Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book:
UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
Wolverhampton 14:05
The 14:05 at Wolverhampton is a competitive six-furlong handicap on the Tapeta and races like this around here are usually decided by small margins. With several regular all-weather performers lining up, early track position and proven course form could make all the difference.
At first glance there are a few with claims, but once I start looking at recent form and the race setup, one runner stands out as the most solid option.
Race Setup
Six-furlong handicaps at Wolverhampton often reward horses that travel well just off the pace before quickening late. The inside draws can also be a big advantage, especially in a race where several like to get on with things early.
This looks likely to be run at a fair tempo, which should suit a horse who can sit handy and finish strongly in the straight.
The Main Contenders
The one I keep coming back to is Kullazain. Since being gelded he looks to have turned a corner and his recent all-weather efforts suggest he’s still on a workable mark. He returned to winning ways over this course and distance in December and shaped well again when third in a stronger race at Kempton last time.
That Kempton run in particular reads well. He travelled strongly through the race and kept on well in the closing stages, suggesting he remains in good form. Back at Wolverhampton and from a good draw, conditions look ideal for another big run.
Knebworth looks the obvious danger. He comes here after winning at Chelmsford and a small rise in the weights doesn’t look harsh given how comfortably he scored that day. If he reproduces that effort, he’ll be firmly in the mix again.
Silky Wilkie is another who can’t be ignored. He’s a consistent sprinter at this level and tends to run his race on the all-weather, although he sometimes finds one or two finishing stronger.
Addarella is interesting as a previous course-and-distance winner and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, but this looks a tougher contest than the race she won here earlier in the year.
When you see a Clive Cox sprinter in a sprint handicap or conditions race, there are a few typical positives:
• They’re usually well schooled for speed tracks
• Often ready early in the season
• The yard targets specific sprint races rather than running frequently
So if
Dragon Leader is lining up in a sprint, the trainer angle is definitely a positive rather than a question mark.
Verdict
In a race where several have chances, I prefer the one who still looks capable of progressing.
Kullazain fits that profile. His recent form suggests he’s in excellent shape, he returns to a track where he has already won, and the race setup looks likely to suit.
If he gets the run of the race from his draw, I think he’ll take plenty of beating.
Selection: Kullazain
Knebworth looks one of the main dangers, while Silky Wilkie could again run well without quite getting his head in front. The other one to note is Dragon Leader.
My bets
Kullazain win bet @ 3.5 BOG
Dragon Leader EW bet @ 9 BOG
Wolverhampton 14:42
The Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton has become one of the more informative early-season handicaps on the all-weather. Run over just short of a mile and a quarter, it often throws up horses that go on to feature in the Lincoln at Doncaster or other major spring handicaps.
At first glance this year’s field looks competitive, but once I dig into the profiles it starts to narrow down quite quickly.
The Trends
Recent winners tend to sit in the mid-90s to low-100s ratings bracket and are usually four to six years old. They either arrive race-fit from a recent outing or still look to have some untapped improvement.
What this race rarely goes to is an exposed handicapper simply running to their mark. More often it’s won by a progressive horse who still looks ahead of the handicapper.
With a solid pace likely, Wolverhampton’s extended mile usually favours horses who can finish strongly rather than those trying to dominate early.
The Main Contenders
I keep coming back to La Botte. Harry Eustace’s four-year-old looked a smart handicap prospect last summer when finishing a narrow second in the Britannia at Royal Ascot in a huge field. That form sets a strong standard for a race like this.
He returns from a break carrying top weight, but he’s still lightly raced and already proven on the all-weather. If he’s strengthened over the winter, a mark of 104 could prove very workable.
Andrew Balding runs two interesting contenders.
The Lost King comes here race-fit after two solid runs at Kempton this winter, including a win and a close second. He clearly thrives on artificial surfaces and the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye, though a wide draw may force him to work harder than ideal.
Regal Ulixes arrives after a win at Lingfield last week where he produced the highest HRB figure in the field. The hood seemed to help him settle, but stall twelve is not an ideal starting point around here.
Kingdom Come, last year’s winner, also commands respect after a recent Kempton success. However, at seven years old he looks more exposed than some of the younger improvers in the race.
First Principle is another progressive four-year-old with a solid all-weather record for William Haggas, though this is a deeper handicap than the races he has contested previously.
Verdict
For me, this race looks set up for a horse with proven class and a strong late finish.
La Botte ticks both boxes. His Royal Ascot form stands out in this field and the likely strong pace should play perfectly into Jamie Spencer’s hands.
If he’s ready after the break, he looks the type who could quickly move beyond handicaps this season.
Selection: La Botte
The Lost King looks the main danger, while Kingdom Come could easily run another solid race again. The other Balding horse
Regal Ulixes is open to improvement but he isn’t entered in the Lincoln and he has to carry a penalty.
My bets
La Botte EW bet @ 7.5
The Lost King EW bet @ 7.0
Dave, while there are as you note numerous positives for Moyowasi, also two, maybe three, questionmarks.
JennyK
Travels well (k)
Neutral
Pulls hard (p)
Slow Start (s)
