D
Horses with chance.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
Yeah went really well today only one out place, i think the hard thing is seeing bank slowly climb yet you feel you done amazing and its easy i suppose to try push harder but i will be happy if can go through weekend with any kind of positive + on bank as some time saturdays can be harder but when i checked back last saturday i would have broke even if they where placed bets.
Thats what really got me thinking of place bets and not had a lossing day since last saturday.
Its enjoyable watching to knowing they have more chance and more bets but I am still not sure if i should cut the amount of bets and up the stake on less bets would still be same percentage of bank risked per day.
But for now i will just study form and see what i am left with at end of it and try weekend with same slowly does it approach.
The thing with only three bets or so you could end up with loss if only one up but the next four or five all placed and you left them.
I mean today there was a 72% profit on level bets but only risked 12% of bank so i think i could heave been a little more adventurist and risked 20 % as your sure to get half it back even on bad day.
The big question is do you wait till you double bank then up stakes or do you bet 20% of bank every day no matter what.
Early stages so will tick along over weekend with same stakes see how it goes.
Thats what really got me thinking of place bets and not had a lossing day since last saturday.
Its enjoyable watching to knowing they have more chance and more bets but I am still not sure if i should cut the amount of bets and up the stake on less bets would still be same percentage of bank risked per day.
But for now i will just study form and see what i am left with at end of it and try weekend with same slowly does it approach.
The thing with only three bets or so you could end up with loss if only one up but the next four or five all placed and you left them.
I mean today there was a 72% profit on level bets but only risked 12% of bank so i think i could heave been a little more adventurist and risked 20 % as your sure to get half it back even on bad day.
The big question is do you wait till you double bank then up stakes or do you bet 20% of bank every day no matter what.
Early stages so will tick along over weekend with same stakes see how it goes.
gerry
Mare
Well i thought today would tell me alot with so much racing on a saturday and i tend not to do as well on saturdays.
But since last sunday not had lossing day yet with lowest being 3% profit on bets total.
As you can see i have had days with alot of bets and some with less but the point is not being to greedy and if i can get over 1/2 4places i am happy with it although in general its 3 places some time you have to cope with 2 places but you need feel extra confident it will place or leave it.
So today i felt even studying them it would be a challange to feel as confident but i was happy with even the slightest profit on saturday so how did i do.
Well after i had wrote them all down i had 22 bets marked but one was none runner so that left me with 21 place bets for the day.
I must admit that was alot but with the principle of not being greedy there not big prices and they are fancied to go close in my eyes i would be happy doing anything over breaking even as every step gives you confidence its working.
I got 15 out of 21 placing which was good and showed a profit on todays bets of 35%.
Out of the 21 horses only 1 won today which would have showed a loss of 80% on the day.
As i have said before there is slight differances you make in studying them for place than to win.
And look at the differance i am sure i would have had more winners than 1 studying them for winning but would still have lost i am sure.
So all in the day it was nice seeing bank rise again instead of up and down mainly down and i am hoping this continues on same vain.
But since last sunday not had lossing day yet with lowest being 3% profit on bets total.
As you can see i have had days with alot of bets and some with less but the point is not being to greedy and if i can get over 1/2 4places i am happy with it although in general its 3 places some time you have to cope with 2 places but you need feel extra confident it will place or leave it.
So today i felt even studying them it would be a challange to feel as confident but i was happy with even the slightest profit on saturday so how did i do.
Well after i had wrote them all down i had 22 bets marked but one was none runner so that left me with 21 place bets for the day.
I must admit that was alot but with the principle of not being greedy there not big prices and they are fancied to go close in my eyes i would be happy doing anything over breaking even as every step gives you confidence its working.
I got 15 out of 21 placing which was good and showed a profit on todays bets of 35%.
Out of the 21 horses only 1 won today which would have showed a loss of 80% on the day.
As i have said before there is slight differances you make in studying them for place than to win.
And look at the differance i am sure i would have had more winners than 1 studying them for winning but would still have lost i am sure.
So all in the day it was nice seeing bank rise again instead of up and down mainly down and i am hoping this continues on same vain.
Almost Last
gerry
Mare
They were poor racing today
T
Thomas with to many races with small fields and the ones that would look at so short in odds was always going to be a difficult day for places.
That one you mentioned got a poor ride and made a couple errors early on and did run poor for sure.
Similar to RECORD HIGH in the next race although getting better than 1/2 two places does seem fair indeed with only four runners now depends how quick they go as a crawl can make it guess work at finish.
