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Horses with chance.

gerry said:
What i have noticed in the last few days is there has been a couple of horses gambled to fav who have absolutely no form well worse than that they have form but its shocking to say the least hardly beating a horse home yet they come out and win.
So all this does is verify that you can get a horse who is poor to improve enough to win a low class race against a load of rubbish horses.
Yet you could have studied the race and thought you have found the best form and it ends up second to the gamble.
But i would think for sure it would be harder to get a horse to beat better animals with no reasonable form on the board from some where.
Which just makes it logical and proves i think what we have been saying all along that the better the race the better the chance of form working out.

I do tend to make sure there is decent form in a race before i would make it valid for selection but i think i do need to put some sort of automatic limit in a race.
I was going to make it a limit of 5000 price money. Which makes it easy to by pass most of the racing exspecially midweek racing where most is rubbish anyway.
Take tomorrow for one the best race falls just short of that price money and the favourite is TIGER CRUSADE and its easy to see why run twice at wolverhampton a 52k race and a 39k race running close in both of marks of 96 and 88 now of 82 and had wide draw in both now decent draw and running way down in class its easy to see why this horse is getting gambled in.
So the question i am asking my self is do you go lower if the horse has better form in higher than 5k races or stick to races above 5k which would mean this is no bet.
This horse has never run below 5k since its first ever run which means 39 races above that and winning 7 times.
Then you have JUST A SPARK who has to give it a lb as this horse has also dropped in class, I see some money has came for this to at decent price.
But on this ones journey it has run in lower class races more but also only run 4 times at wolverhampton and won 3 times here, so seems to suit it but the highest mark was 82 winning at kempton of 83 tomorrow so this ones mark a little higher.
But i think thats easier to just look at this one race as rest are to low and not worth bothering about.
They are drawn right next to each other and i think tiger will kick in to be covered up and thats where the problems occure in this all weather racing do they get a run or not.
But i think its a interesting race to watch to see what happens with these two horses is tiger a good thing or is spark a better value e/w bet.
Or is it just a race where you say under 5k so leave alone.
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Gerry I doubt 5k is a high enough water mark for most owners - you need something where the prize money outweighs or is at least equal to the gamble , with liquidity in the bookies market dropping you would would think that there would be an equalling out between prize money and the “risk” values - £10,000 would my be thoughts about real intent to win a race.
 
I agree with you, gerry gerry, that the 7.00 Wolverhampton today is an interesting race, but essentially it offers the same challenge as many. We have older horses likely to be regressive, a young horse who might, or might not, prove to be progressive, and the rest five and six year olds who might be either. The challenge is in part judging how each horse's career to date matches the situation it now faces.

Take That's For Sure, the 4yo. He won a relatively valuable maiden on his second run, which accounts for his being top of the VDW ability ratings for today's race, though with a poor speed figure. Connections obviously thought he might be something, as next time out he went to Ireland and went off favourite in a much higher class race but finished well down the field. Second in that race was another horse trained by the same trainer, K Burke, who had finished just behind him when he won.

Then followed other down-the-field runs in a class 1475 at York and a class 116 Doncaster nursery.

Then off the track for well over a year, before returning for two class 50s late last year.

So what to make of him? I think it would be easier were he individually owned, as it would be reasonable to assume that his initial promise was, in his or her eyes, still there after, presumably, some health setback after the Doncaster run. And although the two recent runs don't at face value support that idea, the Post's comments on them are not wholly without an element of hope. But he is not individually-owned, which in my eyes clouds things.

Today That's For Sure should be fitter, the drop in trip and move to an easier track may help, and presumably to try to address the fact that he ducked right at the start of both his last races he wears blinkers for the first time. He is also getting weight from every other runner, quite a lot from the two you mention. IF the hope it would have been reasonable to have after his 2yo win, and the money spent keeping him in training, prove well judged, That's For Sure has to be able to win a race of today's class or better this year. But the hope may be misplaced and the money spent may have been wasted. I can't see any way of reaching a view - yet.

