Today's All Weather Racing
- Thread starter Dave
- Start date
Hi
JennyK , Further to the earlier conversation about "progression & Regression", i would be interested in your thoughts regarding DORNEY LAKE , runs 6.30 newc tomorrow ?Dropped to a mark of 75 now , that's 16lbs in the last 10 months, having watched a few of his runs i can't judge if he's being deliberately ridden to get his mark down or just running to where he's at atm, my take is he needs holding up but two runs back he made the running over 6f which doesn't suit but ran very well. Tomorrow drops into a cl5 and 7f so complications everywhere but again is his form all about regression or a horse being managed ? I can't judge but this is a case of watching replays and applying experience even before we see any market.
JennyK
Gelding
T
tacker
It is difficult because of the changes of trainer.
When with Mr Gosden we see a common pattern - a 3yo rated far higher by the Official Handicapper than he proves able to win with. By the end of his 3yo career he had dropped down to a mark of 81 and although tried in successively lower value races (with average ORs broadly matching) he showed very little, with a best finish of 5th.
Presumably the owners, Godolphin, had decided by then that at best he'd make into a middle ranking handicapper and sold him.
He then won his first two handicaps as a 4yo for his new trainer, Mr Bell, off 81 and 87, the latter particularly impressive as he was up quite a way in class - penalty value 57, AOR 74.3 to pen 96, AOR 83.9. That second win, 26/04/25, is at the moment my benchmark for assessing him.
After the second win he was raised to 91 and in four runs showed very little, dropping back to his last winning mark for a race on 27/07/25, when he encountered soft going for the first time. In that race he returned a much lower performance rating (my figures) than when he won three months earlier, and impossible to be sure whether the going was a contributory factor, but in my view it quite likely was.
After that, just one more run for Mr Bell. The same trip and going conditions as his 26/04/25 win, but unlike when he won (Doncaster, a "speed" course) this run was at Newmarket, a "power" course. On my ratings he returned a higher figure than for the previous run on soft, but well below that of his 26/04/25. Was it because of the course type? Not enough evidence for a conclusion. The fact that he remained with Mr Bell until December suggests the possibility of an illness or injury which, if the case, might have been relevant to the performance in that last race.
Had Dorney Lake remained with Mr Bell and been put away for the winter, given that he had now dropped to 81, and had won first time out as a 4yo after a break of 170 days, he would have been of interest from the first in the coming turf season, particularly if he ran over 6f, on good or better and on a "speed" course. However, that is academic as he was sold again.
With his current trainer he has obviously so far only run on the aw, four runs with a best finish of 5th. Even though he is now off 75, and running in the lowest quality handicap on both prize money and AOR, I would not consider backing him tomorrow because as yet there is no evidence he runs well on the aw. I have no idea why some horses seem to do well on the aw compared with the turf and for others it is the reverse, but it certainly seems to be the case that for some one is better.
Unless he runs well tomorrow or on the aw prior to the start of the turf, my position is that Dorney Lake will be of interest when he returns to the turf, and could be thrown in if he opens with 6f on good or good to firm on a "speed" course. Until we have more evidence, though, I'd not be interested in backing him on soft or worse, and probably not if he starts on a "power" course.
Strictly on my performance ratings, which cover all handicap runs not just wins, Dorney Lake improved significantly on his turf handicap runs as a 4yo compared with his 3yo runs. Even if he were to win tomorrow, the performance ratings for his aw runs under Mr Bailey are miles down on the levels achieved on the turf as a 4yo. Theoretically that could be evidence of regression. My view is that it is much more likely to be due to not finding the aw congenial and that once he gets back to decent going on the turf he is likely to run again to or a bit above the levels he achieved on the turf as a 4yo. But until we have evidence we can't be sure.
It is difficult because of the changes of trainer.
When with Mr Gosden we see a common pattern - a 3yo rated far higher by the Official Handicapper than he proves able to win with. By the end of his 3yo career he had dropped down to a mark of 81 and although tried in successively lower value races (with average ORs broadly matching) he showed very little, with a best finish of 5th.
Presumably the owners, Godolphin, had decided by then that at best he'd make into a middle ranking handicapper and sold him.
He then won his first two handicaps as a 4yo for his new trainer, Mr Bell, off 81 and 87, the latter particularly impressive as he was up quite a way in class - penalty value 57, AOR 74.3 to pen 96, AOR 83.9. That second win, 26/04/25, is at the moment my benchmark for assessing him.
After the second win he was raised to 91 and in four runs showed very little, dropping back to his last winning mark for a race on 27/07/25, when he encountered soft going for the first time. In that race he returned a much lower performance rating (my figures) than when he won three months earlier, and impossible to be sure whether the going was a contributory factor, but in my view it quite likely was.
After that, just one more run for Mr Bell. The same trip and going conditions as his 26/04/25 win, but unlike when he won (Doncaster, a "speed" course) this run was at Newmarket, a "power" course. On my ratings he returned a higher figure than for the previous run on soft, but well below that of his 26/04/25. Was it because of the course type? Not enough evidence for a conclusion. The fact that he remained with Mr Bell until December suggests the possibility of an illness or injury which, if the case, might have been relevant to the performance in that last race.
