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Horses with chance.

Were I do be betting today, I think it would be on Gogo Yubari in the 6.00 Wolverhampton.

Back to her last winning mark, has won over course and trip, is well-drawn and she showed improvement lto when raised in class. Now dropped in class (VDW penalty value) and running in a lower class field than either of her last two: 64.6 cf 69.4 and 71.0. Downside, for me, is that she is a filly.
 
JennyK said:
For those of us exclusively or primarily concerned with flat racing, the last few weeks have been somewhat dire. No shortage of races most days, but largely of very low quality, Newcastle on Friday a welcome exception.

Personally, I've found it difficult to enthuse about the chance to look at yet another class 6 or, on a better day, class 5. Hopefully the time spent on research rather than analyses of such races will prove to have been well spent in the longer term.
Click to expand...
Fair comment Jenny, I've been trawling through mediocre racing basically since new years day, and it's not pretty.
Patience is a virtue, and Patience is what is required at the moment.

I sometimes despair at the human condition. I watched the Stella Hogan race yesterday, and although not involved, I cringed for Jason Watson during and after the race. It was to my mind a terrible misjudged ride, by an average imo jockey.

The tirade of abuse and aspertions fired at him on "X", was absolutely outrageous imo. The ride was incompetent and his indecisiveness, obviously caused by the runaway leader,and subsequent winner, was very notable.

However it didn't warrant the attack on his character, that he got. I consider him like the vast majority of the jockeys riding at the moment as average, and that's why mistakes like this will continue to happen, not because of any skullduggery on their part, in the main.
 
Jason Watson as a Jockey had the highest Timeform Run To Form % in the race (62%) and the Trainer 40%

TF post race Commemt

STELLA HOGAN (IRE) was all the rage in the betting just 5 days on from C&D win and looked unlucky not to follow up; held up, travelled well, shaken up over 1f out, still plenty to do soon after, finished well and never nearer, conceded first run; she's surely capable of winning more races for current yard and is one to note
 
I didn't watch any races yesterday, not even the one I was interested in (6.00 Wolv) because I got too absorbed with watching the Inaugaration. But never having sat on a horse, I don't feel inclined to criticise jockeys.

Whenever I've seen a race from the point of view of a jocky cam it looks awfully fast, and they have to make more or less instant decisions, without the opportunity of a rewind and second go. I am sure they make errors of judgement, as we all do, but those seem to me to be part and parcel of the risk in betting.

On the flat, where there is precious little chance of falling, unseating or being brought down, when I back a loser my immediate reaction is to blame myself. And with hindsight I can quite often see reasons why betting on X was foolish. Fortunately with Gogo Yubari yesterday, I could see it beforehand - young filly taking on mainly older colts and geldings, having her fourth run in three weeks. Connections pushing their luck there.

Not a sprint of betting interest to me today, alas, despite a number of familiar "old stagers". Whether Athollblair Boy (5.15 Newcastle) can win as a 12yo, I am not sure. He won twice as an early-season 11yo and connections presumably think he is worth keeping in training. I'll have my fingers metaphorically crossed for him, but certainly won't be putting any money at risk.
 
One horse that interested me this evening is EMPIRESTATEOFMIND in the 5 35 newcastle.
The reason i think its interesting is it run over 7fur in its first ever race then never ran that short again which would tell you needs at least a mile.
And on breeding you would guess a mile is perfect but it just seems to get home and possibly a stiff 7 fur would be ideal.
And it hasnt ran in anything this low since 20 races ago and that was here at newcastle where run second.
So why would you wait so long to try 7fur with same trainer surely he knows it well .
So i feel there is 2 reasons one run it shorter to get more weight of or they thing this could be ideal and they have had many chances to use shorter to run it behind but never have so i have came to the idea they are giving it ago.
It won at york over a mile not long ago just holding on so i feel this is perfect 7fur for it.
stable doing well and j hart is flying at moment.
 