That one you mentioned got a poor ride and made a couple errors early on and did run poor for sure.
Similar to RECORD HIGH in the next race although getting better than 1/2 two places does seem fair indeed with only four runners now depends how quick they go as a crawl can make it guess work at finish.
gerry
Mare
Not as good racing today with plumpton off to but still might be little place money to be made, and first time with one drifting out i am thinking of not sticking to the standard bet on them all and puting little less on that one as tight race anyway.
But lets hope i can keep going same way and i should not get downhearted if i get little loss as not happened yet.
PARK ANNONCIADE 4 35 AYR.
URBAN ROAD 5 00 WOLVERHAMPTON.
GUSTAV GRAVES 5 30 WOLVERHAMPTON.
BUSBY 7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON.
But lets hope i can keep going same way and i should not get downhearted if i get little loss as not happened yet.
PARK ANNONCIADE 4 35 AYR.
URBAN ROAD 5 00 WOLVERHAMPTON.
GUSTAV GRAVES 5 30 WOLVERHAMPTON.
BUSBY 7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON.
JennyK
Gelding
Good luck with the 5.30,
gerry. I've spent quite a bit of time on it but found it difficult to rule any out with confidence.
If forced to bet, I think I'd go with the only 4yo but no wins in ten so far, and nine of them more or less today's class, doesn't excite.
I think the problem with races like the 5.30 is that the ability range is too compressed; seven of the ten within 10 points of each other on VDW's basic. Roll on some class 3s and 2s.
gerry. I've spent quite a bit of time on it but found it difficult to rule any out with confidence.If forced to bet, I think I'd go with the only 4yo but no wins in ten so far, and nine of them more or less today's class, doesn't excite.
I think the problem with races like the 5.30 is that the ability range is too compressed; seven of the ten within 10 points of each other on VDW's basic. Roll on some class 3s and 2s.
gerry
Mare
You where spot on
JennyK and i knew that race was to tight myself i think thats why i didnt like it at all and ended putting smaller bet on gustav than rest and i knew first one hadnt proved consistancy either so i felt it was dodgy so was small loss today over all and i felt that before hand so i need be a little bit more carefull and your right need those better class races.
JennyK and i knew that race was to tight myself i think thats why i didnt like it at all and ended putting smaller bet on gustav than rest and i knew first one hadnt proved consistancy either so i felt it was dodgy so was small loss today over all and i felt that before hand so i need be a little bit more carefull and your right need those better class races.
Chesham
Sire
Could be worth exploring horse run to form over last five races. Also include Trainer RTF and Jockey RTF . In the example below I have used TF Data. Think of the Horse RTF% as a different measure of Consistency. Similar to when I was Monster on the Peach Forum and highlighted Average OR for the Class Of Race as opposed to prize money. Although these days I use Median OR for race class
| Horse | Trainer | Trainer RTF% | Jockey | Jockey RTF% | Horse RTF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| She Went Whoosh (IRE) | Richard Hannon (Jnr) | 51.6% | Sean Levey | 59.3% | 60.0% |
| Auntie Jo | David O'Meara | 51.7% | Ben Robinson | 45.2% | 40.0% |
| Dubai Magic (IRE) | Matt Crawley | 43.1% | Hector Crouch | 61% | 40.0% |
| Addendum | John & Sean Quinn | 50% | Jason Hart | 60.9% | 33.3% |
| Sarafina Mshairi | Edward Smyth-Osbourne | 50% | Jack Doughty (3) | 51.4% | 75.0% |
| Elland Road Girl | Mike Murphy | 76.1% | Sean D Bowen | 54.8% | 33.3% |
| Woodhay Whisper (IRE) | Maxwell Young | 6.6% | Kieran T O'Neill | 35.6% | 40.0% |
| Pastoral Way | David O'Meara | 51.7% | C Horgan (5) | 0% | 33.3% |
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Chesham
Sire
Combine everything together
| Horse | Trainer | Trainer RTF% | Jockey | Jockey RTF% | Best NH Race Type | Adj. TFR (Peak) | Recent Race Form & Comments | Course/Distance Suitability | Going Preference | Pace Suitability | Today’s Race Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOYEN DU BAR (IRE) | Pauline Robson | 63%(Stable in form) | Brian Hughes | 71%(Riding well) | Chaser (2m – 2m4f+) | 138 | Beaten only 3¼ lengths last time (Sandown), previously won at Aintree & Ayr. Races prominently, responds well under pressure. | Ideal at 2m – 2m4f, proven at Aintree & Ayr. | Handles heavy/soft well. | Likes to race close up, benefits from prominent ride. | Most consistent recent form, trainer in form, jockey in top form. Strongest contender. |
| DANCE THIEF (IRE) | R. Mike Smith | 57%(Stable form OK) | Ben Smith (7lb claimer) | 48%(Mixed form) | Staying Chaser (2m4f – 3m) | 136 | Big win last time (7L) at Ayr, improving over fences.May need longer than 2m, prefers strong pace. | Stays 2½m well, best over further. | Best on soft/heavy, thrives in testing conditions. | Strong closer, benefits from a well-run race. | Trainer form fair, jockey inexperienced at this level. Could be a slight concern in tactical race. |
| BRUCIO (GB) | Stuart Crawford | 41%(Stable out of form) | D. E. Mullins | 55%(Average form) | Hurdler (2m – 2m4f) | 132 | Below form last two runs (5th & 13th), needs to rediscover best. Handles soft but prefers good ground. | Better suited to hurdles, lacks chase experience. | Soft but prefers good ground. | Held up, needs strong pace. | Trainer out of form, jockey form average. Not in best form, least likely winne |
gerry
Mare
That is exsactly what i do
Chesham i look at them in form and i see how jockey and trainer are doing if between two.