Had Dorney Lake remained with Mr Bell and been put away for the winter, given that he had now dropped to 81, and had won first time out as a 4yo after a break of 170 days, he would have been of interest from the first in the coming turf season, particularly if he ran over 6f, on good or better and on a "speed" course. However, that is academic as he was sold again.
With his current trainer he has obviously so far only run on the aw, four runs with a best finish of 5th. Even though he is now off 75, and running in the lowest quality handicap on both prize money and AOR, I would not consider backing him tomorrow because as yet there is no evidence he runs well on the aw. I have no idea why some horses seem to do well on the aw compared with the turf and for others it is the reverse, but it certainly seems to be the case that for some one is better.
Unless he runs well tomorrow or on the aw prior to the start of the turf, my position is that Dorney Lake will be of interest when he returns to the turf, and could be thrown in if he opens with 6f on good or good to firm on a "speed" course. Until we have more evidence, though, I'd not be interested in backing him on soft or worse, and probably not if he starts on a "power" course.
Strictly on my performance ratings, which cover all handicap runs not just wins, Dorney Lake improved significantly on his turf handicap runs as a 4yo compared with his 3yo runs. Even if he were to win tomorrow, the performance ratings for his aw runs under Mr Bailey are miles down on the levels achieved on the turf as a 4yo. Theoretically that could be evidence of regression. My view is that it is much more likely to be due to not finding the aw congenial and that once he gets back to decent going on the turf he is likely to run again to or a bit above the levels he achieved on the turf as a 4yo. But until we have evidence we can't be sure.
Chesham
Sire
Here is the fully upgraded Upgraded Class Rating and Performance Rating (PR%) breakdown for the 6.30 Newcastle handicap.
As an All-Weather Flat race, the baseline weight has automatically shifted to Timeform metrics (Tfig and TFR), In-Play symbols, and full commentary have been integrated to identify the pace setup and progressive value.
I have also cross-referenced the live betting comparison market you provided to frame the final Value Analysis.
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Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy
1. The Pace Scenario: This is a competitive 7-furlong sprint on the straight track at Newcastle. The pace will be dictated by three horses: Tasever, Andalprofit, and Spartan Fighter (all carrying IP 1 or 2 tags).
Flowstate (9/4 F) He is the clear favorite and mathematically dominates this race.
Chuzzlewit (4/1) If Flowstate gets stuck in traffic (as he did last time out), Chuzzlewit is the one to capitalize.
Blazing Son (15/2) He is a massive negative on the data.
Progressive Horses Analysis
There is only one genuinely progressive horse in this field, and it happens to be the favorite.
The Proven Improver: FLOWSTATE
As an All-Weather Flat race, the baseline weight has automatically shifted to Timeform metrics (Tfig and TFR), In-Play symbols, and full commentary have been integrated to identify the pace setup and progressive value.
I have also cross-referenced the live betting comparison market you provided to frame the final Value Analysis.
Summary Table
| Horse Name | Avg Rtg | Diff vs Median OR (70.5) | Avg PRB² | Avg PR % | Primary IP Style | In-Play Flag | Current Odds |
| Flowstate | 68.94 | -1.56 | 0.73 | 67.46% | Hold Up (4/5) | Travels well (k) | 9/4 F |
| Chuzzlewit | 67.05 | -3.45 | 0.37 | 56.48% | Mid-Division (3/4) |  Neutral | 4/1 |
| Tasever | 64.58 | -5.92 | 0.54 | 50.79% | Front Runner (1/2) | Neutral | 9/2 |
| Dorney Lake | 63.71 | -6.79 | 0.11 | 18.56% | Variable (3/1) |  Pulls hard (p) | 9/1 |
| Beauty Choice | 64.53 | -5.97 | 0.17 | 33.58% | Hold Up (3/4) | Neutral | 6/1 |
| Andalprofit | 56.96 | -13.54 | 0.44 | 59.26% | Prominent (1/2) | Pulls hard (p) | 8/1 |
| Spartan Fighter | 56.70 | -13.80 | 0.52 | 48.21% | Prominent (2) | Neutral | 11/1 |
| Blazing Son | 49.89 | -20.61 | 0.07 | 7.12% | Variable (5/2/4) | Slow Start (s) | 15/2 |
Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy 
1. The Pace Scenario: This is a competitive 7-furlong sprint on the straight track at Newcastle. The pace will be dictated by three horses: Tasever, Andalprofit, and Spartan Fighter (all carrying IP 1 or 2 tags).- Andalprofit was flagged for pulling hard (p) two starts ago.
- Dorney Lake led and pulled hard (p) two starts ago.
- Result: There is enough contested, aggressive speed here to ensure a true gallop, setting the race up for a closer.
Flowstate (9/4 F) He is the clear favorite and mathematically dominates this race.- The Data: He possesses the highest average Class Rating (68.94), the highest PRB² (0.73), and the highest PR% (67.46%). His Timeform Ratings (86, 88, 86) are incredibly consistent and set the standard.
