my speed horses.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
As you seen with that first one you cant just bet them blind as the class and ground are crucial to understand there chances and course of course.
Like today the only one is the horse that finished right behind grace angel out today REGAL ENVOY 4 10 NEMARKET but again stepping up in class maybe even more so and actually has a liking for bath where it run fourth.
So although oisin murphy on it and won on it before, in this class you would think is for other day. And could argue ground not right yet.
I wont be on it in this have went for a classier horse in this myself but as not a speed horse wont mention it here.
Like today the only one is the horse that finished right behind grace angel out today REGAL ENVOY 4 10 NEMARKET but again stepping up in class maybe even more so and actually has a liking for bath where it run fourth.
So although oisin murphy on it and won on it before, in this class you would think is for other day. And could argue ground not right yet.
I wont be on it in this have went for a classier horse in this myself but as not a speed horse wont mention it here.
JennyK
Gelding
gerry Like you, I am exploring possible uses for sfs, namely the two uses to which VDW put them.
I'm using those
TheBluesBrother kindly posts every day, because he calculates his on the actual distance of the race whereas those in the Post are sometimes notional - 5f when in actual fact the course in 5f 30 yards or whatever. Accurate measurement of both distance and time seem to me to be necessary requirements, and on at least one the Post's are wanting.I've looked at the Newmarket race and the sf data I use is the best in 2024 and the current year, and for VDW time/merit purposes I use the better of the two. In today's field a couple of the runners have improved on their best last year, but the clear best overall since 01/01/24, unless I've made copying errors, are Toca Madera 80 and The XO 79. Regal Envoy much lower, 63.
Good luck with your bet. Like the 3.42 Ripon, a good race but in both too many "returners" for me to get involved.
gerry
Mare
Only one speed horse tomorrow and is jumping up in class and with wet weather about is ground went against it.
You would think so but MON NA SLIEVE won well last time and easily , still a youngish horse and could be just improving now got grass.
Not sure why Shane Gray did not keep ride either as at meeting but we will see how it goes.
I think will show good speed and see if ground tells late on.
You would think so but MON NA SLIEVE won well last time and easily , still a youngish horse and could be just improving now got grass.
Not sure why Shane Gray did not keep ride either as at meeting but we will see how it goes.
I think will show good speed and see if ground tells late on.
gerry
Mare
Well i am being strict now only betting horses who have chance in my book to follow or run against them.
So today there was little to go on if anything but there is one who finished further back in the form i have followed already here.
MISS SHOW OFF was back in 6th behind tourist but is from a stable who isnt quiet firing yet so taking that in to consideration and the fact its a lightly raced horse i think it could come on a ton now from run, It will need to improve to win but there was encouragement as it got closer in that last race to royal envoy than it did in its last race last year to same horse and if it improves will run big race .
The other horse i looked at and i must be honest i am just mentioning it as it was one of those unusual 2yold last year who got in my book which few do at that age and won for me also. So i think if ENGLEMERE has come on could go well today might need 6fur now but first time out would not be biggest shock if went well.
Looking at tomorrows i thought would be nothing till i looked at all weather and i see BOTANICAL running that was good performance when last time out and i see the second is in the race to CHECKANDCHALLANGE but after having wind op and a year younger i feel there might be more to come from botanical and has run here twice before will help. Does like a bit of cut in ground but there is enough evidence to show it can run well.
So today there was little to go on if anything but there is one who finished further back in the form i have followed already here.
MISS SHOW OFF was back in 6th behind tourist but is from a stable who isnt quiet firing yet so taking that in to consideration and the fact its a lightly raced horse i think it could come on a ton now from run, It will need to improve to win but there was encouragement as it got closer in that last race to royal envoy than it did in its last race last year to same horse and if it improves will run big race .
The other horse i looked at and i must be honest i am just mentioning it as it was one of those unusual 2yold last year who got in my book which few do at that age and won for me also. So i think if ENGLEMERE has come on could go well today might need 6fur now but first time out would not be biggest shock if went well.
Looking at tomorrows i thought would be nothing till i looked at all weather and i see BOTANICAL running that was good performance when last time out and i see the second is in the race to CHECKANDCHALLANGE but after having wind op and a year younger i feel there might be more to come from botanical and has run here twice before will help. Does like a bit of cut in ground but there is enough evidence to show it can run well.
gerry
Mare
My one for tomorrow i feel will run decent race is SPARTAN ARROW 1 35 EPSOM I think should get away well enough and track could suit and last time out traveled really well in a decent race which is very similar to this race, Of same mark and cheeks on for first time i am surprised i got 7/1 it.
More than value i feel for this.
More than value i feel for this.
JennyK
Gelding
Perhaps being tougher than will prove justified, I have none of the top four on ability in the 1.35 Epsom as form horses, and make the equal 5th ranked, Spartan Arrow and Almaty Star, form horses so they for me are joint class/form horses. (May be being tough on One Night Stand and Jumbeau as cases of sorts could be made for viewing them as form horses.)
Trying to understand Spartan Arrow's last run compared to his previous, winning, one, a point which stands out is weight. He carried the same in both races (9.11, as he does tomorrow), but in his last race he was giving weight to every other runner, to several quite a lot. He was top weight when he won, but giving much less weight away on average to the rest. Tomorrow's field, weight-wise, looks more like that of his last race rather than when he won. (When he won, apart from his co-top weight he gave on average just over 5lb to the rest of the field. Ignoring claims some, but not Spartan Arrow, had, he gave on average 12lb to the others on his last run. Similarly ignoring other runners' claims, tomorrow he gives an average of nearly 11lb.)
There is no doubt that Spartan Arrow can carry 9.11 successfully, but whether he can tomorrow, giving such a lot of weight away to all his competitors, is another matter. That, and the sense that I may have been too tough on two of those rated higher on ability, puts me off backing him, despite him sharing one sometimes significant characteristic with Metaverse today - both were beaten favourites lto, now running at a significantly higher price.
Good luck with him.
Trying to understand Spartan Arrow's last run compared to his previous, winning, one, a point which stands out is weight. He carried the same in both races (9.11, as he does tomorrow), but in his last race he was giving weight to every other runner, to several quite a lot. He was top weight when he won, but giving much less weight away on average to the rest. Tomorrow's field, weight-wise, looks more like that of his last race rather than when he won. (When he won, apart from his co-top weight he gave on average just over 5lb to the rest of the field. Ignoring claims some, but not Spartan Arrow, had, he gave on average 12lb to the others on his last run. Similarly ignoring other runners' claims, tomorrow he gives an average of nearly 11lb.)
There is no doubt that Spartan Arrow can carry 9.11 successfully, but whether he can tomorrow, giving such a lot of weight away to all his competitors, is another matter. That, and the sense that I may have been too tough on two of those rated higher on ability, puts me off backing him, despite him sharing one sometimes significant characteristic with Metaverse today - both were beaten favourites lto, now running at a significantly higher price.
Good luck with him.
gerry
Mare
The thing that gives me encouragement is mon na slieve ran really well up 5lb and class 2 last time where as this horse has same mark , Which would give it big chance even in that class 2 .
Then you look when it last run in class 2 was just beat in 3rd and same mark again so this is not beyond it only slight doubt i have is track but everything else points to big run.
Then you look when it last run in class 2 was just beat in 3rd and same mark again so this is not beyond it only slight doubt i have is track but everything else points to big run.