I have 12 things i think are important that i feel covers just about all angles but do it all old fashioned reading form and pen and paper.
There was one yesterday that covered just about every thing and you could have said nemeans lion was good thing.
As
JennyK said better class racing.
Infact what i was doing although read form all my life and if where a study of form like most are on here anyway the VDW wasnt really that much of a mystery anyway just was matter of putting things in place.
The consistancy and the way he done it with all the figures thing just confused people and didnt make logic but most of his theory is sound form picking.
What i had found out was if you wait for good things it takes time to find them and might get one or two a week but as i pushed it and bet more i was discounting certain parts of the 12 things to get maybe half a dozen a day and i found out the amount of times they place was really high.
Because i was betting them as cover bets first 2 or 3 places and the amount of times i had n/r wrote in my book was incredible thats what i wrote if they placed.
And you did know if they where good things to although alot less of them patience was they key there.
So i think if i check all 12 components and make sure there crossed well at least 10 that would be the balance between the two to have enough bets a day yet not to much even today i knew i should only have had a bet on urban road but got greedy and made me a small loss ok busby won later and was beat by urban road so i might have been tempted with that but i generally dont like classified races.
Chesham i look at them in form and i see how jockey and trainer are doing if between two.I have 12 things i think are important that i feel covers just about all angles but do it all old fashioned reading form and pen and paper.
There was one yesterday that covered just about every thing and you could have said nemeans lion was good thing.
As
JennyK said better class racing.Infact what i was doing although read form all my life and if where a study of form like most are on here anyway the VDW wasnt really that much of a mystery anyway just was matter of putting things in place.
The consistancy and the way he done it with all the figures thing just confused people and didnt make logic but most of his theory is sound form picking.
What i had found out was if you wait for good things it takes time to find them and might get one or two a week but as i pushed it and bet more i was discounting certain parts of the 12 things to get maybe half a dozen a day and i found out the amount of times they place was really high.
Because i was betting them as cover bets first 2 or 3 places and the amount of times i had n/r wrote in my book was incredible thats what i wrote if they placed.
And you did know if they where good things to although alot less of them patience was they key there.
So i think if i check all 12 components and make sure there crossed well at least 10 that would be the balance between the two to have enough bets a day yet not to much even today i knew i should only have had a bet on urban road but got greedy and made me a small loss ok busby won later and was beat by urban road so i might have been tempted with that but i generally dont like classified races.
JennyK
Gelding
Nothing for me today and not a lot tomorrow, but I've found the 6.00 Kempton interesting, especially Tiger Crusade, one I imagine you'll be considering for a place tomorrow,
gerry.
Tiger Crusade is one of the minority of horses with a substantial difference between its official ratings on the aw and turf, in his case he is currently rated 9lb higher than on the aw.
Now an 8yo, the evidence suggests, as one would expect, that he is regressing. Over the current and last four years his best winning performances on the aw, and place performances where he didn't win, have been:
5yo 24/07/22, class 258, AOR 92.8, OR 97, 4th, beaten 1.8l
6yo 18/02/23, class 132, AOR 89.4, OR 95, won.
7yo 28/04/24, class 148, AOR 87.5, OR 95, 4th, beaten 2.6l
8yo 07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, won.