- The IP Profile: He sits perfectly out the back (IP: 4/5). Two starts ago over C&D, he was flagged with the k(travelled best) symbol before slicing through the field. With enough pace on to pull him into the race, he is going to be incredibly hard to hold off late. The 9/4 is entirely justified.
Chuzzlewit (4/1) If Flowstate gets stuck in traffic (as he did last time out), Chuzzlewit is the one to capitalize.- The IP Profile: He sits in mid-division (IP 3). He hasn't raced since February, but the Timeform comments from that run specifically noted he "looked a bit rusty after 7 months off but wasn't disgraced... likely to be closer to form next time with this under his belt." He is a very smart each-way alternative or back-to-lay trade as he hits the line strong.
Blazing Son (15/2) He is a massive negative on the data.- The Data: He has the worst PRB² (0.07) and the worst PR% (7.12%) in the field. He consistently underperforms relative to market expectations.
- The IP Profile: He has a horrible habit of missing the break (s). He was slowly into stride last time and reared at the start three runs ago. Over 7f at Newcastle, if you blow the start, the race is practically over.
Progressive Horses Analysis 
There is only one genuinely progressive horse in this field, and it happens to be the favorite.The Proven Improver: FLOWSTATE
- Class Rating Trajectory: 71.21 → 71.00 → 64.60
- Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 86 → 88 → 86
- Timeform Speed (Tfig) Trajectory: 78 → 80 → 78
- Analysis: Don't let the slight dip in his last Class Rating fool you; that happened because he met trouble in running ("short of room over 1f out") and was ridden by a 7lb claimer. His previous two starts over this C&D produced two wins, an 88 TFR, and an 80 Tfig. He is a 5-year-old in the form of his life, and returning to his favorite track makes him the most progressive profile in the race.
Chesham
Sire
This was the pre race assessment
Summary Table
| Horse Name | Avg Rtg | Diff vs Median OR (74) | Avg PRB² | Avg PR % | Primary IP Style | In-Play Flag | Current Odds |
| Fidelius | 81.43 | +7.43 | 0.84 | 67.22% | Prominent (2/1/4) | Neutral | 4/5 F |
| The Thames Boatman | 76.68 | +2.68 | 0.49 | 44.44% | Variable (5/3/2) | Slow Start (s) | 9/4 |
| Toolatetonegotiate | 71.61 | -2.39 | 0.45 | 41.67% | Hold Up (4/5) | Late Finisher (sR) | 11/2 |
| Lequinto | 66.49 | -7.51 | 0.35 | 41.67% | Variable (5/2/4) | Late Finisher (r) | 14/1 |
| Level Up | 50.96 | -23.04 | 0.31 | 40.48% | Prominent (1/2/3) | Neutral | 28/1 |
Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy
1. The Pace Scenario: This is a tiny, 5-runner field over the minimum 5f trip. Looking at the IP profiles, the tactical setup is fascinating.- Fidelius (IP: 1) and Level Up (IP: 1/2) are the designated speed. They will ensure a very solid, true gallop.
- The Thames Boatman and Toolatetonegotiate both have a brutal habit of missing the break (s).
- Result: The field is going to stretch out immediately. Fidelius will likely get an uncontested lead while the others scramble out of the gates behind him.
Fidelius (4/5 F) He is heavily odds-on for a reason.- The Data: He completely dominates this race mathematically. His 81.43 Custom Class Average is the only rating comfortably clearing the Class 4 median of 74. He posts a massive 0.84 PRB² and consistently runs to his market expectations (67.22% PR). His Timeform Ratings (96, 99, 95) tower over this field.
- The Tactics: Drawn in Stall 5, he has the natural early speed (IP 1) to cross the field, grab the rail, and dictate the race. With the two primary challengers (Thames Boatman and Toolatetonegotiate) being chronic slow starters (s), Fidelius is going to have a 2-length advantage before they have even found their stride. He is rock solid.
Toolatetonegotiate (11/2) If the favorite falters, she is the one to capitalize.- The IP Profile: Yes, she dwells in the stalls (s), but the last time she raced over this C&D, she earned the incredibly rare R (responded really well to pressure) flag. Timeform noted she had "still plenty to do 1f out, found plenty to lead post." Because she will be last early, her odds will drift significantly in-running. She is the perfect back-to-lay candidate for in-play traders.
The Thames Boatman (9/4) He is the clear second favorite, but his profile is full of holes.- The IP Profile: Timeform sounded the alarm last time out: "he had looked to be turning the corner with his stalls issues, so it's a tad concerning that the trait is resurfacing". If he breaks awkwardly (s) again today against a horse as fast as Fidelius, his race is over instantly.
- The Data: His numbers are heavily skewed by one win back in January. His last two runs have produced very poor PRB² scores (0.14 and 0.32). He is terrible value at 9/4.
