• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

my speed horses.

Sticking to what i see as 4 solid bets today.

4 20 ASCOT LOS ANGELES. There is no hiding i think this is the best horse out this year and it is in a tough race today but i must include it.
There is no doubt ANMAAT was traveling like absolute cert against it last time but got out battled late on and i can see why everyone would fancy it to turn tables as was this ones first run. But i just see the same happening again and arguably slightly tougher course can out stay it again and as long as the pace is up which i am sure obrien will make sure might even kick on earlier today and really go for it half mile out as it deff stays.
MAP OF STARS is easily a other horse you would have as bet in other races but this is cracker.

5 00 ASCOT QIRAT This horse just beat by hickory last time and that form is best here and stepping up i feel will suit it again.
The man of the moment riding it and i feel when trainer mentioned other day he has a couple hes looking forward to in handicaps but cant say much, This is the horse he is looking at for that reason and i just cant see it not running massive race.

7 00 RIPON MODERN TIMES. This horse went to easterby and ran a cracker first time up for him and looks blot today droping back to 6fur looks weird to be fair after running on over 7fur but i just think they have found race to win and cant help but run it.

7 30 RIPON LORD PROTECTOR. This is a bit of a crazy horse needs lead down or mounted late on all sorts but has ability and i think stepping up to mile half is good move let it settle better and if you go back to run behind have a secret is spot on to win this i feel will go very close.
Looks like the stepped it up in class ever run to get it fit for win which i hope is today.
 
LOS ANGELES disappointed but ANMAAT run really well again. QIRAT run no race weakened back other day for it. MODERN TIMES won as expected. LORD PROTECTOR run well but i feel got boxed in to much could have been closer.
So today a little different slant on things with ascot being so tough maybe need dutch a little or least cover some bets .

5 00 ASCOT- LA BOTTE,TEROOM,PAROLE D'ORO. So three here maybe LA BOTTE edges it but very tight so all three would show profit.
5 35 ASCOT- TRINITY COLLEGE, DETAIN. Really nothing between these two i preferred DETAIN but maybe taking 1/1 on both or is it worth it not sure.
6 10 ASCOT- GLENEAGLE BOY ,ROI DE FRANCE, Again GELNEAGLE BOY edges it but with other one better at weights and cheeks on first time worth both.
3 50 RIPON COMMANCHE FALLS, IRISH NECTAR. I did already fancy COMMANCHE FALLS strongest of these two so it would just be little saver on other one as you never know.
7 50 WETHERBY COSMAS RAJ,JEZ BOMB. I do feel COSMAS RAJ has improved and consistent although worse of in weights here but i feel both worth bets.
8 50 WETHERBY TITANIUM, Does look similar as yesterdays winner as in should win this.
8 40 LINGFIELD AURORA MAJESTY. I feel back on all weather and down in right class could go better than odds suggest.
3 23 CHELMSFORD FIDELIUS. To say its last run was lower rpr just does not make sense to me so has given bit of value to this one.

Like i keep saying don't get greedy be wise how you bet them, place them, cover them ,dutch them, bet them to win straight out if feel right.
As i keep saying to myself get that money back first then worry about profit.
People who don't know horses keep saying its a mugs game but its not its just a game played by a lot of mugs there is a difference.
Don't be a mug do what your mum told you when you where little watch crossing the road, Its same principal look before you leap.
Mugs don't look and expect to be carried across road by angels does not work like that keep looking till you see then take your time looking every day and believe it or not we do learn every day.
So never get stuck into believing you have the perfect solution as there is no such thing.
LOOK BEFORE YOU CROSS LOOK BEFORE YOU BET and the day you stop looking is the day you are a MUG.
As long as you keep looking you might still be called a mug but there is more likelihood that its the person calling you a mug who is the mug.
 
If a Rock falls on the Mug its unfortunate for the Mug if the Mug falls on a rock its unfortunate for the Mug its always unfortunate for the Mug.

Behind closed doors still used by Bookmakers to describe the customers they want to keep. !
 
After a lot of thought tonight i have decided that speed is only part of form and not fair to put up horses with maybe not enough structure to make them bets, Not saying they cant win but the amount of horses i have gave here and although one brilliant day still puts me well ahead after analysing a lot just like today most run to there marks beaten by the right distance to make there runs fair but not good enough as in these higher class races where just simple out classed on the day.
I will personally keep my speed ratings going for myself as part of my study but will finish this thread.
And i will try build on it with other things and if hopefully come back with some thing more adapt to find winners.
 
