Today's All Weather Racing

[Chesham]

Hi Dave

I Posted this one Pre race , earlier Today

The TF Inplay seems to be a game changer. Based on the last three runs. I was only discussing today with another TF Subscriber that the IPS (In Play Symbols) are something tht I have not taken much notice of . I have only recently added these to the Algorithm and it has crunched the numbers and has been quite revealing and a good edition to the final report. Also seems to get NH Racing as well

 

[tony spencer]

Last 3 Handicaps Pace profiles and model ratings

 

[Dave]

Hi Dave

I Posted this one Pre race , earlier Today

The TF Inplay seems to be a game changer. Based on the last three runs. I was only discussing today with another TF Subscriber that the IPS (In Play Symbols) are something tht I have not taken much notice of . I have only recently added these to the Algorithm and it has crunched the numbers and has been quite revealing and a good edition to the final report. Also seems to get NH Racing as well

View attachment 165066View attachment 165067

I backed Shrimp Shady last night. So I’m pleased it won. I’m very interested in the algorithm and how the in play flag has improved things.

 

[Dave]

Different ratings often lead to different conclusions, and on mine I have to disagree with you re Initial Blue, Dave.

Like so many 3yos he was lumbered with an OR well beyond his capability, 77. It took him twelve runs to win his first handicap, as you say lto, by when he had dropped to 55. Today off 62. Now he has won, like Spendmore Lane yesterday, he might win again and start climbing towards his first official rating of 77, but on my figures he looks very much less likely to.

Since beginning his handicap career, until his win lto, in by far the weakest race (on an average OR basis) he has contested, Initial Blue had achieved virtually nothing, just a couple of 3rd places. His chance today seems to me to depend on the value of his recent win, a race with an average OR of 52.0 which as you say he won easily. The second that day was the favourite, Respectable Jack, then and still a maiden (now after 13 runs) who went on to a race of average OR 51.1 and finished 5th of 7.

Today's race has an average OR of 65.6, so by quite a way a stronger field than that which Initial Blue beat on 04/02/26. And he runs off a 7lb higher mark.

It is entirely possible that, having won, he will start to show what presumably the Official Handicapper thought he or she saw in the horse back in April last year, and in my view this is a weak field (I even found myself contemplating the chance of veteran Dicko The Legend but he is far too short to be of interest). So, fingers crossed that he lands your bet, but I have considerable doubts.

He came up quite a bit short

 

[Chesham]

I backed Shrimp Shady last night. So I’m pleased it won. I’m very interested in the algorithm and how the in play flag has improved things.

Hi Dave
Tje Algorithm picked up for instance that SS ran a 3 =Mid Division 3 run ago before tonight and was R = responded to pressure . Next two runs was prominent /close = 2

When. combined with the other runners IPS it interpreted that the horse was like;y to be a grinder type in this race as he was a 3R at Lingfield

 

[JennyK]

"He came up quite a bit short"

Yes, Dave, but on my performance figures it was a considerable improvement on his performance on 04/02/26, his best since leaving the Hannon stable and quite close to his so far best ever AW performance on 19/08/25. He should be capable of winning again soon in a race of appropriate class.

I thought Beauzon ran well for a horse described as a "phenomenal lay", achieving as a 7yo a level of performance close to his best for two years. It will be interesting to see whether Mr Williams can find a race where he can extend the winning sequence to seven.

 

[Chesham]

Beauzon Improved his,TFR by 7lb from his :LTO Run . He also proved Beauzon defied the

Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy ​

But thankfully proved to be correctly identified as a Progressive Horse in the final analysis, I don’t think he got a mention otherwise on this thread. Dicko The Legend got a mention in one post on the thread , but ran 5Lb below his LTO Race. Looks to be effective off BHA 67-68 .

Here are the progressive profiles: as posted last night

1. The Explosive Improver: INITIAL BLUE (IRE) (3/1 F)​

• Class Rating Trajectory: 52.70 → 52.00 → 60.50
• Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 75 → 71 → 84+
• Analysis: He isn't a slow, steady improver; he is a sudden explosion of form. Two starts ago, he looked completely lost. Last time out, his trainer applied first-time blinkers and switched to aggressive front-running tactics. The result was a massive 13-point jump in his Timeform Rating and a dominant win where he was flagged as "travelling comfortably" (k). As an unexposed 4-year-old, if those blinkers work a second time, his ceiling is currently unknown and rapidly rising.

2. The Winning Sequencer: BEAUZON (11/2)​

• Class Rating Trajectory: 51.50 → 62.50 → 60.00
• Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 80+ → 81 → 78
• Analysis: You cannot talk about progression without mentioning a horse aiming for a 6-timer. Beauzon has literally progressed through the lower grades (Class 6) by stringing together five consecutive wins.
• The Caveat: His underlying speed and class numbers actually dipped slightly in his most recent win (PRB² stayed at 1.00, but his TFR dropped from 81 to 78, and his Custom Rating dropped 2.5 points). This tells us that while his results are progressive, his engine might be maxed out as he steps up into Class 5 company today.

