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Horses with chance.

Hi gerry gerry , because it's so quiet on here today i thought i would have a look at this 8.00 race where you mention TOMORROW'S DAY has a solid place chance and in many ways i would agree but like so often in my experience the deeper you look into the race the more complicated it gets.
Clearly newc suits him along with the 6f, his first win over c/d was last sept off a mark of 47, he's gone on to win 4 more races since and now finds himself on a mark of 65, this is when pundits start using phrases suggesting the handicapper has caught up with him but i don't agree.
Let's take 2 runs back, in my opinion they went too slow for him and he stayed on at one pace to get 3rd behind horses rated 70 & 71.
Last time out he was 2nd behind REBECCA'S GIRL btn over 2L but trying to give her 12lbs so nothing much wrong with that effort especially since the winner has come out and won since to possibly boost the form.

If we're talking "places" then the hope is that there might be a few here that might struggle, conversely we need to consider the main threats ?

In my view BELLAGIO MAN has also demonstrated a certain consistency and acts well on c/d so a worthy opponent imo.

MAYO COUNTY might be another, she comes off a lay off but her all weather form shows more than is obvious albeit 7f but i think there's enough there to be worthy of consideration.

Back to TOMORROWS DAY and this is my long winded way of saying i agree with your assessment that he has solid look for a place at least, a quick glance at the market shows he's gone 3/1 - 5/1, is he a tryer ? Always needs to be a consideration but something we don't know, good luck.
 
Thanks T tacker its nice to chat about the race not enough do that in any forums just chilling about racing in general.
I do agree with bellagio man but think he is more tend to get in behind and need run and every little bit can make differance.
I just feel TOMORROWS DAY is far more consistant and been staying on well lately which is what your looking for when place anyway.
 
The stable had three winners this month to which makes me think would be surprised if they dont try exspecially of same mark last twice when placed but your right the time will come they need let it get better mark i think a win before hand would be good for them not that i need win.
 
Well got 1.62 superstylin for three places so was could chance to pick up some winnings.
Now need love true here at 2.12 four places.
 
gerry gerry

On class and form, I think Tomorrow's Day is exactly the sort of horse that should provide two place wins out of three.

Plainly well-suited by 6f at Newcastle, he has won or placed in his four previous this year and given it is only 20 February he should be as fit as he can possibly be.

He is not in my view the VDW class/form horse as given the respective class of the two races - pen value and strength of field (AOR) - I don't see his last run as quite as good as his penultimate one, though the POst's comments suggest there may be a genuine excuse for that. Unlike the class/form horse, he is well proven on a stiffer track.

Just Ten High may take to Newcastle like a duck to water and he is without doubt a VDW form horse, but he is below Tomorrow's Day on all three measures of ability I use (VDW's basic one and best sfs 2024 and 2025).

Bellagio Man is clearly also a possible winner and in fact is better off than Tomorrow's Day and Just Ten High on my measure of performance.

Assuming Just Ten High takes to Newcastle, this looks as though it will be very competitive and I wouldn't want to back any of the three outright to win as I think they all have genuine chances to do so. But it will surprise me if your selection fails to make the first three and at currently better than evens on Betfair for three places looks a fair price.

ps

After writing and posting the above I see that the other two you named have placed. Makes me a bit superstitious for Tomorrow's Day!
 
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Yeah true JennyK JennyK but you can get 1/1 a place looks worth it to me and makes it interesting race with peoples input just more enjoyable to watch now.
I think it is also a young horse compared to rest in race which makes it more likely to be consistant and improve than they likes of bellagio man and captain vallo.
And since he put a visor on this horse dont forget only 4old it has run 13 times and been in first 3 11times only just missing out other twice.
 
We are off to the theatre again tonight so won't see the race, but when we get back and I check the results I hope to see Tomorrow's Day among the first three as I have had a place bet on him myself.
 