I agree totally mick mick learning all the time and enjoying the process of new thinking keeps me going.
I just felt that racing is not as simple as following one guide and was not fair to just put them up for sake of being speed horses i need to only use ones that are fancied for a lot more , As i noticed after they run well in fast race a lot put them up in class and they run down park to.
And its this reading of whats happening and as i said before makes sense after tough quick race might need time to recover more than given so can be other angle of waiting till you feel time is right which would mean less bets and less horses mentioned.
Just like today there is one horse who would have been a mentioned speed horse today BLINKY 8 13 GOODWOOD this horse run well behind redorange in 15k race and then stepped up as i said a lot do to 39k race and run even better not beat far.
I just cant understand why this is not fav i know can be slow away at times and not ideal for goodwood that but must have big chance in this as i rate its form better than the favs.
 
You are clearly right, gerry gerry, that speed is not the only consideration and I think it is the complexity that races throw up which makes analysing them interesting as well as challenging.

The race of most interest to me today is the 7.15 Newmarket where the highest rated on VDW's main ability rating is Expert Agent, and he happens also to have, using TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's ratings, the best sf since 01/01/24, albeit not a good sf for his most recent run. So, for a VDWer, the "best" horse and a good place to start.

Expert Agent won only once as a 4yo, a class 57, average OR 81.3, off 74, for which he was raised to 79.

Looking at the horse's further four races in 2024, where he failed to come in the first ten, the conclusion I draw is that connections were surprised he had won the 57 (he started at 40/1 as tenth in the betting in an eleven horse race) and had zero confidence that he could win again off the new mark or anything like it. The four placements look very much like a plan to reduce Expert Agent's OR.

If so, the plan succeeded and he started this year off 72, below his previous winning mark. First time out after seven months off, in a class 63, average OR 73.2, Expert Agent came a reasonable 3rd, beaten 2.5l, at 12/1.

Off the same mark, lto he was dropped in class, 57, average OR 71.7, and beaten a similar distance, which was arguably disappointing as he should presumably have been fitter. BUT it was the first time he had run on turf slower than good, which may or may not have been a factor.

Today, now off 70, he is dropped substantially in class, 53, average OR 65.7, and has good going, the same as when he won.

So from one perspective it looks as though he is being placed to win: presumably pretty fit after two runs, back on good and dropped into the weakest field he has faced since he was a 2yo.

However, then the complexity sets in. The win was at Windsor, a "speed" course, and his three 3yo only handicap wins had been on "speed" courses. He has run seven times on "power" courses, so far without success. Just as was good/soft lto significant, is the fact that today he runs on a "power" course significant?

At this stage in Expert Agent's career I don't think firm conclusions can be drawn on either, and I would be wholly unimpressed by any conclusion which purported to be based on "breeding".

Should Expert Agent win, one could, with hindsight, label him a "good thing". But although winning is certainly a possibility, at this stage, ie before the race, VDW's other main rating, of form status, points strongly not to back him, and looking further down the ability ratings ranking, where third rated Ziggy's Queen emerges as the VDW class/form horse.

So, a race with from my point of view quite a lot of interest, with in Expert Agent a horse who, if successful, I'd feel a passing regret for not having backed, and in Ziggy's Queen a class/form horse somewhat short of rock solid status, in both cases because of unknowables within the range of pertinent considerations. In short, what I mostly find when analysing a race. But I am patient by temperament.
 
I have made slight adjustment to give hopefully my selections more of a chance like i said a lot jump up in class and really don't have much chance no matter what speed they do in certain classes so taking that into consideration along with making sure the money is positive for them in morning which i think is crucial part of racing even more so now i am left with these selections today which i have lumped together and will be the 4 main horses that will decide if i do really well today.

CIRCE 3 45 NEWMARKET . I have noticed trecelyn trecelyn went for this horse to which is always nice to see other guys selecting it.
This horse really ran well last time out when you look at its form you would be surprised it could go so quick at epsom when it has won at newmarket and even won over mile at newbury.
So we know it stays and yet seems to be a horse getting faster as it gets older so now back here i feel will take a lot of stopping in this.
CRUYFF TURN ran well yesterday franking form.