Progressive Horses Analysis
There is no horse in this race displaying a flawless three-race upward curve, but one horse is holding a terrifying peak.The Dominant Peak: FIDELIUS
- Class Rating Trajectory: 85.70 → 83.50 → 75.10
- Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 95 → 99 → 96
- Timeform Speed (Tfig) Trajectory: 90 → 94 → 91
- Analysis: While his Custom Class Rating dipped slightly last time out (because he dropped down to race against a much lower Base Class 85 field but still carried high weight), his Timeform metrics prove he is maintaining an elite level of form. As Timeform noted, he is "enjoying a productive winter and proved better than ever." He isn't progressing because he has already hit a ceiling that the rest of this field cannot reach.
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Leodis
Gelding
tony spencer
Filly
Todays AW cards
JennyK I wasn't expecting such a comprehensive answer to my question and easy to agree with many of the points you make.
Is DN the same horse as last season ? very much doubt it but you might argue he's being deliberately used to get his his mark down even further which has already dropped a fair amount, for instance the fav here FLOWSTATE was as low as 61 last season while DN was on 91, now just 3lbs between them.
My best guess is he has gone backwards to some degree for now at least and there's every chance his new connections will be looking to further reduce his mark, so the question is what might be a winning mark ? perhaps around 70, what connections might not want is to perform reasonably well in the conditions that don't suit him best, that like you've pointed out is includes the AW over 7f and more likely 6f donny on a firmer surface, it's the trainers job to do just that and like i say there is some evidence that he's been ridden accordingly in recent races.
I think what i'm saying is that while he's not the same horse it doesn't mean we can write him off, in fact he might yet fool us both off his present mark...............Thanks for the reply.
JennyK
Gelding
T
tacker
It will be interesting to see how Dorney Lake does tonight.
The current favourite, Flowstate, is also problematic, not of course because of the suitability of the going, but the reason for his failure last time. So far, four handicap wins, as follows:
Class 42, average OR 60.0, off a mark of 61
Class 31, average OR 62.0, off 64
Class 79, average OR 66.2 off 66
Class 44, average OR 66.4 off 69. Then
Class 44, average OR 68.0 off 72, beaten 2l. Today
Class 37, average OR 69.1, again off 72
Until the more recent class 44, the record of a progressive horse who, as an early-year 5yo, could easily progress further, as he will need to if he is to win today.
The problem is the class 44, average OR 68.0. What we don't know is whether his performance in winning the class 44, average OR 66.4 will prove to be his career peak, and thus he is now plateauing or beginning to regress, or whether it was a blip and he will go on to show further progression.
In the class 44, average OR 68.0 Flowstate was ridden by a 7lb claimer, and encountered a problem in running. Cause and effect, or just the kind of bad luck that would have happened had an experienced jockey been up? Did the problem materially effect the result? On one view, the race can be excused, especially as today Flowstate is being ridden by a non-claimer. Another possibility is that the horse showed he was out of form so shouldn't be trusted today.
Things are rarely totally clear!
It will be interesting to see how Dorney Lake does tonight.
The current favourite, Flowstate, is also problematic, not of course because of the suitability of the going, but the reason for his failure last time. So far, four handicap wins, as follows:
Class 42, average OR 60.0, off a mark of 61
Class 31, average OR 62.0, off 64
Class 79, average OR 66.2 off 66
Class 44, average OR 66.4 off 69. Then
Class 44, average OR 68.0 off 72, beaten 2l. Today
Class 37, average OR 69.1, again off 72
Until the more recent class 44, the record of a progressive horse who, as an early-year 5yo, could easily progress further, as he will need to if he is to win today.
The problem is the class 44, average OR 68.0. What we don't know is whether his performance in winning the class 44, average OR 66.4 will prove to be his career peak, and thus he is now plateauing or beginning to regress, or whether it was a blip and he will go on to show further progression.
In the class 44, average OR 68.0 Flowstate was ridden by a 7lb claimer, and encountered a problem in running. Cause and effect, or just the kind of bad luck that would have happened had an experienced jockey been up? Did the problem materially effect the result? On one view, the race can be excused, especially as today Flowstate is being ridden by a non-claimer. Another possibility is that the horse showed he was out of form so shouldn't be trusted today.
Things are rarely totally clear!
gerry
Mare
Just had look at race for this thread little interest and i think
Chesham has high lighted it perfect in that FLOWSTATE is the horse they all have to beat 4 runs here winning 3 and its last race was first try at southwell and was not as bad a performance as looks
The only one i could even see giving it a race was TASEVER and already beat this one easy here personally i think 9/4 is tad generous.
Chesham has high lighted it perfect in that FLOWSTATE is the horse they all have to beat 4 runs here winning 3 and its last race was first try at southwell and was not as bad a performance as looksThe only one i could even see giving it a race was TASEVER and already beat this one easy here personally i think 9/4 is tad generous.
Dave
Gelding
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Kempton meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Handicap (0-55) (6) 4yo+ 1M 5Yds 6 run.
The short odds on favourite is Moyowasi. He comes here fresh off a recent Kempton win 4 days ago and he should handle the surface and the uphill finish.