I think in some ways, a small highlight of the day can be when you looked at a race and decided there was nothing you could see worth backing, and the result confirms it. For example, I had a look at the Wol 16:50 last night, thought it looked a horrible race, with the original fav probably over-rated in the betting, so left it alone. No way could I have found the winner.

I've done the same with the 19:50, in fact I looked at it twice, and both times came to the conclusion NO BET.
 
Well empirestateofmind was deffinatlly a trier in second thought was going to win for minute.
Back to today i could see how every one would leave them today but there is one that interests me for little bet its HOPE HILL 1 40 sedgefield.
This horse run ok last couple of races in summer but with stable going so well i think they must think it can handle the ground.
On breeding you would feel might be to soft for it but i think must be going well at home and the main thing is they could not have found a easier race for it and its not the kind of race to get run in down the field as i think that would possibly be harder to do than win in this.
 
Been a little while with poor racing but the four that look like have chance today .
BALHAMBER 2 17 MUSSELBURGH.
MARBLE SANDS 2 50 MUSSELBURGH.
BOOMSLANG 3 57 MUSSELBURGH.
MR BRAMLEY 2 43 WETHERBY.
 
One winner wasnt great for sure.Four for today with slight twist on them see how they do.
SURREY QUEST 2 25 MUSSELBURGH.
DOYEN QUEST 3 00 MUSSELBURGH.
EL FABIOLO 2 10 LEOPARDSTOWN.
PINKERTON 2 45 LEOPARDSTOWN.
 
Been messing about lately with things but not as good so back to my solid form study which i think is the most basic yet wise thing to do in horse racing.
I had a good think last night and the most natural thing i could come up with after thinking about all sort of results lately.
Is it is easier to put a dark horse in a race full of poor horses , or one where your horse is dark horse with no handicap to note of and is well in but would need start in a reasonable weak race to be sure.
So that said yes you could pull a dark hors out the bag for sure in weaker races.
But i think thats why in general your main bets should be in well documented form races which will tend to be higher class range where there nothing really hidden just a matter of study and see what we come up with.
So that all said the horse i like today for that reason is FLEGMATIC 3 25 KEMPTON.
This horse has never run for long time as low mark as this and now down to winning mark in race it should run very close.
There is couple others in with there mark to run really well to but nothing as clear as this one and i think should go very close with kempton form and run well last time and blinkers tried today.
 
The thing with this race is you always worry about horses running well at the moment but the second fav form el rio is no where near this horses form and there could be a couple bigger price horses who could fill f/cast crebilly and triple trade but i think mine is solid chance exspecially at this track.
 
Just shows with el rio winning it you just cant discount horses running to form or improving.
Again it shows that current form is crucial part of horse running well even when they class looks to much the current form can step you closer.
So possibly really current form and best in class is two big steps to look for so far.
 
So with that said there nothing sticks out in both form and class together heres what i see today .
NAVAJO INDY 3 35 NEWBURY. inform but this is a step up in class value .
HERAKLES WESTWOOD 4 10 NEWBURY. running well and similar class but mark has went up for win.
LE MILOS 3 15 WARWICK. run well and similar class mark down should go close.
PANIC ATTACK 3 48 WARWICK. this one is drop in class and going well same mark but it was chase and this hurdle.
HUNTERS LEGEND 2 48 UTTOXETER. up in class and mark but is in flying form bit like el rio yesterday.
EL GRANJERO 3 23 UTTOXETER. same class and run close last time will higher mark stop it.
 
