Today's bets
- Thread starter primrose4
- Start date
I am leaving anything concerning betting forecasts and previous betting positions
out of any future analysis since this approach never seems to work for me.
One astute bettor once said that nobody can tell the horse that it has come in
from 7/1 to 3/1 favourite so it is likely to win, can they?.
I did originally have a double upon Forest Fairy and Los Angeles. Given that the
first bet ducked I have renewed interest in Los Angeles and found it someone wanting.
When looking back at the prestigious Derby trial at Leopardstown that Los Angeles won,
the opposition seemed very short of Ability.
One horse that did put in a very good Derby trial was Ambiente Friendly, when winning
at Lingfield. The horse put up a good time. If you were to use Meydan as a marker I would
rate this horse as a 103. This would make Ambiente Friendly a 118. This rating is more than
good enough to win most versions of the Derby. By contrast at Leopardstown using a similar
marker, Euphoric, would show Los Angeles to be no more than a 105. Food for thought.
out of any future analysis since this approach never seems to work for me.
One astute bettor once said that nobody can tell the horse that it has come in
from 7/1 to 3/1 favourite so it is likely to win, can they?.
I did originally have a double upon Forest Fairy and Los Angeles. Given that the
first bet ducked I have renewed interest in Los Angeles and found it someone wanting.
When looking back at the prestigious Derby trial at Leopardstown that Los Angeles won,
the opposition seemed very short of Ability.
One horse that did put in a very good Derby trial was Ambiente Friendly, when winning
at Lingfield. The horse put up a good time. If you were to use Meydan as a marker I would
rate this horse as a 103. This would make Ambiente Friendly a 118. This rating is more than
good enough to win most versions of the Derby. By contrast at Leopardstown using a similar
marker, Euphoric, would show Los Angeles to be no more than a 105. Food for thought.
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Leodis
Colt
I think you are in the zone with the above mentioned horses,
pinemarten
pinemartenAmbiente Friendly ran very well in the Epsom Derby but Adrien O'Briens statement
concerning his Guineas flop proved correct and truthful.
The Exponential Ratings are no longer working for me. They are too good to bin, so
I have used them along with Consistency, Ability and Race Value.
I have taken a different approach upon the 3.35 at Haydock where I have dispensed
with horses in each of these categories which are within in the lowest upon each of the
grades. The only horse remaining is Flight Plan who is available at a tasty 8/1.
One of the day's best bets looks to be Diva's Grace in the 2.25 at Haydock. This horse is
within the top grade of all categories. A deserved favourite.
The rain that has fallen overnight in Lancashire may have more of an effect upon today's
ratings than otherwise envisaged when originally compiling them last night.
concerning his Guineas flop proved correct and truthful.
The Exponential Ratings are no longer working for me. They are too good to bin, so
I have used them along with Consistency, Ability and Race Value.
I have taken a different approach upon the 3.35 at Haydock where I have dispensed
with horses in each of these categories which are within in the lowest upon each of the
grades. The only horse remaining is Flight Plan who is available at a tasty 8/1.
One of the day's best bets looks to be Diva's Grace in the 2.25 at Haydock. This horse is
within the top grade of all categories. A deserved favourite.
The rain that has fallen overnight in Lancashire may have more of an effect upon today's
ratings than otherwise envisaged when originally compiling them last night.
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I have been keeping things simple in recent days and have begun to find some form.
Today's racing programme at Ayr looks both interesting and competitive.
The 2.55 can be won by Winter Crown. Most of the opposition looks short of class
at this level. Be Proud is capable of winning the race but may just lack some consistency.
I am not expecting The Caltonian to show any further progress. Classy Al may find this
Class beyond him.
The 4.40 at Ayr is easier to evaluate. Judgment Call has shown the best form of any
horse in this field in two of its most recent relevant races. Yaaser may have the consistency to
finish in front of Al Ruqdad for second place..
One race to leave alone looks to be the 7.25 at Ripon. Three of the four contenders reviewed
finished within 2lbs of each other on the ratings. Combine this with the fact that Havana Prince is
consisitent within Banded Class and may be ready to take the step forward today into a higher Class.
Avoid.
Today's racing programme at Ayr looks both interesting and competitive.
The 2.55 can be won by Winter Crown. Most of the opposition looks short of class
at this level. Be Proud is capable of winning the race but may just lack some consistency.
I am not expecting The Caltonian to show any further progress. Classy Al may find this
Class beyond him.
The 4.40 at Ayr is easier to evaluate. Judgment Call has shown the best form of any
horse in this field in two of its most recent relevant races. Yaaser may have the consistency to
finish in front of Al Ruqdad for second place..
