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Today's bets

I am leaving anything concerning betting forecasts and previous betting positions
out of any future analysis since this approach never seems to work for me.
One astute bettor once said that nobody can tell the horse that it has come in
from 7/1 to 3/1 favourite so it is likely to win, can they?.

I did originally have a double upon Forest Fairy and Los Angeles. Given that the
first bet ducked I have renewed interest in Los Angeles and found it someone wanting.
When looking back at the prestigious Derby trial at Leopardstown that Los Angeles won,
the opposition seemed very short of Ability.
One horse that did put in a very good Derby trial was Ambiente Friendly, when winning
at Lingfield. The horse put up a good time. If you were to use Meydan as a marker I would
rate this horse as a 103. This would make Ambiente Friendly a 118. This rating is more than
good enough to win most versions of the Derby. By contrast at Leopardstown using a similar
marker, Euphoric, would show Los Angeles to be no more than a 105. Food for thought.
 
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Ambiente Friendly ran very well in the Epsom Derby but Adrien O'Briens statement
concerning his Guineas flop proved correct and truthful.
The Exponential Ratings are no longer working for me. They are too good to bin, so
I have used them along with Consistency, Ability and Race Value.
I have taken a different approach upon the 3.35 at Haydock where I have dispensed
with horses in each of these categories which are within in the lowest upon each of the
grades. The only horse remaining is Flight Plan who is available at a tasty 8/1.

One of the day's best bets looks to be Diva's Grace in the 2.25 at Haydock. This horse is
within the top grade of all categories. A deserved favourite.
The rain that has fallen overnight in Lancashire may have more of an effect upon today's
ratings than otherwise envisaged when originally compiling them last night.
 
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I have been keeping things simple in recent days and have begun to find some form.
Today's racing programme at Ayr looks both interesting and competitive.

The 2.55 can be won by Winter Crown. Most of the opposition looks short of class
at this level. Be Proud is capable of winning the race but may just lack some consistency.
I am not expecting The Caltonian to show any further progress. Classy Al may find this
Class beyond him.

The 4.40 at Ayr is easier to evaluate. Judgment Call has shown the best form of any
horse in this field in two of its most recent relevant races. Yaaser may have the consistency to
finish in front of Al Ruqdad for second place..

One race to leave alone looks to be the 7.25 at Ripon. Three of the four contenders reviewed
finished within 2lbs of each other on the ratings. Combine this with the fact that Havana Prince is
consisitent within Banded Class and may be ready to take the step forward today into a higher Class.
Avoid.
 
A poor effort yesterday.
Two races that have interested me today are the 3.40 and 4.10 at
Pontefract. In the 3.40 Room Service was a good 2 year old and
has carried some of this Class into its 3 year old career. In terms
of Class only Matters Most looks capable of mounting a challenge.
There is a real problem though with the current price. The earliest
price was a more than acceptable 7/2, and a shade more on Betfair.
This morning Hills opened at a best 11/4.. That price soon went
and you could be struggling to get much north of 2/1 by the off.

The 4.10 offers better value in the form of Yippee. By comparison with
Free Speech, Yippee has raced against horses of a higher Ability.
The lightly raced Kaaress is capable of running beyond its current price.
 
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Anyone would state that today is a very low key day for
racing. The only race that has any interest to me is the
4.55 at Catterick where I have supported Heartwarmer.
Hills must have seen me coming since they were a best
price 4/1. Shortly on leaving the shop I noticed that the
price had drifted out to 9/2!.

I have extended the form study to two relevant races..
Within the field the only horse that looks capable of challenging
Heartwarmer is Kindest Nation who looks well weighted in relation
to the rest of the field, Puella Law is likely to start favourite. If this race
was at Beverley the result would be a foregone conclusion., unfortunately
for Puellla it is not. Perhaps bettors have backed this one heavily in
the belief that this is the day that Puella Law shows people that it has the
ability to win away from its beloved Beverley.
Of some interest is the unsupported Zainab. This horse is an AW specialist.
Reproduction of its excellent 2 year old form would certainly see Zainab visiting
the winners enclosure but this season so far has seen a continuing regression.
 
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Back for more punishment. I have decided to post today because I had
a good day yesterday with incorporating a simple rule into my selections.
Ripon looks to host a cracking day of racing. matching both Newmarket
and Haydock.

3.20 at Ripon
Prepschool
Ahead by 3 points of the revitalised veteran Cockalorum and a further two
points in front of Up the Jazz, Prepschool will hopefully be visiting the winners
enclosure this afternoon..

3.55 at Ripon
Shadow Dancer
This race could easily develop into a battle in the final furlong between the two
players in Shadow Dancer and Sea King. Shadow Dancer is very marginally
preferred in the sense that it has seemingly taken on superior opposition.

4.20 at Newmarket

Equiano Springs
This old timer looks revitalised in his current form. Another win could be on the cards.

5.20 at Newmarket
Lir Special
This could be another race that is solved in the final furlong between the two principals.
Metaverse is a useful sort and has attracted 6 tips to 3 tips for Lir Special, but I believe
that the latter has more potential for improvement.

I really am a glutton for punishment since I have tried my hand at the NH.

The 3.15 at Market Rasen is the race to concentrate upon. I have broken this race
down to three contenders:-
Statario
Soul Icon
Francky du Berlais

It is possible to back all three and to still show a profit. Of the three I believe that Francky is
the weakest.
 
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