I agree with you that Tiger Crusade and Just A Spark are plausible. Tiger Crusade is the kind of horse VDW liked, raised in class lto to 129 from 80, average OR 89.3 from 85.1, and showed improvement (including on sfs). Now dropped to class 50, average OR 78.1. A decent chance. Just A Spark was well beaten lto by Tiger Crusade but something of a case can be made for him, too, based on his early 2024 form and his age.

Analytically an interesting race but one I'll be happy just to watch.
 
When contemplating risking our wedge comfort zones can play a part and this involves knowing yourself as well as why horses win or lose races. So gerry gerry i would say if you feel more comfortable betting in races worth 5k > then great and implement the thinking.

All i would add is do you have past records of your betting profitability in below 5k races to compare with bets in above 5k contests. I ask because sometimes a change made based on some recent poor results can be questioned in light of a longer term look.
 
Well what i will say mick mick is when i was working the time was limited for midweek study so i did tend to only bet in better races where the horses showed better form and wasnt to interested in the weaker races.
But with so much racing there is alot of poor horses running and now plenty time on hands you do tend to glide through most races and there always something that looks with chance but the more i have delved into it what i have found is the better races my horses run at least better and show up alot closer at the finish as we will never get every winner we are at least looking for a run for our money shows that were on good lines of thinking.
But the ones that run really poorly are always ones where i say why did i bet that in such a poor race.
I do write every horse done on paper and pen yet so its easy to glide through and check and get the feeling where going wrong.
And having bet horses for 50 years now as you will well know there is a inner memory we have that lets us know these things.
I find its easy to see that there is to much dross running now.
Not enough class races and i mean class handicaps mainly as i am not to keen on group races.
Seems to be a saturday only sport in some ways now.
The reason i picked this race out is it was the only class 4 race of the day and maybe its still using the class of race the way to tell differance.
On the light of a new day i have decided with the drift back to 9/4 to have a bet on
TIGER CRUSADE. using the class 4 as guide.
 
A couple of things I keep asking myself when looking at a race, is, how much emphasis, if any, should I put on market movers?

Is the market over-reacting to certain trainers that are well known to "farm" the handicap mark? (Market makers will likely have a list)
How much money does it actually take to move one? (Not much if a runner appears on the market makers watch list)
Nowadays, do the bookies really care about producing a book when they know they can restrict a punter? (I'd say they don't care so much)

Bill Benter improved his profits when using the live market as his starting point.

1736265313830.png

It doesn't say (I suppose it wouldn't) if he re-input the market moves steamers/drifters right up to the off time. I interpret, on what I've read elsewhere, is that he would use his own ratings, the resulting tissue combined with the opening market and then compare the price near the off time, deciding to bet using a staking plan. along with the exotic bets too.

I also agree that patience and deciding when to bet, is the punters best edge, as it was 50+ years ago.
 
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JennyK said:
T Thomas, gerry gerry

The 6.35 Southwell today was interesting from the betting perspective you've referred to recently, and also for another reason.

For quite a long time today, the market had the race between three, more or less level in prices, Many A Star, Ormolulu and Rebel Empire. And maybe fifteen minutes before the off one could get around 4.6 on Betfair for each of them, with double figures for the rest.

In the last few minutes the market seemed to coalesce on Rebel Empire, who shorted considerably while the others lengthened. Having had a small bet on Rebel Empire before the shortening I was optimistic, but in the event Omolulu won and Many A Star was 3rd, Rebel Empire finishing well out of the frame.

That posed two questions. Why the market move, and why the disappointing performance by Rebel Empire (which was surely more than the "jockey dropped rein briefly over 1f out")?

My bet was based on the improvement Rebel Empire showed lto on my ratings and the view that if he ran as well today as he did then, he would likely win. I had also watched the race on 31/12/24, in which Rebel Empire's performance was visually impressive, and I note that both the Post's TS and RPR figures showed that race as improved form. Presumably these latter facts, combined with the visual impression on 31/12/24, may have underpinned at least some of the market move.

I have recently been adding TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's sfs into my analyses and today they tempered my support for Rebel Empire in terms of stake. But arguably they should have done more than that, because on his figures the last run was far from the palpable improvement on the previous one that my ratings and the two in the Post suggested. His sfs suggested caution, while the Post's TS figures played into the picture both my ratings and the RPR ones suggested.