One race to leave alone looks to be the 7.25 at Ripon. Three of the four contenders reviewed
finished within 2lbs of each other on the ratings. Combine this with the fact that Havana Prince is
consisitent within Banded Class and may be ready to take the step forward today into a higher Class.
Avoid.
A poor effort yesterday.
Two races that have interested me today are the 3.40 and 4.10 at
Pontefract. In the 3.40 Room Service was a good 2 year old and
has carried some of this Class into its 3 year old career. In terms
of Class only Matters Most looks capable of mounting a challenge.
There is a real problem though with the current price. The earliest
price was a more than acceptable 7/2, and a shade more on Betfair.
This morning Hills opened at a best 11/4.. That price soon went
and you could be struggling to get much north of 2/1 by the off.
The 4.10 offers better value in the form of Yippee. By comparison with
Free Speech, Yippee has raced against horses of a higher Ability.
The lightly raced Kaaress is capable of running beyond its current price.
Two races that have interested me today are the 3.40 and 4.10 at
Pontefract. In the 3.40 Room Service was a good 2 year old and
has carried some of this Class into its 3 year old career. In terms
of Class only Matters Most looks capable of mounting a challenge.
There is a real problem though with the current price. The earliest
price was a more than acceptable 7/2, and a shade more on Betfair.
This morning Hills opened at a best 11/4.. That price soon went
and you could be struggling to get much north of 2/1 by the off.
The 4.10 offers better value in the form of Yippee. By comparison with
Free Speech, Yippee has raced against horses of a higher Ability.
The lightly raced Kaaress is capable of running beyond its current price.
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Anyone would state that today is a very low key day for
racing. The only race that has any interest to me is the
4.55 at Catterick where I have supported Heartwarmer.
Hills must have seen me coming since they were a best
price 4/1. Shortly on leaving the shop I noticed that the
price had drifted out to 9/2!.
I have extended the form study to two relevant races..
Within the field the only horse that looks capable of challenging
Heartwarmer is Kindest Nation who looks well weighted in relation
to the rest of the field, Puella Law is likely to start favourite. If this race
was at Beverley the result would be a foregone conclusion., unfortunately
for Puellla it is not. Perhaps bettors have backed this one heavily in
the belief that this is the day that Puella Law shows people that it has the
ability to win away from its beloved Beverley.
Of some interest is the unsupported Zainab. This horse is an AW specialist.
Reproduction of its excellent 2 year old form would certainly see Zainab visiting
the winners enclosure but this season so far has seen a continuing regression.
racing. The only race that has any interest to me is the
4.55 at Catterick where I have supported Heartwarmer.
Hills must have seen me coming since they were a best
price 4/1. Shortly on leaving the shop I noticed that the
price had drifted out to 9/2!.
I have extended the form study to two relevant races..
Within the field the only horse that looks capable of challenging
Heartwarmer is Kindest Nation who looks well weighted in relation
to the rest of the field, Puella Law is likely to start favourite. If this race
was at Beverley the result would be a foregone conclusion., unfortunately
for Puellla it is not. Perhaps bettors have backed this one heavily in
the belief that this is the day that Puella Law shows people that it has the
ability to win away from its beloved Beverley.
Of some interest is the unsupported Zainab. This horse is an AW specialist.
Reproduction of its excellent 2 year old form would certainly see Zainab visiting
the winners enclosure but this season so far has seen a continuing regression.
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Back for more punishment. I have decided to post today because I had
a good day yesterday with incorporating a simple rule into my selections.
Ripon looks to host a cracking day of racing. matching both Newmarket
and Haydock.
3.20 at Ripon
Prepschool
Ahead by 3 points of the revitalised veteran Cockalorum and a further two
points in front of Up the Jazz, Prepschool will hopefully be visiting the winners
enclosure this afternoon..
3.55 at Ripon
Shadow Dancer
This race could easily develop into a battle in the final furlong between the two
players in Shadow Dancer and Sea King. Shadow Dancer is very marginally
preferred in the sense that it has seemingly taken on superior opposition.
4.20 at Newmarket
Equiano Springs
This old timer looks revitalised in his current form. Another win could be on the cards.
5.20 at Newmarket
Lir Special
This could be another race that is solved in the final furlong between the two principals.
Metaverse is a useful sort and has attracted 6 tips to 3 tips for Lir Special, but I believe
that the latter has more potential for improvement.
I really am a glutton for punishment since I have tried my hand at the NH.
