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Horses with chance.

gerry

gerry

Mare
Been little while since put any fancies up so will see how this goes dont imagine will be alot.
PLANNED PARADISE 12 35 WINCANTON.
This horse has been running really well and is at a mark it should be ready to get a win under belt again.
Stable not hit any form but with poor horses so far and this one is his best hope of getting winner so far jockey seems ok with 2 winners from 9 rides in last 5 years so hasnt really been getting involved in riding much.
Its last run over 3 miles at cheltenham run well and now droping back to 2 and half but its wins are at this distance so looks like might benifit for easier time and will be surprised if not close today.
I got 9/2 last night see its 4/1 now.
 
Finished third and looked like needs further now.
But i think there is one for tonight who should win easy.
EXSISTENT 5 10 CHELMSFORD. This horse has not bad all weather form and of this mark should hack up tonight.
Won its only run round here of 83 now of 81 and that was better race and been running on alot better races than this looking at its ascot run this is differant class.
 
Really disapointed with yesterday two thirds but thats racing as they say.
And today i found it little tricky to get anything close but the one who i think could go well runs in the last at sandown.
FASEL 3 35 SANDOWN this horse ran good race on flat with first time tounge tie and they added cheeks last time which i think where first time as dosnt say that but looks like it to me.
I think the run was better than first looks maybe needed the race and i think they will have it ready to win now.
Its hard horse to work out so far but i think it has to be better than these to nichols horse.
 
Finally got a winner to get going.
And looking at todays racing there is only one horse that sticks out to me PROTEKTOROT 1 50 HUNTINGDON this horse has easily the ability to win this the only worry is the right handed and to be fair i think thats why your getting better odds for it.
 
Not easy today but there is one i think should have decent chance.
THEATRE MAN 1 42 UTTOX. This stable has not bad record in chases but yet to get a winner this season yet, But had two seconds this month and maybe now finding feet, And this horse is droping back down in class weakened after last on first run back but was probable to far any way this is right distance so although front two in market improvers i think this one could be hard to beat and i think track could be ideal also.
 
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I think horse racing seems to be harder to get a few winners on a day than used to be and thats worrying.
Trying to put my finger on it why that is and all i can assume is there is more meetings and more poor horses running in all these meetings
which makes it quiet simply put aload of dross at the best of times.
Then when you do get good races they seem to be full of horses with similar form which makes them very tricky to get a winner.
So i think the stand out bets are few and big gapes between them.
I think like any sport you can take the class and exspect it to win but class dosnt last for ever like the old saying goes its not permanent.
The only thing we have that is for sure as we all age and thats in every sport is that the day comes we either have little spurts of form or loss it all together.
Look at man utd for while now need new blood in man city four times champs not having a blip now have fell of cliff lately.
And if you would have caught on to these points early enough would have made some nice money betting against them bounzing back.
So in relation to horses i think every time we give them benifit of the doubt in bad run were risking there fine and off day but more than not its more than one off day that follows and alot of times there finished.
So what i am feeling is with so much racing there is alot of races with only one horse in form but the others could have not run for while and hard to say what they will do.
Then there is races with nothing to go on at all which are impossible and there is alot more with more meetings so i think the right races are more crucial than ever to pick out before you even think you have found a race never mind a winner.
So for me i like to see a race where the first three in betting have at least run two or three times this year gives you some sort of guide even today i struggled with that possibly only beau balco with horses round it with form.
 
gerry gerry for myself profitable horse race betting is all about the price and i feel that value odds ( and securing them ) are becoming a harder find, but no one forces us to bet and perhaps patience is the punters biggest edge. ?
 
I agree mick mick patience is every thing and with bookmakers making it impossible with there odds even harder, It seems that every day you feel not getting value with any sport and any little find you seem to get they plug it fast.
At start of internet betting it was like new lease of life now there all at it to either minimize you or block you or offer low odds.
And there just seems to be some thing really wrong with fair play betting .
Betfair was the best thing that ever happened but they had to ruin that too with opening books and also charging which is just wrong.
 
I see betfair changing there charges next year which was nice to hear and the next day after i mentioned them in last post came as surprise.
At least looks like smaller punters can now have free run at it and should bring more back will wait and see.
There really does need to be something done about bookies though ofcourse they need make money but there making millions if not billions of it.
So sure there is a way they could give decent fair odds and not kill the small punter into the bargain.
One thing is sure and always will be more lossers than winners so they need play the game and there could be some thing like betfair where they limit the bet to small amounts like 50 quid max and thats still a big bet for the majority of punters but they would be giving 95 percent of punters a chance of winning now and again.
What i am really surprised at is there is room for an other exchange which only takes bets on sport and no casinos and poker crap and starts fair play again but sticks to the rules of punter v punter with small percentage of every bet for them self.
This would force bookies to think twice again.
 
Back to betting today i think there nothinge easy today.
The horses i thought of last night worth amention are. Not sure what i will bet yet but these are the races i would be looking into.
REGARDE 155 EXETER i just think this horse could have little chance in this track should suit but never run here and not alot of form to go on in race.
MISTER UPTON 3 05 EXETER. alittle more form in this race and seemed to find its form last time out again same weight again helps so should run decent race.
KISS MY FACE 12 22 FFOS.again arace with plenty form i like and this one run close last time, its mark alittle high but should run decent race at least i would think.
JALISCO STAR 12 57 FFOS. tight little affair this but at least this one in form and i think the way it won last time should at least be bang there again.
THE SCORPION KING 2 07 FFOS. this one looked like was about to win and dually did last time round here, But not alot to go on in the others so tricky race and noticed g sheehan cant ride it today as hes away hopefully to ride regarde at exeter which i dont think would have had the choice anyway.
 
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