He’s an Improving 4 year old gelding and a distance and class winner. His highest winning mark is 55 and is off 60 today. His Handicap rating includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out.
He’s a hold up horse that really needs proper pace to chase. He’s got a very talent jockey on board which helps his case especially when teamed up with the trainer Ian Williams. They have a 21% win strike rate at this course in the past two years.
So there are a number of positive points but not enough in my opinion to be odds on.
Those that know me will know that I never back odds on.
I’m always keen to try an exploit value when I see what I believe is a weak favourite. I can’t see why the bookmakers have him as an odds on shot.
He’s unproven at the Newcastle track a track that many find difficult. He also needs a strong pace to chase. In this race today there is only one horse who likes to front run and that is Sold Out.
Therefore I’m going to take him on with two selections. The first selection is :
DEQUINTO is an In Form 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last
won 24 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO
was 15 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th from nine and beaten by 3.00 lengths.
Tony Carroll and Myla Coppins (7lbs) team up again and their stats are quite impressive 4 wins from 9 runs in the past 2 years at the course.
He has quite a few positives stacked in his favour: He’s a proven C&D performer with his ideal conditions. He’s in peak condition and race fit. He generally races as a hold up and rallies late.
He finished 4th beaten 3L at Newcastle on 19/2/26 with an Even early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored an 64.9 and was classified as Strong. A repeat of that should see him being competitive .
SOLD OUT. Is an Improving 4 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He last won 19 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO ran 13 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th beaten by 3.50 lengths.
Sold Out is returning to a track and trip where he's won, and the yard is in really good form with 3 winners from 6 runners in the past 14 days. Stevie Donohoe takes the ride again and he’s 1 from 1 on the gelding.
He’s the only genuine front runner in the race which could work in his favour as he can dictate the pace. My only really reservation is his FSP% stats show that he fades towards the end of a race.
He finished 4th beaten 3.5 at Lingfield on 21/2/26 with an Even to Fast early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 73 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
SOLD OUT Win bet @ 7
DEQUINTO Win bet @ 7.5
MARKET HOUSE looks the standout pick here. He's a dual winner at Newcastle, he’s in peak form after a recent Wolverhampton second, ideal trip and surface and dropping back into a class 5 race.
He finished 2nd to Pride Of Donegal on 27/2/26 at Wolverhampton. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 79 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
The price is much shorter than I wanted.
MARKET HOUSE Win bet @ 2.85
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Handicap (0-55) (6) 4yo+ 1M 5Yds 6 run.
The short odds on favourite is Moyowasi. He comes here fresh off a recent Kempton win 4 days ago and he should handle the surface and the uphill finish.
He’s an Improving 4 year old gelding and a distance and class winner. His highest winning mark is 55 and is off 60 today. His Handicap rating includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out.
He’s a hold up horse that really needs proper pace to chase. He’s got a very talent jockey on board which helps his case especially when teamed up with the trainer Ian Williams. They have a 21% win strike rate at this course in the past two years.
So there are a number of positive points but not enough in my opinion to be odds on.
Those that know me will know that I never back odds on.
I’m always keen to try an exploit value when I see what I believe is a weak favourite. I can’t see why the bookmakers have him as an odds on shot.
He’s unproven at the Newcastle track a track that many find difficult. He also needs a strong pace to chase. In this race today there is only one horse who likes to front run and that is Sold Out.
Therefore I’m going to take him on with two selections. The first selection is :
DEQUINTO is an In Form 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last
won 24 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO
was 15 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th from nine and beaten by 3.00 lengths.
Tony Carroll and Myla Coppins (7lbs) team up again and their stats are quite impressive 4 wins from 9 runs in the past 2 years at the course.
He has quite a few positives stacked in his favour: He’s a proven C&D performer with his ideal conditions. He’s in peak condition and race fit. He generally races as a hold up and rallies late.
He finished 4th beaten 3L at Newcastle on 19/2/26 with an Even early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored an 64.9 and was classified as Strong. A repeat of that should see him being competitive .
SOLD OUT. Is an Improving 4 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He last won 19 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO ran 13 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th beaten by 3.50 lengths.
Sold Out is returning to a track and trip where he's won, and the yard is in really good form with 3 winners from 6 runners in the past 14 days. Stevie Donohoe takes the ride again and he’s 1 from 1 on the gelding.
He’s the only genuine front runner in the race which could work in his favour as he can dictate the pace. My only really reservation is his FSP% stats show that he fades towards the end of a race.
He finished 4th beaten 3.5 at Lingfield on 21/2/26 with an Even to Fast early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 73 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
SOLD OUT Win bet @ 7
DEQUINTO Win bet @ 7.5
Newcastle 4:26 Handicap (0-75) (5) 4yo+
MARKET HOUSE looks the standout pick here. He's a dual winner at Newcastle, he’s in peak form after a recent Wolverhampton second, ideal trip and surface and dropping back into a class 5 race.
He finished 2nd to Pride Of Donegal on 27/2/26 at Wolverhampton. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 79 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
The price is much shorter than I wanted.