The 3.15 at Market Rasen is the race to concentrate upon. I have broken this race
down to three contenders:-
Statario
Soul Icon
Francky du Berlais
It is possible to back all three and to still show a profit. Of the three I believe that Francky is
the weakest.
a good day yesterday with incorporating a simple rule into my selections.
Ripon looks to host a cracking day of racing. matching both Newmarket
and Haydock.
3.20 at Ripon
Prepschool
Ahead by 3 points of the revitalised veteran Cockalorum and a further two
points in front of Up the Jazz, Prepschool will hopefully be visiting the winners
enclosure this afternoon..
3.55 at Ripon
Shadow Dancer
This race could easily develop into a battle in the final furlong between the two
players in Shadow Dancer and Sea King. Shadow Dancer is very marginally
preferred in the sense that it has seemingly taken on superior opposition.
4.20 at Newmarket
Equiano Springs
This old timer looks revitalised in his current form. Another win could be on the cards.
5.20 at Newmarket
Lir Special
This could be another race that is solved in the final furlong between the two principals.
Metaverse is a useful sort and has attracted 6 tips to 3 tips for Lir Special, but I believe
that the latter has more potential for improvement.
I really am a glutton for punishment since I have tried my hand at the NH.
The 3.15 at Market Rasen is the race to concentrate upon. I have broken this race
down to three contenders:-
Statario
Soul Icon
Francky du Berlais
It is possible to back all three and to still show a profit. Of the three I believe that Francky is
the weakest.
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Ascot hosts a superb day's racing. I have supported horses in three races
upon the program.
2.25
I have found it very difficult to split Soprana and Devoted Queen.
Of the two Devoted Queen has encountered better Ability horses
whilst Soprana has received the better Racing Post rating due to its
3rd of 30 at Royal Ascot.
4.15
New Century
This horse looks very solid in this Listed race.
4.50
Tolstoy (e.w.)
The 7/1 available about Tolstoy is very good value based upon two
readings of form.
upon the program.
2.25
I have found it very difficult to split Soprana and Devoted Queen.
Of the two Devoted Queen has encountered better Ability horses
whilst Soprana has received the better Racing Post rating due to its
3rd of 30 at Royal Ascot.
4.15
New Century
This horse looks very solid in this Listed race.
4.50
Tolstoy (e.w.)
The 7/1 available about Tolstoy is very good value based upon two
readings of form.
I have been working on ratings for a number of days and can vouch that you do
need ratings from two different sources. Yesterday I was able to place the ratings
into practice and would have come up with two out of three successful bets.
Today I have invested money in the ratings.
2.50 at Brighton
Dion Baker @ 4/1.
This could be the day's best bet.
4.40 at Chepstow
First Encounter @ 5/1
Looks to have a good chance of extending its recent good form with a win
in this race.
5.00 at Windsor
Villaobos @ 17/2
This horse looks over-priced for the good recent form shown.
I did select a fourth horse last night in Bear to Dream in the 4.20 at Brighton.
I decided to not back this horse on the grounds that at the prevailing odds
there was no value in the price and there are potential improvers in the field
who possess the Class to prevent it from winning.
need ratings from two different sources. Yesterday I was able to place the ratings
into practice and would have come up with two out of three successful bets.
Today I have invested money in the ratings.
2.50 at Brighton
Dion Baker @ 4/1.
This could be the day's best bet.
4.40 at Chepstow
First Encounter @ 5/1
Looks to have a good chance of extending its recent good form with a win
in this race.
5.00 at Windsor
Villaobos @ 17/2
This horse looks over-priced for the good recent form shown.
I did select a fourth horse last night in Bear to Dream in the 4.20 at Brighton.
I decided to not back this horse on the grounds that at the prevailing odds
there was no value in the price and there are potential improvers in the field
who possess the Class to prevent it from winning.
We are now coming towards the end of the flat season.
I have backed two horses today which are at opposite ends of
the Market with one being the favourite and the second being an
outsider. They both run at Newbury.
1.25 Hackney Diamond
The double digit odds do not reflect the chances of this horse of
taking the first prize money.
3.10 Yarrogh
This horse has been backed in from late last night to early this morning
into favouritism. A really good chance upon the pick of its form.
Postdata
Yarrogh was beaten by the slightest difference possible. Apparently Tom
Scudamore believed that the horse had won.
Hackney Diamond ran well finishing in the places. One for the each-way
thieves.
I have backed two horses today which are at opposite ends of
the Market with one being the favourite and the second being an
outsider. They both run at Newbury.
1.25 Hackney Diamond
The double digit odds do not reflect the chances of this horse of
taking the first prize money.
