• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

The 2.5 goal market trial...

I missed the Chinese games yesterday as I was out (which considering that a couple of them finished with 4+ goals, there may have been qualifiers) , and also had issues with my broadband this morning so was unable to post today's games - not a problem with that as none of them qualified;

75684

The last qualifier from the Brasil league lost as well, so the trial took a small hit as the odds were below the 1.85 filter.
 
It looks like the Chinese Super League is having a mid-season break, and will return around half-way through September.
 
There was a game early this morning for the Brasil Serie A that I missed - I checked it anyway but it didn't qualify. The rest of the Brasil games for the coming days are:

76032
 
Have you thought about widening the net a little? Add another league perhaps?
Or do you think there will be plenty of games when the Chinese return?
 
Not at the moment, as this particular system trial is done part manually (the calculations are automatic within an XLS, but the previous result values must be inputted manually at the mo), and I already have a decent (automatic) system for goal calculation. I think I'll run out the current seasons for the 3 leagues and see how it is from there. As it originally started as a trial of a system I came across online, I mainly wanted to see;
a - how effective it is
b - how often it threw up qualifying bets
c - how profitable it might be
d - how labour-intensive or how possible it might be to try to automate the process somehow

I've checked well over 100 games now with just 20 qualifiers identified (15 if you include the under 1.85 odds filter), and can now make a reasonable conclusion on the above that while it is an effective system with a decent return, it's a bit too much effort for not enough reward back for my liking.

I'm also currently rethinking my betting methods at the moment, and kinda need to streamline my strategies as I have recently started a new job and I'm finding I just don't have enough time to fit all my plans in to my new busy schedule.
 
Thought you went a bit quite for the last few days - good luck with the new job!

As you know, I am more horse racing inclined, but having seen what you do (and what Footy Trader does) I have been wondering if it's worth building my own 'stand alone' Number of Goals prediction system. A lot of work I know, but some independence in this area may be of benefit and hopefully profitable in the following years.

This may sound crazy, but my prediction model would take account of the weather and have in single input variance figure based on the general conditions.....lol.
For example, this weekend it will generally be dry, warm and not too windy, etc. so would have an input figure of x 1.2 for England (Scotland x 0.95).
This would mean one could expect more goals than average......better conditions = happier players = more goals.
This is based on the fact that footballers are generally prima donna pounces :D (I'm joking...lol).
What do you think? Nuts?
 
retriever retriever

There is plenty on the net not worth building your own standalone.

I harp on I have tried everything the best way to play football and the only way you can grind out profit is inplay where bookies make mistakes based on inplay stats.
 
retriever said:
I guess you are right...….and it's always going to be there, for a long as there's football. The problem with in-play betting, of course, is that it's so time consuming.
Click to expand...

Yes your there the inplay is time consuming I like to set myself a target and finish tbh.

In out and done.

I may start an inplay thread next few days post when I can see it will help football heads on the forum.
 
retriever said:
This may sound crazy, but my prediction model would take account of the weather and have in single input variance figure based on the general conditions.....lol.
For example, this weekend it will generally be dry, warm and not too windy, etc. so would have an input figure of x 1.2 for England (Scotland x 0.95).
This would mean one could expect more goals than average......better conditions = happier players = more goals.
Click to expand...
One of my earliest ever systems was an over 1.5 goal system based on the data listed on the Forebets website. I used to select every game (BA placing the bet in-play at a specific point for me) they listed with a goal average of 3.00+ and listed various other aspects of the game (including the weather which was also included on the website), and after a period of time I was able to improve the success rate by toggling between the noted stats. One of the things that did make a positive difference was games played in good weather, so I can honestly say your observation about this has got legs.
For those of us that did play football competitively in their youth - can you remember how enthusiastic you played during those dark, cold and wet midweek games (or training) ?
 
Another good system for the in-players is when you spot a game still at 0-0 around 65 mins into the game - I would put a bet (for arguments sake - £3) on a single goal to be scored as soon as odds hit 1.7, and then straight away a £2 bet on the over 1.5 market. The 1.5 market would have decent odds at around 5.2, and if it didn't come off, then the full stake was covered by the 0.5 goal bet - no loss across the pair of bets. The trick is to spot the high-scoring games' potentials so they get those 2 goals before the whistle. I mention this because I just spotted the 2 German Bundesliga 2 games both at 0-0 at 65 mins in ! And yes, I just did those above bets on them !! :D
Of course, a 0-0 finish means a £5 loss, but that's why you carefully check whether it's worth the bet in the first place.
 
LOL - 82 mins now and both games still 0-0 !! Probably serves me right to bet on a couple of games just 2 games into the season !
 
Ah well... both games finished 0-0 despite one of the games' away teams getting a red card with over 20 mins to play. And this despite the league's average (although only 2 rounds in) being over 3 goals per game !
Ordinarily I wouldn't have bet on these games unless they were about a third of the way into their respective seasons... momentary lapse of reason - that's why it's called gambling ! :rofl:
 
Haha - Great minds think alike. I've been monitoring selections on forebets for over 3.0 goal av. for betting on the 2.5 market. Appears to be quite a nice strike rate on the top flight European leagues....just have to watch the odds are not too low. I adjusted one of the automations for placing a bet (£5) at 10mins in with stops and cash out ( the original started at HT if it was 0-0 and was for the over 1.5 market). There was only one goal around at 74min (Braga/Moscow game). Stop loss worked (at £1.40) so went in for same stake manually (£5) and a £2 bet for 3 goals from around 80mins at 22's....lol

Just testing and trying the best angle for taking a list of games daily from forebets and running them on auto. I may ask for your help with some of this in the not too distant future. Something like this won't have any benefit to people on this forum so if I could temporarily put up an email address on say my Lay thread and you hit the like button when you have it - I can then delete it - if that's ok with you......I'll see how I get on first.
 
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