MARKET HOUSE Win bet @ 2.85
Chesham
Sire
HiJust had look at race for this thread little interest and i think
The only one i could even see giving it a race was TASEVER and already beat this one easy here personally i think 9/4 is tad generous.
Dave Flowstate is obviously one who needs the Race to pan out in its favour. If you go to his 2nd LTO On ATR Mark Winn was interviewed after winning.
These are the more in-depth last tree runs data that the Algorithm produces before the final report
2. Flowstate (IRE)
Run 1: 28.Feb.26 | Southwell | 7f | Std (Going: 18.0) | 9-4 (130 lbs) | Base Class: 68- Variables: 2.1 Lengths Beaten | W 0 (0) | Wgt Adj: +2.0
- Class Rating: = 64.60
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 78 | TFR: 86
- PRB²: 3/7 (PRB = 0.43) → 0.18
- Performance Rating (PR): = 633.33%
- IP Profile: 4p (Raced off the pace, not settle fully)
- Timeform: Failed to complete the hat-trick but turned in another good effort in defeat with a 7-Ib claimer in the saddle; raced off the pace, not settle fully, effort over 1f out, short of room over 1f out, stayed on.
- Variables: Wgt Adj: +3.5
- Class Rating: = 71.00
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 80 | TFR: 88
- PRB²: 1/8 (PRB = 1.0) → 1.00
- Performance Rating (PR): 83.33%
- IP Profile: 5k (Held up, travelled best)
- Timeform: Followed up his recent success in ready fashion... steadied at the start, held up, travelled best, headway over 1f out, led final 1f, comfortably.
- Variables: < Wgt Adj: +2.5
- Class Rating: = 71.21
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 78 | TFR: 86
- PRB²: 1/9 (PRB = 1.0) → 1.00
- Performance Rating (PR):= 85.71%
- IP Profile: 4 (Held up)
- Timeform: Had been comfortably seen off by Goldmoyne over C&D a fortnight ago, but with the race panning out much better for him than that rival, got firmly back on the up; held up, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, edged ahead final strides.
3. Tasever
Run 1: 15.Feb.26 | Newcastle | 7f | Std (Going: 18.0) | 9-5 (131 lbs) | Base Class: 67.5- Variables: Wgt Adj: +2.5
- Class Rating: = 61.51
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 72 | TFR: 82
- PRB²: 2/8 (PRB = 0.25) → 0.06
- Performance Rating (PR): * 100 = 0.00%
- IP Profile: 2 (Close up, disputed lead)
- Timeform: Back down in trip after just 5 days off, found it tougher under a penalty, not able to get the lead outright this time; close up, disputed lead halfway until 2f out, weakening when hung left over 1f out.
- Variables: Wgt Adj: +2.0
- Class Rating: = 69.00
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 78 | TFR: 88
- PRB²: 1/9 (PRB = 1.0) → 1.00
- Performance Rating (PR): = 85.71%
- IP Profile: 1 (Led)
- Timeform: Off same mark as when runner-up over C&D 6 days earlier, proved at least as good as ever to go one better; led, pushed along 2f out, tackled soon after, hung left final 1f, proved determined as he asserted close home.
- Variables: +5.5
- Class Rating: = 63.25
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 75 | TFR: 85
- PRB²: 6/8 (PRB = 0.75) → 0.56
- Performance Rating (PR): 100 = 66.67%
- IP Profile: 1 (Led)
- Timeform: Has been consistent on the whole here over the last few months and wasted no time getting back on track back up in trip; led, ridden over 1f out, headed last ½f, kept on.
7. Chuzzlewit
Run 1: 10.Feb.26 | Newcastle | 8f (1m) | Std (Going: 18.0) | 9-8 (134 lbs) | Base Class: 66- Variables: +4.0
- Class Rating: = 59.88
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 69 | TFR: 82
- PRB²: 5/9 (PRB = 0.55) → 0.30
- Performance Rating (PR): * = 50.00%
- IP Profile: 3 (Mid-division)
- Timeform: Looked a bit rusty after 7 months off but wasn't disgraced; mid-division, ridden 3f out, kept on; likely to be closer to form next time with this under his belt.
- Variables: Wgt Adj: -0.5
- Class Rating: = 65.48
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 68+ | TFR: 81+
- PRB²: 9/19 (PRB = 0.47) → 0.22
- Performance Rating (PR): = 44.44%
- IP Profile: 3 (Mid-field)
- Timeform: Is better judged on previous form, not helped by charting a wide passage on this occasion; mid-field, pushed along early in straight, one paced.
- Variables: | Wgt Adj: +4.5
- Class Rating: = 75.80
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 75 | TFR: 88
- PRB²: 11/14 (PRB = 0.78) → 0.60
- Performance Rating (PR): = 75.00%
- IP Profile: 4 (Waited with)
- Timeform: Went the right way from encouraging stable debut at the second attempt; waited with, pushed along 3f out, headway under pressure under 2f out, challenged final 1f, ran on.