 

[Dave]

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Kempton meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on


6:30 KEMPTON. Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier) (Div I) (0-85) (4) 4yo+ 6F


SUPREME KING. He’s an in form 6 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He’s proved that he has the ability to be competitive in this class and distance. He’s won in this class 3 times and 7 times over the distance.

He last ran 14 days ago at Kempton in a Class 4 over 6 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.20 lengths. He’s well handicapped, his highest winning mark is 78 and he runs off 77 today.

Supreme King win this race last year and he
returns to the scene of his last victory with everything in his favour: peak fitness, proven class form, ideal conditions and trip.


INTERVENTION. Is an in form 9 year old gelding and he’s a distance winner. He last won 77 days ago and had 5 races since.

LTO was 12 days ago at Southwell in a Class 4 over 6 furlongs, finishing 7th beaten by 3.10 lengths. That was a bit disappointing but he wasn’t that far away.

It was the race prior to that over C & D on the 11/2/26 in a class 2 that interests me. HE finished 2nd to El Boldon losing by a head. That form is rock solid.

He’s won in this class 3 times and 9 times over the distance. He’s well handicapped as his highest winning mark is 87 and is off 84 today.

The view is he’s declining form horse and he’s inconsistent. However, the race mentioned above shows he does retain ability. If he’s on a going day he’s a danger at a decent EW price.

Due to circumstances I had to back my selections last night so the odds will have most likely have moved.


SUPREME KING. Win @ 4.5

INTERVENTION. EW @ 9.0
(I backed it EW @ 17.0)

 

[Dave]

8:00 KEMPTON Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (0-70) (5) 4yo+ 1M 2F

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Kempton meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on


JODHPUR BLUE is an In Form 5 year old gelding. Although he last won 502 days ago and had 12 races since. He’s been running well. He last ran 24 days ago at Chelmsford in a Class 5 over 10 furlongs, finishing 2nd and beaten by 0.75 lengths.

Today, he’s running in the same class where he has won before and he’s upped in distance to 11f. LTO was a better race than this based on the prize money so he might just find things that bit easier.

He arrived in great shape and is running at what is probably his ideal distance in a track that suits him. He has solid form in this class and he’s a proven winner on the course.

I can’t see him being out of the first three and he has every opportunity of winner this at a good price.

Jodhpur Blue EW @ 6

 

[JennyK]

"If he’s on a going day he’s a danger at a decent EW price."

Absolutely agree, Dave. The difficulty with Intervention is knowing what determines whether any specific day is a going day.

Supreme King's connections seem to be following the same early season plan as last year, and indeed to an extent 2024's.

Last year as a 5yo he was a narrow 2nd in the previous race over today's course and distance, a rider restricted one where he was ridden by a 5lb claimer. He then won the equivalent to today's with a non-claiming jockey.

This year he won the previous race over the same course and distance, again a rider restricted race, with a 5lb claimer. Today a non-claiming jockey.

The race on 19/02/25 was, in average OR terms, 74.9, and he went very close off an OR of 77. The 2025 equivalent of today's was also a 74.9, and he won off 78 recording, on my performance figures, his best winning rating to date.

The race on 18/02/26 was a touch lower in average OR terms than the two in 2025, and he won off 73. Today the race has an average OR of 78.7 and he is running off 77.

Taking the two runs so far this year, on my ratings there is no evidence of regression since 2025 and it will surprise me if he does not win or go close. My guess is that he might fall a touch short of winning, for two reasons. First, on my figures he will need to return his best winning aw performance to win today, better than his figures in last year's equivalent and the prior race. As an early year 6yo, that is far from impossible, but some way from certain. Second, not only is he against Intervention, who on my figures has the best aw winning performance of the runners today since 01/01/24 and who bettered that, though without winning, over today's course and distance as recently as 11/02/26, but also Gallant. On 12/02/26 Gallant came a close second with the best performance of his career on my ratings, better than that for his win on 05/06/25 when trained by Mr Balding. IF he can run as well today he will be difficult to beat and as an early season 4yo could well be progressive..

Gallant and Supreme King are in form and in my view rightly at the head of the market. Unless Intervention has a going day, one of the two should win. Scope for a book.

 

[Dave]

"If he’s on a going day he’s a danger at a decent EW price."

Absolutely agree, Dave. The difficulty with Intervention is knowing what determines whether any specific day is a going day.

Supreme King's connections seem to be following the same early season plan as last year, and indeed to an extent 2024's.

Last year as a 5yo he was a narrow 2nd in the previous race over today's course and distance, a rider restricted one where he was ridden by a 5lb claimer. He then won the equivalent to today's with a non-claiming jockey.

This year he won the previous race over the same course and distance, again a rider restricted race, with a 5lb claimer. Today a non-claiming jockey.

The race on 19/02/25 was, in average OR terms, 74.9, and he went very close off an OR of 77. The 2025 equivalent of today's was also a 74.9, and he won off 78 recording, on my performance figures, his best winning rating to date.