The finale tonight has a seemingly well treated horse in
Rebecca's Girl.

what is interesting, in the context of TD, is that last time RG beat Tomorrow's Day
and previously beat Concert Boy who was 3rd in the 7.0
 
Funny enough i never touched that race T Thomas as was to short so compleatly dismissed race.
As when have one very short ruins it for place only if you think the short will be placed makes less chance for others.
 
Thanks, gerry gerry, a reasonably enjoyable evening, and pleased to find Tomorrow's Day made the frame all right. I haven't seen a recording of the race yet but the Post comments suggest he was never likely to be outside the first three.

Glad you started your experiment with place only bets. One swallow and all that, but it looks like a potential money-making strategy when, like today, a race looks too competitive for a win bet.
 
Many A Star (6.15 Southwell) looked a possible follow up for me from Tomorrow's Day, as on the aw, in today's kind of class, he has only been out of the frame for Jamie Osborne twice in ten; on his first run for the trainer after seven months off the track and more recently when drawn 11 of 11 at Wolverhampton. The wide draw isn't quite the black spot over 6f as it is over 5f, but from it a race takes some winning.

However, I see two problems:

on my performance measure Many A Star will have to show as much improvement again today as he did on each of his last two runs/wins. If he were a 4yo, or even a 5yo, that wouldn't worry me, but he is now an 8yo. Not impossible that he will show the necessary improvement but ...

there are simply too many others who, on my figures, also have decent chances, including the VDW class/form horse, Twilight Romance (who will also need to show improvement to win but he is a 4yo, though off for seven months may need the run), both the other 4yos and a couple of old-timers facing the weakest competition they have for months (in Rohaan's case, years).

So while Many A Star may very well place, for me he is too risky today.
 
Nice post JennyK JennyK , I simply chose CHIEF MANKATO purely on his c/d time two races back which isn’t very scientific but has attracted a few bob.
Good luck.
 
I think Chief Mankato has a genuine chance, T tacker. He recorded the best sf of the now 4yos last year, he ran well on his aw debut and improved on that performance when pushed up quite a long way in class on 02/11/25, but then ran down the field when dropped in class. However, like Many A Star's 18/11/24 run, that run was from a very wide draw at Wolverhampton. The other obvious concern is that he has been off the track for three months, which for a sprinter having runs on the aw invites the question why?

No surprise if he wins, but sadly I think the same about the majority of the runners so even a place only looks too fraught.
 
I think a interesting race tonight and with ROHANN having first taste of southwell last time out and its liking for stiff to get home tracks this could be ideal for it to at least place will be staying on for sure.
And droping to class 4 must at least have chance to get in first three for me.
 
That was a fine exsample your looking for in a place horse in that race there keppel queen improving nicely over hurdles with cheeks on staying on well on stiff track like carlisle , then he takes cheeks of and trys it over fences but falls right away which is god send.
So in soft ground at easier track runs it back over hurdles with cheeks straight back on you know it will stay on never looked like being out place.
 
This is all my noted horses for place today .
KEPPEL QUEEN 1 40 WARWICK already placed so to late.
DEMNAT 2 40 WARWICK not sure can get enough odds.
CASI CRUDO 3 10 WARWICK
LANESBOROUGH 3 40 WARWICK again unlikely get odds not less go first two.
THE MIDWIFE 4 10 WARWICK same again could be no bet with odds.
JACKS PARRET 3 30 EXETER
SPEIRUIL 4 30 EXETER
ROHANN 6 15 SOUTHWELL should get 1/2 three places or no bet
WINDSOR PASS 7 45 SOUTHWELL
HUMBLE SPARK 8 15 SOUTHWELL

As you see there is odds issues with some so i take it as it comes per race and see if there is odds i can make it worth while betting , every bit counts ofcourse but wont take less than 1/2 and not keen taking two places but some time you get feel closer to off.
 
Well last one let me down for 7 from 7 over jumps for place, But good day just the same and tonights all runing for profit now.
 
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