3.10 Yarrogh
This horse has been backed in from late last night to early this morning
into favouritism. A really good chance upon the pick of its form.
Postdata
Yarrogh was beaten by the slightest difference possible. Apparently Tom
Scudamore believed that the horse had won.
Hackney Diamond ran well finishing in the places. One for the each-way
thieves.
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With the NH in full swing I am turning my attention to this sphere of racing.
I have regurgitated a method to be used in the early stages of the NH season.
Both bets run at Wetherby.
2,58 French Dynamo @ 8/1
4.08 Top of the Cotswolds @ 13/2
Interestingly in the 4.08 race using ratings based upon Class (particularly the class of
horse finishing behind the contender), Top of the Cotswolds would not be in the top
three contenders. This method would show Gold Link as being the most likely winner.
French Dynamo looks very much under-rated against some solid but somewhat exposed
sorts.
I have regurgitated a method to be used in the early stages of the NH season.
Both bets run at Wetherby.
2,58 French Dynamo @ 8/1
4.08 Top of the Cotswolds @ 13/2
Interestingly in the 4.08 race using ratings based upon Class (particularly the class of
horse finishing behind the contender), Top of the Cotswolds would not be in the top
three contenders. This method would show Gold Link as being the most likely winner.
French Dynamo looks very much under-rated against some solid but somewhat exposed
sorts.
A first posting of the year. May we all have a successful betting year.
The weather has played havoc with most meetings today. The only
race of any interest to me today is the 5.15 at Newcastle. A high draw
is of benefit in Newcastle AW sprints. This is because the stalls are
frequently placed in the centre of the course.
The horse that I have backed is Oriental Prince. On the figures that I produce
I have this horse two points clear of Thunder Star who in turn is a point clear
of both Dicko and Mumayaz. Gustav Graves is some six points behind Oriental
Prince. I have taken out insurance policies via forecasts if Oriental Prince gets
beaten into second place.
The weather has played havoc with most meetings today. The only
race of any interest to me today is the 5.15 at Newcastle. A high draw
is of benefit in Newcastle AW sprints. This is because the stalls are
frequently placed in the centre of the course.
The horse that I have backed is Oriental Prince. On the figures that I produce
I have this horse two points clear of Thunder Star who in turn is a point clear
of both Dicko and Mumayaz. Gustav Graves is some six points behind Oriental
Prince. I have taken out insurance policies via forecasts if Oriental Prince gets
beaten into second place.
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Sean
Sire
well done
P
primrose4
Chesham
Sire
Well done
P
primrose4
The 3.12 at Lingfield is the race that has attracted my attention.
A lot of factors are in favour of Upepo who I make my selection.
If you were to use Currumbin as a marker then Upepo would be
considered a 75 horse, in the event Upepo runs here as a 67 horse.
Clearly Currumbin has improved since meeting Upepo and it is not
entirely correct that the improvement in Currumbin will be reflected
in the performance of Upepo, but at the prevailing odds of around 4/1
Upepo looks a strong selection.
Postdata
All that effort looks like it is down the drain because it appears that the
Meeting has been called off. It could be something of a misnomer to
call it "All Weather Racing."
A lot of factors are in favour of Upepo who I make my selection.
If you were to use Currumbin as a marker then Upepo would be
considered a 75 horse, in the event Upepo runs here as a 67 horse.
Clearly Currumbin has improved since meeting Upepo and it is not
entirely correct that the improvement in Currumbin will be reflected
in the performance of Upepo, but at the prevailing odds of around 4/1
Upepo looks a strong selection.
Postdata
All that effort looks like it is down the drain because it appears that the
Meeting has been called off. It could be something of a misnomer to
call it "All Weather Racing."
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Chesham
Sire
P
primrose4
Shame the race was called off. Tony Caroll won the LTO Rce that Upepo won with a horse call Be fair (BHA 57 in that Race) who won NTO in a class 5
Of the previous past 7 runnings of the LTO Race that Upepo won. 4 past winners from 7, won NTO
Can also be marked up was one of the slowest to hit 30MPH in the early stages and was running the fastest MPH at the end. Also ran 1.76 lengths more in distance than the runner up
Shame the race was called off. Tony Caroll won the LTO Rce that Upepo won with a horse call Be fair (BHA 57 in that Race) who won NTO in a class 5
Of the previous past 7 runnings of the LTO Race that Upepo won. 4 past winners from 7, won NTO
Can also be marked up was one of the slowest to hit 30MPH in the early stages and was running the fastest MPH at the end. Also ran 1.76 lengths more in distance than the runner up