He ended his turf season last year on 19/09/24, and resumed on the aw in December.
04/12/24, class 80, AOR 85.1, OR 83, 3rd, beaten 2.3l, sf 24
18/12/24, class 129, AOR 89.3, OR 82, 3rd, beaten 0.8l, sf 48
ie what VDW described as "that classic give away of improvement in higher class". Next time out:
07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, so dropped a lot on both class indicators, and won.
For tomorrow's race we see what seems a broadly similar pattern:
31/01/25, class 49, AOR 80.0, OR 85, 5th, beaten 3.3l.
12/02/25, class 134, AOR 93.7, OR 85, 4th, beaten 0.9l
26/02/25, class 63, AOR 81.2, OR 85
On the two class indicators, an improvement when massively raised in class on 12/02/25, and tomorrow an almost equally large drop. But how safe is it to think we will see a similar result, ie a win?
The problem, I think, is whether the 12/02/25 performance was genuinely a similar kind of improvement to that between 04/12/24 and 18/12/24.
Then, on
TheBluesBrother's sfs, we saw an increase from 24 to 48. Between the 31/01/25 and 12/02/25 performances we see a sharp reduction, from 54 to 17. The winner of that race only achieved a sf of 33, so we had a slower run race and Tiger Crusade carrying a relatively low weight, 8.08, down over a stone from 31/01/25. Tomorrow he is up a stone again.
I think the sfs will prove useful indicators here, and am inclined to assess Tiger Crusade leaving his last run rather in abeyance. If one does that, the pattern looks:
07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, sf 48
31/01/25, class 49, AOR 80.0, OR 85, 5th, beaten 3.3l, sf 54
26/02/25, class 63, AOR 81.2, OR 85
This seems to me to call Tiger Crusade's prospects tomorrow into question. On 31/02/35 he was raised a bit on class on an AOR basis, and put in a better run on sfs, but off a 3lb higher OR he was unable even to place, though the Post's comments don't suggest any problems in running. He was raised from 6f on 07/01/25 to 7f 31/01/25, and his seemingly better run on 12/02/25 was back over 6f. But his record over the last 3+ years suggests he is equally good over both distances and tomorrow he is up to 7f again.
My conclusion is that tomorrow does not look like the situation on 07/01/25, and I am sceptical of the apparent improvement in higher class on 12/02/25. Whereas there was a strong case for Tiger Crusade on 07/01/25, I don't think there is the same case tomorrow, and given that the race is slightly higher in class than that on 31/01/25 where he didn't make the first three, not only is he not a win bet for me, I don't see him as a sure thing for a place.
gerry.Tiger Crusade is one of the minority of horses with a substantial difference between its official ratings on the aw and turf, in his case he is currently rated 9lb higher than on the aw.
Now an 8yo, the evidence suggests, as one would expect, that he is regressing. Over the current and last four years his best winning performances on the aw, and place performances where he didn't win, have been:
5yo 24/07/22, class 258, AOR 92.8, OR 97, 4th, beaten 1.8l
6yo 18/02/23, class 132, AOR 89.4, OR 95, won.
7yo 28/04/24, class 148, AOR 87.5, OR 95, 4th, beaten 2.6l
8yo 07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, won.
He ended his turf season last year on 19/09/24, and resumed on the aw in December.
04/12/24, class 80, AOR 85.1, OR 83, 3rd, beaten 2.3l, sf 24
18/12/24, class 129, AOR 89.3, OR 82, 3rd, beaten 0.8l, sf 48
ie what VDW described as "that classic give away of improvement in higher class". Next time out:
07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, so dropped a lot on both class indicators, and won.
For tomorrow's race we see what seems a broadly similar pattern:
31/01/25, class 49, AOR 80.0, OR 85, 5th, beaten 3.3l.
12/02/25, class 134, AOR 93.7, OR 85, 4th, beaten 0.9l
26/02/25, class 63, AOR 81.2, OR 85
On the two class indicators, an improvement when massively raised in class on 12/02/25, and tomorrow an almost equally large drop. But how safe is it to think we will see a similar result, ie a win?
The problem, I think, is whether the 12/02/25 performance was genuinely a similar kind of improvement to that between 04/12/24 and 18/12/24.