PARK STREET 4 45 REDCAR. This is likely the easiest race this horse has run in since winning little race at kempton 4 year ago.
Seems to run a lot at beverley trainer does not have much to go with but i feel this is a horse she will be dying to get winner from and this is surely the best chance they have had and looks like today should be the day.
All the horse who finished in front of it in the last race have franked the form not by winning but by running well in better races yet this one is going for worse race so that alone gives me big confidence

MON NA SLIEVE 4 50 AYR. Seems you can get good race bad race good race bad race from this horse and its due good race but they have really dropped it into race where good race is not enough it needs to win it.
Not beat to far by AMERICAN AFFAIR not once but twice should say it all in this race.

INTO BATTLE 8 15 HAYDOCK. This horse has run well and last time really did show improved form which it does seem to do when steps up in class. It has not won a handicap yet but now down to lowest mark and dropping in class they have best chance yet today.
 
Last edited:
JennyK said:
You are clearly right, gerry gerry, that speed is not the only consideration and I think it is the complexity that races throw up which makes analysing them interesting as well as challenging.

The race of most interest to me today is the 7.15 Newmarket where the highest rated on VDW's main ability rating is Expert Agent, and he happens also to have, using TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's ratings, the best sf since 01/01/24, albeit not a good sf for his most recent run. So, for a VDWer, the "best" horse and a good place to start.

Expert Agent won only once as a 4yo, a class 57, average OR 81.3, off 74, for which he was raised to 79.

Looking at the horse's further four races in 2024, where he failed to come in the first ten, the conclusion I draw is that connections were surprised he had won the 57 (he started at 40/1 as tenth in the betting in an eleven horse race) and had zero confidence that he could win again off the new mark or anything like it. The four placements look very much like a plan to reduce Expert Agent's OR.

If so, the plan succeeded and he started this year off 72, below his previous winning mark. First time out after seven months off, in a class 63, average OR 73.2, Expert Agent came a reasonable 3rd, beaten 2.5l, at 12/1.

Off the same mark, lto he was dropped in class, 57, average OR 71.7, and beaten a similar distance, which was arguably disappointing as he should presumably have been fitter. BUT it was the first time he had run on turf slower than good, which may or may not have been a factor.

Today, now off 70, he is dropped substantially in class, 53, average OR 65.7, and has good going, the same as when he won.

So from one perspective it looks as though he is being placed to win: presumably pretty fit after two runs, back on good and dropped into the weakest field he has faced since he was a 2yo.

However, then the complexity sets in. The win was at Windsor, a "speed" course, and his three 3yo only handicap wins had been on "speed" courses. He has run seven times on "power" courses, so far without success. Just as was good/soft lto significant, is the fact that today he runs on a "power" course significant?

At this stage in Expert Agent's career I don't think firm conclusions can be drawn on either, and I would be wholly unimpressed by any conclusion which purported to be based on "breeding".

Should Expert Agent win, one could, with hindsight, label him a "good thing". But although winning is certainly a possibility, at this stage, ie before the race, VDW's other main rating, of form status, points strongly not to back him, and looking further down the ability ratings ranking, where third rated Ziggy's Queen emerges as the VDW class/form horse.

So, a race with from my point of view quite a lot of interest, with in Expert Agent a horse who, if successful, I'd feel a passing regret for not having backed, and in Ziggy's Queen a class/form horse somewhat short of rock solid status, in both cases because of unknowables within the range of pertinent considerations. In short, what I mostly find when analysing a race. But I am patient by temperament.
Click to expand...
Expert analysis JennyK JennyK
 
Thank you. I have long got over my "passing regret". Now replaced by the regret that among the four sprint handicaps I've analysed today - 3.21 Redcar, 3.45 Newmarket, and 4.50 and 8.08 Ayr - I haven't so far found a bet.

Circe in the 3.45 Newmarket comes closest. Top in the field on ability (always a major plus) and, like Expert Agent yesterday, also with the best sf since 01/01/24 on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's ratings. But in addition to the weight, the strength of the key horse support for its last run is somewhat lacking and it needs to show significant improvement to win (possible rather than probable) . The current 3.05 on Betfair seems very short, though in fairness it is not easy to see what will beat it. I hope it wins, given that gerry gerry has selected it, but unlike with Expert Agent, I'll have no regret for not backing it if it does.
 