8. Dorney Lake
Run 1: 6.Feb.26 | Newcastle | 6f | Std-Slw (Going: 18.0) | 9-9 (135 lbs) | Base Class: 77- Variables: | Wgt Adj: +4.5
- Class Rating: = 62.00
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 68 | TFR: 73
- PRB²: 3/12 (PRB = 0.25) → 0.06
- Performance Rating (PR): = 18.18%
- IP Profile: 3 (Soon steadied)
- Timeform: Continues edge down the weights and this didn't get to the bottom of him; soon steadied, shaken up under 2f out, not quicken, not unduly punished.
- Variables: | W 0 (0) | Wgt Adj: +4.5
- Class Rating: = 74.25
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 75 | TFR: 80
- PRB²: 6/11 (PRB = 0.54) → 0.29
- Performance Rating (PR): = 50.00%
- IP Profile: 1p (Led, took strong hold)
- Timeform: Fared better than previously for current stable from a sliding mark; led, took strong hold, pushed along 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened.
- Variables: W 0 (0) | Wgt Adj: +4.5
- Class Rating: = 54.90
- Timeform Metrics: Tfig: 53 | TFR: 58
- PRB²: 0/9 (PRB = 0.0) → 0.00
- Performance Rating (PR): -12.50%
- IP Profile: 3 (Mid-division)
- Timeform: Made it successive poor runs starting out for his new stable; mid-division, ridden 2f out, soon beaten.
Leodis
Gelding
Three horses have met par, including at the distance, and all in higher race medians than today.
Nothing much to separate them, apart from the fact that Market House has an adjusted, gallop-out figure that is still hot.
One to watch!
Chesham
Sire
I think you will be please with the Algorithm Report
Summary Table
| Horse Name | Avg Rtg | Diff vs Median OR (53) | Avg PRB² | Avg PR % | Primary IP Style | In-Play Flag | Current Odds |
| Moyowasi | 54.86 | +1.86 | 0.47 | 34.52% | Hold Up (4/5) | High head carriage | 8/11 F |
| Mr Fustic | 49.54 | -3.46 | 0.24 | 42.53% | Mid-Division (3/4) | Pulls hard (p) | 5/1 |
| Sold Out | 45.85 | -7.15 | 0.60 | 60.58% | Front Runner (1) | Neutral | 11/2 |
| Dequinto | 37.08 | -15.92 | 0.46 | 39.16% | Hold Up (4/5) | Travels well (k) | 9/1 |
| Wyvern | 34.55 | -18.45 | 0.02 | -5.36% | Hold Up (4) | Slow Start (s) | 9/1 |
| Take The A Train | 14.10 | -38.90 | 0.04 | 11.36% | Hold Up (3/4) | Lazy (l) | 50/1 |
Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy
1. The Pace Scenario: This is an incredibly weak Class 6 handicap (1m) on the straight track at Newcastle. Tactically, it looks like a complete freebie on the front end for one horse: Sold Out.Looking at the IP profiles, Moyowasi, Mr Fustic, Dequinto, Wyvern, and Take The A Train all possess deep hold-up profiles (IP 3, 4, or 5). None of them want the lead.
- Mr Fustic pulls hard (p) from mid-division.
- Moyowasi drops out the back.
- Dequinto requires a patient, hold-up ride to perform.
- Result: Sold Out (IP 1) will almost certainly get an uncontested lead. He can dictate the fractions entirely on his own terms.
Moyowasi (8/11 F) He is heavily odds-on, but his profile makes him an exceptionally dangerous bet at that price.- The IP Profile: He drops out the back (IP 4/5) and has a terrible habit of carrying his head awkwardly under pressure. As Timeform noted: "didn't impress with his head carriage under pressure." * The Tactics: If Sold Out is allowed to dictate a slow pace from the front on the straight track, Moyowasi will be left with too much ground to make up. Horses with awkward head carriage rarely enjoy a battle. At 8/11, he is a fantastic Lay on the exchanges.
Sold Out (11/2)- The Data: He boasts the highest PRB² in the field (0.60) and the second-highest PR% (60.58%).
- The Tactics: As the only confirmed front-runner (IP 1) in a race full of hold-up horses, he is going to get his own way. He won two starts ago at this track when allowed to dictate ("made running, drew clear"). Because the favorite will be out the back, Sold Out's odds will likely crash in-running as he controls the race.
Dequinto (9/1) If Moyowasi misfires as expected, Dequinto is the closer to watch.- The IP Profile: Ignore his run three starts ago where he pulled his way to the front (P) and blew up. When ridden patiently, he is effective. Two starts ago, he won over this C&D and earned the rare k (smooth headway) flag. He needs a specific ride, but if Myla Coppins anchors him out the back and brings him with one run, his 9/1 odds will look huge late in the race.