Although late market moves often prove well-founded, often is not always and when, as today, such a move doesn't, it may well be possible to see why not, as I think in this case it is, courtesy of TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's figures, for which many thanks.
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Good post Jenny K,

It's a fine art isn't it. If every horse that drifted before the off lost,and each that were backed won,then there would be no betting, but I get you're point.

The all weather by it's nature in the main, caters for lower class horses. VDW recommended to stick to the better class races. The lower class horses are inconsistent and there in lies the problem .

A trainer I know described one of his horses (who had won 5 or 6 races one season, between the flat and NH) as a "good bad one".

I didn't know what he meant at the time,but subsequently it made sense to me
 
VDW did indeed, T Thomas, but he advised some flexibility. Taking the most valuable race at a meeting is one thing, but if the general level of prize money there is low ..... For example, downloading some results today I noticed that on 01/01/25 every race at Cheltenham was worth double or more the best at Catterick.

"... lower class horses are inconsistent." I wonder if that is really the case, and of course it depends on what one means both by lower class and consistent.

I only analyse handicaps, which some might regard as by definition lower class. Taking handicappers, because they are all I know about, one of my favourites over the last few years is Bergerac, now a 7yo.

He has run in about forty and won seven and even off his current rating of 91 is in handicapper terms one of the better ones.

He won his final race of 2023, off 90, and last year ran down the field seven times before winning his eighth, placings being 8/5/5/5/6/9/8. Is that consistent? Only, I would say, in a very particular and not very useful sense - always in the first ten. And it is the same with his ratings. The Post TS and RPR figures for those seven show significant ups and downs, as do mine. But in his three "prime" years age-wise he won two handicaps a year and one last year as a 6yo, which I would argue shows consistency in a different sense.

In the 7.00 today, where the runners were typically rated low to mid 70s with a few low 80s, one can see much the same. Horses like Just A Spark, Lady Dreamer and Monsieur Kodi have each won at least once a year over the last two or three with, like Bergerac, plenty of down-the-fields along the way.

The structure of handicaps makes it very difficult for a horse to run up a string of wins. Mostly it is a question of dealing with a rise in the relative weights after a win, and obviously age is pertinent - a younger horse being more likely to be progressive and able to take a rise in its stride, as it were. Bergerac won two consecutive handicaps as a 4yo and as a 5yo, and all three of those I mentioned in today's 7.00 have won consecutively, too. (Indeed as a 4yo Just A Spark won three in a row.) I think it is hard to argue that the lower class horses, as assessed on their ORs, are less consistent than Bergerac on this particular view of consistent, and I am guessing that most owners of handicappers would be well pleased with a couple of wins a year.

The skill of the successful analyst, certainly of handicaps, is I think being able to recognise which runners' age and career profiles and form (exposed or less obvious) match the cirumstances of the race being analysed, be it a class 2 handicap or lower. And in this, the all weather offers some advantages - TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's comment about Newcastle recently notwithstanding, the going has less variation than on the turf and runners have often run on the course concerned before, showing to an extent how they take to its characteristics.
 
Droping no more than class 4 there is two tomorrow on all weather who look like they have chance.
ZORAN in the 8 00 kempton has a decent level of consistancy and has decent form at this track only once being unplaced and that was 41k race so can be forgiven but at this class it has big chance and mark is about right to.
The other one is at newcastle 2 33 AL FARABI this horse ran for first time over 5 fur last time out which i find a bit wierd concidering its breeding.
Maybe they thought it was slow as youngster and could have been just backward and it looked like took pull so maybe all along this is what it wants although run a cracker in far better race at kempton over 6fur.
Draw could be a little worry but i would think track should suit has run good on both atempts round here.
 
gerry said:
The other one is at newcastle 2 33 AL FARABI this horse ran for first time over 5 fur last time out which i find a bit wierd concidering its breeding.
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Al Farabi (OR 81) is the well handicapped horse running on the AW today according to my handicap ratings.