After continued thought on horse racing there is a few things i have came to the conclusion are more important and others.
I know we all have good idea of what to look for when sudying form, But we all struggle at times with what is the most important factors to place in our study.
I think that class is without doubt is what seperates one horse from other, and thats what we can use to seperate some kind of good form with other good form the class makes them differant.
Then we have consistancy that how often can one horse keep running to same level where as some just run up and down and are hard to catch right.
But along with consistancy we have the current up to date form and i think this is where there might be more attention needed.
As we tend to look at maybe the last three races and think this is current form and we decide if consistant or not and should we forgive last bad run.
This is where i think we make most mistakes because when you relise that horses take breaks of anything up to a month off between races is there third last race or even there second last race current form when it could be 2 or 3 months ago.
So maybe current form is anything in last 30 days max and even that isnt current form in reality but its what we have in horse racing.
So consistancy is a longer period analysing that can give you confidence it could produce again and not in forgivness of a poor last run.
Then you have the daily changing in going which is really important as the horse could have run a month ago in compleatly differant going and that should be checked for sure.
Then we have the big question of horses coming up the ranks with little racing are they improvers or not which just clouds every thing.
Well i thought of this to and what i keep going back to is the novices at cheltenham for instance.
We see these races before they are run and they are full of winners and we get excited what a race but the reality is there usually not very good at all most of them and thats proves year after year.
So infact most horses we put to much credit on them improving when infact there just beating nothing really.
And good solid better class horses with form in the book will more likely to run there race than so called dark horses.
So i would say dont underestimate last run could be the most crucial thing in racing.
 
Good post Gerry, a novice that springs to mind for me (and everyone else going by the betting), is Kopek Des Bordes , to me this horse was visually impressive, often the death knell for punters, but in this case it looks like he will back up the last three performances.

He started favourite for all three of his races,and to start odds on, for his hurdling debut at a festival meeting indicates that the horse is very highly regarded , and the manner of his victories has been very impressive, both visually and on the clock.

The price is not appealing and the ground may be a concern,being French bred and all his form so far has been on testing ground, but as Lee said tge trainer takes care of that.
 
"Latest form must mean two things, the last performance of a horse and a recent outing at that. Not something in the dim and distant past."

"Form of more than two months ago is, in my opinion, suspect."

Sentiments written seventy-five years ago.

While they, and your own view, gerry gerry, make a lot of sense as general propositions, the problems we face every day are specific. Race type/distance is an obvious factor - one expects sprinters to run more frequently than chasers. But also trainers, some of whom seem more able to have horses at their peak without recent runs, as VDW had clearly noticed with a horse called Rifle Brigade, trained by Jeremy Hindley.

Still, if it were too easy, there wouldn't be any betting and no chance for the more skillful to make money from it!
 
There is no way to be sure you get winners but lets see if it would through many up with quick guide to tomorrow.
15 singles all level 10pound at sp=150.
HAYDOCK 12 55 JIPCOT. *
HAYDOCK 2 05 THE FLIER BEGLEY.*
HAYDOCK 2 40 BEAUPORT.***
HAYDOCK 3 15 YEAH MAN.
HAYDOCK 3 50 DERRYHASSEN PADDY.
WINCANTON 1 03 DIESEL LINE.
WINCANTON 1 36 BURDETT ROAD. **
WINCANTON 2 15 THUNDER N LIGHTNING.*
WINCANTON 3 25 RISK DE PLUIE.
WINCANTON 4 00 PEDLEY WOOD.*
ASCOT 1 15 DUBROVNIK HARRY.
ASCOT 1 50 JINGKO BLUE.
ASCOT 2 25 ALTOBELLI.
ASCOT 3 00 VICTORINO.
ASCOT 3 37 L' HOMME PRESSE.

I gave stars for droping in class and weight and right distance, droping in class being a must.
 
I tried place only betting today on the mainly first four market couple first three markets and one first two market.
I got 11 place bets up from 13 races only 2 beat and at first it looks really good.
With a 50 percent profit on the day you would take that every day and be delighted.
And i would take a slow enjoyable build of profit every day with small wins.

But here is my main worry although was first 4 market mainly and every chance i could get alot up studying form and 50 percent sounds good it would only have took 2 or 3 more to not place to take all the profit away think on the day depends the races ofcourse that 8 out of 13 would have been touch and go to be even for day.
All the ticks next to my winning bets look good but i would have classified 11 as very good day and suppose 50 percent was but is it realistic i am not sure.
Maybe poor racing was weak odds today and you could do profit in higher odds races what do people think.
 
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