Progressive Horses Analysis
There are no flawless progressive profiles in this low-grade race, but the favorite is the only horse showing upward momentum, which explains his very short price.The Form Horse: MOYOWASI
- Class Rating Trajectory: 51.79 → 57.18 → 55.63
- Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 59 → 60 → 67
- Timeform Speed (Tfig) Trajectory: 17 → 49 → 61
- Analysis: Despite the tactical warnings against him, it's undeniable that his engine is improving. His Timeform Rating jumped 7 points last time out when winning at Kempton. He is a 4-year-old with only 11 runs to his name, so he is unexposed at 1m. However, his awkward head carriage means he is not one to trust implicitly at odds-on.
Dave
Gelding
Great report. I’m happy to be taking the favourite on at the prices. The favourite may prove to be progressive but he certainly shouldn’t be odds on in this poor quality race. I looked at the high head carriage and that just adds weight to my thoughts.I think you will be please with the Algorithm Report
Summary Table
Export to Sheets
Horse Name Avg Rtg Diff vs Median OR (53) Avg PRB² Avg PR % Primary IP Style In-Play Flag Current Odds Moyowasi 54.86 +1.86 0.47 34.52% Hold Up (4/5) 8/11 F Mr Fustic 49.54 -3.46 0.24 42.53% Mid-Division (3/4) 5/1 Sold Out 45.85 -7.15 0.60 60.58% Front Runner (1) 11/2 Dequinto 37.08 -15.92 0.46 39.16% Hold Up (4/5) 9/1 Wyvern 34.55 -18.45 0.02 -5.36% Hold Up (4) 9/1 Take The A Train 14.10 -38.90 0.04 11.36% Hold Up (3/4) 50/1
Pace Map & In-Play Value Strategy
1. The Pace Scenario: This is an incredibly weak Class 6 handicap (1m) on the straight track at Newcastle. Tactically, it looks like a complete freebie on the front end for one horse: Sold Out.
Looking at the IP profiles, Moyowasi, Mr Fustic, Dequinto, Wyvern, and Take The A Train all possess deep hold-up profiles (IP 3, 4, or 5). None of them want the lead.
2. The Statistical Lay:
- Mr Fustic pulls hard (p) from mid-division.
- Moyowasi drops out the back.
- Dequinto requires a patient, hold-up ride to perform.
- Result: Sold Out (IP 1) will almost certainly get an uncontested lead. He can dictate the fractions entirely on his own terms.
3. The Tactical Value:
- The IP Profile: He drops out the back (IP 4/5) and has a terrible habit of carrying his head awkwardly under pressure. As Timeform noted: "didn't impress with his head carriage under pressure." * The Tactics: If Sold Out is allowed to dictate a slow pace from the front on the straight track, Moyowasi will be left with too much ground to make up. Horses with awkward head carriage rarely enjoy a battle. At 8/11, he is a fantastic Lay on the exchanges.
4. The Each-Way / In-Play Trader:
- The Data: He boasts the highest PRB² in the field (0.60) and the second-highest PR% (60.58%).
- The Tactics: As the only confirmed front-runner (IP 1) in a race full of hold-up horses, he is going to get his own way. He won two starts ago at this track when allowed to dictate ("made running, drew clear"). Because the favorite will be out the back, Sold Out's odds will likely crash in-running as he controls the race.
- The IP Profile: Ignore his run three starts ago where he pulled his way to the front (P) and blew up. When ridden patiently, he is effective. Two starts ago, he won over this C&D and earned the rare k (smooth headway) flag. He needs a specific ride, but if Myla Coppins anchors him out the back and brings him with one run, his 9/1 odds will look huge late in the race.
Progressive Horses Analysis
There are no flawless progressive profiles in this low-grade race, but the favorite is the only horse showing upward momentum, which explains his very short price.
The Form Horse: MOYOWASI
- Class Rating Trajectory: 51.79 → 57.18 → 55.63
- Timeform Rating (TFR) Trajectory: 59 → 60 → 67
- Timeform Speed (Tfig) Trajectory: 17 → 49 → 61
- Analysis: Despite the tactical warnings against him, it's undeniable that his engine is improving. His Timeform Rating jumped 7 points last time out when winning at Kempton. He is a 4-year-old with only 11 runs to his name, so he is unexposed at 1m. However, his awkward head carriage means he is not one to trust implicitly at odds-on.
I’m hoping Sold Out dictates from the front and wins. If he doesn’t then I’ve got plan B in Dequinto
JennyK
Gelding
From a VDW perspective,
Dave, while there are as you note numerous positives for Moyowasi, also two, maybe three, questionmarks.
1) Unproven with what is, for Flat horses, a heavy weight.
2) Up in class (both win prize money and average OR of field) and weight - always a doubtful proposition.
3) Running over 8f on a "power" course for the first time. Whether that will suit remains to be seen.
The current market price goes nowhere near covering those risks.
Dave, while there are as you note numerous positives for Moyowasi, also two, maybe three, questionmarks.1) Unproven with what is, for Flat horses, a heavy weight.
2) Up in class (both win prize money and average OR of field) and weight - always a doubtful proposition.
3) Running over 8f on a "power" course for the first time. Whether that will suit remains to be seen.
The current market price goes nowhere near covering those risks.