook Horses​

• Novak – thriving under Archie Young, ready to handle a rise
• Gincident – unlucky, 1m Tapeta = must bet soon
• Harbour Vision – auto-bet at Wolves, especially with draw 1–4 and a clear run
  
  

  Perennial (Draw 4)​

  Marco Ghiani
  TFR: +8 (53)
  Backed in the market, but offered little.
  
  

  Tactical note: Raced freely, faded early in the straight.
  Stride: 21.78 ft / 2.22 sps – signs of inefficiency under pressure.

  Probably better when allowed to dictate or in a weaker heat. A bit flat here with no major excuse.
  
  

  ---

  How’s The Guvnor (IRE) (Draw 5)​

  George Wood
  TFR: -11 (53)
  Changed tactics. Sat too far back and never got involved.
  
  

  Sectionals: Consistently off the pace. No kick late.
  Stride: 22.37 ft / 2.22 sps — no acceleration.

  Might be interesting if sent hard from the front in a smaller or slower field, but not on this evidence.
  
  

  ---

  Double Time (Draw 7)​

  S. B. Kirrane
  TFR: +8 (50)
  Flat performance on reappearance after 6 months and yard switch.
  
  

  Sectionals: On the pace early, out of gas 2f out.
  Stride: 22.68 ft / 2.21 sps – nothing to write home about.

  Needs to come down the weights. Might improve for the run but didn't show anything notable.
  
  

  ---

  Enthused (IRE) (Draw 6)​

  Laura Pearson
  TFR: +24 (44)
  Down in trip and well beaten. 8yo now and looks regressive.
  
  

  Always rear – last throughout.
  Stride: 22.00 ft / 2.27 sps — low energy signal.

  Time may be up. Hard to recommend unless absolutely thrown in off a basement mark back over 1m+.
  
  

  ---

  Final Take – Sectionals & Stride Efficiency​

  Horse	Final Furlong (s)	Stride Length	Stride Rate	Comments
  Novak	12.83	22.84 ft	2.25 sps	Strong under pressure
  Harbour Vision	13.14	23.57 ft	2.21 sps	Rolled but emptied late
  Gincident	12.83	23.40 ft	2.2 sps	Best closer, poor start cost him
  Perennial	13.66	21.78 ft	2.22 sps	Tired stride
  The Guvnor	13.42	22.37 ft	2.22 sps	Passive ride
  Double Time	13.23	22.68 ft	2.21 sps	Faded badly
  Enthused	13.23	22.00 ft	2.27 sps	Just going through motions

 

[primrose4]

After a slow start to this season's Flat I have found a modicum of form
in recent days. The reliable notebook has been found and put into
productive use.

1.40 Newmarket
Arabian Leopard comes out best.

2.00 Newbury
There are two in this race that I could not split so I have backed them both:-
Circus of Rome
Lightening Mann

3.20 Thirsk
Hallelujahu looks to be good value at the prevailing price.

One other horse that is worth mentioning is Good Morning Alex in the 2.15 at
Newmarket. 8/1 appears fair value but there is something about this race that
makes me feel as many as five of the runners have equal potential to win it.
No bet.

Postscript
I will take two out of three any day.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Nice start to the day P primrose4 , best of luck with the others

 

[primrose4]

Out comes the Notebook for a Sunday.
Newmarket is again hosting a good meeting.
The day's best bet though runs at Ripon where I
make Jez Bomb @ 5/1 in the 3.10 the most likely
winner.

After finding a winner yesterday at Newmarket, I am
trying again:-

4.15 Fletchers Flight
A good bet at 15/2.

5.45 American Style
Another one available at 15/2. Method of selection ties in with
Arabian Leopard from yesterday.

6.15 My Marge
The absence of Mr Baloo has very much compressed the market.
No longer a value bet.