Then, on
TheBluesBrother's sfs, we saw an increase from 24 to 48. Between the 31/01/25 and 12/02/25 performances we see a sharp reduction, from 54 to 17. The winner of that race only achieved a sf of 33, so we had a slower run race and Tiger Crusade carrying a relatively low weight, 8.08, down over a stone from 31/01/25. Tomorrow he is up a stone again.I think the sfs will prove useful indicators here, and am inclined to assess Tiger Crusade leaving his last run rather in abeyance. If one does that, the pattern looks:
07/01/25, class 50, AOR 78.2, OR 82, sf 48
31/01/25, class 49, AOR 80.0, OR 85, 5th, beaten 3.3l, sf 54
26/02/25, class 63, AOR 81.2, OR 85
This seems to me to call Tiger Crusade's prospects tomorrow into question. On 31/02/35 he was raised a bit on class on an AOR basis, and put in a better run on sfs, but off a 3lb higher OR he was unable even to place, though the Post's comments don't suggest any problems in running. He was raised from 6f on 07/01/25 to 7f 31/01/25, and his seemingly better run on 12/02/25 was back over 6f. But his record over the last 3+ years suggests he is equally good over both distances and tomorrow he is up to 7f again.
My conclusion is that tomorrow does not look like the situation on 07/01/25, and I am sceptical of the apparent improvement in higher class on 12/02/25. Whereas there was a strong case for Tiger Crusade on 07/01/25, I don't think there is the same case tomorrow, and given that the race is slightly higher in class than that on 31/01/25 where he didn't make the first three, not only is he not a win bet for me, I don't see him as a sure thing for a place.
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gerry
Mare
This is my take on todays racing first of all
JennyK dead right rubbish racing and what can we do but look.
Anyway there is only 4 horses i would even look at today and there not great value but in with some kind of shout.
TREATY BOY 3 00 CATTERICK. this horse has been running at testing tracks for while now and it belongs here at this easier track so looks a clear get solid fit for winning this. looks like it has done enough leading to show it will go well . This is first time since first race this trainer has run it easy track.
ASA 5 00 CATTERICK i took chance on this horse over hurdles last time it won as looked improving type over chases and it won as it liked and even up some i think will be hard to beat again.
SISTERS IN THE SKY 7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON r ryan has sat on this horse 4 times over 6 fur at wolver 4321 thats his stats on it so i think he slowly has found his way to ride it coming from of pace not great draw so i think will sit it behind and come late as he did on win and could get place.
CHARLATAN 7 30 WOLVERHAMPTON this one the trainer admited dosnt find alot yet won enough to show it can win.
has got pretty consistant infact only thing you would even worry about this one not placing is the weight it carries and thats why the 7lb claimer is crucial on it. looks solid place material but again its all about the odds .
JennyK dead right rubbish racing and what can we do but look.Anyway there is only 4 horses i would even look at today and there not great value but in with some kind of shout.
TREATY BOY 3 00 CATTERICK. this horse has been running at testing tracks for while now and it belongs here at this easier track so looks a clear get solid fit for winning this. looks like it has done enough leading to show it will go well . This is first time since first race this trainer has run it easy track.
ASA 5 00 CATTERICK i took chance on this horse over hurdles last time it won as looked improving type over chases and it won as it liked and even up some i think will be hard to beat again.
SISTERS IN THE SKY 7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON r ryan has sat on this horse 4 times over 6 fur at wolver 4321 thats his stats on it so i think he slowly has found his way to ride it coming from of pace not great draw so i think will sit it behind and come late as he did on win and could get place.
CHARLATAN 7 30 WOLVERHAMPTON this one the trainer admited dosnt find alot yet won enough to show it can win.
has got pretty consistant infact only thing you would even worry about this one not placing is the weight it carries and thats why the 7lb claimer is crucial on it. looks solid place material but again its all about the odds .
gerry
Mare
Will be interesting if i have anything for that race
JennyK tomorrow will look later today but there is one thing i found that i dont do alot i tried it so many times and i feel its hit and miss.
And that is when studying form of a past race looking to see how they all done in that race wether they behind or infront improved after it and i found so many times it didnt matter as every horse is indivdual and they can be off form or improving and it just dosnt give clear light to form not always but alot of the time so i like to merit the race in question as if before hand and judge it that way.
JennyK tomorrow will look later today but there is one thing i found that i dont do alot i tried it so many times and i feel its hit and miss.And that is when studying form of a past race looking to see how they all done in that race wether they behind or infront improved after it and i found so many times it didnt matter as every horse is indivdual and they can be off form or improving and it just dosnt give clear light to form not always but alot of the time so i like to merit the race in question as if before hand and judge it that way.