The race on 18/02/26 was a touch lower in average OR terms than the two in 2025, and he won off 73. Today the race has an average OR of 78.7 and he is running off 77.

Taking the two runs so far this year, on my ratings there is no evidence of regression since 2025 and it will surprise me if he does not win or go close. My guess is that he might fall a touch short of winning, for two reasons. First, on my figures he will need to return his best winning aw performance to win today, better than his figures in last year's equivalent and the prior race. As an early year 6yo, that is far from impossible, but some way from certain. Second, not only is he against Intervention, who on my figures has the best aw winning performance of the runners today since 01/01/24 and who bettered that, though without winning, over today's course and distance as recently as 11/02/26, but also Gallant. On 12/02/26 Gallant came a close second with the best performance of his career on my ratings, better than that for his win on 05/06/25 when trained by Mr Balding. IF he can run as well today he will be difficult to beat and as an early season 4yo could well be progressive..

Gallant and Supreme King are in form and in my view rightly at the head of the market. Unless Intervention has a going day, one of the two should win. Scope for a book.

The 3 you mentioned were my exact shortlist of horses for this race Gallant for all the reasons you’ve mentioned. He’s young and progressive. His LTO over 6 F puts him right in the thick of it.

I was always going to put Supreme King up for the win. However, when I saw the price of Intervention for an EW bet knowing just what he can do on his day in better races than this, I had to go that way.

I have put all three in a combination forecast.

Thanks for a super reply as ever. I always find your replies thought provoking and making me want to read the next.

Cheers Dave

 

[Chesham]

Hi Dave
You asked about the IN Play IPS
The In Play works out well on the NH as well Tried out the Algorithm on Scrubber Race to see how it perform . I needed to make sure it undstood that Trainers allocate their own weights and the reason why, as well as the Race Condition for Entry . Then I let it loose .

 

[tony spencer]

All weather pace maps and ratings

 

[JennyK]

Thanks, Dave.

We are off to the theatre tonight so I haven't spent time on the second of the qualifiers, but if Gallant runs well in the first it will of course underline Dyrholaey's chance in the second.

 

[Dave]

Hi Dave
You asked about the IN Play IPS
The In Play works out well on the NH as well Tried out the Algorithm on Scrubber Race to see how it perform . I needed to make sure it undstood that Trainers allocate their own weights and the reason why, as well as the Race Condition for Entry . Then I let it loose .


View attachment 165094View attachment 165095View attachment 165096

Fantastic, it looks very accurate.

 

[Chesham]

Thanks Dave

only 3 races today and all 3 races performed the same , 2 were NH and The AW was a Exotic Trial that I am exploring (I think These will need to be watched as they are not that easy to land , but the payout is good if they come up. The Tote Swinger was the imitation thought, but the Payout is not that brilliant as you can from the result below, compared to the Exacta and Trifecta. This look the way to go as both are only 6 bets each to cover all 3 )

 

[JennyK]

Disappointing when I checked the result just now, Dave.

Not Intervention, whom we knew could finish anywhere.

Nor Supreme King, though whether the persistent trouble in running the Post comments suggests he got into was at all down to the claimer who rode him, when I had mistakenly thought he was being ridden by a non-claimer, who knows. I would have backed him anyway had I realised he was being ridden by a claimer, so no regret there.

But Gallant. His performance was disappointing. With Dyrholaey's similar performance in the later race, at least the possible reason for both is apparent and something I'll bear in mind when they run again.

Happily, four appropriate sprint handicaps today and maybe one (or more) will throw up a much better outcome than my book yesterday.

 

[Dave]

Disappointing when I checked the result just now, Dave.

Not Intervention, whom we knew could finish anywhere.

Nor Supreme King, though whether the persistent trouble in running the Post comments suggests he got into was at all down to the claimer who rode him, when I had mistakenly thought he was being ridden by a non-claimer, who knows. I would have backed him anyway had I realised he was being ridden by a claimer, so no regret there.

But Gallant. His performance was disappointing. With Dyrholaey's similar performance in the later race, at least the possible reason for both is apparent and something I'll bear in mind when they run again.

Happily, four appropriate sprint handicaps today and maybe one (or more) will throw up a much better outcome than my book yesterday.

Hi JennyK I watched the race and I was really disappointed by the performance of Intervention who just didn’t show up. I think the yard are struggling at the moment.

As for Supreme King, if anyone is to blame it’s definitely the jockey. He didn’t get the position needed and when he went for the gap he was blocked out. Maybe a Rossa Or Billy onboard and it’s a winner. Always the risk with claimer.

 

[Leodis]

' I needed to make sure it undstood that Trainers allocate their own weights and the reason why..'

An interesting theory, Chesham . Is there any subject material on this?

Regards

 

[Chesham]

Hi Leodis

This example should explain (it was Pre Race) It can Improved if you add your own class ratings to the mix.