Yeah was pretty good JennyK JennyK hoped for three but cant grumble i thought jockey gave park street shocking ride but horse seems to do that a lot.
 
Well going today i was fortunate to bet this horse at 2/1 last night but as this is now for horses who get backed and speed horses i obviously do have to wait till morning/
But as i suspected this horse has been gambled in and PARTISAN HERO 4 50 PONTEFRACT.
This horse is similar to the one yesterday who won in CIRCE in that seems to be getting faster as gets older.
Was winning over a mile here at ponte and winning yet in last two races dropped back in distance and managed to lead at chester and epsom which is no mean feat.
It has never been out the first three since coming from ireland so is very consistent and the most amazing thing is even the great d weld never tried it over sprints to start yet breed to be fast , which tells me it was just backward not slow.
Mark going up for its form but dropping in distance i think will be very hard to beat today.
 
gerry said:
Well going today i was fortunate to bet this horse at 2/1 last night but as this is now for horses who get backed and speed horses i obviously do have to wait till morning/
But as i suspected this horse has been gambled in and PARTISAN HERO 4 50 PONTEFRACT.
This horse is similar to the one yesterday who won in CIRCE in that seems to be getting faster as gets older.
Was winning over a mile here at ponte and winning yet in last two races dropped back in distance and managed to lead at chester and epsom which is no mean feat.
It has never been out the first three since coming from ireland so is very consistent and the most amazing thing is even the great d weld never tried it over sprints to start yet breed to be fast , which tells me it was just backward not slow.
Mark going up for its form but dropping in distance i think will be very hard to beat today.
Click to expand...
It was the only race I looked at today and was totally flummoxed by all the 7f form on offer. I came to 3 different conclusions. 1. My top rated Havanah Blue would justify its rating over this shorter trip. 2. Northern Spirit had the best 6f form on offer and would place at the very least. 3. One of the 3 year olds Rare Change or Native Instinct would improve and take it.

In the end I drew a line under it and filed it under one to look at again when the race has been run and see where if anywhere I was correct and where I was wrong. There seems to be plenty of these class 2/3 races over 6f around at the moment

Best of luck today Gerry
 
trecelyn said:
It was the only race I looked at today and was totally flummoxed by all the 7f form on offer. I came to 3 different conclusions. 1. My top rated Havanah Blue would justify its rating over this shorter trip. 2. Northern Spirit had the best 6f form on offer and would place at the very least. 3. One of the 3 year olds Rare Change or Native Instinct would improve and take it.

In the end I drew a line under it and filed it under one to look at again when the race has been run and see where if anywhere I was correct and where I was wrong. There seems to be plenty of these class 2/3 races over 6f around at the moment

Best of luck today Gerry
Click to expand...
Scenario 3 landed the spoils today. Interestingly the next race that interests me this week is the Salisbury 3.55 on Wednesday and there is a 3 year old that tops my ratings, Topwarrior looks to have a good chance should he take his chance.
 
trecelyn said:
Scenario 3 landed the spoils today. Interestingly the next race that interests me this week is the Salisbury 3.55 on Wednesday and there is a 3 year old that tops my ratings, Topwarrior looks to have a good chance should he take his chance.
Click to expand...
A man with a plan (y) trecelyn trecelyn - see that Beckett also has his Noel Fox in that race - was punted on two back and flopped (not for the first time) but pulled away with the Kubler hotpot last time over a furlong longer at the same course 10 days ago. Topwarrior appears to have the stronger ratings profile though from lesser amount of starts.

just noticed that both King Power projects
Noel Fox holds 4 entries this week which is significant for Beckett and will probably go elsewhere
 
Last edited:
ARAZI91 said:
A man with a plan (y) trecelyn trecelyn - see that Beckett also has his Noel Fox in that race - was punted on two back and flopped (not for the first time) but pulled away with the Kubler hotpot last time over a furlong longer at the same course 10 days ago. Topwarrior appears to have the stronger ratings profile though from lesser amount of starts.

just noticed that both King Power projects
Noel Fox holds 4 entries this week which is significant for Beckett and will probably go elsewhere
Click to expand...
Topwarrior has been pulled from race and has 2 entries on weekend, the 3 year old handicap at York looks the easier of the 2 options at the moment. Noel Fox is still in and I prefer it to the likely favourite Montpelier, of the older horses Dark Thirty is my pick at moment.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top