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My V.D.W betting Journey!

Well what i looked for formtheory formtheory is first of all we have lets take danzan now it has won lol but you will get the idea.
It is a 6fur race at Ayr class 6 0-65 on good to soft going that is the race in a nutshell so we are looking for winner in the race not of the race.
Now you could say uk racing is the most wierd racing for different tracks in the world all change .
So i would think a horse who has never raced at Ayr i would not be sure if it will act there although is straight forward compared to some.
So if hit on horses form and first thing you see is track and checking you see ran 8 times here before today and 5 times been beaten or won less than 2.25 lengths so runs track well and you see the two bad runs where top class 2 races so it has only run once in class 6 and that was in 2017 so it is dropping in class loves track now distance has won 4 times before today at 6fur so distance is fine also going has won on soft going so wont bother it at all.
Its last run was here to in class 4 and run pretty good with rpr and speed going up so looks like this lower class is ideal not just for a decent run but winner and main man back aboard to.
So is this a race that this horse can win for sure it is so it is a winner in the race not of the race, Now is there any other horses with similar reasoning in race as it is more than possible to have more than one winner in a race but i didn't see it look at the second just beat today by it only run once at ayr from bad draw to be fair but second last so was deff not winner in the race yet run really well and is down to run at york on friday and saturday but looks like more a winner in the race at ripon if appears there.
 
### 🏇 Horse: Our Absent Friends

**Track/Trip**: 3 strong runs over 5f at Musselburgh, all in Class 5 or better
**Setup**: Draw 8 ideal; race has pace to suit hold-up style
**Handicap**: OR 67, dropped 8lb from peak; competitive
**Form Context**: Narrow defeats to better horses; gave 20lbs to Protest Rally
**Trainer Intent**: Jason Hart booked again; consistent placement
**Verdict**: Profiles as a “winner in a race” type—conditions replicate past strong efforts

Some thing i have tried in AI but to be fair he was hopeless he had given me 7 of 10 horses and still nto gave me mine which as you see is OUR ABSENT FRIENDS.
 
### 🏇 Horse: Code Purple

**Race**: 22 July 2025, Musselburgh, 5:00pm, Class 5, 1m Handicap

---

### 1. 🧭 Track & Trip Suitability
- Previous runs at this track/distance: ✅ Yes — multiple runs at Musselburgh over 7f–1m
- Class of those runs: ✅ Class 5 and Class 6
- Performance notes:
- **Won** over 7f and 1m at Musselburgh (Class 6)
- **2nd** in Class 5 over 1m (beaten a short head)
- **4th** in Class 6 over 1m last time, beaten 3½ lengths

---

### 2. 🧠 Race Setup Alignment
- Draw: [TBC based on declarations]
- Likely pace scenario: Moderate pace expected; Code Purple tends to sit midfield
- Running style match: Suits a race where he can settle and challenge late
- Ground conditions: Good — ✅ proven on Good and Good to Firm

---

### 3. 📉 Handicap Positioning
- Current OR: 63
- Previous strong runs off: 60–66
- Weight today: [TBC]
- Relative to best form: ✅ Still within range of winning mark

---

### 4. 🔍 Form Context
- Recent runs:
- 4th of 9 at Musselburgh (1m, Class 6)
- 2nd of 13 at Musselburgh (1m, Class 5)
- 1st of 9 at Musselburgh (1m, Class 6)
- Hidden merit: Often runs well without winning; beaten narrowly in stronger races
- Replicable pattern: ✅ Yes — consistent at Musselburgh over this trip

---

### 5. 🧪 Trainer & Intent
- Trainer record at track/class: Ben Haslam places him well here
- Jockey booking: Paul Mulrennan has ridden him in multiple placed efforts
- Placement signs: Back at Musselburgh after solid run; mark unchanged

---

### ✅ Verdict
**Code Purple** profiles as a “winner in a race” type because he’s consistently run well at Musselburgh over this trip and class, is still competitively handicapped, and has a running style suited to today’s setup. He’s not flashy, but he’s reliable—and if the race unfolds evenly, he’s got the form to win.

Thats my second one with his help.
 
### 🏇 Horse: Blue Collar Lad

**Race**: 22 July 2025, Lingfield, 5:22pm, Class 6 Handicap, 6f, Turf

---

### 1. 🧭 Track & Trip Suitability
- Previous runs at this track/distance: ✅ Yes — multiple runs at Lingfield over 6f–7f
- Class of those runs: ✅ Class 6
- Performance notes:
- **Won** over 7f at Lingfield (Heavy) on 7 June 2025
- **3rd** over 7f at Lingfield (Good to Firm) on 21 June 2025
- **Course winner**, handles both soft and firm ground

---

### 2. 🧠 Race Setup Alignment
- Draw: Stall 2
- Likely pace scenario: Moderate to strong pace; several front-runners declared
- Running style match: Sits midfield; benefits from pace collapse
- Ground conditions: Good to Firm — ✅ proven on this going

---

### 3. 📉 Handicap Positioning
- Current OR: 53
- Previous strong runs off: 53–56
- Weight today: 9-4 (with 7lb claim from Tyrese Cameron)
- Relative to best form: ✅ Well-treated; won off 46 and placed off 53

---

### 4. 🔍 Form Context
- Recent runs:
- **1st** at Lingfield (7f, Heavy, Class 6)
- **3rd** at Lingfield (7f, Good to Firm, Class 6)
- **Consistent** in low-grade turf handicaps
- Hidden merit: Handles varying ground; strong run behind better-rated horses
- Replicable pattern: ✅ Yes — performs well at Lingfield under similar setups

---

### 5. 🧪 Trainer & Intent
- Trainer record at track/class: Daniel Steele — targets Class 6 turf races
- Jockey booking: Tyrese Cameron (7lb claimer) — rode him to recent win
- Placement signs: Back at Lingfield quickly after placing; same mark

---

### ✅ Verdict
**Blue Collar Lad** profiles as a “winner in a race” type due to his proven form at Lingfield, consistent efforts under similar conditions, and a favourable draw with a pace setup that suits his style. Well-handicapped and partnered with a claimer who knows him—he’s a live contender if the race unfolds as expected.

My final one with help from AI well not sure he helped i had to give him the winners lol.
 
mick said:
Cheers for the memory as Mtoto remains much missed. Hopefully he is currently giving Bull and VDW a good finger wagging. :)
Click to expand...
I bet he’s got the Erin Numbers off VDW and still told VDW he was wrong 😀. The think I like about Mtoto is that none one could ever persuade him to change what he was doing. At least he is with Danny now, his son as they had a few discussions between them about VDW. His son Danny was on the Old peach forum (Mtoto was not on that forum) Danny would post “The old man says “

Sadly Mtoto told me years later in an email that Danny had been killed in a car crash .
 
I remember getting many a good win of the horse mtoto very good horse, think it was michael roberts rode it.
 
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