Another well in today is Saturnalia 19:00 Kempton.

AW.png

Mike.
 
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One for tommorow i think could have a decent chance is THE THAMES BOATMAN in the 2 20 lingfield run 4 times here winning 3.
And was going up in class each time so this is drop in class and with that run under belt could be ready to go in.
You could argue higher mark to over come but this is easier and i think will go well.
 
Well with lingfield off i have went and had a look at newcastle where there was nothing under class 5 but having quick look there is one who could be in with chance in the 5 15 DICKO THE LEGEND it ran here last time after a break for first time and done well in 4th , if it had had a recent run you could have fancied it to go well there if liking the track and now we know it does there is every chance will see more today.
I can see why they would drop it to 5fur here and could go close.
 
A tricky race Gerry, my problem with Dicko is I don't like horses being beaten by 33/1 shots lto, having said that I notice the money is coming all morning for him
 
Some decent racing for a change lately where we can have a bet had to go to all weather there for week which i am not keen doing.
Any way back to today and the horse that sticks out to me the most is ROYALE PAGAILLE 2 30 haydock.
This horse has ran 6 times round here winning 5 of them and second the one time when got cut and was still decent all though exscuses.
Every thing is perfect the track the going the distance and even the weight wont be to much bother.
I feel 15/8 is a decent price and should out class these horses.
Usually i have doubts for some reason but struggling to find any here.
 
If i had an other one for today i think would be ALTOBELLI 2 50 ascot this horse has run well twice round here and mark is same.
H Fry got one back to form yesterday so is fresh in mind, and i think this horse stepped back up in distance and first time cheeks is ideal.
On breeding not to old to show more than has yet and better ground will help to.
 
For those of us exclusively or primarily concerned with flat racing, the last few weeks have been somewhat dire. No shortage of races most days, but largely of very low quality, Newcastle on Friday a welcome exception.

Personally, I've found it difficult to enthuse about the chance to look at yet another class 6 or, on a better day, class 5. Hopefully the time spent on research rather than analyses of such races will prove to have been well spent in the longer term.
 
The racing has been poor and is hard to get up for it at times witrh the weather so poor but i think you can learn from any race and even if it is to understand why poor racing is so bad to bet on.
For instance things i have thought about lately is although some horses win after a break of maybe 6 month to year its not as commen as people would imagine and i dont think you can use that form to make selections.
I also noticed that although class is very important if not the most important but current good form of horses can bring the classes closer.
For instance a horse beaten less than 2 lengths or winning class 4 can be just as good as horse beaten 7l in class 3 so there is a balance of form with current decent form crucial prefer placed form as i think the weight carrying penalty for winning does make big differance too.
I also noticed the more weight carrying really does impact the horse some more than others depends size of horse i think.
Lets take V WILLIAMS for instance she seems i am not sure why to go for small horses who look like wont make chasers but they do.
Where as if you look at N SKELTONS he goes for big strapping horses who will make chasers in time and anything they do in hurdles a bonus i feel.
N HENDERSON he seems to go for horses who carry them self well more on looks than size.
If you look at P NICHOLS i think he is more inclind to take what he can now all shapes and sizes and there is a real mixed bag in his yard of late.
But i feel your looking first of all at horses who run well lately preferrably two races in row for bit of consistancy, who havnt gone up much in weight for it if dropped in class all the better have raced on going and track a bonus, and also a decent jockey can make the world of differance and i feel a 7lb claimer can really make you think twice of betting it as i dont think they risk that much on a fancied one but they can make right mess of it.
 
I work Flat only and do not mind betting in the class 6 AW Hcaps but this YTD despite doing plenty of looking i have yet to find one i wanted to back at the odds on offer. ! A little frustrating but so is backing a poor value loser. :eek:
 
Yeah for sure mick mick i am working hard on having less bets and more on ones i think will at least go very close.
Would sooner have no bet than a risky one who i knew i should have left alone.
I think thats why i feel decent current form is a must for me anyway, although i have noticed having that 7lb penalty can really stop horses on it tracks not less its just the trainers way of saying ok got the win lets work on its mark again.
 
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